5 Key Takeaways on Sirius + XM Merger Strategy

Tuesday, February 20, 2007 at 11:19 AM
Tags: 2, XM

After today's conference call about the merger of the two companies, I felt it's necessary to break down the current strategy that I'm seeing both companies taking.

This merger needs to be positioned in a positive light, and most importantly it needs to be proven that this is actually in the best interests of the consumer. So here's 5 key points about how I think they're attempting to do this:

Satellite Radio's competition
1. Satellite Radio is the underdog.

Both companies need to show that this merger won't create an evil monopoly, so they're positioning the satellite radio industry as a very tiny part of a global competitive marketplace. It's not "radio" at all, but rather "audio" - so anything that competes for the consumer's earshare is in essence competition. The nicest dig that I caught was using the example of HD Radio (a technology that terrestrial has introduced in response to Satellite Radio)


Times have changed
2. Times have changed.

It's not 1997 anymore. The audio marketplace has changed and this merger is needed in order to stay with the times. And we're in such a quickly developing technology boom right now that even unestablished threats (e.g., WiMAX) are a potential threat. This actually is a play towards point #1, because they can claim that the FCC couldn't have predicted the future and that sticking to the old rules is crippling in nature.


Satellite Radio's growing subscribers
3. Satellite Radio is growing, but can grow faster.

Regardless of the competitive threats, the satellite radio medium has grown faster in the past 5 years than any other consumer technology (with exception to the iPod). This is a double-edged sword, because it could work against the "underdog" positioning, but it clearly shows that there's a public interest in this medium.


Merged programming
4. More choice for the consumer.
If you happen to be a Howard Stern fan and a baseball fan, you currently have to buy two receivers and pay two subscriptions. More importantly you don't have this choice as an integrated OEM solution when you buy a new car. A merged company allows you, the consumer, to get access to all the content your heart desires. Throw in the A La Carte option and it becomes all about choice.


Advertising growth in satellite radio
5. Prices will be kept in check.
Karmazin purposely concentrated on the advertising revenue opportunity in the conference call because everyone wants to know the money side of it. Not just for the bottomline, but for consumers who are already jaded by subscriber based services (read: cable). Since they will have a larger base to sell advertising to (i.e., raise the ad rates), and are still competing in a great audio marketplace, the prices will naturally have to be kept low. Karmazin's stance on raising subscription prices definitely appears to have softened now that the merger is announced.


It seems that XM and Sirius will keep pushing on this points in hopes that they could get this passed by the FCC, DoJ and shareholders. But no matter what, it's going to be an uphill battle.

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Comments

Finally....now XM/Sirius can set to work on a
universal satellite receiver, join R&D dollars to
lower power consumption, and in general offer the
customer a better value and more programming choices.
Two watts of power consumption is why you don't see
satellite receiver options in iPods!

In order to make the merger work one of the two
merged services should become advertiser supported.
Listenership is now large enough for ad revenue to
help with the cash flow model. Marketing and sub-
scriber acquisition costs should now be more efficient
as well.

1. What other service can provide live content nationally while on the move? None. Satellite radio is unique in this and many other ways. This is the reason we love it and don't replace it with HD radio, IPod's, Internet streams, etc. If Satellite did a better job managing, educating the public, and promoting the service it wouldn't be an underdog.

2. Times always change, it isn't an argument it is rhetoric. If the argument being made was for a change in the delivery method or content there might be a point to make here, but they want essentially the same service with only one company to choose. "Multi-tier plans" are just to cover for the lack of real choice in providers.

3. Who is to say that the reason they are growing is not due to the innovation that comes from direct competition with each other? Maybe what keeps SatRad on its toes was the rival company? The whole reason two companies were required at the first licensing is that , as history shows, it is better for the market for the consumer to be able to drive the direction of an industry by choosing the service that provides the best product for them. As more people choose a style or method, the industry adopts it to remain competitive and the consumer benefits by having a product or service it prefers reacting to their choices, not dictating their choices as in the case of a monopoly.

