October 31, 2007

Jesse Jackson opposes Sirius, XM merger

Wednesday, October 31, 2007 at 7:31 PM

Jesse JacksonThe Reverend Jesse Jackson today at an FCC hearing on localism voiced his opinions on the potential competitive harms he feels could come to minorities should the Sirius-XM merger be approved.

"The proposed Sirius-XM merger would eliminate the potential of any meaningful competition in the satellite radio market, which would, in turn, permanently block the potential for diversity of ownership and control by minorities in the only medium capable of nationwide broadcasting," said Jackson.

Jackson continued, "I urge this commission to view this proposed transaction - as it is currently structured - not in the public interest. It will eliminate diversity of content and meaningful opportunities for minority partnership in media ownership. This cannot happen. This commission must uphold the statutes and regulations that promote content diversity and opportunities for media ownership by minorities."

"The commission should seize the opportunity presented by this transaction to make a difference that serves the best interests of all concerned: Sirius and XM in their objectives, the marketplace and diversified ownership and competition, and the public's right of access to benefit from varied programming that is appropriate and feasible," Jackson continued.

"The proposed transaction would result in the business combination of the two most significant and largest companies in satellite communications. In effect, this creates a monopoly, virtually making competition impossible and programming dangerously subject to the combined entity's self-interests and whim. This puts the public at a disadvantage. It has the potential of serious economic havoc on any business attempting to be a part of this marketplace and to the communities of which these businesses serve," said Jackson.

This is in direct opposition to the opinion of the NAACP, which came out in favor of the merger earlier this year, stating that a merged satellite radio company would "strengthen its commitment to diversity."

As we near the final stretch of this high profile merger, it looks like things are really starting to heat up.

[Radio Ink]

Peck: Sirius' growth strong; merger by year end

Wednesday, October 31, 2007 at 11:17 AM

SIRIBear Stearns analyst Robert Peck issued a client note this morning stating that growth of Sirius remains strong, and they still expect the merger to be approved by year-end.

Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (SIRI) stock dropped roughly 9% yesterday amid concerns that the DOJ process would be extended. But its Bear Stearns' view that the merger remains on-track and will close by year-end. Peck reiterated his Outperform rating, adding "Sirius could be worth about $5.50/share at YE'08."

Peck was also impressed with Sirius' results announced yesterday, with the company having had beat out many of Bear Stearns' estimates (sans total revenue which was impacted by higher than expected OEM gross adds).

Sirius' stock is up 3.65% this morning,

October 30, 2007

Proxy advisory firm recommends Sirius/XM merger vote

Tuesday, October 30, 2007 at 10:45 PM

Sirius/XM VoteGlass, Lewis & Co., a leading independent proxy advisory firms, has recommended that stockholders of XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. (XMSR) and Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (SIRI) vote "FOR" the companies' merger proposals.

According to Glass Lewis's analysis, "the transaction is fairly priced and will yield substantial cost synergies for shareholders of both companies." As a result, Glass Lewis believes that the "proposed merger is in the interests of shareholders of both companies."

I'm not a shareholder of either company (never have been, never will be), but I know a lot of you are. So I'm curious, how will you vote?

Satellite Radio Subscribers: Running the numbers

Tuesday, October 30, 2007 at 2:35 PM

This might very well be the last quarter that we will be comparing XM and Sirius subscriber numbers, as two separate companies at least. So, let's get to it before time runs out and we're forced to hold hands and sing Kumbaya together.

And because pictures are much easier to look at than a matrix of mind-numbing digits, here's some charts to help us along.

Total Satellite Radio Subscribers

  • Sirius Satellite Radio: 7,667,476
  • XM Satellite Radio: 8,570,000

satellite-radio-subscribers.gif
Here we see the total cumulative subscribers starting from the fourth quarter of 2001. Now the interesting thing to note is that in the past two quarters, Sirius has been consistently three-quarters behind XM.

In other words, Sirius is currently where XM was in 4Q06 (~7.6M). In the 2nd-quarter of this year, Sirius was where XM was in 3Q06 (~7.1M).

Remember, there's a seasonality in retail which historically sees a spike in Q4. So this may not be a fair comparison. The killer question is whether either company has the momentum to have a stellar holiday season this year to make a difference. So far, the signs have not been encouraging.


Quarterly Net Subscribers

  • Sirius Satellite Radio: 524,938
  • XM Satellite Radio: 315,000

Quarterly Net Satellite Radio Subscribers
Here there can be no question that Sirius is out pacing XM. For nearly two years, Sirius has had more net subscriber additions than XM has. The most notable being in 4Q06 where Sirius simply destroyed XM in net additions.


Quarterly Gross Subscribers

  • Sirius Satellite Radio: 999,284
  • XM Satellite Radio: 952,000

Quarterly Gross Satellite Radio Subscribers
Gross subscriber additions shows something different. Here we see near parity when it comes to quarterly subscriber growth.

Since gross subscribers scrubs out the effects of churn, and evens out other factors like including together promotional/non-promotional subscribers, here we can gather a better sense of market penetration. So I really do like to look at gross subscribers over net subscribers when looking at how both are performing.

Again, we see that in 4Q06, there was a tipping point where Sirius now leads XM consistently in gross subscriber additions.

Jacoby: "Don't be fooled" by Sirius' subscriber growth

Tuesday, October 30, 2007 at 8:46 AM

Sirius SateliteWhile the subscriber and revenue growth of Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. looks pretty darn impressive, some analysts aren't quite swooning over the numbers, particularly none other than Bank of America's Jonathan Jacoby.

