Analysis: August Satellite Radio Retail Sales Data from NPD
NPD Group's August sales data (available on SSG) have showed the first decline in the satellite radio retail channel, when compaired to the same period last year. Unit sales for the industry as a whole fell 3% year-over-year in August, while in July satellite radio retail sales actually increased by 2% YoY in July.The Quick Glance:
Sirius August 2006 Retail Share: 55%
XM August 2006 Retail Share: 45%
Sirius' unit sales were up 16% YoY in August, while XM's unit sales were down 19%. Compare this with July, where Sirius' YoY unit growth was up an incredible 49%, and XM's YoY unit sales were down a whopping 29%.
The Analysis:
Sirius Satellite Radio's retail share has been 54% or better for every month since September 2005. That my friends is The Stern Effect in action. Unfortunately this also sets the bar very high for the coming months, and with the amount of retail activity we saw in Q405 it'll be hard to show a year-over-year increase this year. Sirius' share was 55% in August, in line with September 2005 (55%). XM's share on the otherhand was 45% in August, compared with 54% in September 2005. For the past 12 months, Sirius has dominated the satellite radio retail market share.
Going forward, I just don't see Q4's retail sales showing any sort of YoY growth from 2005. 2005 could almost be discounted as an anomoly (almost) because the subscriber growth was just not indicative to a "natural" curve. Stern changed everything last year and the hype he generated will be extremely difficult to duplicate this year. I'm not being a Negative-Nancy, just trying to set some realistic expectations for the months to come.
Does this support the theory that satellite radio retail sales have reached their peak? I'm not so sure, but the months ahead will be difficult.


Comments
lol there is no stern effect right...
lol, keep saying that to yourself. the more you say it the more you actually belive it.
"O&A say I invented everything. I didn't invent everything...JUST THEIR ACT."
Posted by: PNess | September 19, 2006 9:45 AM
I think eventually (like in 2 years or so) everything will even out sales-wise although due to greater mind-share and apparently consistent retail numbers, Sirius will surpass XM in sub numbers sometime late next year.
Sirius also has much better management so I wouldn't be surprized if Sirius pulls off a major deal - OEM-related or otherwise - of some kind in the next year that could potentially change the Satellite Radio landscape.
But hell, it's all just a blind guess, anyway. Even the so called "analysts" are often talking out of their collective asses. Time will tell.
Posted by: MikeHunt ? | September 19, 2006 9:54 AM
a lot of best buys, circuit city's, and online stores ran out of Sirius product in august (star mate replay's, sportster 2 and 4, and S50). XM was well in stock (except for the audiovox xpress).
its amazing how sirius still took the market share lead again in august!
Posted by: Philmore | September 19, 2006 10:00 AM
Just like those in the know have said since Sirius signed The King of All Media. The BIG DOG Sirius is the leader. Its over xm, its over xmelots.
Posted by: CCCC | September 19, 2006 10:22 AM
Lies. All Lies.
Posted by: Schimshamity ? | September 19, 2006 10:33 AM
PNess: Was that directed towards me? Of course there's a Stern Effect! I actually do say that in the post, "That my friends is The Stern Effect in action."
The question remains as to whether the momentum can be maintained. The number of subs that came in late last year - particularly in retail - was an outstanding amount. All because of Stern.
Here's a problem though: the Media is going to spin this like crazy in the next few months. As NPD numbers come out show that YoY growth has declined, they're all going to say that Stern has failed. That satellite radio is failing. They're going to spell doom-and-gloom for the entire industry. Just wait.
Posted by: Ryan Saghir ? | September 19, 2006 10:46 AM
Ryan, I think that was sarcasm. ;)
You're right about the spin, though.
Posted by: Schimshamity ? | September 19, 2006 10:54 AM
"a lot of best buys, circuit city's, and online stores ran out of Sirius product in august (star mate replay's, sportster 2 and 4, and S50). XM was well in stock (except for the audiovox xpress)."
You missed all the FCC issues? Welcome to Orbitcast. Sirius did well all year, nobody can deny that. And its all thanks to Stern. But in the end they only closed the gap by 1* million subscribers.
Posted by: tussel ? | September 19, 2006 11:17 AM
Subscriber GROWTH has reach its peak, subscriber numbers are far from peaking.
Besides, I'm long XM & Short Sirius, so I don't give a shit if the industry collapses, I would actually profit form it. I am however, starting to believe the market is only big enough for one player.
I know who that one player will be.
Westfall
"Anyone who calls himself 'PNess', and thinks that's clever is a fucking retard"
--WF
Posted by: Westfall ? | September 19, 2006 11:35 AM
We suck. But as long as people are paying, they can operate.
Posted by: Brian ? | September 19, 2006 11:45 AM
Props on the digg linking, Ryan.
Posted by: Brian ? | September 19, 2006 11:46 AM
Clever name?..hmmmm depends on who reads the name Westfall. Guess everyone name is helpful to see how clever, smart, intelligent they might be right?
No, so shut up and sit down. Hope your XM long was not in the 30's like everyone else was. But you won't be man enough to admit you lost money on your wonderful XM will you now?
_________________________
Ryan it was sarcasm...or a failed attempt at sarcasm.
Guess i am just not as creative as..say..nah i won't go there.
Anyone who says there was no stern effect is just wrong.
