wall street == casino with a diploma.

This whole thing is a scam. An insider's game.

More ups and downs and turnarounds than a hooker in Vegas.

Ryan, do you have these posts randomized to appear every 67 minutes?

OH...just KILL ME ALREADY! lol

THis just keeps getting better and better. Because of this INSANE delay, Sirius has never had a decent pop from the merger hype. And NOW...on the verge of the merge....ALL the analysts are bashing it.

I have never been in a stock with so much potential and yet experience so much hatred before. Unbelievable.

@waitwhat Ha! I wish I was that organized. :)

i have said this from day one of this idiotic idea, and that is that even merged they still have massive debt and have yet to show a profit over 6 years later and at some point the cash cow will die and no more money, no more satellite radio. I love satellite radio, but being a realist, I jut don't see much of a chance of survival of satellite unless some one buys out the company and pays off the debt and give Stern a massive pay cut, then they have a chance.

Articles like this REALLY REALLY PISS me off !!!!!!!! Why the phuck is it that every time
a Goldman Sachs or BOA analyst has a negative opinion it's spread all over the newswires
and appears everywhere in print. And the tone of the article makes it appear that
ALL THE ANALYSTS are negative like Goldman and BOA !!!!!!

THE FACT IS PER YAHOO , ONLY 2 FIRMS HAVE A SELL RATING ON SIRIUS.
90% OF THE ANALYST'S HAVE A STRONG BUY, BUY OR HOLD RATING.

RECOMMENDATION TRENDS
Strong Buy 6
Buy 5
Hold 7
Underperform 1
Sell 1

Like Cramer Admitted when he was with a Hedge Fund and they wanted to short
a stock and have the price go down. JUST SPREAD EVERY IMAGINABLE NEGATIVE
RUMOR EVERYWHERE AND KEEP SPREADING NEGATIVE RUMORS. Well obviously
that tactic works very well in ruining shareholder value !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

what really pisses me off is the Analyst;s that are positive on the stock
are not talking up the stock like they should be .

Analysts!?

There are no good analysts anymore. everone of them react to the smallest amount of news. Just last week the analists were saying that the market has seem to have hit the bottom and will start to rise. Now today they are saying that the worst is yet to come.

They are as bad as all the news reporters now. Did you notice that the newspapers and news stations seem to have stories that rival the Inquirer. Do we need to hear about Lindsey Lohan and Brittnay Spears 24/7. Everything in todays world seems to be this BIG IMPORTANT NEWS STORY.

Everyone needs to calm down, Ignore those that deem themselves self important and all knowing, and get on with life.

Analists are just as full of CR&* as anyone else. Do your own research, or find an investment group that will work for you instead of trying to make a big name for themselves. The bigger they are the more cr$* they deal out.

And diversify!

"Show us the money?" What money? The only way these companies independently have raised anu operating funds sufficient to cover their costs is either through diluting their stock base or by going to their "rich" relatives and borrowing from them, or - and i find this really funny - getting a title loan on the satellites and making payments in order to be able to use it. In other words, these companies are borrowing their asses off and no one seems to be bothered by it. Merger doesn't make this go away. The reason these companies have lost their lustre is because there is noting fundamentally sound underpinning these organizations.

Did you expect different? Look at who the principals are and were - Sirius: Joe Clayton - the great thinker behind Global Crossing; Nate Davis and Gary Parsons and other senior staff at XM: MCI and XO Communications. What do the track records of these folks tell you? I know what they tell me - GET OUT, GET OUT WHILE YOU CAN.

I'm sure that if Jeff Skilling were available or even Bernie Ebbers, they to would be in the executive suites of these companies. Too bad that they're otherwise occupied and unavailable for the next few years.

Show me the money? - Please, let's not kid ourselves.

Just enjoy the programming and hope you can recoup your hardware investment.

"Show us the money?" What money? The only way these companies independently have raised anu operating funds sufficient to cover their costs is either through diluting their stock base or by going to their "rich" relatives and borrowing from them, or - and i find this really funny - getting a title loan on the satellites and making payments in order to be able to use it. In other words, these companies are borrowing their asses off and no one seems to be bothered by it. Merger doesn't make this go away. The reason these companies have lost their lustre is because there is noting fundamentally sound underpinning these organizations.

