Wachovia Securities senior media analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak had some pretty harsh words to say about the satellite radio industry as whole, especially about XM Satellite Radio.

“It is hard to argue that Sirius and XM valuations are not implying an optimistic long term scenario for the satellite radio industry.”

“We do not believe that, in '06, the market will be able to reach a conclusion whether or not satellite radio will ultimately be a great success or not. Therefore these stocks are likely to trade primarily on news flow and we believe Sirius is likely to have what appears to be a materially stronger year than XM.”

The interesting thing is that his forecasts for XM's new net subscribers isn't that far off from XM's own guideance - 3.05 million versus 3.067 million respectively. So what gives? Well, in a word, ch-ch-churn.

Part of Wlodarczak's reasoning involve an increased likelihood that more XM subs might drop the service than are expected to do so. As the Wachovia analyst put it, “potential higher churn from ultra low radio pricing in Q4 and Q1 (when consumers have less 'skin in the game' they are more prone to churn).”

[Billboard Radio Monitor] 

A loyal reader of Orbitcast - let's call him Proper Modulation - sent in this bit, and I gotta admit it's a great idea. He recently learned that the FM transmitter on his satellite radio receiver is a bit stronger than that crappy iTrip he had... quite a bit stronger. In fact, he'd get over a block radius of broadcast reception out of the thing.

Suddenly the gears started grinding and he came up with an idea. If other people knew the frequency of his receiver, they could tune in to his satrad unit while on the highway. Sure, they'd lose signal eventually - but it at least gives them a taste of what they're missing.

So he made a simple sticker that shows the frequency on it, and stuck it near his satellite radio antenna. Some geeks will get the fact that it's satellite radio, while others will tune in just out of curiousity. Awesome! Talk about viral marketing. Below is a pic...

Even cooler, he decided to open up a CafePress store in hopes that others will help establish these ad-hoc radio networks on the highways. You can call yourselves roving repeater towers. :) I don't really think he's out to make a quick buck out of it - but then again, who cares if he does. It's a great idea and I'd love to see if people could get involved.

Both XM Satellite Radio and SIRIUS Satellite Radio are featuring special programming for the 48th Annual GRAMMY Awards on February 8th, 2006. SIRIUS will be broadcasting special music and commentary programs that will highlight all the excitement and drama of the music industry's biggest night. Their Top 40 hits channel SIRIUS Hits 1 and The Pulse, which features the best music of the '90s and now, will be the home base for their GRAMMY programs on SIRIUS with preview features, live updates on the GRAMMYs and much more.

XM Satellite Radio, the "official" satellite radio partner of the GRAMMY Awards, will be dedicating XM Live 200 to the GRAMMYs completely and will be entitling it GRAMMY Radio. GRAMMY Radio, with exclusive pre-show coverage of GRAMMY Week events, begining on February 6th, and bringing you inside never-before heard events with some of the biggest names in music. On February 7th, you'll get live coverage of the exclusive Clive Davis party as well as a ton of other exclusive programming throughout the week.

It's always facinating to see how flawed some of these "surveys" are, and while not only flawed, how transparently biased they actually are. Take this press release from the American Media Services as an example. How can you actually take this seriously when the copy is written with such a sensationalistic tone?

The 'Howard Stern Factor' is Overrated: Few Americans Expect to Purchase Satellite Radio, a Survey by American Media Services Finds

Despite recent media attention about shock jock Howard Stern's widely publicized transfer to satellite radio, a nationwide survey indicates a large majority of Americans (86 percent) are not likely to consider the purchase of satellite radio in the future because of his move.

[...] 

Ugh. You don't even need to read about them to know who's pocket they have their hand in, the press release copy says enough.

See, there's this thing about "statistics" and "surveys" that's always interesting. You can pretty much modify the numbers to fit your needs by simply changing the sampling. Just take a "random" sampling from a telephone survey, of say, oh I dunno - mid-west senior citizens - and *ta-da!* you've got yourself a representation of the entire nation!

Blech.

[Press Release]
Thanks Tim!

A few days ago, Wired featured an editorial about Howard Stern and Podcasting (linkage: Real Stern Shocker: No Podcast). The thought was that Podcasting is the new radio revolution and Stern is pretty much an idiot for going to Satellite Radio instead. Big money contract notwithstanding, the author saw no reason why Stern wouldn't gravitate to the Podcast medium instead.

Well, a few Wired readers responded and it pretty much sums up exactly how I felt about it. There's definitely an enhanced experience from listening to something LIVE as opposed to the delayed experience that Podcasting provides. Podcasting is a wonderfully empowering medium - one that gives the people the ability to broadcast with a massive reach - much like blogging. It's citizen media. But questioning why Stern went to satrad as opposed to Podcasting? The point is moot in my opinion.

