July 31, 2007

Satellite Radio Subscribers: The latest comparing Sirius vs XM

Tuesday, July 31, 2007 at 10:35 AM

Oh sure, there's a merger going on so everyone's one big happy family right? Not exactly. Everyone still wants to see how Sirius' and XM's satellite radio subscribers are stacking up against each other.

So here's some charts and numbers using the latest subscriber information to break it all down for you.

Total Satellite Radio Subscribers:

Sirius Satellite Radio: 7,142,538
XM Satellite Radio: 8,250,000

Total Satellite Radio Subscribers
The above chart shows the total cumulative subscribers starting from the fourth quarter of 2001 and how both Sirius and XM subscribers have grown comparative to each other.

Quarterly Net Subscribers

Sirius Satellite Radio: 561,493
XM Satellite Radio: 338,000

Q2 2007 Net Satellite Radio Subscribers
Here you can see how Sirius and XM have added NET subscribers on a quarterly basis, going back to 2005. For the seventh consecutive quarter, Sirius has beaten out XM in net satellite radio subscriber additions.

Quarterly Gross Subscribers:

Sirius Satellite Radio: 1,002,145
XM Satellite Radio: 942,000

Gross Satellite Radio Subscribers
This chart shows the quarterly GROSS subscriber additions between XM and Sirius. I find that gross subscribers are a very important metric to track, because it eliminates variables (like churn) and shows the true market penetration. For the third consecutive quarter, Sirius has outpaced XM in gross subscriber additions. This even beats out the "Stern Effect" from last year.

 

Sirius Satellite Radio announces 2Q07 results, growth continues

Tuesday, July 31, 2007 at 7:13 AM

SiriusSirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) announced their 2Q06 earnings results, showing a 51% increase in revenue year-over-year to $226.4 million, and strong subscriber growth of 561,493 new subscribers during the quarter.

Sirius ended the quarter with over 7,142,538 subscribers.

During 2Q07, Sirius added 561,493 net subscribers, comprised of 129,843 net additions from retail/aftermarket channels and 431,650 from the OEM channel. Sirius captured 62% of satellite radio segment share, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of leading subscriber growth in satellite radio.

Total revenue increased to a record $226.4 million, up 51% from $150.1 million YoY. Advertising revenue was $9.2 million. ARPU was $10.71. SAC was $108 for the quarter compared to $131 for the same period last year.

Sirius' net loss improved by 44% to ($134.1) million for the, from ($237.8) million for the same period last year. The adjusted net loss for second quarter 2007 (adjusted to exclude stock-based compensation) improved to ($117.1) million down from ($159.6) million for Q2 2006.

2007 Guidance:

  • Total revenue approaching $1 billion
  • Over 8 million subs
  • Avg churn to 2.2% - 2.4%
  • SAC approaching $100
Check out the full financial info after the jump...

 

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July 26, 2007

XM Satellite Radio announces 2Q07 results, loss narrows

Thursday, July 26, 2007 at 9:00 AM

XM Satellite RadioXM Satellite Radio (XMSR) announced their 2Q06 earnings results, showing that net loss was down  $176 million from $229 million a year earlier. Revenue for this year's second quarter increased 22% year over year to $277 million compared to $228 million in the 2006 second quarter.

XM ended 2Q07 with more than 8.25 million subscribers.

In Q2 2007, XM had 942,000 gross subscriber additions and 338,000 net subscriber additions - compared to 926,000 gross and 398,000 net subscriber additions in the same period last year.

2Q07 SAC came in at $75 compared to $67 in 2Q06. Second quarter 2007 SAC includes $10 for inventory-related charges as well as a $10 increase as a result of continued OEM growth from increased production by our newer automotive partners.

CPGA in the 2007 second quarter rose to $121 compared to $112 in the second quarter of 2006.

Adjusted operating loss (formerly adjusted EBITDA) was $47 million compared to a loss of $46 million in the same period of 2006. This adjusted operating loss includes $4 million in expenses related to XM's pending merger with Sirius Satellite Radio.

Full financial report after the jump. Earnings call is scheduled for 10am ET, and as usual, Orbitcast will be live-blogging the call...

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July 25, 2007

XM's post-merger line up

Wednesday, July 25, 2007 at 6:35 PM

And along with the Sirius post-merger line up, here's the XM version. Pretty much the same concept (makes sense since they're merging) as Sirius' line up, but with the appropriate XM channels.

