I don't give a shit anymore what ANY analyst says!!! Yes, sirius is the BETTER company. And yes it will go up wether the merger is denied or approved.

BUT AS LONG AS THE FCC KEEPS THINGS IN LIMBO THIS COMPANY IS BEING KILLED! ALONG WITH ITS LONG SUFFERING SHAREHOLDERS!

ENOUGH ALREADY.

WHEN IS MEL going to throw up his hands and just SUE the FCC????

is this analyst assuming that Stern will continue ad infinitum?

Wow, talk about gas for the fire. Stack and Homer can tell us why this all wrong. How XM should pull out from the merger, and is really better off than Sirius

liam:

I have heard that SOOOO many times before, but the thing is:

YOU CANNOT SUE THE FCC. When are you people going to get it through your heads that the FCC is a government body responsible for overseeing transmission licences.

Unless you have an email or letter from Kevin Martin to the NAB saying "We will screw these two companies over so terrestrial radio will live strong forever" there is absolutely no proof what so ever that there is anything illegal going on here. What are you going to sue for? It is the DoJ that you can sue to overturn a ruling, not the FCC, and they already have the DoJ's blessing. Unless you can PROVE BEYOND A REASONABLE DOUBT with ROCK SOLID EVIDENCE that there is something ILLEGAL going on here, there is nothing to sue for.

It sucks, yes. But thats the way out wanderful government is set up.

More gems from an "analyst". Does he predict a smooth and speedy merger approval too? Or how about predicting a decision will be made by 4 months ago? Another uninformed boob trying to get in the spotlight.

In the last 15 months Sirius stock has gone nothing but down because of this criminal merger delay by the FCC.

In just the last month I could have been in YGE which went from $13 to $28. DSTI which went from $2.50 to $4.50. LVLT which went from $1.80 to $3.70!! Apple which went from $125 to $190. Or VLNC which went from $2 to $4.50!!

I've been waiting to sell sirius for months and missed all those opportunities.

This has been the single worst stock I've ever been in. And the crazy part is that it's all because of the FCC. If the merger went thru like ALL THE FRIGGIN analysts said it would back in December, this sucker would have popped to $7 easy. But EVERYTHING that could go wrong HAS gone wrong with this stock.

Hey... it looks like Harris Corp. has their eye on mobile DTV. This would be a competitor with backseat TV. In fact, it sounds like Harris Corp. has a much more scaleable solution than what Sirius offers, and I see talk about handhelds.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080514/clw079.html?.v=98

Are they?

"YOU CANNOT SUE THE FCC. When are you people going to get it through your heads that the FCC is a government body responsible for overseeing transmission licences."

"Judge tells FCC to rework powerline broadband regulations"

"The ARRL and other ham radio groups have been consistently critical of BPL, arguing that the technology causes interference on their receivers... In its ruling, the three-judge panel said that federal law required the FCC to make all portions of the studies available, and that the Commission didn't adequately explain how it arrived at its criteria for determining when a BPL signal causes harmful interference."

http://tinyurl.com/47nqb9

The ARRL took the FCC to court and forced them to back away from BPL. This is exactly the same thing that non-HD broadcasters should do over HD/IBOC adjacent-channel interference. The NAB/iBiquity is trying to submit a secretive study to the FCC, in order to get the proposed 10db FM-HD power increase approved:

"NAB to Seek FCC Approval of Major IBOC Power Boost"

"For some broadcasters, however, the fact that the NAB has apparently signed on to the recommendation without first revealing details of this rather secretive study to its general membership is both striking and troubling."

http://tinyurl.com/39foj9

That guy is a loon. If he think's they're going to renew Howie and he'll take less this time, he's nuts, and Sirius' TV is going to die a horrible death. Their audio signals aren't strong enough, how they expect to push video that's still watchable is beyond me. If they don't think local broadcasters' mobile TV is a threat, they've got a surprise coming.

mobile media (DTV) is the future, and the FCC is killing Sirius on purpose. Sabotage.

...and they are laughing at the DOJ. Justice - ha ha ha ha ha ha!

What a joke!

I agree with the premise of the acticle. Sirius has been growing much faster for 2 years now, and is even beginning to catch up on the OEM side. There is no reason to think this will not continue, and even accellerate without the merger. A merger makes the most sense for BOTH companies and the consuming public. There really never was a good argument for the FCC to split the two up and not to grant a license to one satellite company from the start, given the costs involved.