Posted by: PNess | September 19, 2006 1:08 PM
"You missed all the FCC issues? Welcome to Orbitcast. Sirius did well all year, nobody can deny that. And its all thanks to Stern. But in the end they only closed the gap by 1* million subscribers."
The end is not yet here! If XM only makes the 7.7 and Sirius get to over 6.4 then the gap will have closed by a HUGE amount!! And Sirius will be in prime position to take over next year.
Looks like the #1 satellite radio company signs are going to have to come down soon!!
Posted by: Aces | September 19, 2006 2:09 PM
"And Sirius will be in prime position to take over next year."
You owe me a new keyboard, i just threw up on it. Have fun paying 20+ a month for sub par programing because there is no competition. And buying that new radio.
Posted by: tussel ? | September 19, 2006 6:47 PM
Opps, i thought you meant a merger. Sorry. OEM my friend, OEM. Sirius will never have more subs than XM. Thats pretty much a given. If with Sirius inflating numbers thanks to cars sitting on lots.
Posted by: tussel ? | September 19, 2006 6:49 PM
trussel, your hopes and dreams of Hugh and xm will be CRUSHED next year when SIRIUS has more customers than xm. Sirius is already the leader and the top dog in Sat Radio. First The King of All Media came in and in a few months NASCAR is going to upgrade to Sirius and all that will be left for xm to do is count the ch ch ch CHURN.
xm is nothing but a dead end, started saying it 2 years ago now. Soon there will be nothing but a sad group of xmelots, left with useless xm gear which will be good for even less than the nothing they are currently getting from xm.
Although Open and Ass (again with no jobs) will collect all the useless xm gear and see how many they can shove up each others ass's.
Posted by: ryan | September 19, 2006 8:28 PM
OEM SMOO E M
AM I wrong about OEM "built into the car radio" that you do not get any kind of break on 2nd sub cost. You cant take into house or 2nd car ect...I dont see the big whoop about OEM if you don't have the options of retail radio, I have 2 car kits and a home kit for my one sportster. I could see how AVG JOE might not re-up his new car sub if he only gets a few mins A day in the car.
Posted by: Tom C. ? | September 19, 2006 8:49 PM
P.S.- XM and sirius are the same on this issue.
Posted by: Tom C. ? | September 19, 2006 8:51 PM
"OEM SMOO E M"
Last quarter Sirius gained more subs from OEM then they did with retail. I posted the figure in this "thread". Here you go
"SIRIUS added 276,294 net subscribers from its retail channel"
"324,574 net subscribers from its automotive OEM channel"
http://investor.sirius.com/ReleaseDetail.cfm?ReleaseID=205864&cat=Earnings&newsroom=
And with Ryans post about retail share peeking, which i almost believe in..... OEM is clutch now.
Posted by: tussel ? | September 19, 2006 9:50 PM
With XM i can spend all day in the car :). But your right, i love it at home and at work. But OEM is a great way to get people hooked in. Then they may be dumb enough to go out and buy a receiver from retail and pay the cost for two subs. Most people in the Sat Radio Demo (+35 years old ) IMO, cant and dont want to install anything in their cars. I said most, not all.
Posted by: tussel ? | September 19, 2006 9:54 PM
Tussel, not looking for an XM sirius thing. I mean both satrads in my OEM post.
=
Then they may be dumb enough to go out and buy a receiver from retail and pay the cost for two subs. Most people in the Sat Radio Demo (+35 years old ) IMO, cant and dont want to install anything in their cars. I said most, not all.
=
I think we are saying the same thing. New Car guy might not be that inpressed, So I feel that you might want to push to the people that will install car kit and then home kit.
Posted by: Tom C. ? | September 19, 2006 10:12 PM
But thats the market that may have peeked. As rumored in another article here. Far to many MP3 players on the market. And thats the going fad. Satellite Radio isnt going to stop it unless they smack each person in the face with great programming. And that programming cant be found unless someone goes out, buys a unit, installs, etc. New car, free trial. Free sub for years in Sirius's case. Easier that way.
Posted by: tussel ? | September 19, 2006 10:47 PM
OK, I sure aint a marketing guy. I for one want both satrads around, I think that one pushs the other and that is good for me.
Posted by: Tom C. ? | September 19, 2006 10:55 PM
Funny how the media lumps Sirius and XM together when XM does poorly so they can shit on Sirius and Howard.
Anyone who says there isn't a smear campaign against Howard by both XM and testicle radio has their heads way up their asses and/or are and o&a fans.
Posted by: Stan ? | September 19, 2006 10:57 PM
Media? lol. You know your calling the owner and writer of this site part of this "smear campaign".
Posted by: tussel ? | September 19, 2006 11:27 PM
There is plenty of room for both XM and Sirius. How does the car industry survive with the 40+ manufacturers out there. We should only have one. Why do we need more than one car manufacturer? One car will suite all our needs. We should also have one cable and one satellite TV company because we don't need a choice. BS!!!
There is no way XM and Sirius can be one company. It's called a Monopoly. If you don't think the Terrestrial radio is being babies now, wait until the two SatRad companies decide to merge. It will never happen. Anyone remember Microsoft Vs Gov?
It's all about choice. More power to us in the USA. We have choices and can make our own decisions based on what we want to hear, drive, buy, whatever.
Posted by: mark | September 19, 2006 11:54 PM