Sirius and XM have to extend their merger agreement, again. This time, though, they're not messing around with any deadlines (since the FCC sure isn't) and so they've decided to extend the merger agreement indefinitely.

The two companies have agreed not to exercise their rights to terminate the Merger Agreement prior to May 15, 2008. In addition, they've agreed to continue to extend the merger agreement, as necessary, for rolling 2-week periods.

The rolling renewal will continue until either side notifies the other of its intention not to extend.

[Press Release]

Stilllll going! Just when you thought we had reached a lull in the meetings at the Federal Communications Commission, along comes American Public Media to keep the fire burning.

Rick Chessen, Senior Legal Advisor to Commissioner Copps, and representatives for American Public Media met on Monday to discuss a letter (PDF) it sent to the FCC last week. Yes, that's right, a letter sent late last week deserves a meeting.

The non-profit organization reiterated its letter (you think?) urging the FCC to require that Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. and XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. hand over 20% of its combined spectrum for "for non-commercial educational use."

[View Filing (PDF)]

While speculation abounds about whether the upcoming Sirius Starmate 5 will have the capability to receive both Sirius and XM, there's one piece of the puzzle that was missed... the ability to receive A La Carte channels.

As a refresher: Sirius-XM have said that after merging, they would offer the first-ever a la carte packages in subscription media. These packages would allow subscribers to choose 50 channels for $6.99/month, or 100 channels from either Sirius or XM for $14.99/month. Additional channels would cost $0.25/each.

But a commenter on SiriusBuzz points to the Starmate 5's user manual, which gives a strong indication that this radio could indeed be the first A La Carte capable unit.

The section in question, Page 74 of the user manual (PDF), refers to the "My Channels" category, which "will show all of the channels contained in your SIRIUS subscription plan." The Starmate 5 user manual then goes on to describe that the "category heading bar will show the total number of channels your Starmate ST5 is subscribed to."

The manual also differentiates these subscribed channels from channels that are locked by the built-in Parental Control feature (which has been available on previous generations).

Below are select bullet points from the manual highlighting this:

• "If you try to tune to an unsubscribed channel the ST5 will display a 'Channel Unsubscribed' message."
• "The ST5 will not display channel information for any unsubscribed or locked channels."
• "The Memory and Song Seek functions... will only occur on subscribed channels."

Now, before we get all in a tizzy, it is also important to point out that the "My Channels" references in the Starmate 5's manual could be referencing the "select" packages and not true "a la carte" packages. As you can see in Sirius' post-merger channel lineup, there are  other programming packages that would limit the number of channels displayed on the unit, including a "Family Friendly" package, a "Mostly Music" package and a "News, Sports & Talk" package.

Even if that's the case, I still think this is an important development.

[via Orbitcast Forums]

"When the only tool you have is a hammer, then every problem begins to look like a nail."

- Abraham Maslow

In the world of statistics and research, methodology is paramount. That's pretty basic. If you're going to draw a conclusion from the polling of a sample, the methods you use to extract those answers had damn well better be solid. Because in the end, the way this data is gathered defines the final outcome.

And this is exactly why I say that the Arbitron ratings for satellite radio listening are wrong. Indeed, they're bullshit.

Maybe that was a bit harsh, I'm sorry. Let's instead say that these ratings are for "information purposes only," because that's how Arbitron refers to them.

Mind you, the criticism that's about to ensue has absolutely nothing to do with terrestrial radio and how its listenership is measured. That's a whole different issue. This is meant to point out the flaws in how Arbitron measures satellite radio listenership and nothing more. So when I say that "Arbitron's ratings are wrong" I mean for Sirius and XM, and not regular radio.

So let's begin.



Reason #1
The Arbitron Diary.

Actually, it's the methodology for terrestrial radio ratings that's screwing it all up. Arbitron's diary is built from the ground up to measure AM/FM. Not Internet Radio. Not Satellite Radio. Not even HD Radio (that is, if anyone was listening to HD Radio). It's meant for good ol' regular radio and nothing else.

Here's a big problem: There is no checkbox for a listener to select "Satellite Radio." None. Nothing for Sirius. Nothing for XM. Nothing. Diarykeepers need to actually physically write in the service and the channel info, in addition to the time they started and stopped listening to the program as well as the location of where they did this. Do you think people will actually write in all that information? Right there, the data becomes tainted.

Follow the jump to keep reading...

Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. and XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. have both announced that they have postponed their 2008 annual meeting of stockholders.

The meetings were originally scheduled for May 20th and May 23rd for Sirius and XM respectively. A new date will be set when they have more information relating to the timing of the merger.

Yesterday, Arbitron released its Fall 2007 ratings for Sirius Satellite Radio and XM Satellite Radio. Below are some key takeaways from the ratings report, but check back later when I explain why Arbitron's ratings are all wrong (well, for satellite radio at least).

Overall, Arbitron reports that XM leads Sirius in listeners, 10.4 million versus 7 million respectively. Combined, there were approximately a half-million more satellite radio listeners in the Fall than in Spring 2007 when Arbitron last released its satellite radio ratings report.

