Bridge Ratings has released a new study projecting the user growth of various digital media including Satellite Radio, Internet radio, mobile phone streaming, and HD Radio (amongst others).

Let's first focus on the satellite radio subscriber projections, because well, that's what I do. So for the end of 2007, Bridge Ratings is projecting an increase of 3.9 million net subscribers for the satellite radio industry as a whole - with XM at 9.12 million, and Sirius at 8.34 million subscribers.

Just for comparison's sake: Bear Stearns' Robert Peck predicts XM to end 2007 with 9.2-9.3 million subscribers, and Sirius to end the year with 8.1-8.2 million. Bank of America's Jonathan Jacoby weighs in with his 2007 prediction of 9.2 million subscribers for XM and 8.2 million subscribers for Sirius.

Whatever the source, it's obvious that there's a lowered expectation for the total number of potential satellite radio subscribers in the US. Something that industry-watchers (myself included) continue to scratch their head over.

And that's only 2007.

For year-end 2008, Bridge is predicting 10.76 net subscribers for XM and 9.99 subscribers for Sirius. By 2010, Bridge is saying that XM will have 12.48M subs and Sirius will have 11.99M subs. By 2015 we're at 15.60M for XM, and 14.39M for Sirius. And yes, the projection even goes as far as 2020 where Bridge estimates 17.94M subs for XM and 17.26M subs for Sirius.

Since the predictability of anything past 5 years essentially deteriorates over time, let's just look at the 2015 and 2020 projections as "interesting" but non-conclusive. Technology changes at such a rapid pace, that it's just not reasonable to look at anything past 5 years (case in point: 5 years ago XM had 27k subscribers).

Looking at the other 2010 numbers, there's some interesting figures that I'm sure XM and Sirius are looking closely at (or they should be). Particularly that's Wireless Internet (WiMAX?) and Mobile Phone Streaming. These could lead to a new definition of "subscribers" as XM and Sirius look to diversify their offering.

By the beginning of 2010, Bridge is estimating 93.26 million Wireless Internet users. That doesn't necessarily mean that there will be over 93M people listening over Wireless Internet (so from a superficial standpoint you could consider it as a "no threat" figure) but it shows a trend of what consumers will be expecting. And guess what: mindshare is everything. While I can't attest to the numbers of Wireless Internet users, it doesn't seem like a bad idea for satellite radio to position themselves more than just "radio" but as an overall method of "connectivity" - particularly in the car. Delivering real-time services that prove useful for the consumer on-the-go is a big step towards making satellite radio a "necessity" rather than a "luxury." Real-time traffic, weather, stocks, sports (...what's next?) are all things that can be delivered to the consumer as pure data - making terrestrial radio (essentially the "middle man") an obsolete service no longer needed by the mobile user.

As for Mobile Phone Streaming, Bridge is predicting 40.17 million users by 2010. (Side note: the term "mobile phone streaming" and "wireless internet" could very well be the same thing in a couple years - but I've split hairs enough for this post.) More than anything Mobile Phone Streaming looks to be an opportunity for the satellite radio industry. It's in the unique position to be a centralized content provider - not just of live programming - but of "effortless" music content (not to mention those data services). Sure deals like Sprint and Cingular don't give much to the bottomline right now, but strategically they're the foot in the door for when the consumer begins to actually look at their phone as a music device. And that change in consumer mindset looks to be right over the horizon.

So while we're looking at the possibility of a slower overall adoption of satellite radio in the next few years (something I'm not 100% convinced of), a lot can change in the next few years, and the definition of what a "subscriber" really is... could change as well.

[More at Bridge Ratings]