The folks over at SSG were kind enough to provide the data of both quarterly and total net subscribers between both Sirius and XM. Using this data, below is a visual look at the year in net subscribers.
2006 Quarterly Net Subscriber Additions:
The scary part: in terms of net subscriber additions, XM actually performed better in the first quarter of 2006, than in the fourth quarter of 2006. Of course this may not be the case in terms of gross subscribers (read more here) but it's still concerning to say the least.
2006 Total Net Subscribers:
Sirius now is nearly at the same point in total subscribers as XM was a year ago. The thing that is blatantly apparent is that Sirius is showing more rapid growth than XM is during the past year. Whether or not Sirius will begin to experience similar "growing pains" that XM experienced this year is hard to say as 2007 is going to be a completely different climate.
But should Sirius and XM continue on exactly the same paths they are following right now - based on only 2006 numbers - they could reach the same number of subscribers in the third quarter of 2007.
I think this is a result of the Bubba effect
well, there are a lot of new '07 mazda's on dealer lots...
Whoa, made it all the way to two comments before some bitter XM listner trashes Sirius.
I was expecting Sirius to beat XM on new subscribers this quarter, but by TWO TO ONE!? That's what I call pwned.
But...but...but...but... I thought XM was tanking! I thought that Howard was going to break their backs! What happened?
"But...but...but...but... I thought XM was tanking! I thought that Howard was going to break their backs! What happened?"
ummm...Do you know how to read graphs and trends?
trend/momentum is still in Sirius favor--One more year of this and they will be close to XM in subs--I dont think the spread will be this high
SSG is a biased RAG that does not allow comments. ITs BS.
Here is why. Gross numbers, OEM/Retail and total churn will tell whats going on. The Net, although dissapointing for both and dismal for XM, does not reflect simmilar numbers due to the OEM deal differences. Sirius OEM churn lags by 13 months and OEM Gross adds lead by 3 months as opposed to XM's. This also shifts the Churn percentage so thats ant a comperable number either.
do not get me wrong.. XM's number was Dismal.. not even dissapointing. Friggin dismal. but in reality is extreemly simmilar to the number Sirius netted after backing out the OEM diffences.
"But...but...but...but... I thought XM was tanking! I thought that Howard was going to break their backs! What happened?"
geeze there goes my crown of being the biggest asshat on these boards
They both need to do something big and it needs to happen this year. They both should do things to differentiate themselves from one another. Yea Sirius does still have some momentum and should take advantage of it.
XM has a head start which could be bad...Sirius can and has been using them as a learning tool for what to do and not to do. Overall I think the hype is back and I would like to see both succeed.
Wanted to share my Idea to see what people think. I actually tried to get in touch with Sirius managment to share some things but it wasnt gonna happen.
They should create a channel specifically for upcoming artists and amateurs. Basically these individuals will have the ability to create tracks and upload them through the sirius website, which will eventaully be sorted to play on the radio. They would pay either by tracks per uploaded OR by a special musicians subscription. This will give them a chance to get there music out and also give others a chance to find some new cool music. They could split up the music played on the station by months or quarters for music interest. Alternative artists on month, techno, Hip Hop, etc. Then if it makes sense have a voting system where people call in. "American Idol like" Eventually you could find some really good artists with potential and maybe even Sirius could have special rights to them. Good or stupid?! what you think guys?
Also, I think once sat-rad figures out a good structure for organizing their advertising and figure out a way to bring in new ad space (maybe visual soon) they will profit.
"I think this is a result of the Bubba effect"
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I hope that was sarcasm. I don’t think Bubba affected subscriber numbers in the slightest. Stern different story though.
Bubba is Radio Gold. He has the ears of the truckers, NASCAR fans, wrestling fans, fight fans and every thrillbilly in the South that never listened to Howard Stern. Ferrall aon't bad either. SIRIUS' channel 101 gets a lot of play 24 hours per day.
