January 28, 2008

Jonathan Jacoby leaves Bank of America

Monday, January 28, 2008 at 11:29 AM

Jonathan JacobyI was going to keep this one quiet initially, but the cat is out of the bag now, so I'll go ahead and post it: Bank of America analyst Jonathan Jacoby, as of today, is leaving the company after four and a half years.

Citing "the nature of the Street," Jacoby sent out an announcement to clients this morning. As a result, we will probably not see any more of his coverage on satellite radio (in the near future at least).

It's no secret that Jonathan has been a long-time critic of Sirius Satellite Radio Inc., having had sent 'open letters' to management criticizing the company of its lack of transparency (among other things). He's also been a longtime critic of the merger between Sirius and XM. As a result many Sirius investors despise his opinions - though it has to be said that he has been correct on many occasions, even if his view is not the popular one. Even in the analyst's circles, it's also been whispered about that Sirius has a strong dislike for Jacoby, and has shown this by not inviting him (or his colleagues) to analyst events, and if you've notice that Jacoby hasn't participated in the earnings calls... well, you can figure out why.

Still, at least for me, his opposing views will be missed.

Check out a portion of Jacoby's farewell letter after the jump...

Continue reading »

January 27, 2008

Still Waiting: Comparing the Sirius-XM merger to others

Sunday, January 27, 2008 at 2:15 PM

Sirius, XM merger length

When Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. and XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. announced their plans to merge, no one expected the process to be easy. But what I don't think anyone expected, was for the process to take so long.

Oh sure we knew there was trouble when the preliminary review process dragged on to the point that it earned the dubious distinction of the longest application-to-clock delay in FCC history. But that simply meant that the Commission was dragging its feet in starting its unofficial shot-clock - a timeline that made no difference anyway, since the FCC blew past the deadline regardless.

But the Department of Justice had already begun its process long before. XM and Sirius even certified their compliance with the DOJ's Second Request back in early September, causing industry experts to predict a decision as early as October (the Second Request compliance usually triggers a 30-day clock).

So here we are, 342 days later, and still no decision in sight.

Take a look at the graph above, mergers with far bigger valuations and/or far more monopolistic concerns, were decided upon earlier than the XM-Sirius merger. That graph illustrates the length of time from when a merger was announced, to when a government body actually made a decision.

And remember, Sirius-XM haven't had a decision yet, so that red bar will continue to grow.

It's sad, because in the case of Whirlpool-Maytag, the washer/dryer market was consolidated to a 70% share and it was ultimately approved by the FTC. In the case of Whole Foods-Wild Oats, the FTC charged that prices could go higher, while quality and service could get reduced - but that deal ultimately went through - in almost half the amount of time that Sirius-XM have been in limbo.

Need more examples? The FCC approved the AT&T-Bellsouth merger (valued at a whopping $85 billion - Sirius/XM is estimated to be 10% of that), which controls 22 states, and includes local phone service to 70 million residents - in some states, it made AT&T the only choice for business access services. Google's purchase of DoubleClick combined the two largest online advertising distributors - which was criticized for hurting competition by two companies that are no stranger to antitrust concerns: Microsoft and AT&T - and it was ultimately approved as well.

Even EchoStar-DirecTV, arguably the most similar to the Sirius-XM merger - and was ultimately denied by the FCC - took less time to come to a decision than the satellite radio merger.

Echoing the sentiment of others: it's time for the government to come to a decision. Whether it be to approve or deny the merger, the DOJ and the FCC need to stop stalling, and start acting. Not only investors, but also consumers and especially employees, of both Sirius and XM are suffering at the expense of the government's indecision. And this constant state of speculation needs to end.

Make the decision, and let's move on.

January 26, 2008

Jim Cramer talks merger, criticizes Feds

Saturday, January 26, 2008 at 10:12 PM

Jim Cramer

I'll admit it, I have a love/hate opinion of Jim Cramer. And this is one of the rare instances when I love what he says.

Cramer yesterday took the opportunity to criticize the government for their protracted delays in coming to a decision on the Sirius-XM merger. In his opinion, the reason why the process is being held up is because lawmakers are all in the back pocket of terrestrial radio.

All I could think about while watching was, "Finally, someone is actually saying this."

If you haven't seen it, I highly recommend checking it out.