4. Why are we assuming that "a la cart" means you get to choose any individual channels you want? Even assuming that is the case, what would stop the one company from collecting channels into packages filled with content you do not want to get the few channels you do want in the future (like cable and satellite TV)? Nothing. No competitor can enter and challenge that system with all the bandwidth assigned to the combined company.
About OEM installs, you don't get to specify that you want an integrated IPod unit or Zune. You just get the jack for it, yup IPods must be failing because of this. How will you ever get a Sirius OEM to work with XM (or vice versa)? It can be done already to almost all installs.

5. No one has any proof that prices will remain in check. Monopolies (or "partial monopolies" if you want to include mp3 players and HD radio) are always known for their fair treatment of their customers right? Love you cell carriers rates? Now imagine that your cell provider has the only one that could get reception in your state. Sure you could yell out a window or use VOIP telephone, but that isn't the same is it? Do you think your cell price would increase over time?
How about the other option. No price increase just increased advertisements. You get the before mentioned cell phone at the normal national rate but you have to listen to a 60 second commercial with every call. I'm sure you wouldn't mind paying the same for the new cell service with commercials because it is keeping them from raising prices, which they could do in addition later anyway. The feds have allocated all of the space for cell towers to your cell company in your state so no one else will be moving in to challenge them. You will stick with the cell phone company and encourage others to adopt it as well, right?

The Merger is for the stock holders, not the listeners.

>> How will you ever get a Sirius OEM to work with XM (or vice versa)? It can be done already to almost all installs. >>

What exactly are you talking about here - my new Civic has an XM unit pre-installed. Are you saying it's relatively easy to make that unit interoperable with the new merged signal?

Ryan, great post. And History Guy, you've a few interesting points in your rebuttal as well.

I am at the "wait and see" approach as far as programming is concerned. We also don't know if the FCC would allow them to keep both bandwidths (never mind approving the merger to begin with).

One thing of note: Internet radio. Internet radio is a vast wasteland of un-regulated channels right now. If it becomes big in vehicles due to Wimax etc, what makes you think the NAB/FCC will sit idly by and let them broadcast without fees or kickbacks to the RIAA and record companies? Soon they will need to make money to operate, just like SDARS and terrestrial, which means commercials appear and other junk. I believe internet radio will not pose as big a threat as people claim it will. It will be but one other choice for consumers, but it won't be able to compete with SDARS on commercial-free content (and other big names or sports)forever.

I can't support the merger until I know how many shares the new company will issue.

It's all about the PE and that's an unknown without that very important number ( That Mel dodged BTW ) .

Me and Plowboy1 say no-go at this time.

This is a well thought out and written article and portrays the benefits. I agree we need to look at this is a postive light as this most likely will occur regardless of our individual opinions of whether one service is better than the other. Opps, I guess I just stated my opinion.

As a follow-on, I like both baseball and football. Presently, I need two competing devices to listen to both on satrad. I will be glad to pick a la carte so i can have one device.

Just my opinions, most likely your will differ.
Bob

How exactly - before an interoperable radio - will I be able to get MLB and Howard Stern? I am still confused by this. Say I have an XM device and I select the Howard Stern package, my radio still will only receive from the XM birds and their capacity has not gone up. So do they backhaul the Howard signal to XM in DC and then uplink it to the satellite, then I can receive it on my radio? But then what do they do with the all the other stations - there is no capacity.

Sorry if I sound like I am going in circles - but I don't see any way that this works without a loss of NON-Redundant channels - at least near term - next 3-5 years.

My question that has yet to be answered is hoe many sat. will be powering this new company xm has 4 sirius has 3 so does that make 7??????

My question that has yet to be answered is hoe many sat. will be powering this new company xm has 4 sirius has 3 so does that make 7??????

>> Do you think your cell price would increase over time?

Tis the nature of business; in a word, inflation.

>> Do you think your cell price would increase over time?

Tis the nature of business; in a word, inflation.

True there will be less of a force to keep prices in check, they will not be non-existant. HD Radio and others will suffice here. Also, as mobile internet speeds grow to broadband levels and cover wider areas watch for subscription music services to appear offering mobile music choices tailored the user.

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