Cramer: Sirius and XM need to "go nuclear"

Bullshit! Cramer is nothing more than a showman, and in Melvin's back pocket.

Have you seen either of the companies finances? It is not to far fetched, to see either of these companies going bankrupt. That's the truth plan and simple. Even with the merger, it maybe difficult to prove that Satellite Radio works as a business. The only thing that is clear, to me anyway, Satelite radio fans need this merger to survive or their will be no choice but to listen to terrestrial Radio.

FCC is still dragging its feet. XM is in trouble which ultimately may beneft SIRI. After June 30th things will really get interesting.

Cramer is correct on this. I have already spoken to Gary about it and he said that they are going to announce that XM is failing soon.

The first thing is both company's could easily go under, and would the government really care? Business fold every day in the U.S. These CEO's have ran these companies right into the ground with no chance in hell of ever making a profit let alone just paying for their operating expenses of maintaining satellites. I love the idea of satellite radio, but I think the business model is flawed. I hate to say it but not even a merger will save these companies as they will still ultimately go out of business anyway.

I have a feeling there are 3 people writing 100% of the posts on this sites. It's the same crap over and and over again!

SHUT THE F*CK UP!!!

Cramer is full of sh*t, get the right management in either staradio company and watch the fortunes turn around. Gary Parsons, Nate Davis, President and Lee Abrams should "go nuclear" and call off the "merge" and save xm from being taken over and stop Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin from making xm a footnote of history of failed media corporations. There is NO reason for xm to continue to be Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin bitch and there is NO reason Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin should cash in on xm's demise. IF xm were to finally do something with a backbone it would more than turn around the corporation and lead to churn from Sirius. xm forgot the golden rule of satradio There is am there is fm and there is XM. XM has always had the ability and the opportunity to do great things, but sadly xm's lame management made them more like am/fm and for over a year now have belittled xm into becomes the king of am and fm's Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin bitch. I for one think the prior and current french like actions are appalling. Xm should be leading the satradio industry instead of rolling over for Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin. Current XM management show that you guys have a backbone "go nuclear" and tell Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin where he can put his "merge"!

If one company does go bankrupt and only one survives, resulting in a monoply...would the FCC then break that remaining company down into peices and sell it off. (I think tahts what they did with a phone company ATT perhaps). If so how would that affect the stock price?

Anyone know the answer to this?

@1:40PM Coward: Are you American? If it wasn't for the Marquis de Lafayette and the French, you'd be speaking with a British accent right now.

As for XM, in the words of Eazy-E: "A bitch is a bitch."

I do like the way you think LAPTOP GAMER. Which is why there should be no "merge" XM and Sirius because it won't help. They both need to stay on their own and need to innovate the satradio market. I too agree the business plan is severely flawed, using sat's to provide audio is too costly when you figure in you can only charge so much AND you have to spend more than terrestrial radio (which has bigger pockets, more listeners, and more revenue) to continue to have the best content and talent and it's easy to know a "merge" will not solve the severely flawed business plan.

The only "go nuclear" plan should be to cancel the "merge" and show consumers both xm and Sirius are there to serve their customers through innovation while providing the best radio on radio. Direct competition is needed between xm and sirius.

Gaston LeClerque,

Are you French? If it wasn't for the American's, you'd be speaking with a German accent right now.

The big danger is that is one company fails then somebody will get to pick up the pieces for next to nothing and be on the air in no time. Sirius would be prevented from buying it. The special interest groups figure that dirt cheap is almost as good as free. That might be their thinking all along. It's not too big of a stretch to see this scenario playing out.

If XM and SIRIUS want to GO "NUKE," then there needs to be "ALL OUT WAREFARE" in a publicity campaign against the FCC, NAB, CONGRESS, and all others that have caused a delay in the decision.

If the merger is delayed or denied, then XM and SIRIUS should do an 'END AROUND(business partnership)' on the FCC(Federalized Criminal Cartel).

KEVIN MARTIN NEEDS TO BE PROSECUTED.

Uh oh said,
>>>FCC is still dragging its feet. XM is in trouble which ultimately may beneft SIRI. After June 30th things will really get interesting.

Unfortunately, by your statement - you obviously do not understand reading financials. To say that "XM is in trouble" and not say anything about Sirius, is pure naiveté. XM is not any more closer to going bankrupt, than Sirius is. A simple look at the liquidity positions of both companies -- and future cashflow needs will very quickly demonstrate this.

Too many people have been sucked in to this belief that "XM is in trouble" and that Sirius is just fine mentality. Unfortunately, none of them have taken the time to study the financials to see if what they believe is true.

As for Cramer -- he is admittedly friends with Karmazin (and Stern). His comments are clearly biased. With retail gross adds split 55/45 last quarter and with XM taking in the majority of OEM gross adds now -- plus with Sirius' total sub count getting closer to XM's -- the perceived growth of Sirius in relation to XM will continue to slow. This became evident finally in the last quarter and will continue here in Q2. It is obvious that Cramer didn't look beyond sub growth -- because had he looked more closely at the liquidity, financing needs and projected CaoEx outlays needed of each company, then he most certainly wouldn't be touting one over the other.

--

Cramer really is a complete idiot. Sirius basically did a out of court Bankruptcy 6 years ago. Did Sirius Go Away? As a matter of fact.. Did the music ever miss a beat. Of course not.

Globlastar waited 2 years in default waiting for the FCC to make a decision on a NPRM that would have brought new financing. In the end. Globalstar ran out of money waiting for the FCC to act, and filed Bankrutpcy themselves.

Did Globalstar go out of Business? Of course not. Service was never interrupted. The only thing that go effected was the shareholders who got wiped out. After the Bankruptcy, the new owner got Billions of dollars in assets for a dime on the dollar. And New Globalstar provided new pricing plans with much lower price points. You see, The Bankruptcy was actually good for the "public interests". Maybe not for the shareholders interest. But, the FCC doesn't really care about that.

Truth being know.. The FCC sees a good Bankruptcy as a good thing for consumers.

If either of these companies filed a petition, either company would have DIP financing standing at the door. Cramer should understand these basic concepts.

The music wouldn't skip a beat.. Only Shareholder value would be destroyed.

And so it goes,
PCSTEL

A-Coward, if you are right about the 3 people scenario, there are only two + me. This is my 2nd post, ever. But I am sure there are some pofessionals on these blogs being paid for by you know who. They ignore facts and spout the same BULL. It's shameful that the DOJ makes a wise, non-political decision and then gets shot down by the politicos. There are a lot of things wrong with this country that are caused by big money. And who speaks for SIRIUS and XM, just the consumer and the little guy. Long live Cramer and the DOJ.

PCSTEL, good post... with every comment made by Cramer on this merger, he demonstrates an obvious bias. Why? What are his intentions and what is he getting out of this, that is what want to know?

It's bankruptcy PROTECTION... not, they'rs going "out of business"... he knows better than that. CBS would be sitting there salivating for one of the companies to file for bankruptcy.

That aside, these two companies were in worse condition in 2002, than they are now. Yet both were able to refinance.

Cramer is right and XM needs to say no merger and we are gone.
That makes Mrtin the cause of the failure of XM. Martin is the reason bumper stickers .

Cramer is wrong and seeks the improbable.

Xm and Sirius needs to start an on air campaign (yesterday) communicating to their listeners the value of the merger and asking customers to contract their Senators and Representatives.

I have no idea why this strategy has not been used. It is overdue. Why have they not solicited the support of their base..... it's mind boggling.

NAB is swift boating Sirius and XM .. who sit idle. Enough!

Cramer is wrong and seeks the improbable.

Xm and Sirius needs to start an on air campaign (yesterday) communicating to their listeners the value of the merger and asking customers to contract their Senators and Representatives.

I have no idea why this strategy has not been used. It is overdue. Why have they not solicited the support of their base..... it's mind boggling.

NAB is swift boating Sirius and XM .. who sit idle. Enough!

Cramer is wrong and seeks the improbable.

Xm and Sirius needs to start an on air campaign (yesterday) communicating to their listeners the value of the merger and asking customers to contract their Senators and Representatives.

I have no idea why this strategy has not been used. It is overdue. Why have they not solicited the support of their base..... it's mind boggling.

NAB is swift boating Sirius and XM .. who sit idle. Enough!

Cramer is wrong and seeks the improbable.

Xm and Sirius needs to start an on air campaign (yesterday) communicating to their listeners the value of the merger and asking customers to contract their Senators and Representatives.

I have no idea why this strategy has not been used. It is overdue. Why have they not solicited the support of their base..... it's mind boggling.

NAB is swift boating Sirius and XM .. who sit idle. Enough!

Cramer is wrong and seeks the improbable.

Xm and Sirius needs to start an on air campaign (yesterday) communicating to their listeners the value of the merger and asking customers to contract their Senators and Representatives.

