January 30, 2008

Georgetown Partners calls A La Carte a "fairytale"

Wednesday, January 30, 2008 at 8:50 AM

Georgetown PartnersGeorgetown Partners, the minority-owned company that wants 20% of satellite radio infrastructure handed over to them, has filed comments with the FCC calling the Sirius-XM proposed A La Carte pricing a "fairytale."

"The Sirius-XM 'A La Carte' offerings are a 'fairytale'." writes Georgetown Partners in the ex parte filing. "There are no public interest benefits in the near or even in the intermediate future."

Georgetown's claims go on to state that all satellite radio receivers would have to be replaced in order for the A La Carte packages to be made available to subscribers.

"Even assuming that sometime in the distant future these radios were actually to be produced and could be purchased, the more than 30 million present owners of installed automobile satellite radio receivers and the tens of million of future car owners of such radios would have to rip these radios out of their dash boards, junk them, and pay whatever monopoly price the post-merger company would charge for the 'next generation' radios," writes Georgetown.

(As opposed to waving a magic wand and making those receivers capable of new features?)

"Unlike the Sirius-XM 'A La Carte' offerings, [Georgetown's] proposal provides true benefits for the public including to every owner of a satellite receiver today and in the future and a competitive presence in the market that otherwise would be ruled by a monopoly," the company writes.

"Georgetown’s proposal requires the combined Sirius-XM to carry Georgetown’s advertiser-supported programming to everyone with a satellite radio receiver – subscriber or not. The result would be immediate, continuing and permanent tangible benefit to the public."

So let me get this straight, the public interest solution that Georgetown is proposing is to... introduce commercials into a free service?

Wait ...and why can't the FCC require that Sirius-XM do this themselves?

[FCC Filing (PDF) via Orbitcast Forums]

January 28, 2008

Jonathan Jacoby leaves Bank of America

Monday, January 28, 2008 at 11:29 AM

Jonathan JacobyI was going to keep this one quiet initially, but the cat is out of the bag now, so I'll go ahead and post it: Bank of America analyst Jonathan Jacoby, as of today, is leaving the company after four and a half years.

Citing "the nature of the Street," Jacoby sent out an announcement to clients this morning. As a result, we will probably not see any more of his coverage on satellite radio (in the near future at least).

It's no secret that Jonathan has been a long-time critic of Sirius Satellite Radio Inc., having had sent 'open letters' to management criticizing the company of its lack of transparency (among other things). He's also been a longtime critic of the merger between Sirius and XM. As a result many Sirius investors despise his opinions - though it has to be said that he has been correct on many occasions, even if his view is not the popular one. Even in the analyst's circles, it's also been whispered about that Sirius has a strong dislike for Jacoby, and has shown this by not inviting him (or his colleagues) to analyst events, and if you've notice that Jacoby hasn't participated in the earnings calls... well, you can figure out why.

Still, at least for me, his opposing views will be missed.

Check out a portion of Jacoby's farewell letter after the jump...

Continue reading »

January 27, 2008

Drudge Report: "Drama" building on Sirius-XM merger

Sunday, January 27, 2008 at 7:53 PM

The Drudge Report is, er, reporting that "drama" is building around the Sirius-XM merger.

There's no link or anything specific... just this:

"APPROVED OR DENIED? DRAMA BUILDS AROUND SIRIUS-XM MERGER... DEVELOPING..."

Curious as to exactly what kind of "drama" they're talking about. Stay tuned...

[Drudge Report via Orbitcast Forums]

UPDATE: Drudge has removed the posting from his page now. Yay, rumor mongering.

Still Waiting: Comparing the Sirius-XM merger to others

Sunday, January 27, 2008 at 2:15 PM

Sirius, XM merger length

When Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. and XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. announced their plans to merge, no one expected the process to be easy. But what I don't think anyone expected, was for the process to take so long.

Oh sure we knew there was trouble when the preliminary review process dragged on to the point that it earned the dubious distinction of the longest application-to-clock delay in FCC history. But that simply meant that the Commission was dragging its feet in starting its unofficial shot-clock - a timeline that made no difference anyway, since the FCC blew past the deadline regardless.

