Now that the merger is approved, this will be presumably the last time we can compare the subscribers number of between Sirius and XM. Interestingly enough, this is the first time in a long time that XM has outpaced Sirius in net subscriber additions.
The above graph shows total cumulative subscribers dating back to the fourth-quarter of 2001. It's neat to see Sirius' sharp growth curve has started to level out since late 2007. That's not to say that subscriber growth has stalled - hardly - but the shape of the curve is starting to bend.
The above column graph shows the quarterly gross subscriber additions between both Sirius and XM dating back to two-years. Note that XM lost marketshare in gross additions back in late 2006 by a significant margin (about 200k subscribers). But since then, the gap between the two companies has steadily narrowed. In the first quarter of this year, XM regained its gross subscriber additional lead, but only by a slim margin. I think you can attribute this near-parity performance to increased penetration as OEM equipment in automobiles. That's both a great testament to the strength of the channel, and pretty scary thought about the dependency on a single industry.
Now we look at the quarterly net subscriber additions between Sirius and XM, and here you can see that for the first time in a long time, XM has outpaced Sirius in net additions. Derive what you want out of that, but we're not talking about a significant margin here. The gap closed a lot in the first-quarter of this year, and then the tables turned this past quarter.
I'm not sure if we can draw any eye opening conclusions here, because from this point forward it's a totally different ball game. These are just historical numbers. The various programming packages - including A La Carte packages - interoperable radios, and soon-to-be-renegotiated content deals are going to alter how this landscape looks going forward.
Welcome to the new chapter.
Welcome to the new chapter.
Why is the stock down .10?
Why isn't cnbc talking about the merger?
Thoughts?
WHEN ARE THE NEW CHANNEL LINEUPS AND CROSSOVER OF PROGRAMMING GOING TO TAKE PLACE?
It's Baseball season...Pretty simple.
CNBC has been a leading basher of this merger. Why would they start talking about it now? Faber and Jacoby (remember him?) are butt buddies, and Faber has slammed SIRI/XM at every opportunity. Sooner or later, you guys will get it...This merger is opposed by politicians, and therefore any semblance of fairness in the media will be ignored.
Looks like XM is back in the lead, both in gross and net adds. Who saw this coming? Now that the big programming deals are done (i.e. the Stern Factor) we are seeing OEM being the most important as predicted. Took long enough... but either way, don't tell me SIRIUS didn't need this merger more than XM, they locked up the OEM deals early and it shows now how important that was. Fortunately for SIRIUS they don't have to worry about that anymore it looks like.
And they can maybe finally stop counting parking lot subs, too? Wouldn't that be crazy...I have a feeling their decline the last few quarters is due to the churn of those exactly parking lot subs now that retail is shit for both of them.
Not to stir the pot, but many people (including myself) saw this coming years ago.
SIRI's sub lead was temporary (retail). OEM is the king, always has been, always will be.
XM would have continued to distance itself from SIRI had the trend continued. SIRI would never have caught them. XM's OEM contracts clearly gave them an extra 30% growth advantage.
I believe Plowboy finally saw the light on a post here in the forums. A bunch of us did warn you 2 years ago, man. Thanks to the merger, it really doesn't matter anymore.
Plowboy follows numbers, not after the fact speculation. When the numbers change, so does my investing thesis and cash allocation.
until they bring out tech breaking new products for the consumer, there will be minimal growth in the retail arena--I havent seen much promotion the past year in Best buy, Circuit City etc. either
Take a look at the income statement XM increased their spending on selling while Sirius decreased their investment. Making a leap here... but that would have been a smart strategic decision during the merger process to not invest too much money in a process to gain subs while there was uncertainty in the marketplace in which service to buy. Why spend alot of extra money for a few more subscribers than the other guy. Especially if those might be your subs anyway.
wtf is up with the stock price? tons of good news and the plummet continues...
Plowboy follows numbers, not after the fact speculation. When the numbers change, so does my investing thesis and cash allocation.
Posted by: Plowboy | July 28, 2008 10:34 AM
There's nothing speculative about it. Retail was a false presumption as the driving force for SDARS. It never was, it never will be. It has always been about OEM, because SDARS driving force for business is the automobile. Retail was secondary to the primary driving force.
This is what many people investing in these companies couldn't comprehend. You (and many others) simply saw SIRI retail kicking XM retail when retail wasn't intended to be the driving force. It's really that simple.