I have no idea why this strategy has not been used. It is overdue. Why have they not solicited the support of their base..... it's mind boggling.

NAB is swift boating Sirius and XM .. who sit idle. Enough!

Cramer is wrong and seeks the improbable.

Xm and Sirius needs to start an on air campaign (yesterday) communicating to their listeners the value of the merger and asking customers to contract their Senators and Representatives.

I have no idea why this strategy has not been used. It is overdue. Why have they not solicited the support of their base..... it's mind boggling.

NAB is swift boating Sirius and XM .. who sit idle. Enough!

Cramer is wrong and seeks the improbable.

Xm and Sirius needs to start an on air campaign (yesterday) communicating to their listeners the value of the merger and asking customers to contract their Senators and Representatives.

I have no idea why this strategy has not been used. It is overdue. Why have they not solicited the support of their base..... it's mind boggling.

NAB is swift boating Sirius and XM .. who sit idle. Enough!

Cramer is wrong and seeks the improbable.

Xm and Sirius needs to start an on air campaign (yesterday) communicating to their listeners the value of the merger and asking customers to contract their Senators and Representatives.

I have no idea why this strategy has not been used. It is overdue. Why have they not solicited the support of their base..... it's mind boggling.

NAB is swift boating Sirius and XM .. who sit idle. Enough!

Multiple posting was intentional.

KenB-Ohio,

Your posts in not based in fact. While the DOJ rubber stamped it's decision it was not at all wise, non-political, nor pro-consumer. The DOJ:

" the Division concluded that the evidence does not demonstrate that the proposed merger of XM and Sirius is likely to substantially lessen competition, and that the transaction therefore is not likely to harm consumers. The Division reached this conclusion because the evidence did not show that the merger would enable the parties to profitably increase prices to satellite radio customers for several reasons, including: a lack of competition between the parties in important segments even without the merger; the competitive alternative services available to consumers; technological change that is expected to make those alternatives increasingly attractive over time; and efficiencies likely to flow from the transaction that could benefit consumers.."

Maybe the evidence sucked but everyone here knows XM and Sirius do in fact compete with each other directly, and that direct competition is pro-consumer.

"“The Division’s investigation indicated that the parties are not likely to compete with respect to many segments of the satellite radio business even in the absence of the merger. Because customers must acquire equipment that is specialized to the satellite radio service to which they subscribe, and which cannot receive the other provider’s signal, there has never been significant competition for customers who have already subscribed to one or the other service. For potential new subscribers, past competition has resulted in XM and Sirius entering long-term, sole-source contracts that provide incentives to all of the major auto manufacturers to install their radios in new vehicles. The car manufacturer channel accounts for a large and growing share of all satellite radio sales; yet, as a result of these contracts, there is not likely to be significant further competition between the parties for satellite radio equipment and service sold through this channel for many years. In the retail channel, where the parties likely would continue to compete to attract new subscribers absent the merger, the Division found that the evidence did not support defining a market limited to the two satellite radio firms that would exclude various alternative sources for audio entertainment, and similarly did not establish that the combined firm could profitably sustain an increased price to satellite radio consumers. Substantial cost savings likely to flow from the transaction also undermined any inference of competitive harm. Finally, the likely evolution of technology in the future, including the expected introduction in the next several years of mobile broadband Internet devices, made it even more unlikely that the transaction would harm consumers in the longer term. Accordingly, the Division has closed its investigation of the proposed merger.”

This is where Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin and his xm counterparts have been misleading congress and it's own consumers. The FCC mandated interoperable satellite radios, Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin claims of one on his desk does not at all mean compliance and now the lack of these radio's in the market place are being used against the consumer.
http://contracts.onecle.com/sirius/xmradio.dev.2000.02.16.shtml

wake up to the truth KenB-Ohio, you as a fan of satradio are cheering for the wrong team.

firefox249, Kevin and the FCC are doing their JOBS. If anyone needs to do some time perhaps it's Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin for taking down another industry while lying and misleading congress and the ignorant with his BS.

Wake up folks. Just look at whats happening to xm, being Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin bitch is not at all healthy.

Plowboy,

"Xm and Sirius needs to start an on air campaign (yesterday) communicating to their listeners the value of the merger and asking customers to contract their Senators and Representatives. I have no idea why this strategy has not been used. It is overdue. Why have they not solicited the support of their base..... it's mind boggling. NAB is swift boating Sirius and XM .. who sit idle. Enough!" Posted by: Plowboy | June 13, 2008 2:53 PM

The NAB nor anyone else is "swift boating" anything. BUT Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin is misleading and lying to consumers and congress.

xm and sirius better continue to have enough sense not to ask their own customers to f**k themselves by pushing for Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin's "merge" scheme. For one there are not enough ignorant satradio sub's who would fall for xm and sirius's phony baloney plea's and it would piss everyone off hearing that s**t.

"Enough" is right "enough" of xm being Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin bitch, "enough" ignorant satradio fanboys thinking a "merge" is pro-consumer. "Enough" of satradio's true fans letting Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin destroy yet another industry.

Screw the French...Thta's what we did in WWII.....ooh lah lah...:) Spineless bastards!

I will be in gay Paris in August to spit off the Eiffel Tower. Can't wait...

Sirius and XM blah blah blah blah "merge" monopoly blah blah blah blah blah "Mel" Karmazin's blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah ignorant sat rad fan foys blah blah blah blah PRAISE THE NAB blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah

blah blah "merge" monopoly

*PAID FOR BY THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BROADCASTERS!

Sirius and XM blah blah blah blah "merge" monopoly blah blah blah blah blah "Mel" Karmazin's blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah ignorant sat rad fan foys blah blah blah blah PRAISE THE NAB blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah

blah blah "merge" monopoly

*PAID FOR BY THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BROADCASTERS!

Taking Plowboy's idea just that tiny step further to something which could work and make change:

What if us the satradio subs put a end to Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin's scheme of "merge" with our voices and wallets, helping the satradio industry save itself? Perhaps we should contact Nate Davis, n.davis@xmradio.com / Gary Parsons, g.parsons@xmradio.com and Joe Zarella j.zarella@xmradio.com letting them know their customers want them to put a stop to this "merge" scheme immediately. XM taking the lead on this and taking back the lead in satradio would go a long way with consumers and share holders. Stop xm being from Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin bitch

Come on Mr. Davis don't let us down

Corporate Mailing Address:
XM Programming Center and Corporate Headquarters
1500 Eckington Place, NE
Washington, DC 20002

Corporate Phone Numbers:
Phone: 202-380-4000
Fax: 202-380-4500
Listener Care: 800-XM-RADIO (800-967-2346)

If the DOJ just Rubberstamped this merger(What? 14 months) I hate to think what taking there timing and doing it the right way would be in your mind? Maybe your kids could get the outcome at there retirement, if the Chinease government lets them you retard! Go get your paycheck from the NAB, what are you getting for posting blogs on here. 10.00Hr for your college education. Selling your blood gets you more money and is more ethical!

Merger or not. If Satellite goes under I for one will never listen to Testicular again except for traffic or weather and that is for 3 minutes tops. The NAB and the companies they stood for killed themselves with their actions instead of embracing some of XM and Sirius's concepts. HD radio is just shitty programming with improved sound.

NO2FM.com

The NAB - National Association of Broadcasters - has been protecting their monopoly and the game is over! We support competition, they do not! Internet Radio is here to stay and you have spent millions trying to stop the merger between XM and Sirius. The game is over and we are sick and tired of it! I am calling for a boycott against FM radio in response to your ongoing campaign to protect FM radio from the competition.

"Multiple posting was intentional. "

YOU ARE AN ASS!

I can't believe Cramer thinks XM should be the provider to go under. Yes the Inno may be a few years old. But I tried Sirius. Even bought the Stiletto. Sirius CANNOT compete with XM's geo stationary Satellite system. Sirius has DROP OUTS all the time. XM rarely. I'd rather see the dog go bye bye.

"The NAB - National Association of Broadcasters - has been protecting their monopoly and the game is over! We support competition, they do not!"

¿¿¿¿¿¿¿ Let me see if i get this straight. A merged XM/Sirius WOULD NOT be a monopoly because they compete with AM/FM/HD Radio, IPODS, Internet Radio, Cell Phone radios, etc.

But AM/FM/HD Radio IS A monopoly because they compete with two SDARS, IPODS, Internet Radio, Cell Phone Radio, etc.???? And.... Allowing SIRI/XM to merge from two to one would therefore no longer classify them as a Monopoly??????

You know... Maybe.. Just Maybe you need to send your logic back to the "drawing board" again.

And so it goes,
PCSTEL

Where is Kevin this weekend,OH I don't know ,maybe on a plane heading over seas,see ya in July.When he gets back there better be only one company left..

j.dumanator,

Again labeling those who are speaking the TRUTH against this "merge" is whats makes YOU the "retard!"

take a step back, learn and listen before proving the "retard!" you are. Being Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin bitch is not at all healthy.