But the Department of Justice had already begun its process long before. XM and Sirius even certified their compliance with the DOJ's Second Request back in early September, causing industry experts to predict a decision as early as October (the Second Request compliance usually triggers a 30-day clock).

So here we are, 342 days later, and still no decision in sight.

Take a look at the graph above, mergers with far bigger valuations and/or far more monopolistic concerns, were decided upon earlier than the XM-Sirius merger. That graph illustrates the length of time from when a merger was announced, to when a government body actually made a decision.

And remember, Sirius-XM haven't had a decision yet, so that red bar will continue to grow.

It's sad, because in the case of Whirlpool-Maytag, the washer/dryer market was consolidated to a 70% share and it was ultimately approved by the FTC. In the case of Whole Foods-Wild Oats, the FTC charged that prices could go higher, while quality and service could get reduced - but that deal ultimately went through - in almost half the amount of time that Sirius-XM have been in limbo.

Need more examples? The FCC approved the AT&T-Bellsouth merger (valued at a whopping $85 billion - Sirius/XM is estimated to be 10% of that), which controls 22 states, and includes local phone service to 70 million residents - in some states, it made AT&T the only choice for business access services. Google's purchase of DoubleClick combined the two largest online advertising distributors - which was criticized for hurting competition by two companies that are no stranger to antitrust concerns: Microsoft and AT&T - and it was ultimately approved as well.

Even EchoStar-DirecTV, arguably the most similar to the Sirius-XM merger - and was ultimately denied by the FCC - took less time to come to a decision than the satellite radio merger.

Echoing the sentiment of others: it's time for the government to come to a decision. Whether it be to approve or deny the merger, the DOJ and the FCC need to stop stalling, and start acting. Not only investors, but also consumers and especially employees, of both Sirius and XM are suffering at the expense of the government's indecision. And this constant state of speculation needs to end.

Make the decision, and let's move on.

January 26, 2008

Jim Cramer talks merger, criticizes Feds

Saturday, January 26, 2008 at 10:12 PM

Jim Cramer

I'll admit it, I have a love/hate opinion of Jim Cramer. And this is one of the rare instances when I love what he says.

Cramer yesterday took the opportunity to criticize the government for their protracted delays in coming to a decision on the Sirius-XM merger. In his opinion, the reason why the process is being held up is because lawmakers are all in the back pocket of terrestrial radio.

All I could think about while watching was, "Finally, someone is actually saying this."

If you haven't seen it, I highly recommend checking it out.

[CNBC Video via Orbitcast Forums]

January 25, 2008

National Council of Negro Women oppose merger (and Howard, O&A and Bubba are the reason)

Friday, January 25, 2008 at 9:39 AM

Howard Stern, Opie and Anthony, Bubba the Love Sponge

The National Council of Negro Women (NCNW) submitted a letter to the FCC yesterday, voicing their general opposition to the Sirius-XM merger.

And one of the main reasons as to why they don't approve of the transaction is... Howard Stern, Opie & Anthony and Bubba the Love Sponge.

"One only has to evaluate the current programming now offered by Sirius and XM to recognize that our concerns and fears are well founded," the NCNW wrote in their letter to the FCC Chairman. "Programming such as Howard Stern, Opie and Anthony, and Bubba the Love Sponge - which help to perpetuate racist and sexist stereotypes in our culture - drive the business of both companies." (emphasis added)

The African-American women's organization goes on to say: "A Sirius - XM satellite radio monopoly will focus it (sic) resources on only its most profitable audiences, with more of the same lowest-common-denominator programming of the Howard Stern variety."

That's quite the assumption for a post-merger scenario.

And if that's the case, why wait? Both companies already seek profitability right now. Why would XM hire Oprah Winfrey, Dr. Maya Angelou, and the Reverend Al Sharpton - after hiring Opie & Anthony mind you - if selling out to the "lowest-common-denominator" was such a priority?

Howard Stern, Opie & Anthony and Bubba the Love Sponge constitute only 3 channels out of over 300 combined - that's 1% of all programming offered by Sirius and XM together - let's not forget that.