So how many subs is SIRIXM going to lose when Open&Anus get the big boot? 50 bloated fat fucks living in moms basement. Can we graph them into this equation? Hah, fucking doubt it. They will have no impact, just like 0.0
Podcast Willy here we come!
Sorry, that post at 10:56 by anonymous was mine.
XM WINS IN THE END
MORE TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS, AND MORE NET SUBS DURING THE FINAL QUARTER BEFORE THE MERGER.
SORRY SIRI FANBOYS, BUT YOUR SIDE LOST.
RON & FEZ, NOON TO 3
Aren't mergers fun! ... only down 7-10% as all those who bought for the pop gave up and are going home. Expect to see Siri hit 1.75-1.85 before this makes a bottom. Not pretty, but part of the game.
"This is what many people investing in these companies couldn't comprehend. You (and many others) simply saw SIRI retail kicking XM retail when retail wasn't intended to be the driving force. It's really that simple."
Correct. And why would anyone think any other way. The car saved radio from practical extinction, and there was no reason to believe it wouldn't be any different than for SatRad. That's where the listening and the consumption of the product is.
And with all due respect Plowboy, to state "Plowboy follows numbers, not after the fact speculation. When the numbers change, so does my investing thesis and cash allocation."
If you invest on that basis, you will always be late to the party. Once the facts are out, it's game over.
somebody please explain why siri is down .25...
XM got into the OEM market first and now those cars which either activated or did not active are showing up in the used car lots which represent 65-70% of all car sales. The retail sales market has been screwed up both by the FCC indecision and those persons who are upgrading older mobile models for different platforms such as the iPhones or moving into the internet. In addition people are waiting for the newer models with interoperability and the new tier pricing. As far as the drop in price, there has yet to be an official announcement by Sirius and XM....it sur is quiet by both the networks, companies, and government. Just bought more XM playing the arb.
"somebody please explain why siri is down .25..."
Merger didn't happen fast enough, and Sirius ran out of cash.
They just dilluted your shares (again, might I add) $375 million to raise enough cash to operate through the merger process. Gee, guess Sirius really DID need the merger more than XM.
(Ducks)
XM WINS IN THE END
MORE TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS, AND MORE NET SUBS DURING THE FINAL QUARTER BEFORE THE MERGER.
SORRY SIRI FANBOYS, BUT YOUR SIDE LOST.
RON & FEZ, NOON TO 3
Umm, I hate to burst your bubble, but Sirus took over XM. They can't win, as they no longer exist. Thanks for playing though.
One of the reasons the stock price isn't showing anything could be the fact that the merged company hasn't put out any sort of statement since gaining approval Friday night. It would be nice just to hear something from Mel or anyone involved with the merger.
"XM got into the OEM market first and now those cars which either activated or did not active are showing up in the used car lots which represent 65-70% of all car sales. The retail sales market has been screwed up both by the FCC indecision and those persons who are upgrading older mobile models for different platforms such as the iPhones or moving into the internet. In addition people are waiting for the newer models with interoperability and the new tier pricing. As far as the drop in price, there has yet to be an official announcement by Sirius and XM....it sur is quiet by both the networks, companies, and government. Just bought more XM playing the arb."
XM also has always had MORE of the OEM market, while Sirius has dominated retail. In quaters where all retail sales (especially those costing more a month) are slow due to a wosening economy, XM is going to fair slightly better, because the deals involve little or no extra investment on the user's end (compared to the price of a new car).
Mel's no dummy, he knew that Sirius would dry up eventually and be more retail-dependent than the only competitor, so he merged em. He's a hell of a salesmen, always has been.
"The satellite merger undermines public radio.”
"There’s apparently an olive branch in Friday’s decision – the Wall Street Journal’s Amy Schatz says the FCC will issue a Notice of Inquiry about whether future satellite radio receivers should carry HD circuitry, so they can pick up local HD signals. Not analog signals, just the digital signals, which would theoretically spur more stations to think about going HD."
http://tinyurl.com/5pa7cf
Heads-up Satrad legal!
$2.00 today better be the damn bottom of this nightmare.
All this refinancing of debt, stock offering, market being down and no official announcement from Sirius/XM executives is all weighing.
This needs to get wrapped up by end of tomorrow already- it's been approved damnit !
Siri/XM's websites don't even say a peep about it. Look at XM merger update which still sitting at DOJ approval as the last action.
Pathetic.
Love it. Keep dropping. You wanted the merger, you got it and look, no big pop, stock price still sliding. Boo hoo hoo. Loved SDARS, will miss it.