[CNBC Video via Orbitcast Forums]

January 25, 2008

National Council of Negro Women oppose merger (and Howard, O&A and Bubba are the reason)

Friday, January 25, 2008 at 9:39 AM

Howard Stern, Opie and Anthony, Bubba the Love Sponge

The National Council of Negro Women (NCNW) submitted a letter to the FCC yesterday, voicing their general opposition to the Sirius-XM merger.

And one of the main reasons as to why they don't approve of the transaction is... Howard Stern, Opie & Anthony and Bubba the Love Sponge.

"One only has to evaluate the current programming now offered by Sirius and XM to recognize that our concerns and fears are well founded," the NCNW wrote in their letter to the FCC Chairman. "Programming such as Howard Stern, Opie and Anthony, and Bubba the Love Sponge - which help to perpetuate racist and sexist stereotypes in our culture - drive the business of both companies." (emphasis added)

The African-American women's organization goes on to say: "A Sirius - XM satellite radio monopoly will focus it (sic) resources on only its most profitable audiences, with more of the same lowest-common-denominator programming of the Howard Stern variety."

That's quite the assumption for a post-merger scenario.

And if that's the case, why wait? Both companies already seek profitability right now. Why would XM hire Oprah Winfrey, Dr. Maya Angelou, and the Reverend Al Sharpton - after hiring Opie & Anthony mind you - if selling out to the "lowest-common-denominator" was such a priority?

Howard Stern, Opie & Anthony and Bubba the Love Sponge constitute only 3 channels out of over 300 combined - that's 1% of all programming offered by Sirius and XM together - let's not forget that.

The National Council of Negro Women goes on to voice their support for Georgetown Partners. Georgetown, which also has the support of the Rev. Jesse Jackson, is asking that Sirius and XM be required to hand over 20% of their channel capacity so as to "create competition and diversity" in satellite radio.

Disgusting.

[Read the full letter (PDF)]

January 24, 2008

iBiquity met with the FCC... again

Thursday, January 24, 2008 at 5:49 AM

Polk I-Sonic ES2
Adding to the list of merger-related activity at the FCC recently, iBiquity Digital Corporation held yet another meeting with members of the Commission earlier this week, according to a recent FCC filing.

iBiquity CEO Robert Struble and counsel met with Commission Jonathan Adelstein and Rudy Brioché of Commissioner Adelstein’s office. Their discussion was similar to previous meetings in that iBiquity expressed "concern" over competitive implications should the merger be approved.

Speaking of implications. iBiquity implies quite a bit at these meetings. From the filing:

"iBiquity raised concerns about exclusive arrangements between XM and Sirius and automobile manufacturers that could serve as a barrier to iBiquity’s ability to sell HD Radio receivers to end users. iBiquity also expressed concern that satellite radio companies may have used subsidies and incentives to discourage proliferation of HD Radio products. iBiquity discussed its concern that the merger has the potential to exacerbate these problems."

Interesting, so now that sluggish growth we're hearing about is XM and Sirius' fault? Seriously? Remember, some studies predicted that 1.5 million HD Radio units would be sold in 2007 (and that was reduced from 2.1 million), while other research firms, like Barrington Research, had hoped for a more conservative 1 million units.

"Our impression is that the actual unit sell-through was only about half that total," said Barrington Research analyst Jim Goss. That's roughly 500,000 units for the entire year if your math is rusty.

So the burden of that failure is now being placed on satellite radio's mystical "incentives" that somehow "discouraged" the sale of HD Radios. That is, despite HD Radio being all over CES this year, and being included in new tabletop radios that forgo XM in favor of iTunes Tagging support. Yeah, I can definitely see proof of iBiquity's accusations there.

iBiquity's solution to these "concerns" of course hasn't changed since last month - they just want the government to require that HD Radio technology be included in every satellite radio sold.

Oh, and Goss also added that iBiquity is getting $5-$6 for every HD Radio receiver sold. So, you know, requiring that HD Radio technology be included in every Sirius and XM unit sold has absolutely nothing to do with the interests of iBiquity. Nah... it's all "to insure a level competitive playing field," right?

[FCC Filing (PDF), Radio Ink]

UPDATE: Looks like iBiquity met with Commissioner Michael Copps and Rich Chessen of Commissioner Copps’ office as well. [FCC Filing (PDF)]

January 22, 2008

It's official: Retail sales are in the toilet (December numbers are in)

Tuesday, January 22, 2008 at 3:34 PM

Satellite Radio RetailThe ever-important Holiday Shopping Season didn't prove to do much for XM or Sirius last year, as NPD Group's December sales data shows a continued decline.