The National Council of Negro Women goes on to voice their support for Georgetown Partners. Georgetown, which also has the support of the Rev. Jesse Jackson, is asking that Sirius and XM be required to hand over 20% of their channel capacity so as to "create competition and diversity" in satellite radio.

Disgusting.

[Read the full letter (PDF)]

January 24, 2008

iBiquity met with the FCC... again

Thursday, January 24, 2008 at 5:49 AM

Polk I-Sonic ES2
Adding to the list of merger-related activity at the FCC recently, iBiquity Digital Corporation held yet another meeting with members of the Commission earlier this week, according to a recent FCC filing.

iBiquity CEO Robert Struble and counsel met with Commission Jonathan Adelstein and Rudy Brioché of Commissioner Adelstein’s office. Their discussion was similar to previous meetings in that iBiquity expressed "concern" over competitive implications should the merger be approved.

Speaking of implications. iBiquity implies quite a bit at these meetings. From the filing:

"iBiquity raised concerns about exclusive arrangements between XM and Sirius and automobile manufacturers that could serve as a barrier to iBiquity’s ability to sell HD Radio receivers to end users. iBiquity also expressed concern that satellite radio companies may have used subsidies and incentives to discourage proliferation of HD Radio products. iBiquity discussed its concern that the merger has the potential to exacerbate these problems."

Interesting, so now that sluggish growth we're hearing about is XM and Sirius' fault? Seriously? Remember, some studies predicted that 1.5 million HD Radio units would be sold in 2007 (and that was reduced from 2.1 million), while other research firms, like Barrington Research, had hoped for a more conservative 1 million units.

"Our impression is that the actual unit sell-through was only about half that total," said Barrington Research analyst Jim Goss. That's roughly 500,000 units for the entire year if your math is rusty.

So the burden of that failure is now being placed on satellite radio's mystical "incentives" that somehow "discouraged" the sale of HD Radios. That is, despite HD Radio being all over CES this year, and being included in new tabletop radios that forgo XM in favor of iTunes Tagging support. Yeah, I can definitely see proof of iBiquity's accusations there.

iBiquity's solution to these "concerns" of course hasn't changed since last month - they just want the government to require that HD Radio technology be included in every satellite radio sold.

Oh, and Goss also added that iBiquity is getting $5-$6 for every HD Radio receiver sold. So, you know, requiring that HD Radio technology be included in every Sirius and XM unit sold has absolutely nothing to do with the interests of iBiquity. Nah... it's all "to insure a level competitive playing field," right?

[FCC Filing (PDF), Radio Ink]

UPDATE: Looks like iBiquity met with Commissioner Michael Copps and Rich Chessen of Commissioner Copps’ office as well. [FCC Filing (PDF)]

January 23, 2008

Report: Merger could receive approval tonight

Wednesday, January 23, 2008 at 11:53 AM

Sirius, XM mergerBriefing.com is citing an unnamed report this morning stating: “XMSR-SIRI merger could receive approval from DoJ and FCC tonight,” according to CNN.

Now we've been through this up-and-down rollercoaster too many times to count, but this is apparently enough to send both stocks into positive territory in a market while everyone else is trading lower.

Spokespersons for both Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. and XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. declined to comment on the latest speculation - as did spokespersons at the FCC and DOJ.

Paul R. La Monica at CNN Money gives the best advice on this last round of speculative news:

"There is nothing to suggest that a ruling is going to be announced today, this week, or even this month. So my words of advice to anxious Sirius and XM shareholders would be 'Patience, grasshopper. Patience.' Stop buying and selling on unsubstantiated rumors and just sit back and wait for the inevitable, although not necessarily imminent, announcement."

[CNN Money]

UPDATE: TheStreet.com adds some to this little rumor, sourcing Briefing.com once again. They include the ever-conservative (albeit, correct) view from David Trout of M&A Researcher, who is quoted as saying, "we do not anticipate a decision tonight or in the immediate future."

January 22, 2008

Merger related activity heating up at the FCC

Tuesday, January 22, 2008 at 9:23 AM

XM Sirius Merger

Only three weeks into the new year, and members of the FCC have met various parties involving the merger of Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. and XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. on eight separate occurrences.