Riley Martin was the only factor.
Can somebody please explain how/why Ferrall went from friends of O&A to friends of Howard Stern? I don't keep up with shock jocks but I'm just interested. (Wikipedia is useless telling me how)
ferell and ona had a falling out right after the sex for sam deal according to ferell.
also tim sabin the PD of the stern channels is a big ferell guy and brought him in to the stern show stern liked him and gave him evenings.hes great to listen to.
Choosy Mothers chose Sirius !
XM's stock is only being held at the 14-15 dollar level due to take over speculation, noting that if you're wrong, you're going to lose. IF you think that a merger is going to happen...buy XMSR. IF you think not, than SIRI is the obvious winner of the Satrad war.
My .02. Sell XM and buy Siri.
Xm's numbers suck, we assed up again. We got no flow, we got no game. But thats nothing compared to the dogg'in and off'in which is coming our way when the HNIC, Oprah gets back and has the brothers open up a big can of wooop ass on poor Hugh's Half Steppin ass.
Here's a bit of a reality check for those expecting Sirius to surpass XM this year, let alone by Q3 this year...
Based purely on GROSS ADDS -- XM needs to gross approximately 4 million subs, in order to achieve 9 million by the end of this year; at the same time, Sirius will need to gross nearly 5 million subs, in order to achieve 9 million by the end of this year.
Before you blast me, do note that these calculations are based simply on monthly churn of 2.7% for XM (which obviously includes the OEM promo drops) and 2.2% for Sirius (which is slowly growing - as expected - as the number of their promos begin to drop out). These numbers are just cold hard facts.
To put these facts into perspective, XM grossed aproximately 3.84 million subs in 2006; Sirius grossed approximately 3.78 million subs in 2006 -- up from 2.5 million in 2005. For XM to grow to 4 million gross subs in 2007, should not be much of a problem given that they will have a 700,000 increase in OEM installs this year; for Sirius to grow from 3.78 million to 5 million, is going to be much more difficult.
I'm not saying that XM is better or that Sirius will never catch XM -- I'm just trying to put the conversation into perspective. As the sub base grows, the need for more and more gross subs increases. Sirius has to grow incredibly in 2007 over 2006 for them to "catch XM" this year.
I'm sorry, I just don't see it happening this year... could it happen in 2008? Possibly, but the closer these two sub bases get in size -- and as the churn rates continue to get closer to parity... it will become increasingly more difficult for one to out grow the other.
SSG's blog and charts are all based on NET figures -- not GROSS. XM and Sirius have different sized bases. It is impossible to fairly compare the NET increases. Yes Sirius did like out-gross add XM in Q4 last year... but they must continue to that on on-going basis before they can completely surpass XM (as churn begins to reach parity). Yes, it could happen -- just very doubtful to happen this year, unless XM falls off the face of the Earth -- or Sirius finds a way to grow their gross sales by 1.2 million this year... that is much easily said than done.
It could definately happen. Gross additions are nice, but the Net are what we are counting. If XM adds 1.7M NET in 07 they end with 9.2M, if Sirius adds another 2.7M NET they end with 8.7M. Now all that has to happen is a repeat of this year. And that is not including the CHURN XM will see because of NASCAR subscribers moving on. I think it will be very close, and I do believe XM may be out of 1st place this year.
I hope this isn't too late to jump in on this thread, but I was thinking about the financial end of things as opposed to the "beauty pageant" sub numbers.
I realize that a lot of income comes from hardware purchases, most of which will have come in Q4, but I wonder about this: if XM continues its pattern of doing better sub-wise in Q1 than Q4, perhaps a mini-streak of CFBE quarters is within reach? I know nobody expects Sirius to stay in the black next quarter but perhaps XM's closer to consistency than it's given credit for. After all there's a critical mass of subs after which you don't need to add anyone (net) and perhaps a smart company wouldn't care to. Maybe it's not far off for XM?