Did you expect different? Look at who the principals are and were - Sirius: Joe Clayton - the great thinker behind Global Crossing; Nate Davis and Gary Parsons and other senior staff at XM: MCI and XO Communications. What do the track records of these folks tell you? I know what they tell me - GET OUT, GET OUT WHILE YOU CAN.

I'm sure that if Jeff Skilling were available or even Bernie Ebbers, they to would be in the executive suites of these companies. Too bad that they're otherwise occupied and unavailable for the next few years.

Show me the money? - Please, let's not kid ourselves.

Just enjoy the programming and hope you can recoup your hardware investment.

Glad to see Mark Wienkes understands that XM and Sirius should NOT be equally valued. This isn't a merger of equals. Sirius is kicking XMs ass, and this is obviously a takeover of XM by Sirius. Glad to finally see some official word on this from Goldman Sachs. They understand at least. Sirius = Buying XM. XM & 0.0 = Soon to be gone.

Please!

More Danica Patrick, fewer analysts.

This may well be the most important post ever written here at Orbitcast. All the silly in-fighting we've done over the years (XM v. Sirius, merge v. monopoly, O&A v. Stern, deep play-lists v. hits-oriented, DJs v. no DJs, etc.) pales in comparison to the one argument that means anything: will people pay for radio, Yes v. No. In the early days, most early adopters fell in love with the content and technology, and sincerely believed that "if people hear it, they'll be unable to resist". I know I did. That (IMHO) turned out to be wrong. As OEM penetration rates become more significant, we see that half of those exposed, say, "ehh, no big deal". Most of us thought the 20 million subscribers (between the 2 companies) would be only the beginning, as we celebrated rapid adoption rates that blew DVDs and CD's away. These reports shows that 20 million might be the natural size of the market.

One can (and I'd imagine StackPointer will) argue that the root problem is overspending on content (driven primarily by Sirius in Stack's view). I disagree, but my argument would be based on expecting a larger market, which I was wrong about. regan seems to think it's all a conspiricy aimed at bankrupting him personally (and that the merger needs to be completed for his personal financial benefit). This industry will be changing a lot in the next few years as the impacts of poor management and changing conditions take their toll. I have no idea what Sirius and/or XM will look like in 3 years, but I'm sure they'll be different. Better in some ways, not so good in others. I'm looking forward to Orbitcast's coverage.

4-5 years ago lots of people were hesitant to get into SatRadio, asking, "will the companies survive?" I was a lot more confident saying yes then, than I am now.

One more thing to all the Sirius stock holder,

Remember that with big risk come big reward (or big let down). SIrius & XM are big risks with big potential, Once we get over the FCC hurdle, big reward will come.

It is because Sirius & XM are on a pinicle milestone that has everyone teetering up and down. I am holding and not panicing on every bit of news. It would drive me crazy, and a bad reacation, especially selling low, will only hurt me.

I bought in before there were even merger talks, because I beleved in Sirius. That hasn't changed. Just wish the FCC would make up their minds, either way. Sirius was a buy back then, and the only thing that changed in my opinion, is that a bunch of people got in for the quick buck, and are panicing and selling, thinking they will lose it all otherwise.

Don't Panic, take a breath, and urge the FCC to make a decesion.

PS. I don't think there is going to be this big POP that everyone is hoping for. Because upon a positive announcement, there is going to be a lot of selling as the stock rises keeping to a gentle rise.

PPS. Free advise is worth what you pay for it.

>>> One can (and I'd imagine StackPointer will) argue that the root problem is overspending on content (driven primarily by Sirius in Stack's view).

The problem is so much bigger, and more complex, than your remark suggests.

The overspending on content was fueled by different things at the two companies -- at Sirius, they spent the billion on Stern & NFL thinking it would bring enough subscribers to take them to profitability, which it didn't and cannot and could not have.

At XM, overspending was a function of management's over-confidence in its growth forecast. Had growth materialized the way they, and most of us, thought it would, XM would have been in excellent shape today. You cannot blame this on SIRI, although I don't think XM would have done it had SIRI not gone nuts with Stern and NFL. XM's management is responsible for XM's actions, however.