In a client note issued this morning, Jacoby warns investors "don't be fooled."

His reason? SAC and Cash EBITDA were worse than expected, despite higher net subscriber additions and a lower churn rate. Jacoby adds that the higher ramp up of OEM subscriber additions will catch up on the churn rate over time.

Jacoby points out that OEM additions for the quarter are understating churn, as those many automotive subscribers carry an estimated 6-month contract period. So by default, no churn can occur.

Sirius 3Q07 results: Revenue Up 45%; Subs up 50%

Tuesday, October 30, 2007 at 7:42 AM

SiriusSirius Satellite Radio continues its march of amazing growth with the release of its 3Q07 results.

Sirius saw a 45% increase in revenue from 3Q06 to $241.8 million, and subscriber growth of 524,938 net additions during the quarter, driving ending subscribers up 50% year over year.

Sirius ended third quarter 2007 with 7,667,476 subscribers.

Growth came from 64,101 net subscribers from the retail/aftermarket channels and 460,837 from the OEM channel.

Advertising revenue was $8.5 million and ARPU was $10.71. SAC per gross subscriber addition was $103 compared to $114 for the year-ago third quarter. The monthly average all-in customer churn rate was 2.1%.

(I'm stuck on the train right now, so more coverage to come shortly)

UPDATE: I'm back now. No live-blogging of the conference call (sorry) but I'll have a recap of what was discussed soon.

See the full financials after the jump...

Continue reading »

October 29, 2007

Senators praise Satellite Radio for increased choice

Monday, October 29, 2007 at 5:58 PM

XM and Sirius mergerHere comes another round of public support from Capitol Hill, this time from Senators John Ensign (R-NV) and Jim DeMint (R-SC).

The Senators have both praised Sirius and XM for the programming packages and a la carte pricing plans. DeMint stated that "these options will give American consumers more control over the programming they pay for.”

I'm still curious to know why there's this increased support from politicians who have previously remained silent. But for merger advocates, the political pressure is obviously quite welcome.

"Sirius and XM have responded to the market’s desire for more choice, and we applaud them for voluntarily offering subscribers new and innovative listening options. We are particularly pleased that they will offer family-friendly options that allow subscribers to block adult programming,” added DeMint.

"This is a great example of how private industry can and will respond to the demands of consumers without the need for government intervention," said Ensign. "We hope that other entertainment providers will follow XM-Sirius’ lead and offer Americans increased choices and customization."

[XMmerger.com]

Garth Brooks takes over Prime Country

Monday, October 29, 2007 at 2:58 PM

Garth Brooks Radio
Sirius is handing over the reins of Prime Country (ch 61) - Sirius' 80s and 90s country music channel - to country music superstar Garth Brooks.

Garth Brooks will takeover Sirius channel 61 for two week and feature Garth Brooks' music with intros by the artist himself. Brooks will also play some of his favorite tunes and discuss what each means to him.

It's all in celebration of the release of Brooks' new 3-disc set, The Ultimate Hits. The 3-disk pack features 30 Garth classics, 3 new songs and a bonus track on 2 CDs, plus a DVD with 33 videos including new and never-seen-before footage.

Garth Brooks Radio will air from November 5th through November 18th. Hear a few samples from Garth Brooks Radio here.

More Sirius-XM merger support from Congress

Monday, October 29, 2007 at 12:06 PM

XM/Sirius Merger Support
Eleven members of Congress voiced their support for the Sirius-XM merger, in a letter addressed to FCC Chairman Kevin Martin.

The letter was signed by:
Rep. Sanford Bishop (D-GA), Rep. Corrine Brown (D-FL), Rep. Yvette Clarke (D-NY), Rep. Danny Davis (D-IL), Rep. Eliot Engel (D-NY), Rep. Ralph Hall (R-TX), Rep. Alcee Hastings (D-FL), Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY), Rep. Greg Meeks (D-NY), Rep. Bobby Rush (D-IL), and Rep. Edolphus Towns (D-NY).

"...the merger of Sirius and XM will create new opportunities for this type of diverse programming that has been overlooked by terrestrial-radio broadcasters. This merger will allow the companies to offer even more diverse content by consolidating programming and better utilizing capacity to offer even more unique and diverse programming to currently underserved populations."

The timing of this is interesting.

The NAB came out with their own Congress-backing letter to the FCC many months ago. Meanwhile, Sirius-XM lately have seen momentum build on Capitol Hill with support from various lawmakers. Is this a calculated "killing blow" tactic? Or did it just take them this long to garner this level of support?

[Read the letter here (PDF)]

Alicia Keys performs live on Sirius

Monday, October 29, 2007 at 10:36 AM

Alicia KeysSirius will be airing an exclusive performance by Alicia Keys at Sirius' New York City studios on November 9th at 5 pm ET.

"Up Close and Personal with Alicia Keys" will air live on Heart & Soul (ch 51) in celebration of the release of her third studio album, As I Am.

During the one hour special, Alicia Keys will perform songs from As I Am and share stories from the album's two year journey.

As I Am, which debuts worldwide on November 13th, features collaborations with John Mayer, Marsha Ambrosius, Linda Perry, Harold Lilly and many other artists.

Alicia Keys began playing the piano at the age of 7 and writing her own music by the age of 14. She made her debut in 2001 with the release of Songs In A Minor, and subsequently sold over 11 million copies worldwide.

October 2007 (52)