Despite a report from Bear Stearns analyst Robert Peck, who predicts that a DOJ decision could arrive as soon as today or Monday, Bank of America analyst Jonathan Jacoby advises clients to remain "cautious" - deal or no deal.

Jacoby has remained as the devil's advocate throughout the merger proceedings, which is a good thing because it helps keep some of the more irrationally exuberant investors grounded (to a degree). Historically he's been very skeptical of the merger prospects (putting chances of approval roughly around ~30%). The interesting thing in his most recent research note, though, is that Jacoby does not dispute what Peck is reporting.

Much of the Bank of America analyst's conclusions have been based on information from DC contacts, but we don't hear about them in this note. Instead, Jacoby brings to light the high hurdles that XM-Sirius need to overcome to get approval (and there's no denying that this isn't your rubber-stamp kind of merger). If the deal is not approved, he points to significant downside. And even if the deal is approved, he feels there's not much upside.

"However, we are not ‘naïve.’ We think investors will most likely run these stocks post-merger approval," Jacoby notes.

To me, it's a significant development when the naysayers stop saying "nay."

Peck and Jacoby have been on two sides of the coin for this merger. With no significant information coming from BofA's sources disputing the information of Bear Stearns, well, I'd say that's pretty telling.

A decision by the Department of Justice on the merger between Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. and XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. could come as early as today or Monday, according to an analyst note issued this morning.

Bear Stearns analyst Robert Peck issued a research note this morning stating that a decision by the DOJ is imminent. According to Peck, conversations with their contacts in DC suggest that a DOJ decision could come as early as today or Monday.

Further, the Bear Stearns analyst believes that junior staffers at the DOJ are recommending blocking the merger, but that higher officer deputy officials likely disagree with the junior staff recommendation. The analyst expects Tom Barnett likely will rule along with the higher officials and announce that the DOJ will not be blocking the deal.

This is consistent with a Cowen & Co. note issued earlier this month, which also said that Antitrust Chief Tom Barnett is likely to approve the deal, "despite a staff recommendation against the deal."

Bear Stearns' Bob Peck also feels that the FCC has been coordinating its actions with the DOJ, and that an FCC decision will likely come near this year's end.

Sirius will be honoring World AIDS Day this Saturday with a special six-hour broadcast event on Sirius OutQ (ch 109).

This broadcast event unites renowned musicians, leaders from the GLBT community, and listeners from the Sirius OutQ audience for a presentation devoted entirely to the HIV/AIDS epidemic. World AIDS Day is annually observed on December 1st and is dedicated to raising awareness of the global AIDS pandemic caused by the spread of HIV infection.

Larry Flick from "OutQ in the Morning" will host the live 6-hour event: "World AIDS Day 2007: A Celebration of Life and Hope." The special will include musical performances, discussions with medical experts, pioneering activists, and Sirius listeners sharing their perspectives on the ongoing battle against HIV/AIDS and the progress being made in the GLBT community.

In addition, the broadcast will feature an interview with Madonna - not to mention performances by Cyndi Lauper, Indigo Girls, Travis, Joss Stone, Erasure's Andy Bell, Jimmy Somerville, Marc Cohn, Leann Rimes, Littlehorse, and others.

"World AIDS Day 2007: A Celebration of Life and Hope" will air this Saturday, December 1st, from Noon – 6 pm ET.

Just in case the Federal Communications Commission wasn't already aware of it, the Sirius-XM camp has filed an ex parte filing highlighting the NAB's dubious tactics for garnering "support" for their cause.

The counsel for Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. says little else in the filing beyond simply linking to the Washington Post article, but that's really more than enough for them to do. It's better to put the issue on record and let it speak for itself.

It still boggles me that the NAB needed to resort to these "inspirational" tactics so as to generate 8,500 form-letters, when they advocate on behalf of 8,300+ radio/TV stations and networks.

John Gorman said it perfectly in a recent blogpost:

"Is this how your NAB members want their money spent? Is this the image the radio industry wants or needs right about now?"

I would wager to say the answer is a resounding "no" and the NAB will have a lot of explaining to do once this is all over.

[Ex Parte filing (PDF) via SiriusBuzz]

Yesterday, Artie Lange mentioned on "The Howard Stern Show" that he was doing voiceover work for an upcoming Leisure Suit Larry game.

While there has yet to be an official announcement for a new Leisure Suit Larry, Artie did say that he would be playing the role of "Big Al" in the game. Very little other details are known at this time other than what was said on-air. Joytiq points out that the last Leisure Suit Larry game, "Magna Cum Laude," didn't even star the original character and "was an amateur-hour" Larry adventure.

