Commercials on Satellite Radio (could it work?)

Thursday, February 1, 2007 at 11:29 AM
Tags: 2, XM

Music ListeningThe Detroit News published an article today, Ads invade satellite radio, that talks about commercials being played on satellite radio. Specifically commercials on XM's music channels... ok you say, last year's news.

And indeed it is, the article gives us little in 'news' other than it irritates some subscribers and doesn't irritate others. Wow, earth shattering revelations. But the fact is, advertising revenue is something that will feed both satellite radio services' bottomline. Even Mel Karmazin predicted that Sirius will reach $100 million in ad revenue in 2007... that's not small potatoes.

One key difference between terrestrial and satellite radio is that the satellite model will never be dependent on advertising as it's sole source of revenue. So you won't reach the situation where genres are axed in favor of more ad-friendly genres.

But then there's this post in Hear 2.0 about how XM should run commercials in their XM Radio Online internet radio service (uncanny timing there Mark). Rather than giving away a 3-day trial, they should give XMRO away for free, but instead run commercials in the online stream. Curious thought. Let's entertain it for a bit.

Under this concept, the online stream would run commercials in the music channels - and rather than losing marketshare/mindshare to other Internet radio stations - they would be a player among them. Exposure to the product would skyrocket, because... well, it's free for an unlimited time. Mark suggests that subscribers won't care about this change because they're two separate brands.

Ok, so that last point is where I disagree. We subscribers are paying for the content, whether it's online or not, we don't care. There's a monthly charge, and we want what we're paying for. BUT, that doesn't mean there can't be a free Online Satellite Radio radio service with commercials.

(Keep reading, I'm developing an idea here.) 

So in "the beginning" when XM and Sirius developed the 3-day online trial, it had a two-fold purpose. One was to get people to experience the product (a key to converting to satellite radio), the other was to get people to hand over their email address for lead generation.

But is 3-days enough? Is one-month even enough? I think there's a reason why the OEM trials, at their minimum, extend for 3-months. Satellite radio is an immersive process. Get the consumer to hear the content and they eventually subscribe.

Also, back "then" there wasn't nearly enough advertising inventory to fill up all the online channels, and to make it a profitable undertaking. It's easy to just say "dude, just add commercials!" but there's a whole eco-system that needs to be nurtured in order for that to pull in a decent amount of revenue.

And then there's cannibalization and attrition. How many people would rather listen to a free commercial-laden version, over those who pay for the online-only versions? I'm not sure, but I can bet that the revenue driven by XMRO and SIR is meager at best. And would churn increase if a free version was available? Quite possibly. There's a value-added by being able to access XM and Sirius everywhere (i.e., via satellite), but there's probably a large number of those who listen over the computer at work. You will most definitely see those who pay for the online-only versions leaving for the free version in hoards.

Ok, so we need to keep churn in check. Here's how:

Create two online services. One is the commercial-laden free version. The other is the subscriber-only, commercial-free version. The free service may even exclude some premiere content that is only available to subscribers. In addition to increased advertising revenue (greater reach = high asking price, more sponsors, etc), both services have the ability to run spots touting the benefits of becoming a subscriber. It's like an online infomercial.

Add to that the exposure to the content. Shows that otherwise wouldn't see the light of day outside of the services would get exposure - and a following. Want to get it in your car? Pay up cheapskate.

Not sure if it would work as obviously the bean counters have a greater sense of the numbers, but while it's true that satellite radio is in the subscription business, they're also in the content-business. And getting that content heard by as many people as possible, with the tease of exclusivity, is the road to conversion.

Thoughts? 

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Comments

One of the potentially powerful revenue opportunities if the 2 services were combined would be the ability to offer one commercial-free music version at rates comparable to or a little higher than today's and one version with commercials on the music channels (not as much as terrestrial, but more in line with XMs original intent) at a nominal fee. The commercial-free music version would still carry the premium/exclusive content. The commercial-based service nominal fee could be incorporated into the purchase price of the vehicle or hardware. Instead of getting revenue from 50% of vehicles equipped with satrad, you would be getting revenue from 100% of those vehicles.

thoughts? yea I got some.
#1 this article could be started by the NAB/RIAA or other to highlight the "comming commercials" on commercial free sat rad their by negating the advantage and reason for anyone to purchace sat rad.