Combined data shows that satellite radio retail sales were down 37.5% for the month, when compared to December of last year. The sad part is that the comparisons were relatively easy.

The Quick Glance:

  • Sirius December 2007 Year-over-Year Retail Sales:
    Down 36%
  • XM December 2007 Year-over-Year Retail Sales:
    Down 41%

Marketshare:

  • Sirius Dec '07 Retail Marketshare: 68.3%
  • XM Dec '07 Retail Marketshare: 31.7%

That's a steep decline, especially when you consider that last year satellite radio retail sales were already down 46%. Looking at retail marketshare at this point is nearly pointless as it's simply a piece of an ever-shrinking pie.

Something needs to change in how we approach retail, because this obviously isn't working. And it needs to change now.

[SiriusBuzz]

Merger related activity heating up at the FCC

Tuesday, January 22, 2008 at 9:23 AM

XM Sirius Merger

Only three weeks into the new year, and members of the FCC have met various parties involving the merger of Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. and XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. on eight separate occurrences.

Could this (finally) be a sign that we'll have a decision on the merger soon? Here's a listing of some of the reported activity coming from the Commission:

  • January 3, 2008: The CEO of US Electronics (along with counsel) met with Comissioner Copps and his advisor, Rick Chessen. [Link (PDF)]
  • January 4, 2008: Georgetown Partners, TSG Capital Group, and King & Spalding LLP met with Michelle Carey, senior legal advisor to Chairman Martin. [Link (PDF)]
  • January 7, 2008: Chester C. Davenport, Managing Director of Georgetown Partners met with Commissioner Jonathan Adelstein [Link (PDF)]
  • January 7, 2008: Georgetown Partners on the same day also met with Commissioner Michael Copps. [Link (PDF)]
  • January 9, 2008: Georgetown Partners and the Reverend Jesse Jackson met with Chairman Kevin Martin [Link (PDF)]
  • January 11, 2008: XM and Sirius, along with CRA International, met with representatives from the FCC to discuss the findings of the CRA study which determined that Satellite Radio and Terrestrial Radio are demand substitutes. [Link (PDF)]
  • January 14, 2008: Once again Chester Davenport of Georgetown Partners, Rev. Jesse Jackson and Kimberly Marcus (also of the Rainbow PUSH coalition) met with Chairman Kevin Martin, Daniel Gonzalez and Catherine Bohigian. On the same day in a separate meeting: Davenport, Rev. Jackson and Ms. Marcus met with Commissioner Michael Copps, Commissioner Jonathan Adelstein, Rick Chessen and Rudy Brioché. And in yet another meeting Davenport, Jackson, and Marcus met with Commissioner Robert McDowell. [Link (PDF)]
  • January 15, 2008: iBiquity CEO Robert Struble met with Commissioner Robert McDowell as well as Angela Giancarlo and Cristina Chou Pauze of Commissioner McDowell's office. [Link (PDF)]

Last month, RBC Capital analyst David Bank predicted that the FCC's decision would likely stretch to February of this year.

"We believe XMSR/SIRI management served up the necessary sacrificial lamb(s) by offering ala carte pricing and openness to variety of other conduct/behavioral conditions," wrote Bank. "However, our sources indicate FCC is likely 1-2 months away from fully fleshing out conditionality such as ala carte pricing, interoperability of radios, unused channel availability to 3rd parties, indecency standards and local content restrictions."

From the looks of these recent meetings, it appears that the FCC is working through those conditionalities right now.

January 19, 2008

Profile: TurnKey Media Solutions

Saturday, January 19, 2008 at 12:15 PM

TurnKey Media Solutions
It seems as though the space for satellite radio -based solutions for commercial services (e.g., on-hold music, background music, etc) is continuing to grow at a decent pace. Companies like AMTC and Dynamic Media are acting as further competition to services like DMX and Muzak, which have had a stronghold on the business for a long time.

Enter TurnKey Media Solutions - a newly renamed business media services company. Previously known as Satellite Radio Commercial Services, the company has been in business since 2005, offering national sales, installation and support to businesses in the US. Its roots stem from even further back though, as its founder Matthew Moffett actually started off in the satellite radio business back in 2001, selling both retail and commercial satellite radio (before there was even a commercial program from XM Radio). Later, Moffett and his wife started Satellite Radio Superstore in 2003 (Note: Satellite Radio Superstore is an Orbitcast sponsor).