XM Post-Merger Channel Line Up

Again, the reason why you see "Select Sirius" channels is because the content agreements likely haven't been fully negotiated yet. Another difference that many will notice (and already have noticed) is the pricing of each services' shock jocks. Howard Stern is priced at an additional $6 while O&A are at $3.

Though note that Oprah is priced at $3 and XM's Sports Package is priced at $6, while Sirius' Sports Package is priced at $5.

Either way, that's not the point. Check out the rest of XM's post-merger line up after the jump...

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Sirius' post-merger line up

Wednesday, July 25, 2007 at 5:01 PM

For those who aren't into reading FCC filings, here's the proposed post-merger A La Carte package line-up for Sirius Satellite Radio.

It's pretty much self-explanatory, so g'head check it out here and after the jump...

Sirius Post-Merger A La Carte Packages

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July 23, 2007

XM and Sirius detail their A La Carte offering

Monday, July 23, 2007 at 10:38 AM

XM+Sirius merger

BREAKING: XM and Sirius have jointly announced the details on their A La Carte packages offered as a merged company. For the first time ever, consumers will be able to pay based on their individual preferences.

We're not talking "faux" A La Carte here. This is the real deal. 

There will be two a la carte options:

  • A La Carte 1 - Customers can choose 50 channels from either XM or Sirius, for $6.99/month. That's a 46% reduction from the current price of $12.95. Additional channels will cost you only $0.25/each, but no one choosing this package will pay over the $12.95 price.
  • A La Carte 2 - Allows subscribers to choose 100 channels for $14.99/month. Will let Sirius customers select from some of "the best" of XM's programming and vice versa. "Best of Both" packages will be available on existing radios.
In addition, there will be other plans made available:
  • Best of Both package - Continue to receive your current existing Sirius or XM programming, plus get the option to add the "best of" channels from Sirius or XM, for only $16.95/month. That's a 34% savings to subscribing to both services today.
  • Two Family-Friendly packages:
    • An "XM Everything" or "Sirius Everything" family-friendly package - but with adult content filtered out - comes in at $11.95/month. This also allows you to block adult-themed programming and, for the first time, receive a price credit as a result.
    • Add on a "Best of" package from either Sirius or XM, and the price goes up to only $14.95/month (a $2 savings from the regular "best of" package).
  • Several other new programming packages:
    • Sirius Mostly Music, or XM Mostly Music - $9.99/month for, well, mostly music.
    • Sirius News, Sports and Talk programming or XM News, Sports and Talk programming - again, also $9.99/month and pretty self-explanatory.
  • XM Everything or Sirius Everything - $12.99/month gets you a similar package to what you're receiving today. The current $6.99 multi-receiver packages will still continue.
All the new plans, in total there will be 8 new packages, will range from $6.99 - $16.99/month.

A la carte programming will be available starting within one year following the merger, and the other programming options will be available beginning within six months after the merger.

"Mel and I are very excited about being able to offer a la carte programming," said Gary Parsons, Chairman of XM Satellite Radio. "These plans will further demonstrate why this merger is overwhelmingly good for consumers and in the public interest."

Both Sirius and XM will file joint reply comments with the FCC tomorrow detailing all these packages for regulators.

[View A La Carte Details (PDF)] 

UPDATE: Note that the A La Carte packages will only be available to people who buy the next-generation satellite radio receivers. This is why the timing is set to further out than the other packages. Thanks ChrisM!

July 20, 2007

Audiovox XpressR XM radio unboxed

Friday, July 20, 2007 at 6:28 PM

Audiovox XpressR
Well surprise surprise, a shiny new Audiovox XpressR XM satellite radio just arrived for me to grope and fondle it for a bit. (Sadly, I don't get to keep any review units.) Of all the plug-and-plays on the market, the XpressR is arguably the most advanced, so I can't wait to give a thorough workover and review.

But for now, here's the unboxing available for your mass consumption after the jump... 

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July 19, 2007

Analysts weigh in on merger prospects

Thursday, July 19, 2007 at 5:43 AM

XM, Sirius Merger
Now that Phase One of the FCC comment period is over, analysts have been weighing in on the prospects of an XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) and Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) merger going through.

Bank of America analyst Jonathan Jacoby, who has been a bit of negative-nancy over the merger as of late, increased his odds on the merger in a recent note. BoA's D.C. contacts peg the probability of a merger passing regulatory approval to around 35% (up from under 30% about 3-months ago).