#2 it could also be the NAB behind it to prepare HD radio for commercials as they will not be commercial free for ever.

#3 as for keeping Churn in Check. I think bot XM and Sirius should have a selection of 4-10 streams, Maybe these streems constantly rotate or rotate daily and these streems would not cost a dime to anyone. This should be avaialble on all factory installed Auto Receivers. No more trial period.

#4 a loyalty discount for renewing subscribers.

#5 XM and sirius should put an end to the merger Crap once and for all and together buy out one of the big music lables. Become the RIAA. Then have EXCLUSIVE Musical content. Or better yet.. start a Sat Rad music label.. .. you want to hear artist "X" .. its only on satellite. Oh you have it on your Ipod? cool.. did you hear the new one from Artist "X"? Whats that? Not available from apple? Hummmm?

#6 compelling content is pretty much limited to a few sports and personalities once your content package extends past Music. So lock up music. Pay Artists directly. Bypass the RIAA.

One of the potentially powerful revenue opportunities if the 2 services were combined would be the ability to offer one commercial-free music version at rates comparable to or a little higher than today's and one version with commercials on the music channels (not as much as terrestrial, but more in line with XMs original intent) at a nominal fee. The commercial-free music version would still carry the premium/exclusive content. The commercial-based service nominal fee could be incorporated into the purchase price of the vehicle or hardware. Instead of getting revenue from 50% of vehicles equipped with satrad, you would be getting revenue from 100% of those vehicles.

lol


Sirius will reach $100 in ad revenue in 2007... that's not small potatoes.

Adding commercials to either the online stream or the hardware version would not surprise at all. We pay to watch commercials from our cable tv.

Using the commercials to promote the brand is a no brainer and surprised it hasn't been rolled out yet. The 3 day trial is also much to low. At least a 2 week trial is needed for anyone to make a decision. There are 2 computer programs that I have downloaded on a trial basis. One had a 1 month trial and the other had a 12 day trial. The 1 month trial program was neat but I realized that it was not for me. The 12day trial is a great program but I haven't bought it yet because I haven't had the time to fully evaluate it yet.

There will be those already paying for a wireless internet service who don't want to pay an extra premium for online membership. They will already have the ability to take satellite radio with them, commercials or not. I believe a bigger selling point would be increased sound quality with a paid-for service. Personally, I subscribe to satellite for the decidedly NON-commercial content.

Two internet streams is the way to go. I would be really pissed if Sirius put commercials in my subscriber, online stream. I pay a monthly fee for no commercials on and off line.

Ryan, was that supposed to be $100 Million in ad revenue on Sirius?

Second, you bring up some interesting points, considering that ad revenue on SDARS could NEVER approach terrestrial because their is a far smaller listener base. It would literally be years before it becomes a significant revenue stream, not that a $100 million is small potatoes, but it is in the overall picture compared to terrestrial and television.

XM and Sirius should provide some of their commercial channels in rotation for free on the OEM's as a "teaser". Great idea jeff.

I wouldn't mind text/image ads on the online player. Am I the first one that thought of that?

I don't care how many theoretical webs are spun about this service or that service...when they start commercials and become as annoying in that regard as terrestrial radio, I will drop the service. Period. I know there are many that feel the same way. I bought into satellite radio because I could listen without commercials. I realize that there are, in fact, commercials on many of the satellite radio channels and I accept that. But if they become more intrusive, I will go back to terrestrial radio in a heartbeat.

ABSOLUTELY NOT! One reason I like satellite radio is no commercials. Commercials will just ruin it.

(yes, that's supposed to be $100 million thankyouverymuch. Ugh. I'll fix that right now.)