Does this mean that King's Quest is coming back too?

[Joystiq]
Thanks Todd!

The Iowa Brown & Black Presidential Forum, the nation's oldest continuous minority presidential forum, will be broadcast live exclusively on Sirius Satellite Radio.

Co-founded in 1984 by current Iowa State Representative Wayne Ford and Latino Community Leader Mary Campos, the Iowa Brown & Black Presidential Forum gives all candidates the opportunity to answer important questions concerning issues affecting African-American and Latino-Americans.

All eight Democratic presidential candidates are expected to participate.

Mark Thompson, host of "Make It Plain" on Sirius Left, will broadcast his program live from Iowa on Friday, November 30th (5-8pm ET) and talk with members of the community. In addition, Thompson will host special live call-in programs, also on Sirius Left, immediately before and following The Iowa Brown & Black Presidential Forum where listeners will share opinions, comments, and debate.

The Iowa Brown & Black Presidential Forum itself will air live this Saturday, December 1st at 8pm ET on Sirius Left (ch 146).

Wall Street Journal editorial board member Jason Riley talks with Sirius CEO Mel Karmazin and XM Chairman Gary Parsons about their merger plans.

Check out the video below (Email/RSS folks might need to click to watch):

Directed Electronics, Inc.announced this morning that they've extended their contract with Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. - news that has sent the DEIX stock up over 50% today.

Directed said the new contract contains "certain changes" to the handling of customer returns that will enhance cost recovery, reduce uncertainty and volatility with respect to returns and meaningfully improve the predictability of their earnings.

These "certain changes" will go into effect on January 1, 2008.

[Press Release]

Representative Rick Boucher (D-VA) wrote a piece that ran in both the Washington Times (yesterday) and a similar piece that ran in BusinessWeek (a week or so ago).

In both, Boucher dismisses antitrust concerns by building a case as to why satellite radio is part of a greater "audio entertainment" market, and argues that the Sirius-XM merger would benefit listeners.

"At first blush, one might conclude that a combination of the only two providers of this satellite-based service would be an obvious antitrust abridgement. In fact, the 'bumper sticker-like' campaign of merger opponents stresses the harm of a 2-to-1 combination.

The reality of the relevant market, however, is both more subtle and more compelling."

I think that's the basis of this entire argument. Whether you consider satellite radio to be within its own silo, or whether you feel that satellite radio directly competes with other audio mediums.

Rep. Boucher addresses this debate in his piece, talking about his view of the competitive landscape:

"[Regulators] often ask, 'How far would a person have to drive in order to find a substitute?' In the case of XM and Sirius, consumers don't have to drive anywhere to find a competitive alternative: They just have to hit a different button on their car stereo."

It's that ease of switching between audio mediums that, in my opinion, is the biggest case for the merger. And ultimately, it's what protects the consumer from a combined company abusing "monopolistic" powers.

Aside from the argument about whether or not a merger would create a monopoly (which has been discussed here ad nauseum), I think it's great to see Sirius-XM getting this level of public political support. The NAB is quick to point out that they got X number of Congressmen to sign a document, but there's little in public support coming from those in Capitol Hill for their cause.

[BusinessWeek, Washington Times]

Ford said today that they'll be targeting an approximate 70% factory penetration rate of Sirius radios starting with the 2009 model year vehicles.

In addition, Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. and Ford Motor Company said that they are extending their relationship. Sirius and Ford had previously extended their partnership through 2011, but the exact terms on this deal extension were not announced. We do know that all Ford brands, Lincoln, Mercury, Land Rover, Jaguar, Volvo, and Mazda, are covered by the agreement. So that's good.

Ford had also previously been reluctant to give penetration numbers. With Chrysler at 70%, Mercedes at 90%, and VW/Audio at 80%; everyone has been tapping their collective foot waiting for a commitment from Ford.

At the 3Q07 earnings call, Sirius CEO Mel Karmazin had hinted towards this by saying "there will be an announcement from Ford sometime in the future," and obviously this is it.

And let's not forget Lincoln's installations of Sirius Travel Link as well. A preemptive sign that the Sirius-Ford relationship is nice and healthy.

Over a million Ford, Lincoln and Mercury vehicles have been shipped with Sirius factory-installed. Ford recently launched Sirius on its new Focus, bringing the number of Ford, Lincoln, and Mercury vehicle lines offering factory-installed Sirius to 23.

Sirius equipped vehicles are packaged with a six-month prepaid subscription, and the vehicles covered under this new agreement will be available next year at dealers.