Ouch ouch and ouch. The Motley Fool has declared Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) the absolute worst stock to buy for 2007.

Of course, they are quick to point out that Sirius won Fool's Stock Madness 2005 (hey Fool: I appreciate the linkage by the way!), but attributed that win to be more based on the voter's hearts rather than their wallets. It's undeniable that both satrad stocks are filled with egos and devotion of an almost maniacal fervor.

Fool ends with this as their final qualification:

Even if Sirius does generate a cash profit this Q4, it's still burning through cash at the rate of $550 million over the course of the other three quarters. That means the company will need to continue piling on the debt, or diluting its shareholders with stock issuances -- or both -- to keep its operations running.

They may have a point with this one. Yes, positive free cash-flow is definitely possible (even likely) for Q4, because subscription prepayments are heavier around the holidays. But remember that there's associated expenses with these prepayments (like retailer commissions) and these are paid out in Q1.

But the worst stock for 2007? I'm willing to bet there's others more worthy for this distinction.

NPD Group's November sales data continue to show - once again - a consecutive decline in satellite radio retail demand relative to last year.

For the fourth month in a row, year-over-year retail sales are on the decline - August: -3%; September: -12%; October: -25%; and now for November: unit sales are down 45%.

The Quick Glance:

• Sirius November 2006 Retail Sales:
  Down 45% YoY
• XM November 2006 Retail Sales:
  Down 45% YoY

Marketshare:

• Sirius Nov '06 Retail Marketshare: 59%
• XM Nov '06 Retail Marketshare: 41%

While it's interesting that both Sirius and XM are down 45% from the same period last year, Sirius' retail marketshare jumped up from 56% in October to an impressive 59% in November. A clear indication that Sirius is handling the retail sector much better than XM is (regardless of the fact that NPD doesn't register all retail activity).

Anyone want to make some bets for December? 

Sirius Satellite Radio Chief Financial Officer David Frear gave a snapshot of Sirius' 2007 OEM penetration at today's UBS Global Media & Communications Conference.

DaimlerChrysler will have a 40% overall penetration rate in 2007, up from approximately 30% in 2006. Ford, while they have a non-disclosed penetration rate, will factory-install Sirius in 21 models. Mercedes is targeting over 50% in 2007 and BMW is targeting a higher penetration rate (though I didn't catch a specific number).

Audi/VW is the most aggressive as they're targeting an 80% penetration rate in 2007, and Kia will offer Sirius standard in 2008.

When asked about used car sales, David Frear said that there is an opportunity, but that there are very strict rules regarding using vehicle registration information for marketing purposes. So how do you market to these people? It's a good strategic question that I'm sure both companies are looking at.

Sirius Satellite Radio today lowered their year-end subscriber guidance from 6.3 million, to a new range of 5.9 - 6.1 million.

Mel Karmazin stated that "this year's retail sales results since the Thanksgiving weekend have not been at the pace we had anticipated." Mel essentially hinted towards this move late last week at the Reuters Media Summit in New York.

In August, Sirius increased their year-end subscriber guidance from 6.2 million to 6.3 million net subscribers. To meet this they would have needed to exceed last year's Q4 subscriber additions. Sirius now needs to add 800,000 to 1 million net subscribers to meet this new guidance.

Sirius reiterated that the company's first quarter of positive free cash flow, after capital expenditures, may be reached as early as this quarter.