The basic problem, for both companies, is one of failed marketing. Had they had top flight marketing people at Sirius the overspending would never have been "necessary". Had XM had first-rate marketing people, they could have sustained their growth and the increased expenses wouldn't have been nearly so much of a problem.

"But it's the concern of transforming from a retail-based business model to an OEM-driven model that seems to be the most troublesome, according to TheStreet. "

This line alone makes me laugh my ass off.

XM and Sirius were *NEVER* a retail business, period! It has always been about OEM, because the business was built on the fact that commuters (read: cars) wanted something better than radio. More than 80% of all listeners are in the vehicle, not in homes or where retail believed they wanted it to be.

How could this very *BASIC* fundamental of the business get so horribly screwed up.

-----------------

Anonymous Coward wrote: "Glad to see Mark Wienkes understands that XM and Sirius should NOT be equally valued. This isn't a merger of equals. Sirius is kicking XMs ass, and this is obviously a takeover of XM by Sirius. Glad to finally see some official word on this from Goldman Sachs."

Wrong! Sirius isn't kicking anyones ass. As an investment, Sirius is slightly worse off than XM. Do some research, read the financials. *BOTH* companies are not doing well as an investment. Period.

Excellent comments. While I agree with you on marketing failures of both companies, I think the problems are even broader. But you point is absolutely dead on. Overspending and lack of a clearly defined message. Look at it this way, some of Apple's best commercials never mentioned the product, - i.e., dancing figure with an outline of an i-pod and white cord leading to figure's ears. THat was spectacular - or the I'm cool MAV vs. Old and staid PC. Simple, easy to understand and EFFECTIVE. Just look at the traffic at any Apple store in any mall. It's the busiest store in the mall.

Stack and Roadrunner: Good posts. Stack, I know you get a lot of flack for some of the things you say here, but your posts on overspending and a lack of foresight by Sirius and XM's management are dead-on.

All you need to do is look these business to see that "king content" alone does not guarantee business success. Content is ALWAYS important, but more important is financial responsiblity in acquiring such content. Sirius and XM have substantially cannibalized their financials by the stupidity of Clayton vs Panero, as well as the content wars. Plain and simple.

The horrible lack of forcing car companies to make satellite radio STANDARD equipment has also taken its toll. SDARS is a vehicle business, period. It has uses in homes and businesses as well, but the car was the key business model....getting it in the hands of as many commuters as possible, as cheaply as possible (because FM sucks!!). They have failed horribly to do this in the first 3 years, and now with all the alternatives available, it is too late.

I am still a die-hard listener, but as an former investor, I am appalled at the financial disasters these two companies have become....and now a merger to try to save face.

Mel Karmizen needs to get involved with Steve Jobs and hire him as a marketing and business consultant for Siri-Xm.

FWIW, XM and Sirius have ALWAYS pre-announced an earnings date -- and neither has done so yet. XM did indicate that they would delay an earnings release as late as possible, in order for the merger to close. Obviously, that is unlikely to happen.

I do not believe that the dates given by The Street are correct -- as they have not been officially announced and further, because XM hasn't pre-announced a date yet.

My guess is that if the merger isn't finalized before the end of April -- then both XM and Sirius will pre-announce and hold their earnings conference calls the week of May 5-9.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Regarding this Street article... the writer had an obvious predisposed agenda PRIOR to even writing the article... he made numerous assumptions and took the "glass is half empty" position in every statement -- rather than attempting to be an objective reporter, commenting on both sides of the story. An obvious example is what I just said above... rather than picking up a phone and calling XM/Sirius to ask about their earnings release dates -- he assumed what he heard was correct... even though it isn't.

That is not a good reporter/columnist.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Anonymous Coward said,
>>>This isn't a merger of equals. Sirius is kicking XMs ass, and this is obviously a takeover of XM by Sirius

The only problem with the above statement is that XM holders are getting 50.3% of the equity in Sirius and the majority of the seats on the new Board. Ask yourself something, if you own a business and want to take over your competition -- do you give up 50% or more of the equity in your company to your competition, PLUS give up the majority of the seats on your Board to them? That makes zero sense if it is a takeover.

Statements like that are ignorant... which explains why the poster was an "anoymous coward".

