Here it is - the beginning of the end of 2005. And as always with year-end celebrations, predictions for what's to come in the following year are in order. Who knows if any of these will ever come true, but one thing we do know is that in the kooky and crazy world of satellite radio, 2006 will prove to be one hella ride. So let's pass the peace-pipe around and conjour up ideas for what may or may not be.

Here are my top ten predictions for the satellite radio industry for 2006. Feel free to add your $0.02 (or more) and we can build the perfect predictions list together. Then we can hold hands, do some pushups and maybe a round of yoga together (like Ricky).

Anyway, enough of this palaver! On with the list! Check out my useless satellite radio predictions after the jump...

Sometimes it's amazing how little these people get it when it comes to the future of radio. Jeff Smulyan, chairman and CEO of Emmis Communications, was quoted in Hollywood Reporter: "No one has ever made a penny, anywhere in the world, on subscription-based radio."

Spare me your poisonous barbs! Please, it's not that XM and SIRIUS aren't making money, they just haven't reached CFBE yet. No biggy, wait a year there Jeff.

He goes on to say, "This doesn't mean that Sirius and XM won't make it. ... But even if you take the most wildly enthusiastic estimations of their penetration, they will reach 30 million Americans in the next five years, 40 million. Radio ... will probably still reach 275 million people a week."

I love the spin, as those numbers are not nearly as wildly enthusiastic as he makes them out to be (55 million according to Jupiter Research). But whatever, play your game. If terrestrial radio is truly reaching the 275 million people a week - which, ahem, is based upon Arbitron's wildly enthusiastic "extrapolation" numbers - then realize they're not as captive an audience as satellite radio. Soon, advertisers won't care about your big numbers.

See, advertisers want a captive audience - not necessarily a huge audience - because throwing money at the wall just doesn't cut it anymore. The numbers game is dying, and it will be all about verticals very soon. The world of media is changing: DVRs and VoD are threatening the 30-second spot, blogs and consumer media are threatening mainstream media, and yes satellite radio is threatening the radio landscape.

Come talk to us in five years, see how much you're laughing then.

[PaidContent] 

A group called Morality In Media, who sound like the life at the party, issued today what appears to be the worst press release ever written. Regardless of the writing style, or to the brevity of its headline, these people are calling for Broadcast Indecency Laws to apply for satellite radio.

Citing that since Howard Stern will be on SIRIUS, his show will be "even filthier than it already is." They go on to point out a slew of reasons why Satellite Radio should be subject to FCC regulation, including:

1. The FCC defines 'broadcasting' as an 'intent for public distribution' and whether programming was 'of interest to the general... audience.' (what about the Internet?)
   
2. In the early 1990s, two federal courts upheld a law that prohibited indecent communications for commercial purposes by means of telephone. (Telephone = Satellite Radio?)
3. Even though Satellite Radio is not 'pervasive' - in 1927, when Congress acted the broadcast indecency law, traditional radio wasn't 'pervasive' either. (80 year old arguement)
   
4. Even though parents can block channels, they may not understand English, have a physical or mental disability, or are even just naive. (so the government must do the work for them!)
   
5. ...and more
   

Agree or disagree? Feel free to voice your comments here, or if you're so inclined - give a call to Robert Peters of Morality In Media at 212-870-3210 - and let him know what you think! While you're at it, let him know how much I appreciate the headline to his release.

[Whether Broadcast From a Tower or a Satellite, It is Still the Public Airwaves, and The Howard Stern Show Should Still Be Subject to Broadcast Indecency Law, Says Morality In Media]

I really just don't know what to make of this. First the Alexa debauchery and now this from Bridge Ratings:

“It would appear now that Sirius satellite radio will not exceed our projections first published in September. After interviewing Stern listeners who actually subscribed to Sirius in October, we are projecting an improving subscriber base of over 800,000 in the fourth quarter, but this number is lower than previously expected. Though pacing is strong for both satellite companies, this quarter will see Sirius surpass XM in quarterly subscriber count!”

Originally, Bridge stated one-million new SIRIUS subscribers in Q4, but it's not the revised projections that's odd, it's the competitive statement. The SIRIUS subscriber predictions are no surprise, with SIRIUS themselves stating a similar number (3+ Million by EOY, up from 2,173,920 subscribers).