I’ve lost so much money with this nightmare.
I’ve been watching CNBC all day (since 8:00 AM)
No mention, however they are about to discuss right now (powerlunch)—tune in.
"Love it. Keep dropping. You wanted the merger, you got it and look, no big pop, stock price still sliding. Boo hoo hoo. Loved SDARS, will miss it"
If NPR manages to get HD Radio mandated, then Satrad needs to fail - I'm with you, now! Yup the stock is sliding:
http://siriusnewsrumors.blogspot.com/2008/07/why-no-pop-this-morning-in-sirius.html
No pop, no fizzle! Wait until Chrysler and BMW, with others to follow, start installing Internet access!
Thought our host Ryan said "Welcome to the new chapter."?
Did someone forget to mention the approval to Mel? Is it only Orbitcast which knows about the merger? Where are the official updates direct from Sirius/XM? Channel lineups? Hardware? News Releases?
CRFCEO said...
"I think it will be done today come hell or high water...which may be preferable to what will happen with the stock this afternoon...its gonna tank bad in my opinion...I mean REAL bad...There is not enough buy side pressure and they are shorting the shit out of this with every sale...they are driving it down, and doing it intentionally... This is the biggest croc of shit I have ever witnessed..."
https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=5419855560029429780&postID=4882648418670223666
Love it, too!
Hugh Panero was right all along? Was his quick exit a jump off the sinking satradio ship?
Perhaps Mel screwed up big time?
Has the auto industry and consumers passed satradio by?
Perhaps no one wants to do business with a monopoly?
Bring Hugh Panero back!
I believe direct emails to sirius are in order:
investorrelations@siriusradio.com
We need clarity.
Love it. Keep dropping. You wanted the merger, you got it and look, no big pop, stock price still sliding. Boo hoo hoo. Loved SDARS, will miss it.
Posted by: pfreak | July 28, 2008 12:18 PM
======================
I absolutely blame the FCC on this. If they couldn't have given approval by mid-day this past Friday, they should've waited until today to give their approval. That way things would've been much better off. By doing it on Friday evening like they did, this thing lost all momentum because of the weekend. The FCC totally messed this up by approving this on a Friday night of all nights.
Thought our host Ryan said "Welcome to the new chapter."?
There is NO blaming outside parties anymore. Mel asked for this and he is getting this, and sadly investors and subscribers are getting this too. Honestly after almost 7 years of watching the management performance at both xm and sirius should we expect anything different now?
Too bad no one listened to a wise man named Ryan Saghir on Monday, June 26, 2006 at 1:10 PM
http://www.orbitcast.com/archives/sirius-xm-merger-enough-already.html
Am I the only one that thinks us subscribers are more excited about this merger, and the approval of it, than management is?
OK --- NOW THE HEAT IS ON MEL KARMAZIN. I'VE CHAMPIONED HIM AS A SIRI HERO, BUT NOW WITH THE CLOSURE OF THE MERGER, ALL EYES ARE ON MEL. AND SO FAR, HE IS NOT OFF TO A VERY GOOD START.
NOW HE'LL BEGIN TO BE IN THE FOREFRONT OF INVESTORS MINDS -- NOW THE NAB, C3SR, AND ALL OTHER MERGER OPPONENTS ARE OUT OF THE WAY. PERHAPS THE MERGER WAS A WAY FOR MEL TO ENJOY THE CAR SEAT A BIT LONGER. TIME WILL TELL. HE MAY BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE CEO OF THE NEW SIRIUS...IF HE DOESN'T COME OUT WITH SOME MAGIC BULLETS OR A SMOKING GUN.
I AM CERTAINLY NOT HAPPY WITH THIS STOCK PRICE. MEL TALKED ABOUT SHAREHOLDER VALUE AS A JUSTIFICATION OF THE MERGER WHEN IT HOVERED OVER $3 PER SHARE. NOW IT'S APPROVED AND WE ARE BRUSHING BOTTOM AGAIN! PERHAPS THE SHAREHOLDER VALUE HE WAS REFERRING TO WAS HIM BEING A SHAREHOLDER AND VALUING FROM MANAGING A LARGER ENTERPRISE. I THINK WE ALL MISSED THE RED HERRING IN THE MERGER.... IT WAS ALL, EMPHASIZE AND UNDERSCORE, THE TENURE OF MEL KARMAZIN AND GARY PARSONS AND THEIR FAILING COMPANIES.
Oh my, the investors are starting to turn on Mel now that the merger's been approved.....how about a little patience people?
