Shares of Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. and XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. tumbled this morning on a downgrade from a Goldman Sachs analyst, citing larger losses for each company and threats from other technologies like the iPhone.
Analyst Mark Wienkes, slashed his 6-month price targets for XMSR from $11.50 to $6.50, and cut his prior target for SIRI shares from $2.25 to a mere $1.75. Wienkes maintained a "Sell" rating on XM and a "Conviction Sell" rating on Sirius, and forecast larger losses in 2009 and 2010 for both companies.
The Goldman Sachs analyst said the stock prices are too high because both companies are facing declining cash flows.
Wienkes said that young customers are buying fewer satellite radios and are instead turning to other technologies like the latest iPhone (this is news?!). Wienkes said these other options threaten the prospects of satellite radio - an amazing realization, since that's the argument Sirius-XM have been using to justify the merger all along.
Shares of SIRI tumbled 15% on the news, while XMSR fell nearly 20% in morning trading.
[CNN Money]
Funny that HD Radio was trying to hitch a ride on Satrad, when both technologies will eventually go bust.
You can thank this guy for the new stock prices:
http://smi-execs.blogspot.com/2008/03/mark-wienkes-cfa-cfp.html
Mark Wienkes, CFA, CFP
Vice President, Equity Research
Goldman Sachs
212.357.1986
mark.wienkes@gs.com
http://www.linkedin.com/pub/3/375/A91
Mark Wienkes
Equity Analyst
Greater New York City Area
You can thank this guy for the new stock prices:
http://smi-execs.blogspot.com/2008/03/mark-wienkes-cfa-cfp.html
Mark Wienkes, CFA, CFP
Vice President, Equity Research
Goldman Sachs
212.357.1986
mark.wienkes@gs.com
http://www.linkedin.com/pub/3/375/A91
Mark Wienkes
Equity Analyst
Greater New York City Area
BTW -- I do next except Mel and Co to battle stupid GS -- they have to focus ALL their attention on getting this merger approved.
Once that's done. It's KICK ASS TIME!
could this be that GS has a HUGE short position on the stock and they are using the downgrade to cover?(which is kinda criminal if you think about it(
Has Martin left the country yet for his Asia trip? and does GS have a large short position on XM/Siri?
Most folks here are long right? Who cares what Mark Wienkes says, let the stock go to 1.75, that is a HUGE load up point?
Does anyone here believe at this point with the concessions, the FCC chair approval, the DOJ approval, the 5B worth of savings, and the restructuring taking about 1 year post-merger that:
A. The Merger won't go through, or
B. The merged company wont get bond insurers to finance the new company?!
If you don't you have a conviction sell stock, if you do believe A+B you have a buy
Its that simple and in 2010 you have a cashcow in a good economy.. bank on it.
Wow, Maybe this report would have been better over 400days ago.
What bothers me the most is that this "analyst" seems to know NOTHING about the business at all. He is basing his prediction on the decline in RETAIL and more youth moving towards iPods?!?!?!? Did this iPod thing just come out or something? They have been fighting for retail subs for a while now and its widely accepted that it is dead. With the damn merger taking so long there is no incentive to push retail since nobody wants to buy an outdated piece of equipment. This guy probably makes a 7-figure income and all he does is screw other people out of money based on his new thoughts and ideas that have been debunked 100 times before.
I have a prediction... CD sales are going to drop due to the youth's interest in iTunes. Everyone sell your BMG and Sony stock!!!!!
Im just glad I dont own any stock in these companies. Hopefully the approval of the merger will bring it back up to where it was yesterday at least.
LET THIS BE A LESSON --
NEVER INVEST IN INDIVIDUAL SECURITIES UNLESS YOU HAVE INSIDER INFORMATION.
WALL STREET IS A SCAM...IT IS FOR THE HEDGE FUNDS AND BIG PLAYERS.
SAVE YOUR MONEY!!!
The problem is yeah they can merge, but the surviving company will still be bleed cash, if SIRIUS just fired Stern they might survive just fine. How is any comedy team worth 500 million especially to a struggling company?
Sirius can't "fire" Stern as he is under contract for five years. Sirius would have to buy out the remainder of his contract.
I smell blood. Time to load up.. or be sorry tommorrow.
I smell blood. Time to load up... or be sorry tommorrow.
You can thank the bought off FCC.
Here's the trade.
Sell siri at 2.15 buy XMSR at 8.55 ... the 4.6 isn't met.
Make 1.40 bonus!
11 analysts have a mean target of $3.70 , yet Sirius sell off when the Analyst
with the low target lowers his target 100% lower than the mean.
What makes his assessment smarter or better than everyone else - NOTHING !!!!
Goldman is maniputing the shareprice by shorting. in my opinion.
PRICE TARGET SUMMARY
Mean Target: 4.08
Median Target: 3.70
High Target: 9.00
Low Target: 2.25
No. of Brokers: 11
Why do you take your anger out on GS when they have been EXTREMELY accurate for 8 months?
Ask yourself instead, where would these companies be today if the FCC (approve this last November) wasn't a collection of paid-off fucking hacks trying to save their own ass?