With a combined debt of 3 billion, what future lies with Satellite Radio? Look at HD Radio's complete failure - consumers do not want to spend money on new radios, or pay on-going subscriptions. As Mark Ramsey pointed out, Satellte Radio is still just another form of terrestrial radio, and we know where that is headed. Radio is just radio, and it is being overtaken by iPods, cell phones, the Internet, Last.fm, Slacker, Pandora, etc. Our three new cars can with standard Sirius, but we refuse to subscribe after our trial period. Why, in Hell would I want to dish out $50/month, just more of the same crap that is found on terrestrial radio. BTW - we keep getting those desperate calls from some Sirius robot to subscribe, so I just hang up.

Great point. I tried HD radio from Crutchfield and returned it a week later. Nothing much to speak of there. But to the larger point, 3b of debt - actually more than that. What does that say about the busoness model for these/this company near term, long term, whatever?

To me it says noting good.

Sure, we'll see spikes in the pps from time to time, like today, but I think these companies are doomed and that's a shame.

I have XM in my car that hasn't been turned off since I bought it. I'm not paying for it, but it is still active. Am I being counted as a sub? I do have Sirius that is plugged into my aux. Surprisingly, or may be not, I cancelled that one too 6+ mos ago, but it still keeps going strong.

These are just not businesses.

Good post homer, and I agree that I am also a little pessimistic, "glass half empty" in my observations of XM/SIRI as an investment.

I understand that whether they merge or not, they WILL eventually make money. It's just that it has taken far, far longer than it should have, and management should have been much better focused.

Regarding the combined debt...

There's apparently a new research note out today from Tom Watts at Cowen addressing this... Savitz has a blog today about it.

"Where there's smoke there's fire", I've learned. Watts used very specific estimates for the XM debt refinancing -- he likely didn't pull his estimated Coupon info out of thin air. He needed something to base it on.

http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2008/04/22/sirius-xm-re-finance-issue-overblown-cowen-says

>>> Where there's smoke there's fire", I've learned. Watts used very specific estimates for the XM debt refinancing -- he likely didn't pull his estimated Coupon info out of thin air. He needed something to base it on.

You're probably right, and he is probably getting some input from company sources on this.

They'll probably be able to come up with it, but honestly a person would have be nuts to lend these guys money -- unless they can get all the existing debt subordinated or at least get things recollateralized so as to give some kind of liquidation priority to the new creditor.

This delay is exactly what the FCC has done in the past to kill deals. Remember when XM wanted to buy WCS ? It wasn't denied, it wasn't approved. it just rotted on the vine until it went away.

Mel might just give in....years ago he paid off Howard's fines instead of fighting them because the FCC had stopped moving on all of CBS's other needs...so he gave in.

Stack Pointer said,
>>>They'll probably be able to come up with it, but honestly a person would have be nuts to lend these guys money -- unless they can get all the existing debt subordinated or at least get things recollateralized so as to give some kind of liquidation priority to the new creditor.

This is exactly what I'm thinking. Remember what XM did in 2006 (or thereabouts) during their last bit of refinancing? They turned almost all of their Notes into Unsecured debt. That obviously can (and probably will) change to Secured debt. That is a card the companies can play.

So I agree... who would lend them money? Well, if the noteholder is unsecured against the assets -- I'd bet they'd be willing to not Put the debt on the company in exchange for a refinancing... which would include securing it against the assets.

Doberman has more info on what Watts said on his site. I think Watts is hearing some things floating around and just reporting it. And I tend to agree with him -- XM/Sirius do have a couple cards that they can play to get the debt refinanced.

I wouldn't be surprised if Watts' comments (coupled with the news of the Banks in the Clear Channel LBO starting to cave in some, today) is the reason that XM and Sirius were up so much.

>> And I tend to agree with him -- XM/Sirius do have a couple cards that they can play to get the debt refinanced.

I don't think they would be this far down the merger road without having reasonable confidence they could get the refinancing handled. But I sure as hell wouldn't lend them money without some decent security.

Of course, they have big, substantially appreciated assets in the spectrum/licenses, that on the books at cost rather than their current FMV -- so, there is equity there that it is easy to overlook. Like some others, I think that spectrum has a hell of a lot more value today than the $80M or whatever they paid for it.