"That guy is a loon. If he think's they're going to renew Howie and he'll take less this time, he's nuts"

Me said something like "If he is listening we would love to resign Howard at a lower cost" in a CC some quarters ago.

The claim is idiotic.

The fact that SIRI only added 2500 retail subscribers last quarter tells a significant part of the story. Since XM has the preponderance of the OEMs on its side, as retail continues to collapse (and it will), OEMS are the key to success.

XM essentially "caught" SIRI in net adds in Q1. This trend is likely to continue, and over the course of the ensuing quarters, XM will likely once again become the market share leader and continue extending its cumulative market share over SIRI. The benefit of Stern, in terms of getting new subscribers, has clearly worn off -- SIRI only added a net of 2500 subscribers at retail last quarter, and must be presumed to be more reliant on retail than ever. Add to that the fact that SIRI is already overstating its subscriber count by a million.

It is a pretty absurd position -- of course, XM's management has only fueled the fire by committing to an exchange ratio that is well below what it should have been.

If XM's own management doesn't place a higher value on the company, why in hell would professional analysts?

It was a stupid deal at the outset, but with SIRI's Q1, it looks even more stupid today. It is time for XM to bail out of this deal.

Another analyst that doesn't see the whole picture.

He IS correct on Sirius stock doing better because of perceived growth. However, seeing that retail is dead and OEM is king, XM will once again pull away with more OEM growth in '09 and the foreseeable future.

I believe it was homer that said Sirius still has some CAPEX expenses coming with the new satellite launches and a few other things, making Sirius' losses equal XM's in the coming year.

As far as a content advantage (for all of you XM vs SIRI clowns), Sirius will need to renew Stern and the NFL within the next 2.5 years, and that is assuming that Stern doesn't retire and/or Stern and the NFL don't demand more money to stay.

I don't honestly know why any analysts want to be holding these stocks anyways. They aren't going anywhere anytime soon. There is "risk" in BOTH stocks for quite some time. The best any investor can count on is the merger jump if approved without conditions.

XM drops some of their higher cost programming like.... whatever made them have to consider a merger in the first place... and fire the management team... what I fear the most is that the merger won't go through and they have to either refinance that debt payment next year, or they have to make a deal with the devil (CLEAR CHANNEL) to keep working...

I've got to say it again............

More Danica Patrick, fewer analysts!

Tom C. said:
>>>Wow, talk about gas for the fire. Stack and Homer can tell us why this all wrong. How XM should pull out from the merger, and is really better off than Sirius

First of all, if no merger -- I don't believe that either company is worth the risk of investment going forward. XM's rich OEM contracts are proving to be a cashflow drain -- which I was hoping would start turning around by now, but they have not. That could change in the future, but I'm skeptical (at best) going forward.

Secondly regarding Sirius - none of the analysts have considered the huge financing risk facing Sirius in the coming 4 years, as Sirius needs significant capital to fund the satellite replacement CapEx needed.

Sure, Sirius may be better positioned to reach profitability before XM (I emphasize MAY), because XM's OEM contracts have not proven their worth to me yet, but they could... but they will also likely prove to be too onerous in the near term. However, the financing risk facing Sirius in the coming years is just as important to me, as it can keep pressure on their stock as well, in the event of no merger. The fact that so many are ignoring the CapEx need for Sirius is startling; I underestimated the amount needed and the impact on XM to fund the replacement of their infrastructure and learned a hard lesson... I won't make that mistake twice. If you and these analysts choose to, then do so at your own risk.

This analyst wrong? Not on the surface -- but he is ignoring a significant need that is facing Sirius. If I were you, I would run away from both companies if no merger... and run fast.

P.S. - You shouldn't make general assumptions like you did about me, it just makes you look like an asshole. Not to mention... wrong.

-

The previous post was from me.

Brian R. said:
>>>YOU CANNOT SUE THE FCC.

This is true and not true -- you can't "sue" them individually, but you can appeal their decisions in Federal Court, through lawsuits. An example of this is the NAB's lawsuit recently filed against the FCC over their decision to loosen the newspaper-broadcast cross-ownership rules.

http://www.broadcastingcable.com/article/CA6538120.html

XM and Sirius can file a suit against any decision handed down by the FCC regarding their merger attempt.

---

I think Howard will re-sign in some form in three years. He likely will only be "live" in the afternoons, but will replay it all day. He actually has talked more and more about it lately on his show. I'm sure he will do less shows, and I wouldn't be surprised if the show is cut down some or even if he takes off a Monday too, but the show remain "live" in some other format, without Howard. This will enable a form of hand-off to continue the show when he actually does retire for good. Howard has a huge ego, and I guarantee he will want his channels to continue after he stops working. To work, he will have to get someone to take over his show. Yes, this is all speculation on my part, but I think it makes a lot of sense.