"Why the FCC's treatment of the XM-Sirius merger is an abomination"
"On top of that, the FCC will embark on a new initiative to explore the possibility of including HD radio functionality into the XM and Sirius radios. That said, it didn't go so far as to make it a requirement just yet. And while some believe that this deal is a major blow to terrestrial radio, I think that argument is hogwash. The reality of the situation is that XM and Sirius were led around by the nose while the FCC and companies like Clear Channel did everything they could to weaken the two firms."
http://news.cnet.com/8301-13506_3-10000504-17.html
Good - The Press is starting to turn on the NAB bought-out FCC!
more subs on XM but no talent! (and in business 1-2 years longer then sirius and the gap is short)
MLB is your bread and butter!
I believe direct emails to sirius are in order:
investorrelations@siriusradio.com
We need clarity.
Thought our host Ryan said "Welcome to the new chapter."?
There is NO blaming outside parties anymore. The deal was approved, the other parties and the opinion of the press about those other parties involved with the merger process are not part of the new chapter.
Thought our host Ryan said "Welcome to the new chapter."?
There is NO blaming outside parties anymore. The deal was approved, the other parties and the opinion of the press about those other parties involved with the merger process are not part of the new chapter.
AC...you are worst then AIDS.
No shit the stock is gonna fall. The company is taking care of their debt which they must pay immediately. If not then obviosly they will be forced to pay a higher interest. This was no secret thats why their are alot of shorts and people putting them on HOLD OR SELL. They just issued more shares which dillutes the price even more. But it is the wisest thing they could do at this time. Also its a nice FU to the guys who buy and sell on every little jump hurting the stock even more.
Check back with Sirius/XM in 3 more quarters or so. Do you even fucking subscribe to sat radio? Godam, go pay somone to be your friend.
I guess Mel Math has finally caught up - As Chrysler and Ford redue their builds, there are fewer and fewer new parking lot subs for Met and Frear to count.
The great Ponzi Scheme has arrived. Look for negative sub growth as there will be no retail sales because of obsolete radios and no new oem as Chrysler and Ford dealers digest the cars collecting dust on the lots.
I don't own the shares of either company, but thought this was one of the greatest stock schemes ever. Why? Because it actually had a product, unlike Enron. But. like Enron, Sirius ends up in exactly the same spot - oblivion.
The bought-out NAB FCC played Satrad, destroying its stock value, and agreeing to open access - now, the FCC is going to mandate HD Radio into all future Satrad receivers. Watch - it will happen. Satrad - you got fucked royally by iBiquity/NAB/HD Alliance/FCC.
"I don't own the shares of either company, but thought this was one of the greatest stock schemes ever. The great Ponzi Scheme has arrived."
“HD Radio on the Offense”
"But after an investigation of HD Radio units, the stations playing HD, and the company that owns the technology; and some interviews with the wonks in DC, it looks like HD Radio is a high-level corporate scam, a huge carny shill... Between the high prices, poor listening options, homogenized content, and a decade and a half of FCC dealings that went into this monopoly, critics are calling the move to digital radio a 'catastrophe' and a 'complete giveaway' to behemoths such as CBS... All the major radio players, such as Clear Channel Communications, are iBiquity investors. Which means Clear Channel is paying itself for the right to broadcast, and every mom-and-pop station that wants to go digital also has pay the big boys. Nice setup!"
http://www.eastbayexpress.com/2007-03-07/music/hd-radio-on-the-offense
"Radio: Ponzi's back!"
"In 1918, we had Charles Ponzi. Ninety years later, we have Peter 'Sgt. Bilk-o' Ferrara. Schemes. From Ponzi to HD Radio. Ibiquity has the license and collects the fees. The HD Radio Alliance, which Sgt. Bilk-o runs, does the fast-talkin’, slow walkin’ hype. Right? Like the other schemes, the HD Radio edition begins with a hard-sell sales pitch to hook you in and establish the product. Right?"
http://gormanmediablog.blogspot.com/2008/03/radio-ponzis-back_27.html
"RAIN: Consumers, Wall Street Not Buying HD"
"There is no apparent revenue model for HD Radio. So what's the play here? There doesn’t seem to be one."
http://tinyurl.com/3cqnyq
Just like HD Radio! Maybe, they do deserve to be together! One Ponzi Scheme fucking the other!
You're all babies. People who bought for the pop are dumping. It will all be over in 3-4 more days.