[Wired News: Rants and Raves]

USA Today has a write up on HD Radio today and of course pits HD against Satellite Radio in terms of sound quality, price and selection. Initially I was expecting another one of those ho-hum articles (*cough*) simply regurgitating iBiquity's media kit, but Edward C. Baig actually wrote a very nice and honest comparison. Wow.

His points are all very truthful and valid: HD Radio is still way too young to endorse or decline, HD units are pricey right now but you don't need to pay a monthly fee, Satellite Radio offers far more selection, and satrad is available nationwide.

And while I'm pretty much anti-anything when it comes to commercial radio, I really can't argue against this article. HD really is too young to compare it right now, and satellite radio really does offer more selection nationwide. The only thing I would point out is the headstart that satrad has against HD. Only now did the Radio industry start to get organized with this technology - Satellite Radio is already looking far into the future to bring much more than just "radio" to the table. Let's take a look in a few years and see where both industries are, and then let's do a true comparison, shall we?

[USA Today]

A loyal reader sent me this article on The Desert Sun where Rush Limbaugh talks about his views of Satellite Radio and the growing speculation that he may be making the jump.

Q. What are your thoughts about satellite radio?

A. I think satellite radio is a new technology and it's going to build slowly. It's tough for me. I'm asked all the time if I'm going to satellite radio, and I've got 604 radio stations. I would cannibalize (myself) if I went to satellite radio. My audience is 22-24 million, and their subscription is like 3 million people. That's pretty small. The question is, they have a pretty big debt load and you've got two satellite companies. At some point, it's possible there will be a new technology that is going to come along and surpass them before they can retire their debt load, like podcasting. I wish them the best, because it's more opportunities for people, but it's going to be a slow build. It's like satellite TV. They have a lot of subscribers and it's taken a lot of years to get there, but they still don't reach the nation.

Q. Have either of the satellite radio companies approached you?

A. They've approached everyone. There's no business reason to do it. It makes no business sense. My radio station, I've been with them for 18-to-20 years and I value them too much to make the program available somewhere else. It would just undercut them.

Now, there's a couple translations I get from this. Both responses are business related.

1. Regarding podcasting, of course Rush will feel it is a dominating force in the market, because he began podcasting (for a fee you can subscribe) back in June, 2005. So of course he's going to endorse it.

2, On the second point, it simply means that neither XM or SIRIUS have given him the right offer. Think about it from Rush's standpoint, "they paid Howard Stern $500,000,000 - why would I sell up for anything less myself?" An understandable debacle, especially considering that Rush has the largest radio talk show audience, as of 2005, according to Arbitron (14-20 million listeners weekly). This is the same with Oprah. The Howard Stern deal set a precident that other huge names will undoubtedly cite in their negociations.

Thanks Jimmy!

Back in December I spotted this tidbit on Mercury News, about an in-helmet satrad sound system that Kawasaki is working on. After some back and forth with Kawasaki's Jeff Herzog (who was amazingly open to communications - hat tip to the boys over there for 'getting it'), here's some info on the upcoming sound system device:

Kawasaki's "Sound System" fits inside a rider's helmet and offers AM, FM and satellite radio - yes, both XM and SIRIUS versions will be available. The Sound System essentially consists of headphones and a microphone that fit into your choice of helmet., and a small display console that will attach to the left-handlebar. Currently it's in the development stage, so I don't have any real photos to drool over - so for now you can enjoy this seemingly unrelated photo of a motorcycle helmet on the right.

The sound system includes an intercom for communication with a passenger, will be available in mid-2006 and is targeted towards the long-distance rider. More info coming soon...

A loyal reader sent in this link to me a couple days ago. It's a long-ish read, written by Bridge Rating's guest columnist Bob Lefsetz, but it's one that outlines perfectly the problem with music today. Reading it you understand the eagerness of the writer to actually hear music with substance - something that is near non-existant in terrestrial radio today. Sure, it's specifically about Rock & Roll - a genre that thrived for several decades only to disappear seemingly overnight - but I think you can fill in a majority of genres and come to the same conclusion.

Very well done.

That's what Canadian research firm Decima Research says. According to one of their latest studies conducted last month, 6% of Canadians - equalling up to 2 million Canadians - said they would likely subscribe to satellite radio within the next year at the current price point. Another 14% said they might or might not subscribe within the next year.

77% said they are aware of satellite radio, led by men (87%), those 25-34 (86%), and households with $100K annual income or more (87%).

Sirius Canada appears to holds the market share lead over XM Canada with those likely to buy a satellite radio within the next year. 27% of respondants are leaning towards Sirius Canada versus 12% for XM Canada.

[Cable Caster]