What's odd is that Bridge is essentially saying that XM will have under 800,000 subscribers in Q4. Yet XM has reaffirmed continuously that they will break 6 million subscribers (up from 5,034,642 subscribers). What gives? How can a survey of Stern listeners determine the subscriber count for a competing satellite radio service? Where's the data for that? Also, why the survey in cities other than New York (where the Stern following is the greatest)?

It just doesn't add up. 

[Bridge Ratings via R&R]

MSNBC columnist Gary Krawkow strikes again, this time with the incredible statement that "Howard Stern might be leaving terrestrial radio at the wrong time." Ugh. The entire article, seemingly a commercial for iBiquity and their technological breakthrough - HD Radio, talks about how every inch of the Boston Acoustics’ Recepter HD Radio is a modern marvel. And, hold on to your hats kids, that "satellite radio may have some real competition to worry about."

Ugh.

This isn't the first time Mr. Krakow has taken a crack (ho ho!) at satrad. I went off on rant earlier this year when Krakow flip-flopped his story about satellite radio sound quality. And here we go again. Only this time, Gary's comparison does not directly pit satellite radio to HD radio on sound quality, but instead on price. The article eludes to satellite vs HD, but doesn't really do anything but to plug the terrestrial tabletop. Oh sure, the Recepter HD is a mere $500, but heck HD Radio is free man! With XM and SIRIUS you need to pay the obscene price of $13/month! And you don't get the commericals!

[MSNBC] 

Circuit City released their 3Q05 results and saw a total sales increase of 14.7%. The Audio sector alone produced a double-digit comparable sales increase, with a double-digit comparable stores sales increase in mobile audio products - much thanks to growth in their satellite radio products. Hell yeah!

[Press Release]

Thanks gary! 

The NY Times has a nice piece on Bob Dylan joining up with XM Satellite Radio. The graphic to the right make it even more interesting with the NY Times visually pitting Dylan against Stern. Bizarre to someone like myself who's never really been into Dylan, but apparently this is big news - who'da thunk it.

But really, the key compenent noted in the article, is how this shows the similar strategies of both XM and SIRIUS. All the good talent is going to Satellite Radio, and terrestrial radio is just getting the leftovers.

[NY Times] 

Phillips today announced the launch of its Mobile TV DVB-H (aka "Digital Video Broadcast – Handheld") technology. The device gives live access to digital TV via cell phones, portable media players and similar products. 

Now, Phillips worked with Crown Castle Mobile Media to get this to market. And this is what the Crown Castle president, Michael Schueppert, had to say:

"We believe Crown Castle Mobile Media's… ownership of nationwide spectrum will make our planned deployment of a… DVB-H network possible in the United States. Working with companies like Philips, Crown Castle Mobile Media anticipates delivering a…live video and audio programming experience…with digital television and satellite radio—anytime, anywhere—to consumers' handsets, laptops and portable media players in major U.S. markets." 

Huh? Wha? Cat out of bag?

[PC Magazine] 

Has anyone seen the recent Consumer Reports article on Satellite Radio? Some interesting stuff in there. They did a survey and discovered that 71% of respondants are highly satisfied with their satellite radio service. And 89% said they would definitely, or probably, renew their subscription - even though most would rather not pay a monthly fee (who would?).

The only thing disappointing was the extremely limited "Sirius vs. XM" chart at the bottom of the article.

[Consumer Reports] 

There's no doubt the Sirius S50 is a huge leap forward in satellite radio receivers offered by Sirius, but one big request that many people are asking is: when can we have true portable live Satellite Radio?

The answer was given at the Global Media Conference yesterday, by David Freer CFO of Sirius Satellite Radio.

(drumroll please)

Expect to see true LIVE portable Sirius S50 by mid-2006! Here's the exact quote for you nitpickers:

"This product [Sirius S50] will get incrementally better as we go into next year. Our chip development plans so far have been been optimized to reduce costs, as well as the form factor of the product. We'll take the same chip that sits in the S50 and power optimize it in the course of the next six months.

So mid-year next year you should expect to see an S50 product that is also a live radio when you're walking around with it.

And power optimizing the chip, in essence, gives you a smaller battery size, and so it keeps a very nice form factor for consumers." 

Two words: kick ass.