Greyfurgang,

The whole point of being a educated consumer and speaking out against the "merge" (and being a true fan of satradio is knowing satradio doesn't have to go under) Xm doesn't have to bow to Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin's ego and desire to kill them. Educated consumers know the "merge" is not about saving the satradio industry, it has been doing just the opposite and if allowed to go forward will the death of the satradio industry. The "merge" sure is not being done for consumers benefit, and if the industry is suffering even with the idea of "merge" then it's not being done for the satradio industry either. Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin had a big hand in killing terrestrial radio and now he's trying his best to kill off satradio and wants to cash out with his scheme. Most of know satradio is better than that, most of know the staradio industry deserves more, xm sure deserves more than to continue being Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin bitch till he kills them off with his "merge" scheme.

The only thing consumers can do now is tell XM to stop this "merge" and tell Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin to take a hike.... For the good of consumers, for the good of the satradio industry.

Corporate Mailing Address:
XM Programming Center and Corporate Headquarters
1500 Eckington Place, NE
Washington, DC 20002

Corporate Phone Numbers:
Phone: 202-380-4000
Fax: 202-380-4500
Listener Care: 800-XM-RADIO (800-967-2346)

Simpsonic,

Your boycott is laughable, your blame of the NAB for satradio's current problems is IDIOTIC.

"We support competition, they do not!" Really? YOU (by the way who's this "we" you speak of) are desperate to see a "merge" taking away vital direct competition in the satradio industry, taking away consumer choice in the satradio industry.

"you have spent millions trying to stop the merger between XM and Sirius" Really? (by the way by "you" you mistakenly accuse the NAB?) Do you know XM and Sirius have also spent millions on trying for this "merger"?

"The game is over and we are sick and tired of it!" There is that "we" again, who do you think YOU speaking for?

You are completely confused and desperate to blame someone. Your anger should rest with one person; Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin. Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin cooked up this scheme for a quick cash grab. The "merge" is not being done for consumers. The "merge" is not being done for the satradio industry. Better to listen and learn before also proving ignorance.

I really get a kick out of seeing the NAB boys squirm here. The merger will happen, satellite will dominate, and these low-life's will start paying royalties.

I've been writing letters on the NAB royalty idea... why should only satrad pay.... LMAO... I'm glad I'm not a NAB boy!

Dear Plow This,

I might be an ass, but I'm a smart one!

:) Bite me.

ENOUGH WITH THE MERGER!

Let Sirius die a very slow high contract death. Nobody needs to listen to those sports, shallow playlists, and those old hacks. ENOUGH I SAID! Im so sick of it all. Leave me and my Inno alone. MOTHER FUCKERS!

Homer sez: With retail gross adds split 55/45 last quarter and with XM taking in the majority of OEM gross adds now -- plus with Sirius' total sub count getting closer to XM's -- the perceived growth of Sirius in relation to XM will continue to slow. This became evident finally in the last quarter and will continue

Plowboy sez: Homer, why do you quote gross when not only doesn't "gross" pay the bills, and, in fact, XM's net retail was unbelievably negative.

Sirius has more net growth for 11 quarters and better (more lucrative) OEM contracts, and higher APRU's, and lesser quality content. That's why 90% of the market thinks XM is done for....and I agree with the market. No merger = no XMSR.

XM started one year before Siri and can't hold their lead.

hey dumbass. look around. how many cars have am/fm in their car? how many have fm or Sirius? yes, they (NAB) are protecting their monopoly.

and for the we. ask the cs3c (or whatever they call themselves) how many WE is!

evolve or die. The merger will help competition.

homer985...I never spoke about financials. XM is losing the subscriber battle and has already started to tap their emergency lines of credit. Surely if XM goes out of business then SIRI benefits. You don't need to check a debt to equity ratio to see that. Both companies are in trouble but one is in greater peril than than the other.

homer985 said,
"It's bankruptcy PROTECTION... not, they'rs going "out of business"... "

huh?

XM's model from day one is what got them here. The XM plan was predicated on them having about 7 million retail subs, generating, net of revshare, royalties, and billing (IOW direct variable costs) around $7 per subscriber-month (based on the $9.99 original subscription rate). That sub-level would throw around $600 million a year in cash available for fixed costs. Toss in around 4-5 million OEM subs at a net revenue of around $4/month and that's another $200 million a year. At that level you can fund expensive OEM deals that guarantee you a majority of subscriber gross and net adds.

And those deals are expensive. The typical OEM install costs XM around $70 in subsidies (based on SAC and that this SAC hasn't really changed even as the OEM has become dominant; and it's not because of the lag in Hyundai/Nissan/Toyota adds... SAC would be coming down faster from Q207 (which is when that item started ramping up) through Q108 (when those gross adds started being recorded in substantial numbers)). From GM and Honda, XM gets around $20-$25 up front per install. From Toyota, Hyundai, and Nissan, XM gets zilch upfront. On average, XM gets somewhere around $10 repaid upfront per install. That means that for an OEM install XM is not cash-positive on the install until, net of those cost-of-revenue items enumerated above, the OEM unit has generated $60 or so in self-paid revenue. In effect, the OEM program requires XM to burn $60 worth of cash per install.

Assuming 30% average OEM revshare on a $12.95 subscription, billing/customer service expenses of $1/month, and content revshare/royalties of around $1 month, and an effective conversion rate of 80% (60% GM/Honda (which is higher than the real conversion rate) and 100% Toyota/Hyundai/Nissan... the failed conversions from THN get baked into the $60 per install figure not into the revenue side), the net self-pay ARPU of an OEM install is between $5.50 and $6, so around 10 months of self-paying are required for the OEM install to pay for itself. Considering that you've got 3 months of promo status, and at least 3 months of on-the-lot status (before XM records the gross add, but after the subsidies have been incurred), you're looking at at least 16 months from install to repayment. A month or two more can safely be tacked on to discount future cash to present value. XM's cash requirement to keep the OEM program ticking over is thus something like $60 per gross add times a million gross adds per quarter times six quarters to repayment or, IOW, $360 million, on top of whatever fixed cost cash draws are there. Otherwise XM finds itself in a bit of a liquidity crunch. $360 million is high, but owing to the front-load payment vs. back-load repayment, the haircut for interim payments might cut it down to something like $240 million. The point is that with XM's other operations not quite positive and XM's liquidity situation not being much above $400 million last time I checked, XM as a going concern is a bit white-knuckle at the moment.

If XM had a million or two more retail subs, the cash flow generated from those subs should be sufficient to cover the costs of the OEM program until YoY growth in installs slows to a point where that program is self-sufficient. Retail was envisioned as a Mack truck pulling a few car carriers up a mountain road. Once the truck reaches the top, it can roll down the other side in a very efficient way (throwing off, eventually, a few billion a year in free cash flow like manna from heaven). Unfortunately the truck's engine gave out a few hundred feet from the pass. The cargo had to start helping the load over the pass.

Sirius to some extent has the same model, but the numbers are dramatically different. Sirius' OEM deals are designed for minimal cost. The average Sirius OEM install now costs around $90 in subsidies (that the relative disparity in hardware cost has narrowed like it has is one of the biggest unsung stories about this rivalry). However, Sirius' OEMs pay for promo periods at an average of around $10/month. With DCX (as they're still governed by the same basic OEM agreement) promoing for 12 months, Ford for 6, and most of the rest going for 3, the long-term average promo term is around 8 months. Figure that the average Sirius OEM install pays Sirius back about $75 upfront. That means that Sirius only has to recover $15-$20 from an install to break even.

Assuming $12.95 a month, 30% revshare and a conversion rate of 40%, with similar royalty/customer service/billing requirements. Sirius hypothetically nets about $3 a month per install in self-paying revenue. 5 months after the end of the normal promo period (13 months after the beginning of the promo period and around 16 months after the gross add was recorded), an OEM sub has paid for itself. Overall the time to repayment is basically level with XM.

If Sirius does 900k gross adds per quarter at $15 per gross add in net subsidy for six quarters, that's only $81 million in cash required to keep things ticking over on that program. With discounting, that's maybe $65-70 million in actual cash requirement for that program to sustain itself without starving the other aspects of operations.

Sirius does have around three-quarters of a billion dollars staring them in the face in required capex (the new satellites), while XM has no real capex needs on the horizon. Adding the OEM cash requirements to the capex and Sirius needs far more cash in the next few years than XM does.

However, there's a difference between borrowing to purchase a capital asset vs. borrowing to fund ongoing operations. It's somewhat easier to borrow to pay for the latter (read: rather difficult until the credit crunch works itself out) than it is for the former (read: damn fucking near impossible until the credit crunch works out).