Good article at
http://siriusbuzz.com/
Just got off the phone with Mr Davis office at xm media relations dept. and the word is that they r just putting the final touches on the merger and they hope to have it signed by the end of today's business day if not tommorow. I think xm and sirus need to be heard and we need to congratulate them for being so patient for almost 500 days could have been so easy to walk out on this deal but they didn't. The NAB are a bunch of scumbags and they don't have the power to stop this merger it will all end in the next day or two!!!
sirius xm file for chapter 11
Thought our host Ryan said "Welcome to the new chapter."?
Pocketradio please do not ruin yet another thread here at Orbitcast with reposts and your opinion and hate of HD Radio. (Which by the way is not mentioned at all, and has nothing to do with "the new chapter" of Sirius/Xm.
There is NO blaming outside parties anymore. The deal was approved, the other parties and the opinion of the press about those other parties involved with the merger process are not part of the new chapter.
My level of pissed off just hit an intra-day high.
If anyone wants to see the final approval of xm-sirius merger go to www.fcc.gov and its on there yeah!!!
Mother Fucker.
Will 20,000 shares of Sirius still be worth enough tomorrow for me to sell to buy a gun to blow my head off?
Probably not.
Are we really supposed to endure another 3 days of this shorting BS?
Back to where we were a month ago - this is so cool, I'm having so much fun
Has investing some how become mandatory? Wasn't the merge of sirius/xm what was wanted?
"Wasn't the merge of sirius/xm what was wanted?"
Yeah, it was. The selling of 375 million fucking shares on the one day that investors who've been loyal for years could have taken a little bit of a profit on the merger pop wasn't.
You believe that hogwash Mel said about looking out for investors?
Oh no....
01.26.05
New York Post on Wednesday, reported that Sirius Satellite Radio and XM Satellite Radio were beginning the dance of merger negotiations. Sirius Chief Executive Mel Karmazin scoffed at the XM merger report. "I have not met with the chairman or CEO [of XM], so I have no idea where any of this came from," he said on a conference call Wednesday.
June 27 2006
Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. Chief Executive Mel Karmazin said Monday he would like to buy archrival XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc., but price and regulatory hurdles would be issues. Karmazin, speaking at a conference in New York, stressed, however, that Sirius's business plan "doesn't really involve our doing a deal" and also indicated he wasn't interested in Sirius being bought. "Regarding XM - would we like to buy them? Sure. We'd love to buy them. Price would matter, so that would be an issue... (and) there would definitely be the regulatory issue," he said. "From our point of view, we don't see - other than if it was in the best interests of our shareholders - that we would be interested ever in being acquired," Karmazin added. Karmazin said he is optimistic about the business and expects Sirius to reach revenue of $3 billion by 2010, up from about $242 million in 2005.
"Investors want to know if these companies can make money (and) are we going to get a return for investors," he said. "Right now the company is losing money, and that makes it hard to value."
2/27/2007
Q: If you're allowed to merge, will you use the monopoly power to raise monthly fees above the current $12.95?
A: If we want to get more than the 10% of the population currently subscribing, we have to make it financially attractive, and there are still so many people that haven't been convinced that it's worth their while to pay for radio. If we can't get more subscribers at $12.95, what would make us think that we can get more at $15.95?
Q: After the merger closes, which programming from Sirius' content will be available on XM's service and vice versa?
A: What we need to do in this period of time is to work with our content partners. Most of those contracts didn't contemplate a combination.
Q: How soon after the merger closes will XM subscribers be able to listen to Sirius content?
A: It could start days (after). One of our priorities would be to work with our content providers to get our content in place so that we would be able to do this simultaneously with the merger.
Q: Once the dual-chip device hits the market, what will happen to the satellite radios that consumers currently have?
A: The radios won't be obsolete. … Let's assume that you are a subscriber and you like Sirius. If you want to get something additional, then that's your choice and you can always decide to buy a new radio. But we're not migrating you or forcing you to pick up some XM content (on a dual device). So I think the opportunity of having one radio is again giving consumers more choice. Shortly after the merger, we will have a radio that will be able to get both services, so you'll have a choice if you want to buy that radio or not.
lies lies lies YEAH!
If you are loyal then you would stick through cause you know the payday that awaits. Maybe not anytime soon, but you know it will be huge. How would you raise 1-2 billion in debt? If you have an idea send it to mel.......boo whoo you didnt make money on the pop. You will make 40 times that if you just go long.
or not....
That XM gap would be wider if Sirius only counted real subs,,, not cars on parking lots.