Could this (finally) be a sign that we'll have a decision on the merger soon? Here's a listing of some of the reported activity coming from the Commission:

  • January 3, 2008: The CEO of US Electronics (along with counsel) met with Comissioner Copps and his advisor, Rick Chessen. [Link (PDF)]
  • January 4, 2008: Georgetown Partners, TSG Capital Group, and King & Spalding LLP met with Michelle Carey, senior legal advisor to Chairman Martin. [Link (PDF)]
  • January 7, 2008: Chester C. Davenport, Managing Director of Georgetown Partners met with Commissioner Jonathan Adelstein [Link (PDF)]
  • January 7, 2008: Georgetown Partners on the same day also met with Commissioner Michael Copps. [Link (PDF)]
  • January 9, 2008: Georgetown Partners and the Reverend Jesse Jackson met with Chairman Kevin Martin [Link (PDF)]
  • January 11, 2008: XM and Sirius, along with CRA International, met with representatives from the FCC to discuss the findings of the CRA study which determined that Satellite Radio and Terrestrial Radio are demand substitutes. [Link (PDF)]
  • January 14, 2008: Once again Chester Davenport of Georgetown Partners, Rev. Jesse Jackson and Kimberly Marcus (also of the Rainbow PUSH coalition) met with Chairman Kevin Martin, Daniel Gonzalez and Catherine Bohigian. On the same day in a separate meeting: Davenport, Rev. Jackson and Ms. Marcus met with Commissioner Michael Copps, Commissioner Jonathan Adelstein, Rick Chessen and Rudy Brioché. And in yet another meeting Davenport, Jackson, and Marcus met with Commissioner Robert McDowell. [Link (PDF)]
  • January 15, 2008: iBiquity CEO Robert Struble met with Commissioner Robert McDowell as well as Angela Giancarlo and Cristina Chou Pauze of Commissioner McDowell's office. [Link (PDF)]

Last month, RBC Capital analyst David Bank predicted that the FCC's decision would likely stretch to February of this year.

"We believe XMSR/SIRI management served up the necessary sacrificial lamb(s) by offering ala carte pricing and openness to variety of other conduct/behavioral conditions," wrote Bank. "However, our sources indicate FCC is likely 1-2 months away from fully fleshing out conditionality such as ala carte pricing, interoperability of radios, unused channel availability to 3rd parties, indecency standards and local content restrictions."

From the looks of these recent meetings, it appears that the FCC is working through those conditionalities right now.

January 18, 2008

Interesting merger comments from Puerto Rico reps

Friday, January 18, 2008 at 5:05 PM

Sirius, XMCongressman Luis G. Fortuno, the sole representative of Puerto Rico in Congress, submitted an interesting comment to the FCC today regarding the merger between Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. and XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc.

He urged the Commission to not approve the Sirius-XM merger, unless the companies include Puerto Rico and other noncontiguous areas of the U.S. as part of their service.

"It is time to change the 1997 policies," asserted Fortuno in reference to the SDARS license and it's 48 state requirement.

Fortuno is also the Chair of the Congressional Hispanic Conference and the Ranking Member of the newly-created House Subcommittee on Insular Affairs.

"My official position is to oppose the merger until such time that the exclusion of Puerto Rico and other noncontiguous United States jurisdictions from coverage area of satellite radio service ceases," wrote Fortuno. "My interest and concern include providing equal access to this technology to all U.S. citizens and encouraging industries doing businesss in the mainland to extend their services to the Puero Rican market."

His sentiment echoes a similar filing (PDF) submitted earlier this year by the Senate of Puerto Rico. The Senate contends that "[s]ince the FCC represents the public interest of all United States citizens... its deliberations should also watch for the interests of the millions of consumers residing in the outlying States and Territories under the United States flag."

As such, they oppose the merger until Sirius and XM provide coverage to Puerto Rico.

Somehow, I can't see allowing Puerto Rico's nearly 4 million residents to sign up to Sirius-XM as being much of a problem.

[FCC Filing (PDF)]

January 2008 (13)