"Sirius does have around three-quarters of a billion dollars staring them in the face in required capex (the new satellites), while XM has no real capex needs on the horizon. Adding the OEM cash requirements to the capex and Sirius needs far more cash in the next few years than XM does.

However, there's a difference between borrowing to purchase a capital asset vs. borrowing to fund ongoing operations."

XM financed their last GSO after it was in orbit with a capacity lease back. They leased the capacity of 1 of 4 in orbit XM GSO's.

Don't really see any reason why SIRI won't be able to do the same with a couple of NGSO and a GSO.

Frontmed has been whining about this uniformed dogma for a year now.

XM did it.. No reason why SIRI won't be able to do the same. Frontmed is just TOO BITTER to comprehend.

PCSTEL

The FCC has only accelerated the demise of both companies. Cramer mentioned how both companies are like a call option. For those of you who actually know what a call option is, I'm guessing the NAB-iots that post here may not, time decay accelerates toward expiration. While we don't know when Sirius or XM will essentially "expire", we continue to see extraordinary weakness in the trading of their common stock.

Furthermore, I believe these stocks are trading at bankruptcy levels right now. While each company having piles of debt, and XM having large payments coming due, these companies both have something tremendous. They have the 25 mhz. spectrum. And this is, in my opinion, where the residual value is both companies exist.

The markets are essentially pricing these companies as having failed already, and there are companies on the sidelines who are licking their chops and salivating at the prospect of the FCC rendering them with two slaughtered lambs.

simpsonic, "hey dumbass",

Your proving your ignorance with each additional post. How many cars have xm or Sirius? Most every new car does now... hence your NAB "monopoly" idea is DEBUNKED!

"As of 2005, Sirius receivers are available for various new Audi, BMW, Chrysler, Dodge, Ford, Infiniti, Jaguar, Jeep, Land Rover, Lexus, Lincoln, Mazda, Mercedes-Benz, Mercury, MINI, Mitsubishi, Nissan, Scion, Toyota (except Corolla), Porsche, Volkswagen, and Volvo vehicles, and the service plans on adding availability for portable use. Subaru offers Sirius on the Forester and Impreza. Starting in 2006, all Rolls-Royce vehicles sold in the United States come with a Sirius radio and lifetime subscription as standard equipment. Sirius has an exclusive contract for VW and Audi vehicles from 2007 through 2012, and with Kia from 2008 through 2014, with an optional extension to 2017. Beginning in the 2007 model year, Bentley vehicles will have Sirius as an option, and it will be standard equipment in several models beginning in 2008. Porsche switched to XM Satellite Radio on their vehicles beginning with the 2007 model year."

XM is OEM in:
Acura, Buick, Cadillac, Chevy Trucks, GMC, Honda, Hyundai, Pontiac, Porsche, Saturn, Isuzu, Subaru, Suzuki, Toyota/Lexus/Scion, Lotus and Nissan/Infiniti.

GM is a key strategic XM investor and automotive partner and became the first auto manufacturer offering XM as a factory-installed option on 2002 Cadillac Deville and Seville models.

Current and Upcoming Models Featuring XM:
General Motors:

Buick: LaCrosse, Lucerne, Rainier, Rendezvous, Terraza
Cadillac: CTS / CTS-V, DTS, SRX, STS / STS-V, XLR, Escalade
Chevrolet: Avalanche, Cobalt, Colorado, Corvette, Equinox, HHR, Impala, Malibu / Maxx, Monte Carlo, Silverado, Suburban, Tahoe, TrailBlazer, Uplander
GMC: Canyon, Envoy, Envoy Denali, Sierra / Denali, Yukon / Denali, Yukon XL / Denali
Pontiac: G5, G6, Grand Prix, Montana SV6, Solstice, Torrent, Vibe
Saturn: ION, RELAY, SKY, VUE, AURA, OUTLOOK

Honda: Accord, Accord Hybrid, Civic, Civic Hybrid, CR-V, Element, Odyssey, Pilot, Ridgeline, Odyssey
Acura: RL, TL, TSX, MDX, RDX
Toyota: 4Runner, Avalon, Camry, Camry Hybrid, FJ Cruiser, LandCruiser, Prius, Solara Coupe / Convertible
Nissan: 350Z Coupe, Altima, Armada, Frontier, Maxima, Murano, Pathfinder, Quest, Sentra, Titan, Xterra
Infiniti: G35, FX, Q45, QX56, M35 / 45
Isuzu: Ascender
Harley Davidson: Screaming Eagle Ultra Classic Electra Glide®, Ultra Classic Electra Glide®, Electra Glide® Standard, Electric Glide® Classic, Street Glide™, Road Glide®, Road King®, Road King® Classic, Heritage Softail®, Fat Boy®, Heritage Softail® Classic, Street Bob™, 35th Anniversary Super Glide®
Hummer: H2, H2 SUT, H3
Hyundai: Accent, Elantra, Tiburon, Tuscon
Lexus: ES, GS, GS450h, IS, LS, LS600h, LX, RX
Lotus: Elise
Porsche: Cayenne
Saab: 9-3, 9-5, 9-7X
Scion: xA, xB, tC
Subaru: B9 Tribeca, Outback, Legacy
Suzuki: Grand Vitara, XL-7, SX-4

A "merge" will not be good for the satradio industry, a "merge" will not be good for consumers. Direct competition between xm and sirius has more than proven it's worth in many ways for consumers. hence your "merge will help competition" idea is DEBUNKED too!

your batting 100% simpsonic, do you too enjoy being one of Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin's blind, ignorant, bitches?

Concerned American?,

Glad to see you too are still insisting on proving your still confused. The FCC is doing nothing to "accelerated the demise of both companies" Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin through his "merge" scheme has "accelerated the demise of both companies".

Both Sirius and xm have "large payments coming due", not just xm.

Yet again "your opinion" is confused since that 25 mhz. spectrum is the public's radio spectrum the FCC just lets Sirius and xm us it. There is no residual value, since Sirius and xm can't sell off parts of "their spectrum". DEBUNKED!

Again if your dreaming about the demise of the satradio industry you should be thinking who is the true ring leader Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin and his cash grab scheme.

Concerned American?, sit back and learn the truth, instead of trying desperately to blame the FCC for doing their JOB. The situation Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin has driven the satradio industry into is not the FCC's fault.

The only thing consumers can do now is tell XM to stop this "merge" and tell Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin to take a hike.... For the good of consumers, for the good of the satradio industry.

Corporate Mailing Address:
XM Programming Center and Corporate Headquarters
1500 Eckington Place, NE
Washington, DC 20002

Corporate Phone Numbers:
Phone: 202-380-4000
Fax: 202-380-4500
Listener Care: 800-XM-RADIO (800-967-2346)

Debunked my ass! Go out on the street and ask every car you see if they have an fm radio or sirius / xm in their car.

Thanks for pointing out the obvious. You be big loser again!

Funny that you spent the time to list new cars. By the time people start buying cars again. You think Sirius / FM will be the only option!!

Go to bed "Anonymous Coward". You must be old... like AM old.

evolve or die. Think internet DUMBASS!!!!

nighty night ignorance! Don't forget to set your victrola alarm clock.

say no2fm!
say NO to the NAB.
say YES to internet radio and radio competition (on any device).
say YES to the merger! Let them compete with all the other devices and competition out there. (near future and present)

It's about content - Bye Bye FM! Move over if you don't want to compete!!!!

play fair! Stop the NAB's monopoly.

"Furthermore, I believe these stocks are trading at bankruptcy levels right now. While each company having piles of debt, and XM having large payments coming due, these companies both have something tremendous. They have the 25 mhz. spectrum. And this is, in my opinion, where the residual value is both companies exist."

All of which becomes the sole property of the debt holders when/if these companies file a petition.

I believe you are mistaken in you believe there is some 6 Billion dollars in combined equity available to the common shareholders in these two companies.

The Bankruptcy level of both of these companies is ZERO DOLLARS, ZERO CENTS.

But hey.. They might throw you some warrants to buy the stock at the next IPO. At market price that is.

And so it goes,
PCSTEL

Debra Borchardt doesn't know shit from apple butter.

simpsonic,

Nice that you prove your class matches your ignorance. OEM in cars since the 2002 model year (available for purchase in 2001) are "new cars"?

The NAB is not a "monopoly" however IF Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin's scheme is allowed to progress the satradio industry WILL be a "monopoly" at least for a short time till the entire satradio industry then implodes.

It's your option however listening and learning the TRUTH is much better than continuing blaming the wrong parties in this "merge" issue which it the total fault of Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin and you simpsonic though your ignorance are one of Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin bitches.