Earlier this year Satellite Radio Commercial Services decided to change its name to TurnKey Media Solutions and started offering additional services including XM, Sirius, Dish Network, DirecTV, on-hold/overhead messaging, installation and support.

TurnKey currently manages XM commercial partner accounts like GM, Honda, Acura and Burger King - offering sales, service and installation of audio systems and XM commercial equipment. Pretty impressive.

And as resellers for both XM and Sirius, they now offer direct billing for commercial establishments of any size or industry. This allows them to be a full service operation for digital media solutions (that's a fancy term for audio, video, and messaging). All of their services include the necessary fees for paying royalties to ASCAP, BMI and SESAC.

So what's the big news?

Matt explained to me, "With the launch of our new web site we will be the first online retailer to offer the online sale of commercial satellite radio equipment with real time activation and account setup." This essentially means businesses will be able to order equipment and service without having to pick up the phone. It also allows them to access their account in real time and make adjustments accordingly. This has been in testing and is ready to go live very soon.

TurnKey has also spent the last couple of years building their network of installers throughout the country including Satellite TV installers, data techs, and custom audio/video installers. These installers are contracted directly and not through 3rd party companies (though they do use a 3rd party to fill in the blanks in areas they don't cover). TurnKey also manages their installer network online, so national rollouts for franchises and chain store accounts can be managed internally, while still providing the flexibility to manage localized installs for smaller accounts.

Another interesting differentiator is that TurnKey has created industry specific solutions for industries such as coffee shops, fitness facilities, hospitals, casinos, hotels and others. Here's an example of a marketing site for those specific industries (for a coffee shop).

The thin-slicing of the music packages to appeal to specific industries is a brilliant, and ridiculously simple, approach to the business.

Combine that with the upcoming online management capabilities (apparently they can manage on-hold messaging content online as well - so you can adjust everything remotely via the internet), and the in-house installers, and you've got a winner.

TurnKey Media Website

[TurnKey Media Solutions]

January 18, 2008

Interesting merger comments from Puerto Rico reps

Friday, January 18, 2008 at 5:05 PM

Sirius, XMCongressman Luis G. Fortuno, the sole representative of Puerto Rico in Congress, submitted an interesting comment to the FCC today regarding the merger between Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. and XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc.

He urged the Commission to not approve the Sirius-XM merger, unless the companies include Puerto Rico and other noncontiguous areas of the U.S. as part of their service.

"It is time to change the 1997 policies," asserted Fortuno in reference to the SDARS license and it's 48 state requirement.

Fortuno is also the Chair of the Congressional Hispanic Conference and the Ranking Member of the newly-created House Subcommittee on Insular Affairs.

"My official position is to oppose the merger until such time that the exclusion of Puerto Rico and other noncontiguous United States jurisdictions from coverage area of satellite radio service ceases," wrote Fortuno. "My interest and concern include providing equal access to this technology to all U.S. citizens and encouraging industries doing businesss in the mainland to extend their services to the Puero Rican market."

His sentiment echoes a similar filing (PDF) submitted earlier this year by the Senate of Puerto Rico. The Senate contends that "[s]ince the FCC represents the public interest of all United States citizens... its deliberations should also watch for the interests of the millions of consumers residing in the outlying States and Territories under the United States flag."

As such, they oppose the merger until Sirius and XM provide coverage to Puerto Rico.

Somehow, I can't see allowing Puerto Rico's nearly 4 million residents to sign up to Sirius-XM as being much of a problem.

[FCC Filing (PDF)]

iBiquity "borrows" XM's slogan

Friday, January 18, 2008 at 12:59 PM

HD Radio iTunes Tagging slogan

I was going through the pile of dead trees from CES and came across this “iTunes Tagging” brochure from iBiquity.

When XM introduced the Inno, the slogan was: Hear it. Click it. Save it.
The HD Radio slogan? Hear it. Tag it. Download it. Never forget it.

Ah, imitation is truly the sincerest form of flattery.

Side note, the elephant-minded folks at Radio-Info.com pointed out that there was a clear omission from the recent MacWorld: those rumored HD Radio products. Aw shucks, guess Steve Jobs isn't all the excited to do that "big push" for HD Radio afterall.

January 2008 (17)