The Sirius Satellite Radio and XM Satellite Radio could be nearing its final stages with in the next 30-60 days, with the probability of a favorable ruling being greater than 50%, according RBC Capital Markets analyst David Bank.
In a client note issued today, David Bank wrote that the Department of Justice ruling could come within the next 30-60 days. Generally, the DOJ starts a 30-day "shot clock" that ends in a final decision once parties have complied with the Second Request. Both Sirius and XM certified they are in compliance with the Second Request yesterday.
While it's possible for DOJ to stop the clock, RBC wrote that their sources "indicate odds don't favor DOJ pushing for prolonged extension."
RBC sources also indicated that the DOJ "has reasonable room to rule that XM/SIRI competes in a broader audio entertainment market."
The FCC will obviously still weigh in on the merger itself, but historically the FCC doesn't give a conflicting ruling against the DOJ. With the added public interest benefit of Sirius-XM's a la carte pricing, RBC puts the probability of favorable ruling at over 50%.
Its time to bear down ......
I believe that both the DOJ and the FCC are cognizant to the fact that if this merger doesn't go through one or both companies will fail to continue on in their current shape or will be purchased by another media or telecom conglomerate. This media 'satellite radio' is a competitor with other types of media and is not alone within its own category. At the end of the day you will see the merger happen, but most likely with some additional restrictions placed on the merged entity.
With the added public interest benefit of Sirius-XM's a la carte pricing,
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How is this in the "public interest"? What sort of "public interest" is tiers of service that will cost more per channel than the current offering?
i wonder what the merged name is gonna be...if it indeed does happen.
XiruM...a cure for the common radio
well, the public, who the FCC and DOJ are suppossed to protect, are IN FAVOR of the merger---(as per letters to fcc from individuals, groups representing millions in members--many of them minorities, and others) It seems like the DOJ has the ammo to approve
How is this in the "public interest"? What sort of "public interest" is tiers of service that will cost more per channel than the current offering?
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Because its' demand driven Jeff. You only pay for the channels you will listen to. Your argument is a weak one. Plus, at the end of the day it's YOUR choice to pay for radio. If you don't want to then don't...Very Simple! If you don't want to pay then just listen to commercial filled terrestrial radio.
It will be satellite delivered f.m. radio with all the restrictions that go with it.. This was the one thing I didn't want to see happen and it more that likely will... Even though both services are pay services and XM has the ability to lock certain channels out, they will in the end be forced to clean up the language on all the channels, including the comedy channels...
>> How is this in the "public interest"? What sort of "public interest" is tiers of service that will cost more per channel than the current offering?
It's called economies of scale and the DOJ and FCC are well aware of how that works. But the reality is that most people - and we're talking the people who don't read Orbitcast - really only listen to a few channels. And many of them aren't the "premium" channels.
So it really will be in the interest of many consumers.
The Hoff disagrees. Because you can easily lockout stations, two birds, one stone. A la Carte pricing eases the way for merger bc of comsumer benefit, and also doesnt allow the fcc to censor in the result of merger passing. Bc the NAB will surely whine about it.
Gary, Millions did not express their support for the merger, only a meager few thousand. These groups you speak of are mostly organizations of as little as one person. I for one have zero support for the merger. It will cost me more money to keep what I have now and should I want to take advantage of any al la carte channels I'd have to give up my beloved Inno & buy yet another radio.
Matt, it's my choice to pay for radio but right now I have the option of paying XM or Sirius depending on the content, hardware, reception & service. If they merge I have one option, listen to the new monoploy or drop it, losing about $1,000 in hardware. Great choice.
I also think the bastardization of the services by al la carte detracts severely from the service. What's so great is that there's something for everyone and you'll find yourself listening to & enjoying channels you never thought you would. But with a la carte, most will never subscribe to the whole package and may be disappointed in the experience because of that.
I'm looking at satellite t.v. and their "pre-package" packaging and am so stumped at why they don't go completely ala carte and then realize that if they did a lot of channels would simply be dropped because of so little lack of interest from subscribers.. would the same hold true for the radio channels??.. I wish satellite t.v. would do what the radio say they will do.. What's my point? There isn't one.. there is no point to any of this.. The merger is dead...
Thanks for very interesting article. btw. I really enjoyed reading all of your posts. It’s interesting to read ideas, and observations from someone else’s point of view… makes you think more.
So please keep up the great work. Greetings.