Blind ignorance Dispatched and DEBUNKED

All you negative NAB folks out there. All the negative posts!! Now i have a high school GED education, but basic math tells me these guys in the satellite radio business are doing alright. Feel free to correct me, slam me whatever you like , i've lost respect for you clowns along time ago anyway. SIRIUS shares outstanding, 1,500,000,000 x 2.54 approx. = 3,810,000,000. XM shares outstanding, 319,000,000 x 10.87 approx = 3,369,700,000. For a total of 7,179,700,000 shares outstanding. Now, 12.95 a month , with roughly 17,000,000 subs (and growing) comes to 220,150,000 a month x 12, comes to annually approx 2,641,800,000 thats not including internet, product sales etc etc. I know i'm leaving myself wide open for alot of criticism, remember high school GED. Have at me negative losing NAB, also some of you more intelligent folks tell me if i'm far off. This is in a bad economy and with all the corruption we have in this government. Mel don't quit!!!!! Charles M Scott

Speaking of class and ignorance ANONYMOUS DUMBASS, when the F*&% did I say anything about new cars??

I hope your nurse gets your meds!

The Merge will happen. Long live competition!

Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin needs to go! He is well into the process of killing another form of radio.

Nate, come on what do you say Monday morning call a press conference and call the whole "merge" aka Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin's killing off of xm off. You could easily take back major market share just being the satradio that is pro-consumer, instead of Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin's of screw the customer band of radio.

"Satellite radio seemed so cool a few years ago, but where are we now? XM and Sirius are still growing subscriber counts through carmaker installations but faltering on the retail front. Things are even worse overseas, where WORLDSPACE (Nasdaq: WRSP) recently got its creditors to agree to the deferral of debt payments. That rarely ends well."

The only thing consumers can do now is tell XM to stop this "merge" and tell Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin to take a hike.... For the good of consumers, for the good of the satradio industry.

Corporate Mailing Address:
XM Programming Center and Corporate Headquarters
1500 Eckington Place, NE
Washington, DC 20002

Corporate Phone Numbers:
Phone: 202-380-4000
Fax: 202-380-4500
Listener Care: 800-XM-RADIO (800-967-2346)

Theres the intelligence i've been talking about!! SIRIUS rules. They will win!! FM Radio dead, HD real bad, doesn't make any sense. Thanks Guys, SIRIUS, XM are really in your heads. Charles M Scott

More blind ignorance and lack of class from simpsonic.....

Typical of being one of Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin bitches. Failure to understand and see the positives with the current freedom to choose a satardio company is so typical of a blind ignorant satradio fanboy who is one of Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin bitches.

It's your option, however listening and learning the TRUTH is much better than continuing to prove your rude, crude and ignorant.

simpsonic's blind ignorance Dispatched and DEBUNKED yet again.

Nice way to start a conversation, your a real people person aren't you charles scott?

"Feel free to correct me, slam me whatever you like , i've lost respect for you clowns along time ago anyway. "

WHOA your misled AND your GED is failing you.
"This is in a bad economy and with all the corruption we have in this government. "

So blame the economy for Sirius and xm never making a dime since 2001/2002 when they started doing business? It is not "corruption" in the gov which is more than proving poor management and a poor business plan has doomed satradio from the start. Now you add the greed and arrogance of Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin and his scheme of "merge" and you get the current sad state of the satradio business.

Neither company has ever posted a profit and each has over $1 billion in debt

" but basic math tells me these guys in the satellite radio business are doing alright." ahhhh NO! they are not doing alright..... back to class

Hey coward show your real name, there in your head, thank you SIRIUS Rules
,

Hey coward the numbers baffled you didn't they?? There in your head, SIRIUS rules charles scott

Does anyone else want to ban the use of the phrase "sat rad fan boys" and similar terms? It just sounds gay.

Bill Cooke,

Ban the use of a descriptive word? Na not unless we can also ban you for being homophobic.

charles scott,

how old are you? not only are you confused but you seem to be playing games by posting "SIRIUS rules" Are you trying to point out you think xm doesn't? childish... and NO your GED mentality is the one thats getting "numbers baffled"

Take some time to listen and learn the facts.

"Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt"
-Mark Twain

More blind ignorance and lack of class from the NAB coalition

Typical of being one of Ronald McDonald Fehr's bitches. Failure to understand and see the positives without the NAB and its heathens is so typical of a blind ignorant NAB fanboy who is one of Ronald McDonald Fehr's bitches.
It's your option, however listening and learning the TRUTH is much better than continuing to prove your rude, crude and ignorant.

The only thing consumers can do now is tell Ronald McDonald Fehr to eat a dick.... For the good of consumers, for the good of the satradio industry. and for worse for our friend NAB fanboy!

NAB fan boy's blind ignorance Dispatched and DEBUNKED yet again.

right back at ya! - - ANONYMOUS DUMBASS! so typical - is your stupid remarks.

...and more blind ignorance and lack of class from "ANONYMOUS COWARD" - COWARD!

Typical NAB bitch!

Success in understand is understanding that we do not have current freedom to choose a satradio company. They are broke! ...and need to merge - so we CAN have a choice! (only you would go buy a XM and Siri device in the past 18 months).

LONG LIVE COMPETITION. MERGE NOW!

It is my option? (THANK YOU AGAIN, DUMBASS) I get to listen and learn the TRUTH? Your Truth is so far up your NAB ass you can't see the TRUTH yourself.

I hope you can evolve. You have that option. But if you must continue to suck from the depths of hell - I guess that's your option, as well.

...and thank you for calling me rude. You really hurt my feelings?! Your mom has called me worse.

LONG LIVE satRadio! MERGE or DIE. NO2FM! NO to the NAB! YES to Competition! Let them merger or kill SatRad forever!

coward is that the best you can do quote from a dead guy!! Give me your name and a quote that makes sense thank you Charles Scott

Thanks Levi..... supremely intelligent and appreciated post. One thing I might add, that you lightly brushed on. Sirius's retail are almost all cash. Unlike OEM, there's no cut to a third party.

If/when these two unite, time to go back and rework some contracts IMHO.

Lastly, I use to make fun of "BACKSEAT VIDEO" ... which Mel touted as the new white bread. Working in the auto industry, I can now see where video may be just that now white bread as mfg's are working hard to ramp up the interiors and options in traditionally lower priced vehicles to off-set truck sales. Soon you will have leather, sunroof, satrad, video, and heated seats in a Colbalt. IMHO.

My take: You may see video built into a headrest of a Focus by 2011. This leave XM screwed without the merger... if this is the calling card I'm starting to think it may be.

I'm still wondering can/will Siri break into the GM contract?

Could XM's levels have fallen last November?

May GM and others want BACKSEAT VIDEO! ... enough to bounce XM?

Plowboy,

Why can't xm push video down their system too? Sirius isn't the only technology with that hardware to do so. "XM (IS NOT AT ALL) screwed without the merger" just because Sirius has a head start on backseat video. On the contrary XM is completely screwed by Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin "merge" scheme, as are customers and the satradio industry. XM could use it's ties to DirecTV, all XM would have to do is pull the pin and XM would have backseat video too. Remember XM is pushing some data for Onstar on their system too.

Of course most contracts will need to be reworked, but this time neither satradio company has money to keep or sign additional talent and content, we've already seen talent and content start to depart satradio for better more lucrative pastures. IF the "merge" scheme is approved some talent and content won't want to be part of a monopoly with no direct competition, all while knowing soon after Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin's scheme will have permanently damage if not destroyed the entire satradio industry.

GM being a major investor in XM will not allow Sirius to "break in" or bounce XM.
http://www.gm.com/shop/services/xmradio/

simpsonic, charles m scott, and now NAB SUCKS

Congratulations, glad to see you three are in a contest for who can post the most blind and ignorant post on Orbitcast for the day. You three should be very proud. Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin counts on personal ignorance like you guys have proven to push his "merge" scheme though.

Rude, Crude, blind, ignorant, and DEBUNKED

Wake up folks. Just look at whats happening to xm, being Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin bitch is not at all healthy.

The only thing consumers can do now is tell XM to stop this "merge" and tell Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin to take a hike.... For the good of consumers, for the good of the satradio industry.

Corporate Mailing Address:
XM Programming Center and Corporate Headquarters
1500 Eckington Place, NE
Washington, DC 20002

Corporate Phone Numbers:
Phone: 202-380-4000
Fax: 202-380-4500
Listener Care: 800-XM-RADIO (800-967-2346)

XM is screwed without the merger. Go Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin's scheme!

Please help save competition! MERGE.

blind and ignorant post on Orbitcast for the day...

"The only thing consumers can do now is tell XM to stop this "merge" and tell Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin to take a hike.... For the good of consumers, for the good of the satradio industry."

Consumers want the merge! You are just an idiot.
Consumers want the merge! You are just an idiot.
Consumers want the merge! You are just an idiot.
Consumers want the merge! You are just an idiot.
Consumers want the merge! You are just an idiot.

Go back to bed and try again.

Don't forget about us Anonymous Coward.

The consumers. We want the merge. The NAB doesn't want the merge.