I agree with: "Thank the FCC" for this.
If most long share holders plan on holding out for the merger aproval and XM has 32 million short shares and many people have stop losses. Then add a big Downgrade and you have a "perfect Storm" IMO this is what I call INVERSE TRADING ... proff will be if the Short interest falls considerably as tomorrow is reporting day.
A "conviction sell"?
Sounds ominous.
Martin: How would this look on my Resume'? ...Maybe I can stall and they will give up?
Contact me: Martin@selfservinginterests.com
Where would these companies be if the merger had been approved 400 days ago? I believe exactly where they are today. Bleeding cash, dead at retail, executing some of the worst advertising/marketing campaigns ever and generating zero excitement about their product.
Mark Wienkis is a punk. He knows NOTHING. On a slow news day he decides to reiterate his previous sell recommendation. Big deal. The shorts and hedge funds then swooped in like vultures to make mince meat of the stock. These fast-buck predators run in the same pack. Sell your shares on any rebound rally because they will take it down to 1.75 before the carnage is over and they move on to something else.
Thanks for the Kudos from DavidL and Kalm.
I told the board as the merger is closer to completion expect the big boys to downgrade, cover their positions and leave or go long. With options expiration tomorrow and a merger decision imminent, we knew this would be the week for covering.
Next question.
How is it that Citi raises SIRI's target to $9 while Goldman reduces it to $1.75?
Why not throw a dart at the wall?
Well, that's not the way Wall Street works.
Citi will most likely be heavily involved with refinancing of the deal (if they aren't already) in the future as they're one of the few big boys left in NYC.
But why Goldman? Why the "murder" of Sirius and XM today?
Simple: guess who is a long time client of Goldman paying millions in fees to them?
Hint: its not the NAB but one of the largest opponents to this deal and this merger is the greatest threat to their business. Its about loyalty.
Now you have your answer. (*)
Hold.
Sentiment : Hold
=
*(clearchannel)
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_S/threadview?m=tm&bn=22318&tid=3534993&mid=3534993&tof=3&frt=3
dude just sit tight. I've been up 30k and down 30k on this rollercoaster.
the only thing thats gonna kill me is if the stock goes bust... I don't think thats going to happen because satrad is a great product.
you need nerves of steel to own this stock.
you either believe in the business or you dont. if youre in it for a day trade - youre playing russian roulette.
stock analysts dont know jack! theyre like weather men... total speculators who act like theyre experts on every stock out there.
Anyone who doesn't think this is a "play" is a fool.
They probably sold, say a few bad words, let the stock slide, and will quickly re-up to play the arbitrage.
This is stock manipulation at its finest....and criminal to boot. Let the lawsuits start flying.
P.S. I'm up for a cool quick $50k on this (been out of these stocks since '04, after breaking even).
Do xm options convert to 4.6 times the siri options at adjusted strikes?
Do xm options convert to 4.6 times the siri options at adjusted strikes?
um guys... There are easier ways to make money, forget about these dog ass stocks. How many of you have been holding on, hoping for a pop from the merger. There won't be a pop. Good service, bad stocks...
um guys... There are easier ways to make money, forget about these dog ass stocks. How many of you have been holding on, hoping for a pop from the merger. There won't be a pop. Good service, bad stocks...
Posted by: bob | June 19, 2008 4:43 PM
Plowboy for one. Poor bastard lost his shirt on SIRI. How anyone with half a brain couldn't see the trainwreck SIRI put itself into after spending ridiculous amounts of money to get a subscriber, and on talent with limited appeal, is beyond me.
Plowboy being one of Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin's bitches is to busy sucking up than to think straight. He gets exactly wants coming to him making a risky investment and thinking a "merge" MONOPOLY is anything but Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin's scheme which is completely destroy the satradio industry. We are just starting to see reality with these two companies which couldn't make money even if they were printing the stuff. The business plan is bogus everyone knows it, everyone knows a "merge" MONOPOLY will not help anything but to quicken satradio's DEMISE.
Here is a tip you can go purchase radio gear on. The future of radio is here:
HD Digital Radio • IT'S TIME TO UPGRADE!
HD Digital Radio. It's here. It's local. It's free. DISCOVER IT!
www.hdradio.com/
Lastly, if you are so inclined, please forward this to 2-3 of your friends and ask them to call and write their congressmen and women letting them know educated people do not want a "merge" MONOPOLY in the Satellite radio industry. Long live the NAB and FCC.
"Poor bastard lost his shirt on SIRI. How anyone with half a brain couldn't see the trainwreck SIRI put itself into after spending ridiculous amounts of money to get a subscriber, and on talent with limited appeal, is beyond me."
People dont chose sirius. Its given to them when they buy a car. What a great business move. Everyone is listening to Stern!
Sat Rad Sucks. People dont chose sirius. Its given to them when they buy a car. What a great business move. Everyone is listening to Stern!
Using that logic people do not choose XM either stupid.
Mine came with my car too. I love it, and got one for the house also, and I really hardly ever listen to stern at all, there is so much more to listen to. Makes regular radio obsolete.