But in the end, I believe Howard will resign in some capacity in three years, and yea, since it will be afternoons, and probably less shows with more vacation, it will be for a lot less money. Certainly, there will be no more stock option offers. That only cuts it only to $80 million a year. I suspect he will sign for a lot less than that too. But if he returns in any capacity, the vast majority of the fans who signed up for him will be happy.

Bill Bennett said:
>>>Sirius has been growing much faster for 2 years now, and is even beginning to catch up on the OEM side.

Actually, XM began pulling away on the OEM side again in the last quarter... XM out Grossed Sirius for the first time in a year, led mostly by increases on the OEM side. In fact, XM added 34,000 more NET OEM subs than Sirius in Q1.

Howard Howard Howard

He will re-sign. He is talking about afternoons already and this is good enough for his 8 million hardcore fans. He will also sort out the other channels. He needed to spend a couple of years getting his show sorted out. Now he will work on the other channels and make SIRIUS so much better that XM that there will be no contest. Merger or not SIRIUS wins!!!!

Homer my man:
NET MEANS NOTHING!

Tom C. said:
>>>Wow, talk about gas for the fire. Stack and Homer can tell us why this all wrong. How XM should pull out from the merger, and is really better off than Sirius

Stack said:
>>>It was a stupid deal at the outset, but with SIRI's Q1, it looks even more stupid today. It is time for XM to bail out of this deal.

homer985 or A.C. said:
>>>P.S. - You shouldn't make general assumptions like you did about me, it just makes you look like an asshole. Not to mention... wrong.

OK, sorry....I hit only .500

ELLEN CAN MERGE....

WHY CAN'T SIRIUS AND XM?????

It's not about SIRIUS vs. XM -- STOP FALLING INTO THE TRAP!!!

It's ABOUT SIRIUS & XM vs. the WORLD.

I just think we'll colonize Mars before it happens.

I understand a lot of Sirius subs are now comming from XM OEM conversions. The technology now exists that seamlessly allows current XM subscribers to change the XM reciever that came with his car... over to Sirius, for only around $150. TSS radio sells a ton of these for GM, Hyundai, Honda, etc..

What. You've mentioned Howard but have failed to turn it into a Howard vs. O&A rant.This is a serious break in the posting pattern. Come on, there must be some way to tie who's funnier into it.

Something happened yesterday and that is all i can say for now. It had nothing to do with the FCC. I want no part of holding XM stock i see it as to much of a risk.

Could the FCC just have other ideas for the satellite radio spectrum??? Maybe they just want to bleed these companies until they die, then auction off the spectrum to another company.

Come on John....what has happened to sharing? Just whisper....no one will tell. LOL TV

Dammit John! I told you not to talk to these crackers....keep your mouth shut

That's a lot of complete speculation on your part.

More likely? Stern goes back to FM once his Sirius deal is over. Sirius collapses.

>>> In fact, XM added 34,000 more NET OEM subs than Sirius in Q1.

The significance of this is being lost, I believe, on a lot of people. As retail continues its demise, however, the importance of OEM will become apparent to everyone.

Yes, OEM subs that came with the vehicle, then converted to Sirius once the trial period ended. Very costly to Xm.

Yes, Xm oem subs that came with the vehicle, then converted to Sirius once the trial period ended. Very costly to Xm.

Roger,

If Howard has 8 million hardcore fans, how come only 1 million of them moved to Sirius with him?

Hey Roger

Just because Sirius has 8 million "subscribers" doesn't mean they're all Howard fans...

You weren't serious, were you? You couldn't have been.

That Homer...He has all the answers...LOL

He thinks himself to be scholarly. LOL

The growth in satellite radio is not about the "stern effect" anymore. That phenomonon is long over. It is about the collective and compelling content overall; over that of the competition, (terrestrial radio) that's growing it now. Stern is not as important as he once was.

XM would have to add 140$ of Siri's adds to achieve the same revenue. May XM add more subs Q3, 2008.... possibly. Will the net or gross revenue exceed Sirius..... no.

Cash flow buckos......Homer (I mean Jacoby) is an XM shill.

XM would have to add 140% of Siri's adds to achieve the same revenue. May XM add more subs Q3, 2008.... possibly. Will the net or gross revenue exceed Sirius..... no.