You are an idiot, Anonymous Coward.

simpsonic,

Tell us why you claim "XM is screwed without the merger".

Tell us why you claim a "merge" can "help save competiton!" by the "merge" taking away consumer choice AND direct competition?

Tell us why you are cheering for Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin's scheme?

Mel Karmazin is the number two poster boy for everything Americans hate about radio.
http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/index.php/archives/2007/04/13/how-did-satellite-radio-become-uncool/

What Happens To XM (XMSR) And Sirius (SIRI) After A Merger? Not Much, And That's A Problem
http://www.alleyinsider.com/2008/6/xm_sirius_subscriber_growth_really_is_slowing_reason_to_worry_
Since Q2 2007 XM is climbing and Sirius is dropping like a dead fish. AKA ever since the "merge" MONOPOLY was announced.

Is Mel Sirius? Sirius is turning into a scary place.
http://www.rhino.com/rzine/storykeeper.lasso?storyID=311
"Sirius acquired an incredible amount of good will by adding Howard.
Unfortunately, they added Mel and he fucked it all up."

Mel Karmazin Enrages Congress, May Have Defeated XM-Sirius Merger
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/brent-budowsky/mel-karmazin-enrages-cong_b_42881.html

Yeah! Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin bitches keep cheerleading for the problem, keep cheerleading for anti-consumer scheme's.

Mr Nate Davis. PLEASE 1st thing on Monday morning call a press conference and drop Melvin and his scheme and save XM Radio.

simpsonic,

Who knew that with each post you could prove your ignorance again and again.

"Consumers want the merge!" REALLY? Prove it.

Consumers gain NOTHING by the freedom of choice in satradio being taken away. Consumers gain NOTHING by talent and content in satradio being lessened.
Consumers gain NOTHING by satradio raising it's price.

To think the blind, ignorant, are so upset with the quality and freedom we currently know and love XM and Sirius for. But then again these three have never posted the truth or facts ever thats not a possibility when your Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin bitches.

simpsonic, charles m scott, and now NAB SUCKS,

Thats right boys..... "DUMBASS's", "idiot's" All one has to do is look for the truth and read the facts. Your personal dreams matter NOT. Again suggest you too listen and learn instead of continuing to prove yourselves as Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin blind ignorant bitches

DEBUNKED yet again.

The truth is ... you are wrong.

by the way - you started the name calling COWARD.

"Your boycott is laughable, your blame of the NAB for satradio's current problems is IDIOTIC."

yep - DUMBASS! DEBUNKED.

keep it coming... NAB BITCH!!!

ANONYMOUS COWARD IS NOW KNOW as DUMBASS!

Please call him by name.

simpsonic,

Keep on topic, you have been asked to prove your thread related statements, yet instead you insist on proving your ignorance and lack of class. There is nothing gained by playing your childish games of proving your ignorance again and again. Many links have been posted which should show you the factual side of the story. it's again certainly your choice to listen and learn or continue proving the ignorance which is simpsonic.

Q-10 - 2007 Annual:

GM’s exclusivity obligations will discontinue if, by November 2007 and at two-year intervals thereafter, we fail to achieve and maintain specified minimum market share levels in the satellite digital radio service industry. We believe we were exceeding the minimum levels at December 31, 2007.

" We Believe?" ..... I thnk that is worthy of some checking.

BOYS! .... Settle down! ...NOW!... .. Don't make me come back there damnit!!!!!

Plowboy,
thanks for the quote from the 2007 Annual (XM right?) thats a interesting part to consider. However if both XM (who GM is heavily invested in, and relies on for some Onstar function) are flat lining would you give up on the favorite to go to the other flat liner? I somehow still think XM is better off in the big picture, even though Sirius has been gaining at least up till Q2 2007. :)

http://www.alleyinsider.com/2008/6/xm_sirius_subscriber_growth_really_is_slowing_reason_to_worry_

NAB days are likely limited regardless of merger outcome.

NO LONGER NEEDED
As terrestrial radio
Broadcasters are lamo

It's not about ditribution. It's ALL about content!

CONTENT delivery is evolving faster than shit. CONTENT is KING!

Terrestrial radio has no content and want to limit competition so they don't have to improve content!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! DEBUNKED NAB-iots.

Plowboy,

Guess what I'm getting at is XM isn't out of the running yet. Hugh "I have no idea what I'm doing" Panero is gone, Nate Davis is slowly cleaning up Hugh's mess and turning the tide, however now he has to also fight off Melvin Alan "Mel the media industry destroyer" Karmazin's greed, arrogance and misinformation. Which is why what IMO is best for the entire satradio industry is to stop the "merge" completely letting XM continue to improve itself and Mel can continue to hack away at Sirius.

Plowboy said:
>>>why do you quote gross when not only doesn't "gross" pay the bills, and, in fact, XM's net retail was unbelievably negative.

Simple -- the part you CONTINUE to ignore... as the churn of both companies equal out (which they are) and the overall subscriber counts equal out (which they may)... what happens then? Which company will then have higher growth? The company with higher overall GROSS or the company with less? Think about that for awhile, then get back to me.

-

Plowboy said:
>>>XM started one year before Siri and can't hold their lead.

Sirius started a little less than a year after XM -- regardless, it is irrelevant. Who cares where and when they started. All that matters is what is happening now.

XM has higher liquidity... FACT.
XM had lower cash burn in Q1... FACT
XM has lower CapEx needs over the next 4 years... FACT
Without the merger, given current cash flow needs, XM will need less new financing than Sirius... FACT
Without the merger, BOTH will need to re-finance similar amounts of debt in 2009... FACT

-

Uh Oh said:
>>>I never spoke about financials. XM is losing the subscriber battle and has already started to tap their emergency lines of credit.
>>>Both companies are in trouble but one is in greater peril than than the other.

I've been speaking from a financials standpoint all along. The subscriber "battle" is closer than you think -- but that is not what is important. What is important is what is going on from a cashflow and liquidity standpoint.

BTW, XM's credit facilities are not for "emergencies"... I suggest you go read the financials some time. XM has intended on using them at one time or another all along -- and always has. Never have they been described as "for emergecies" only.

Yes, I agree that BOTH companies are in "peril". This is the reason I sold my Sirius stock at $7 and sold all but a small portion of my XM when it was between $20 and $25. I hold a small amount now to ride the merger wave -- but am no longer convinced in EITHER of their business models. Sirius is in as bad a shape as XM... probably worse. Their cashflow is much worse than XM's -- but most importantly, without the merger... Sirius' CapEx needs are staggering. Their need for new financing makes them in a more dire position than XM.

-

Uh oh said:
"It's bankruptcy PROTECTION... not, they'rs going "out of business"... "

huh?

Learn the difference between Chapter 7 and Chapter 11 bankruptcy... one is a liquidation for "going out of business"; the other is protection to remain in business.

Plowboy said:
>>>I'm still wondering can/will Siri break into the GM contract? Could XM's levels have fallen last November?

Another point you continue to ignore... GM has a significant equity investment in XM. They have a seat on XM's Board... maintaining a certain amount of control over the company. Furthermore, GM's current run rate in amounts earned from XM is over $300 million annually -- and gowing with each quarter.

Do you know what happens if GM breaks the XM contract? Bye bye money. That's what.

If GM breaks the contract to install Sirius, the XM contract is immediately negotiatable. Remember, XM pays a guarantee to GM to install XM radios; they pay a subsidy on the radio; they pay bounty on the install; they pay a bounty on car buyer becoming a sub; they pay a 50% revenue share with GM from those subs. All of that becomes negotiateable.

Do you really believe that Sirius is going to match what XM is paying GM now? Do you really believe that Sirius can pay GM the difference of what they're going to lose from the XM portion of the deal? NO and NO.

So tell me, with GM having an equity investment (over $200 million) in XM; a seat on their Board; and (currently) earning $300 million annually via XM installs... why in the world would GM mess with this? You really think they're going to give this up just to install Sirius? XM is GM's bitch... I mean cash cow.

As I've told in the past... I can only pray that GM voids the XM contract. It would be the greatest thing to happen to XM. It would make them a "buy" in my book.

-

Coward.... I agree with the basis of your hypothesis. I don't agree with Homer usually, and this evening is delightfully no exception. Wouldda shouldda coulda Homer. Gross means nothing without hope and conditions.Also My Dear Homer... the CAP EX you refer to assumes that birds can't be leased... they can.

Here's the reason why a merger will happen.

1. Both are dying.
2. XM has OEM content.
3. Sirius has programming and management with brains.
4. BACKSEAT VIDEO & Nav. ... a good mix.
5. Content, marketing, cs, and equipment prices cut in 1/2.
6. Ad revenue virtually doubles overnight.
7. Cash flow to saturate OEM.

If anyone thinks the economy of scale doesn't apply, or that you have a single stronger stand alone company without a merger, well.... then you're just fucking nuts and have never run a business.... and I have. Big ones.