Dan, Justin: Understand that I'm not saying that commercials should be introduced for paying subscribers. What I'm thinking actually doesn't change the experience for the subscriber at all. It's a privilege to not have to hear commercials... one that we're all willing to pay for.

I'm talking about free streams of the online service only. Creating a method to generate revenue while advertising yourself at the same time. Kill the 3-day free trials, and make them unlimited free trials - but with commercials to make up the difference.

I just don't know if the 3-day free trial is a deciding factor in subscribing. Yes, they get an email address in return, but is that more valuable than an advertising-based revenue stream?

The commercials should only be on the "teaser". If SDARS ever had commercials on all the music channels, I bet over 60% would drop the service easily. Commercial-free, and music genres not available on terrestrial, are the biggest assets to satellite radio, period.

I love music and absolutely can’t tolerate commercials; that is the main reason I subscribe to Satellite radio. Since subscribing to satellite radio, my quality of life and stress levels have improved immensely. I think anything to do with putting commercials in with music on satellite radio is a really bad idea.

Sirius subscribers already get a free Internet radio account with every hardware account. I use Sirius Internet Radio (SIR) at work all the time, and if I didn’t mind listening to commercials, I would listen to one of the thousands of free internet radio streams that are already available and wouldn’t need to bother with Sirius.

In my opinion, splitting the streams to commercial and non commercial versions would cost much more than it is worth, both in lost subscribers and the added cost to produce, distribute, and manage the additional streams. I can’t imagine anyone listening to the free, commercial-laden version of Sirius or XM and deciding that they need to subscribe; being commercial-free is the main thing that sets SatRad apart from terrestrial radio.

It actually isn't that difficult to do this from a technical perspective. It doesn't require programming a commercial-preview version of each channel.

It only requires something akin to a DVR, or more properly, the replay features of the modern radios.

Every so often, between songs, simply pause the stream and play a spot. If the online version falls more than a song behind the satellite, simply skip a song.

If the station is being voice-tracked, the result will be seamless. If it's live-show oriented, seamlessness will get a little more difficult (especially if you're always crossfading between tracks in the music blocks.

"I wouldn't mind text/image ads on the online player."

If the display was a large color 'touch' screen (like the iPHONE), XM could put album art and / or text or picture ADs on the screen without interrupting the audio of the commercial-free music channels. I could handle that. Wouldn't bother me for XM to advertise the CD's. That would be cool. In-fact, I want a BUY CD button on the new generation radios.

The 4 Clearchannel stations must go !

A Coke or Pepsi photo ad - on the display - I could tolerate. But not Preparation-H, I have standards !

I will cancel my subscription the minute Sirius puts ads on the music channels. I already find it unconscionable that there are ads on the talk channels.

As soon as XM or Sirius start running commercials on their music stations is the minute I cancel my accounts. The only reason I subscribe to satellite radio is to get away from commercials. I'll go IPod only when the commerecials start. And I suspect most other subscribers will do the same thing.

Might as well cancel your XM then, they have had commercial music going on a year now. Sirius is still 100% commercial free music.

If commercials permeate sat radio I think many of us will leave. We pay so there isn't 20 minutes of commercials per hour.

JAG, you tell a major half-truth regarding XM and commercials. 4 Clear Channel owned stations are running commercials. XM can't do anything about it until the deal they signed runs out. They did add 10 more commercial free stations to make up for it and XM has more commercial free music stations than Sirius.

What you did is akin to saying your girlfriend is still a virgin but leaving out the part where she takes it up the ass.

i finally took the plunge on sat-radio this past christmastime. i listen to both ad-laced (talk) and nonad-laced channels. the ad-laced, i expect it as the programming (talk) is supported by that revenue.. but i also bought because a) the wider music choice than terrestrial and b) no advertising. i bought a 1-year contract up-front and a semi-pricey player.. but will happily walk away and return to my ipod nano if xm does this. at that stage, they have NO advantage over my personal selection of music.

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