Here's a breakdown of the Top 5 channels (in terms of "cume" - or the total number of unique listeners) from both Sirius and XM:

Sirius Ratings -

1. Howard 100: 1,210,000
   
2. Sirius Hits 1: 584,800
3. Howard 101: 501,000
4. Sirius New Country: 468,300
5. Sirius Big 80s: 417,900
6. Sirius Octane: 383,700
7. Classic Vinyl: 347,100
8. Classic Rewind: 335,500
9. The Pulse: 330,700
10. Totally 70s: 309,400

XM Ratings -

1. Top 20 on 20: 1049200
2. Flight 26: 741600
3. 80s on 8: 698300
4. 70s on 7: 667400
5. 60s on 6: 581300
6. Highway 16: 579500
7. Top Tracks: 534900
8. The Blend: 532400
9. The Heart: 493400
10. Fox News: 464800

For those that want to compare how the "shock jocks" line up, Opie & Anthony's The Virus channel had a cume of 171,300. For a comparison of AQH (Average Quarter-Hour), which is the average number of people listening for at least five minutes during a 15-minute period, here's how the three channels compared:

• Howard 100: 97,600 AQH
• Howard 101: 33,200 AQH
• The Virus: 18,500 AQH

So there's the numbers, and numbers don't lie... or do they?

Check back soon when I explain, in detail, why Arbitron's numbers - for satellite radio ratings at least - are all wrong.

[Arbitron Fall 2007 Satellite Radio Ratings (PDF)]

Mums the word for FCC chairman Kevin Martin about the merger between Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. and XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. at a recent meeting with reporters at the agency's DC headquarters.

Martin said he had no comment on the timing for a decision. When asked whether the FCC had waited for the Justice Department's decision to issue its own ruling Martin told Radio Ink,  "I wouldn't say that the DOJ was slowing us down."

He also rejected the suggestion that the FCC is holding out for a unanimous 5-0 commission vote on the deal, but said, "I always think it's preferable that we have a unanimous decision."

In related news, representatives from Sirius and XM met with Chairman Martin and Daniel Gonzalez on Wednesday (PDF). The subject of the meeting focused on - once again - the review of "pending issues raised in recent filings."

The Department of Justice approved the Sirius-XM merger over a month ago.

Attorneys General from Maryland, Connecticut, Ohio and Washington - who all greatly oppose the Sirius-XM merger - feel they have found the answer to preserving competition in satellite radio: offer it for free.

This revelation was uncovered in a recent letter (PDF) to FCC Chairman Kevin Martin, where the state Attorneys General suggest that the Federal Communications Commission lease a portion of Sirius and XM's bandwidth to a 3rd party. And that leased portion, should be made available, for free.

Does this plan sound familiar?

Radio & Records nicely sums it up for us, "the only entity that has made a pitch to lease satellite spectrum from a combined Sirius-XM is Georgetown Partners."

R&R adds that should the deal win approval, Georgetown Partners "would be willing to take a long lease on the spectrum and form a free, commercial-based satellite radio company," which it promises "will be richly diverse."

It's so nice to see these AGs coming to the rescue.

[View letter (PDF) via Radio & Records]
Thanks Nathan!

General Motors said yesterday that the US market slowdown had led to a sales decline that has given Toyota an early lead for this year's global auto sales.

For the first-quarter, Toyota capitalized on growth in China and Europe as GM saw its North American sales drag down gains in other markets. Toyota said sales grew 2.7 percent, selling 2.41 million vehicles for the period, compared with GM's 2.25 million, a decline of less than 1 percent. As a result, GM is about 160,000 vehicles behind its Japanese rival.

On Wednesday, GM became the latest automaker to predict that the industry was entering its worst months of the year. GM said that the second quarter, which typically has strong auto sales, could end up being the slowest period of the year.

Ford officials echoed the sentiment this month, stating that they believed Spring would be the slowest season for automakers in 2008.

Chrysler too said it was not counting on a significant improvement in the market this year.

"The big caveat is gas prices," said Michael C. DiGiovanni, GM's chief sales analyst. "This is clearly a head wind we didn't anticipate would be to this level."

The average price of regular gas has reached a record high of $3.533 a gallon, according to the AAA motor club. And that doesn't bode well for the belt-tightening consumer, who will continue to be less likely to purchase a new vehicle, and as a result become a satellite radio subscriber.

[New York Times, AP]
Pictured: The 2009 Cadiallac Escalade Hybrid, © General Motors.

New Citi analyst Tony Wible issued a client note this morning, assuming coverage of the satellite radio industry with a "Buy" on Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. and a "Hold" on XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc.

"Satellite radio should continue to change the audio entertainment industry and gain share as its proves to be fresh (no need to create play lists or buy MP3s), original, cost effective, and a simple way to access premium/long tail content that can not be supported via radio or MP3 models," wrote the Citi analyst in the note. "Given the highly fixed cost base of the companies, we view the sub growth as the key driver of the stocks and we see the industry having up to 55 mil subs by 2011."

Wible also rated SIRI as a "Buy" with an $8 target based on a 70% probability that the deal closes. He rates XMSR with a "Hold" with a $12.25 target price.

The Citi analyst believes that the SIRI stock - as a merged entity - would be worth $10.