Homer will tell you.... I saw the merger in Jan. 06. They were both headed for the wall even then. If anyone is interested look at XM's annual losses for the last 6 years. They have only gone up, and remain up. XM is literally done without a merger.

Saints be praised.... I agree with Homer.

Homer... you are correct on the logistics of GM and XM ... however.... never, never underestimate my Uncle Mel. GM wants backseat video IMHO.... and the ability to sell both units. Guys like me write to Rick on a regular basis explaining that I won't buy their cars without Sirius. Drip, drip, drip .. the water breaks the stone.

IF the merger isn't done ( a 15% chance ) I will wager you again that Sirius has all or part of the GM contract before 2010.

Plowboy said:
>>>XM is literally done without a merger.

And so is Sirius.

-----

P.S. - Leasebacks can't be done until the satellite is in orbit and functioning healthily. And unfortunately for Sirius, their satellite(s) cannot be launched until each one is paid for in full -- the satellite, the launch vehicle and launch/in-orbit insurance must all be paid off first, before they will be launched.

So to do so, they will need to secure NEW financing first, then construction/launch the satellites -- then do a leaseback, if necessary. The point is that they will need new financing first... in a time where financing is tight right now...

-

Plowboy said:
>>>IF the merger isn't done ( a 15% chance ) I will wager you again that Sirius has all or part of the GM contract before 2010.

By 2010, the run-rate on what GM earns from the XM contract will be over $500 million annually. So you think that GM will give up on "easy money" from XM -- just to get Sirius?

P.S. - XM hasn't even put their Hierarchical Modulation to use yet... XM could very easily put video on it for GM, if it came down to it. Yes, I will take this bet. Though I won't be around XM anymore then -- but you will be very surprised.

-

The world is going to split in half at midnight I am afeared.

I agree with the Homer in totality.

So Homer, now that we're no longer arch enemies (for the evening) , what is your % for the merger.

Concerned American?,

Are your hell-bent on proving you are confused?

Do you know what the NAB is? Do you know what they do? Just because you feel they are the one's blocking your desire for a "merge" MONOPOLY in satradio doesn't make you correct.

Like the FCC and Kevin Martin doing his JOB, the NAB is doing their JOB.
"The National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) is a trade association that promotes and protects the interests of free, local radio and television broadcasters throughout the United States. There are more than 15,000 local radio and television stations in the U.S., serving their communities through public service, local news, entertaining programming and vital community information – such as emergency warnings, traffic information and severe weather alerts. NAB advocates on behalf of these stations before Congress, the Federal Communications Commission and the general public."

Wow look who is involved with the NAB...
http://www.nab.org/AM/Template.cfm?Section=Press_Releases1&TEMPLATE=/CM/ContentDisplay.cfm&CONTENTID=2652

Did you know Sirius was a member of the NAB? Sirius was actually a member when Karmazin first joined the company in November, 2004.

@ the Dolt: "Are your hell-bent on proving you are confused?"

No, you're hell bent on being stupid. THE MERGER IS ALREADY APPROVED. The FCC will not go against the DOJ ruling, and everyone knows it. The only thing remaining is what conditions the FCC will impose. That's all.

So you lose. The "Merge monopoly" you've spent the better part of the month masturbating about is already done.

This is the last time I am responding to you a little turd like you. When Ryan wants to restore the quality of his site, I'll be back. It's his to lose. If you had any brains or decency, you would just STFU and crawl back under the rock you came from.

Have a nice day, putz.

Plowboy,

Your letters to Rick? Why not just go for a SiriusConnect and call your GM OEM headunit Sirius good? (Not that any OEM headunits are as good as aftermarket)

Show me consumers who want the merger!? Are you for real? ...or do you want to just tell everyone that you're so "smart". LISTEN and LEARN! You skipped class - I guess??

Now - let's review... Dumbass!

Comments from above:

"Satelite radio fans need this merger to survive or their will be no choice but to listen to terrestrial Radio"

Posted by: mitchman79k (not Anonymous!)

which, you responded - SHUT THE F*CK UP!!! (bravo!)

...and Cramer is full of sh*t (oh my! such anger!!)

oh, and here is someone else that I think supports the merger...

"As for XM, in the words of Eazy-E: "A bitch is a bitch."

Posted by: Gaston LeClerque

let's see...

you then said, "Direct competition is needed between xm and sirius."

yeah - we tried that! But thanks for such a "smart" idea.

then we had...

blah, blah, Bankruptcy... XM is no worse off then Siri?

- - yep, true, they both are broke!

then we had...

Long live Cramer and the DOJ.

Posted by: KenB-Ohio (look another person who has a name! and doesn't hide - COWARD!)

then we had..

"If the merger is delayed or denied, then XM and SIRIUS should do an 'END AROUND(business partnership)' on the FCC(Federalized Criminal Cartel).

KEVIN MARTIN NEEDS TO BE PROSECUTED."

firefox249

then.. look another supporter!

"start an on air campaign (yesterday) communicating to their listeners the value of the merger.."

Plowboy (I liked the multiple postings! You really want it right?)

oh good comeback - DAMBASS COWARD -

"Kevin and the FCC are doing their JOBS"

yeah... right?

oh, and here's a great comeback by you...

"Enough" is right "enough" of xm being Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin bitch.

hmmm, That's right - you are so smart, like XM can't walk away from the deal?? - - DUMBASS COWARD - -

then you beg for help... (and expose email addresses)
can I have your NAME - COWARD - ??

"Come on Mr. Davis don't let US down"

US!? US?! who the hell is US??? right?

then there was...

"Go get your paycheck from the NAB"

Posted by: j.dumanator

oh and don't forget...

"If Satellite goes under I for one will never listen to Testicular again" (Sounds like a NO2FM supporter! Don't you think??)

Posted by: Greyfurgang

then..

"I'd rather see the dog go bye bye."

Posted by: xmguy (well, here's an XM supporter that would love to see something change. Damn right! me too!)

sidebar...

Let US point out the great keyboard skills...

¿¿¿¿¿¿¿

naiveté was 2nd, great accent!

then we had...

"When he gets back there better be only one company left.."

Posted by: Anonymous Coward (Was that you?? couldn't tell)

then..

Let Sirius die a very slow high contract death.
Posted by: scott

sounds like more support??

then...

you called me IDIOTIC and said I was "proving your ignorance" and listed every NEW car when I was talking about the cars on the road today! - DUMBASS.

then there was... you saying.

"sit back and learn the truth, instead of trying desperately to blame the FCC for doing their JOB. The situation Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin has driven the satradio industry into is not the FCC's fault."

after all these months - and you say it's not the FCC fault. (Sure, you are so right - they are doing their job!)

DUMBASS - again!

let's see....

Mel don't quit!!!!!

Posted by: charles scott

oh, and there you go again...

blind ignorance, lack of class, listening, learning the TRUTH

all great - but I think YOU are not listening, learning, and have the lack of class.

XM and Sirius are dead.

then...

You call Bill Cooke homophobic! Way to Man up - COWARD.

then.. you say... what??

"Tell us why you claim a "merge" can "help save competiton!" by the "merge" taking away consumer choice AND direct competition?"

Speaking of listening and learning, ask the DOJ! DUMBASS!

DOJ says it won't! But... you are smarter then them, right?

"Consumers want the merge!" REALLY? Prove it.

SEE ABOVE - DUMBASS!

now for the folks who think XM is going out of business...

"I hate to say it but not even a merger will save these companies as they will still ultimately go out of business anyway."

LAPTOP GAMER

ok, I won't list everyone....

So, Listen and Learn. ANONYMOUS "DUMBASS" COWARD

Think Internet. Satellite Radio is DEAD, and the Merger is the only way to increase competition.

fool.

Max,

Of course your here to add your un-educated 2 cents, followed up with no class, and crudity only a junior high school student appreciates. No reason to be upset, You insisted on posting ignorance which when called on couldn't backup, and are doing it still.

The "merger" is NOT already approved, IF it was this wouldn't be a topic, and you wouldn't still be desperate and upset at those who are not part of the problem.

IF the "merge" scheme goes through I'm not the only one who is going to "lose". Every satradio customer is going to lose the freedom of choice in satradio companies. Every satradio customer is going to lose talent and content which we currently have. Every satradio customer is going to lose all the positives direct competition brings. Every satradio customer is going to gain higher prices.

Glad you decided it's best for you to go away and zip it, you've already proven to everyone just how uneducated Max is. You will be better off and Oribitcast will be much better off. Ryan's Orbitcast is a quality site, always has been, and now with your written word that your leaving, always will continue to be a quality site.

you will not be missed Max/Maxm

"This is the last time I am responding to you......When Ryan wants to restore the quality of his site, I'll be back. It's his to lose."
Posted by: Max | June 14, 2008 9:19 PM

going out of business sale! EVERYTHING MUST GO!

