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May 18, 2005
Sirius launching a 4th Satellite?
Some interesting information has come in about a the possibility of SIRIUS launching a 4th Satellite into orbit. This from Bear Stearns:
“There has been some concern recently about the implications of Sirius potentially launching its 4th satellite, which is already completely manufactured and flight ready and is in storage as a ground spare.
As the company has mentioned in the past, it could launch the satellite into a geostationary orbit. However, since it was originally constructed for elliptical orbit, it would have to be refurbished, which could take as much as 8-10 months to complete and could cost Sirius an additional $25-50 mn.
While not incorporated in our current projections, we think that this decision would be positive for the company in many ways, such as: 1) It would augment the reception of their signals to mobile and fixed devices, and 2) it would help insulate any service interruption should one of their current satellites fail.
The major impact on capex likely would include: (i) accelerated launch and insurance costs of $80-100 mn, (ii) cost of refurbishing of $25-50 mn, & (iii) accelerated buildout of a new ground spare that could cost about $100-125 mn. In aggregate, we think capex over the next year could be higher by $200-275 mn, that is not included in our current capex forecast. We assume negligible cost for TT&C. We note that this would merely be capex acceleration, except for refurbishing costs. However, due to potential timing of the capex coupled with any outperformance of gross adds, Sirius could potentially need to raise additional funds. Lastly we underscore the point that we don’t believe Sirius has made a definitive decision yet (although we expect one shortly). Hence, we maintain our Peer Perform.”
Translation:
While a decision hasn’t been made (or released), there’s a possibility of Sirius launching a 4th satellite into geostationary orbit as opposed to their current elliptical geosynchronous orbit. Bear Sterns likes this idea because it compliments the signal, but it’ll cost Sirius to convert the satellite to perform this way.
Very interesting indeed.
UPDATE: Had a great back and forth with a reader, and here’s some thoughts about the mechanics of all this.
Keep in mind that Sirius has 3 satellites in constant motion over the sky - 2 within range of the US at the same time. If Sirius were to launch a geostationary satellite, they would probably need to time it so that they drop the signal from a second orbiting satellite while it’s over the US. Each satellite must transmit on a unique frequency so it’s not overlapping with other satellites. So with a 4th geostationary satellite, Sirus could either kill power on a second satellite while it’s over the US, or use half of each geosynchronous bird’s resources and run the geostationary one at full tilt.
UPDATE 2: More on this from TheStreet.
May 18, 2005 01:01 PM
Comments
i would be happy if Sirius does this and it improves reception. I have used both xm and sirius, in my location xm got a better signal.
With xm I kept the antenna on the dash board and it was great. With Sirius I had to put the antenna on the roof of my car. Still the reception is not quite as good. But it is 'good enough'.
Posted by: Monmin at May 18, 2005 02:36 PM
I think what you had to say about Sirius and their reception says a whole lot about their technology, it isn't up to par with XM. It's obvious that they don't if they're planning on putting yet another satellite up in space! Pretty soon the whole place will be congested with satellites. XM has like what? only 2 or 3 satellites in space?
Posted by: Vic at May 18, 2005 09:05 PM
What if the 4th satellite, IF the rumors are true, is not for radio but for a future service?
Posted by: Anonymous at May 18, 2005 09:21 PM
Have any you been watching E3 on G4tv lately? You should be not only because of the games but maybe something that has to do with the XBox 360 and Satellite Radio. I noticed a glimpse on their menu that it contained the XM logo on it, no little doggie company logo on it! Do you realize how huge this could be for satellite radio? Especially since one of the Microsoft guys made the comment that it planned to attract up to a Billion, that's right a Billion on-line gamers. This is great for XM, the gameing industry is huge! And it's a great way to attract many new people. I'm not an XBox fan myself, but there are millions that are. I really thought the PS3 captuered the whole show this year with their preview of Kill Zone 3.
Do you know anything about XM radio on XBox 360 Ryan? Or how it's gonna work (pobably most likely like xm on-line is right now)?
Posted by: Vic at May 19, 2005 09:33 AM
The cost to modify SIRIUS-4 is up to $50 Million.
Cost to launch the Satellite is somehting like $75-$100 Million.
And don't forget that they need to get a 5th Satellite as a spare. You can understand why XM fought so hard to have insurance cover the costs of XM-3 and XM-4 launch (due to the imminent failure of XM-1 and XM-2).
Here's a problem to consider. XM uses geostationary satellites, and thus the signal in the more northern regions is weaker so they use more repeater towers (than SIRIUS) to augment the signal. What happens if/when SIRIUS launches a geostationary satellite? Will they need to build an additional set of repeater towers to support both systems?
Posted by: Ryan at May 19, 2005 10:07 AM
Re XBOX 360:
Every Xbox 360 will have Media Center Extender functionality built in and available out of the box. As a "Media Center Extender" you can pick up digital music, video, photos, and standard and HD television and movies on Media Center Edition 2005-based PCs through any Xbox 360 game console in the house.
Since XM Radio Online is available through MCE - http://www.orbitcast.com/archives/2005/01/xm_onspot_appli.html - you'll be able to access it from your 360.
Posted by: Ryan at May 19, 2005 10:16 AM
I talked to a Sirius rep today, and they told me that the satellite is set to launch sometime in September. So much for a geostationary orbit.
Posted by: DerBlitzkrieger at May 19, 2005 11:04 AM
Man. I really couldn't care less. I get reception fine and im current in an extremely rural community out in the middle of West Virginia. As long as Howard is coming in 06 it's all good.
Posted by: Charlie at May 21, 2005 08:08 PM