Cash flow buckos......Homer (I mean Jacoby) is an XM shill.

The previous post coming from the same plowboy douchebag that predicted that Sirius would "overtake" XM in total subs in Q2 2008 -- then later changed to Q3... now he's saying that XM may add more than Sirius in Q3, but that its no big deal now because cash flow is all that matters. Which ironically is the same thing that I've been screaming about on several different message boards for over 2 years now?!?!? Go figure. Meanwhile XM's FCF was significantly higher than Sirius' in Q1 2008, as well as in 2007.

But that doesn't surprise me... plowboy also predicted that XM would go bankrupt in Q3 last year -- as well as that he was 80% sure that Mel was going to walk away from the XM merger... over a year ago. Still waiting for both of those predictions plowboy...

The previous post coming from the same plowboy douchebag that predicted that Sirius would "overtake" XM in total subs in Q2 2008 -- then later changed to Q3... now he's saying that XM may add more than Sirius in Q3, but that its no big deal now because cash flow is all that matters. Which ironically is the same thing that I've been screaming about on several different message boards for over 2 years now?!?!? Go figure. Meanwhile XM's FCF was significantly higher than Sirius' in Q1 2008, as well as in 2007.

But that doesn't surprise me... plowboy also predicted that XM would go bankrupt in Q3 last year -- as well as that he was 80% sure that Mel was going to walk away from the XM merger... over a year ago. Still waiting for both of those predictions plowboy...

** hiccup **

OBVIOUS POST, OBVIOUS POST, STATE THE OBVIOUS, OBVIOUS POST, WRITE SOMETHING WE DON'T KNOW, OBVIOUS POST OBVIOUS POST, OBVIOUS POST, STATE THE OBVIOUS, OBVIOUS POST, WRITE SOMETHING WE DON'T KNOW, OBVIOUS POST OBVIOUS POST, OBVIOUS POST, STATE THE OBVIOUS, OBVIOUS POST, WRITE SOMETHING WE DON'T KNOW, OBVIOUS POST OBVIOUS POST, OBVIOUS POST, STATE THE OBVIOUS, OBVIOUS POST, WRITE SOMETHING WE DON'T KNOW, OBVIOUS POST OBVIOUS POST, OBVIOUS POST, STATE THE OBVIOUS, OBVIOUS POST, WRITE SOMETHING WE DON'T KNOW, OBVIOUS POST OBVIOUS POST, OBVIOUS POST, STATE THE OBVIOUS, OBVIOUS POST, WRITE SOMETHING WE DON'T KNOW, OBVIOUS POST

...and Plowboy is a SIRI shill. Worst one I've ever encountered.

While we're at it, let's look at Plowboy's past predictions that failed worse than any analyst:

1) Merger set, approved and done by 1st Q '07, later changed to 3rd Q, then who knows
2) SIRI outperforming XM in OEM's by 2nd Q '07
3) SIRI retail still netting over 100k units by 1st Q '08 (psst, retail is dead)
3) NASCAR netting 800k subs from XM to SIRI in 1st Q '07 (only off by ~600k)
4) SIRI net ad revenue cracking $500k by 4th Q '07 due to Stern channels
5) SIRI CFFO by 2nd Q '06, and FCF by 1st Q '07

I dont' dislike you Plowboy, but Homer's record is far better than yours could ever hope to be. Take that for what it is.

I want satellite radio to live on, whether or not the merger goes through. I have been an XM subscriber since 2003, and I love the service. Sirius has content that I like, as well.

The OEM channel is the key to long-term survival, though, since retail is basically a turd for both. With the economy the way it is, and with auto sales trends shifting, I think XM stands to benefit because of their manufacturer alliances (I'll take GM/Toyota/Honda/Hyundai over Chrysler/Ford/Germany/Jag/Kia anyday) since conversions can't really account for THAT much growth.

Many folks doing conversions are probably early adopters that already have a competitor's service but were locked into the other due to the OEM install anyway. I hate to say it, but a casual satrad listener wouldn't go through the "trouble," they'll just plug in their ipod and go...

I just want satellite radio to go on. I want talk radio from Premiere/Clear Channel, I want commercial free music programming, I want O&A and Howie to co-exist. I want NCAA sports, NFL, NHL, MLB, NASCAR, NBA - in that order.

And from my perspective, I hope that channels from each retain their personality, but I fear that consolidation will take its toll, and that could be what kills the concept in the long run..