Bear Stearns analyst Bob Peck, who tends to lean on the more positive side of the merger, issued a note earlier this week stating that the merger would be approved based on merits. Peck seems to think that Sirius and XM will provide more concrete details on a combined company "drawing regulatory focus towards the tangible consumer benefits that will arise from the merger."

Cowen & Co. analyst Thomas Watts said negative sentiment toward the Sirius/XM merger are reversing. Ever since the FCC comment period opened up in early June, "sentiment for XM's merger with Sirius has shifted from negative to positive with more than 3,500 diverse supporters contacting the FCC," Watts wrote in a client note Wednesday. Watts thinks there's a better than 50% chance of the merger going through.

Credit Suisse analyst Bryan Kraft also felt that the Sirius-XM merger has a better than 50% chance of passing regulatory muster. He puts XMSR at $12.50 on a standalone basis and $18 if the merger passes, but in 12-months he thinks those values would go to $14 and $20 respectively.

Sirius-XM really need to provide more details on the A La Carte pricing, pricing for all packages (basic, standard, and "best of" packages), and any price guarantees for the years to come. Simply repeating the mantra "more choices, better prices" is no more effective that the NAB's "merger to monopoly" line. There needs to be details to back it up. The ball is in XM-Sirius' court, so let's play.

July 16, 2007

FCC sets comment period for satellite merger rule

Monday, July 16, 2007 at 1:29 PM

Sirius and XM mergerIn late June, the Federal Communications Commission invited public comments on whether the 1997 SDARS license prohibited a merger between Sirius and XM.

The specific aspect that is in question is whether on whether the language in the license that prohibited the transfer of control of one satellite radio licensee to the other, actually constitutes a binding Commission rule. The FCC is seeking comment on whether they should waive, modify or repeal the transfer prohibition. In their Notice (PDF), the FCC said that the comments, and reply comments, would begin in 30 and 45 days respectively.

Well, that clock has begun.

Comments must be filed on or before August 13, 2007, and reply comments must be filed on or
before August 27, 2007. Use the same Docket Number as before (07-57).

[Read Public Notice (PDF)] 

July 6, 2007

Interoperable Radios: Are they already out there?

Friday, July 6, 2007 at 8:41 AM

Interoperable Satellite Radios
Interoperable Satellite Radio receivers. For the consumer, it would be the ultimate in flexibility: the ability to buy a single radio and choose between Sirius or XM as you desire. But it's just a dream, right?

What if it was a reality? What if Interoperable satellite radios existed, right now?

That's what is being suggested by Michael Hartleib in a series of communications to the FCC. But before we entertain this notion, let's actually define what "Interoperable Radios" really are. Without a definition you've got, well, nothing.

In his letter to the FCC, Hartleib defines an "Interoperable Radio" as a receiver with chipsets that can process signals from either Sirius or XM, and "would require some type of switching mechanism to move between one service provider to the other." Think of it like switching between AM and FM. While in AM, you can only listen to AM stations, and while in FM you can only listen to FM stations. Easy concept right?

Then there's a "Dual Mode Radio." Dual Mode Radios have chipsets that can receive and process both XM and Sirius satellite signals, simultaneously, "therefore giving consumers continuous access to ALL satellite radio channels." Another easy concept to digest. In one hand you have Interoperable, which switches between services; and in the other you have Dual Mode, which mashes them all together at once.

Now here's the kicker:
"I have been told this [Interoperable Radios] could be achieved via a firmware update from the satellites to the receivers," Hartleib writes in the letter.

Let that sink in for a minute. Interoperable Radios - receivers that can switch between XM or Sirius - might already exist. And all you need to make it happen, is an over-the-air firmware update.

The problem is that they're not commercially available. There's just never been a good business case to bring that capability to market. Understandably so.

The fact is, the FCC never really enforced the Interoperable Mandate of the SDARS license. They required the development of an Interoperable receiver, but never created a reason for it to be commercially available. You can't blame Sirius or XM for not pushing this. Both have spent billions just to acquire the customers they already have. Why further dilute your product by allowing consumers to switch? The Wireless industry doesn't do it... and they MAKE money!

In case you're wondering, Michael Hartleib actually met with Michelle Carey, Senior Legal Advisor to Chairman Martin and a representative of the Media Bureau in late June (PDF). And the letter (PDF) I'm referring to here was actually a follow up to help define the terminology, and reconfirm his position. It's packed with gems like calling the NAB "misinformed and/or disingenuous" so if you want read it, just follow the jump below...

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July 2007 (11)