XM (failing) + Sirius (failing) = stronger competition!

now about the.. show me consumers who want the merger!? Are you for real? ...or do you want to just tell everyone that you're so "smart". LISTEN and LEARN! You skipped class - I guess??

Now - let's review... Dumbass!

Comments from above:

"Satelite radio fans need this merger to survive or their will be no choice but to listen to terrestrial Radio"

Posted by: mitchman79k (not Anonymous!)

which, you responded - SHUT THE F*CK UP!!! (bravo!)

...and Cramer is full of sh*t (oh my! such anger!!)

oh, and here is someone else that I think supports the merger...

"As for XM, in the words of Eazy-E: "A bitch is a bitch."

Posted by: Gaston LeClerque

let's see...

you then said, "Direct competition is needed between xm and sirius."

yeah - we tried that! But thanks for such a "smart" idea.

then we had...

blah, blah, Bankruptcy... XM is no worse off then Siri?

- - yep, true, they both are broke!

then we had...

Long live Cramer and the DOJ.

Posted by: KenB-Ohio (look another person who has a name! and doesn't hide - COWARD!)

then we had..

"If the merger is delayed or denied, then XM and SIRIUS should do an 'END AROUND(business partnership)' on the FCC(Federalized Criminal Cartel).

KEVIN MARTIN NEEDS TO BE PROSECUTED."

firefox249

then.. look another supporter!

"start an on air campaign (yesterday) communicating to their listeners the value of the merger.."

Plowboy (I liked the multiple postings! You really want it right?)

oh good comeback - DAMBASS COWARD -

"Kevin and the FCC are doing their JOBS"

yeah... right?

oh, and here's a great comeback by you...

"Enough" is right "enough" of xm being Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin bitch.

hmmm, That's right - you are so smart, like XM can't walk away from the deal?? - - DUMBASS COWARD - -

then you beg for help... (and expose email addresses)
can I have your NAME - COWARD - ??

"Come on Mr. Davis don't let US down"

US!? US?! who the hell is US??? right?

then there was...

"Go get your paycheck from the NAB"

Posted by: j.dumanator

oh and don't forget...

"If Satellite goes under I for one will never listen to Testicular again" (Sounds like a NO2FM supporter! Don't you think??)

Posted by: Greyfurgang

then..

"I'd rather see the dog go bye bye."

Posted by: xmguy (well, here's an XM supporter that would love to see something change. Damn right! me too!)

sidebar...

Let US point out the great keyboard skills...

¿¿¿¿¿¿¿

naiveté was 2nd, great accent!

then we had...

"When he gets back there better be only one company left.."

Posted by: Anonymous Coward (Was that you?? couldn't tell)

then..

Let Sirius die a very slow high contract death.
Posted by: scott

sounds like more support??

then...

you called me IDIOTIC and said I was "proving your ignorance" and listed every NEW car when I was talking about the cars on the road today! - DUMBASS.

then there was... you saying.

"sit back and learn the truth, instead of trying desperately to blame the FCC for doing their JOB. The situation Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin has driven the satradio industry into is not the FCC's fault."

after all these months - and you say it's not the FCC fault. (Sure, you are so right - they are doing their job!)

DUMBASS - again!

let's see....

Mel don't quit!!!!!

Posted by: charles scott

oh, and there you go again...

blind ignorance, lack of class, listening, learning the TRUTH

all great - but I think YOU are not listening, learning, and have the lack of class.

XM and Sirius are dead.

then...

You call Bill Cooke homophobic! Way to Man up - COWARD.

then.. you say... what??

"Tell us why you claim a "merge" can "help save competiton!" by the "merge" taking away consumer choice AND direct competition?"

Speaking of listening and learning, ask the DOJ! DUMBASS!

DOJ says it won't! But... you are smarter then them, right?

"Consumers want the merge!" REALLY? Prove it.

SEE ABOVE - DUMBASS!

now for the folks who think XM is going out of business...

"I hate to say it but not even a merger will save these companies as they will still ultimately go out of business anyway."

LAPTOP GAMER

ok, I won't list everyone....

So, Listen and Learn. ANONYMOUS "DUMBASS" COWARD

Think Internet. Satellite Radio is DEAD, and the Merger is the only way to increase competition.

fool.

Now, what topic were you speaking about?

The first 5 at the top? or the one that YOU posted.

"I have a feeling there are 3 people writing 100% of the posts on this sites. It's the same crap over and and over again!

SHUT THE F*CK UP!!!"

stop feeding the troll. He's a stupid POS.

simpsonic,

like with everything else you have no clue. Before posting what you think I said you better be 100% positive. Better yet you should cut your BS games and stay on topic. Your last post yet again proves your ignorant and cannot backup any of your posts.

Take it however you chose:
IF you want to try and post some well thought out, educated ideas which have anything truthful and factual to back them up or base them on great, but your childish games need to stop. Just look over this thread and see your posts again, nothing to be proud of, nothing any value, nothing which adds anything to orbitcast, nothing which adds anything to logical, factual, grown-up discussion. No one here post for anyone but them self aka you are not a "we". As Plowboy suggested it needs to stop, stay on topic and off your personal thoughts of others.

And Max is a liar... Who wouldn't have guessed that...

"stop feeding the troll. He's a stupid POS."
Posted by: Max | June 14, 2008 10:10 PM

Coward... I write to Rick because I want GM to use Sirius also. Why should I have to rig something up?

Speaking of XM ... 2003 lost 604 million, 2004 lost 651 million, 2005 lost 675 million, 2006 lost 731 million, 2007 lost 682 million, and will 550 -600 million +/- annualized in 2008.

That is quite a trend Gentlemen... at this rate XM should be BE about 2019 when it's 12 Billion in debt.

FCC ... are you listening? .... want competition for Terrad.... want the little people out in BFE to have access to satellite entertainment and education? .... You'd better merge quickly and quit worrying about your Career Mr. Martin.

THAT'S ENOUGH BOYS .. Stop it right now ..... Simpsonic, Max, Coward .... Go to your room and don't come out until I tell you!

Plowboy said:
>>>So Homer, now that we're no longer arch enemies (for the evening) , what is your % for the merger.

I never thought of you as an "enemy" -- we just had differing opinions at the time, that is all.

What % for the merger? Back before the announcement of the merger... I was against the merger and didn't believe that XM would even attempt it, especially because I didn't believe that they'd get it passed through the FCC. This is why I challened you so vehemently about it. But when they announced the merger, I listened to their rationale for it and watched the reactions come in from the various government types. After doing this -- while I'm personally still against the merger as a subscriber and person working in radio -- I believed in their rationale for it. As a shareholder knowing more now about each companies finances... I'm for the merger. So I'm personally mixed on what I want.

But none of this matters... as I believe that the chances of the merger going through now are 100%, yes. It's not a matter of yes or no, it is a matter of how onerous the conditions for the license transfer will be.

I stated on Yahoo, back in January 2007 before they announced the merger, that if a merger attempt would take place -- that it would eventually get through the DOJ, however it would have a hard time getting through the FCC. I also stated that I believe that many are underestimating the power and will of the NAB to try and stop it; that it would be a major distraction to the companies while they waited; and that it would take at least 12-18 months for approval. So far, all of this has come true. But my point here is not to brag -- but rather point out what I was WRONG about and am willing to admit it. Back then I didn't believe that it would get through the FCC -- I now believe that it will. As I said, after I heard the companies position and reasoning for the merger, I believed it. And after seeing the reactions come in -- I believe it will go through. Which is why I bought back some XM stock, to play the merger.

So yes, I 100% believe that the merger will go through. Conditions will be a factor, but I don't think that they will be as onerous as some believe -- and I also think that the companies are willing to take whatever conditions are mandated anyhow... given the current conditions and prospects for the future of DARS.

-

Dumbass! You call yourself educated?

>>> "...like with everything else you have no clue."

CLUE THIS...

YOU have gone off topic and continue the personal attack, after I just pointed out that others - beside - you. (if you can imagen) want the merger to go through. READ ABOVE!!!

You asked for proof. and I proved it. DUMBASS!!! DEBUNKED.

now THAT is staying on topic!

>>> "Before posting what you think I said you better be 100% positive."

I am 100% positive that I pointed out that you were wrong.

The merger is good for competition. ASK THE DOJ. - DUMBASS!!!

>>> "Better yet you should cut your BS games and stay on topic. "

It's your game... you are fighting yourself.

KEEP IT COMING TROLL! I will eat you for breakfast!

>>> "childish games need to stop."

Tell that to the FCC, NAB and DOJ - you know the educated folk.

>>> "Just look over this thread and see your posts again"

I did. (SEE ABOVE) Do you really want me to post it again??

YOU NEED TO READ and LEARN. They sound like someone who wants the merger!

Yours ...sounds like you don't.

If you want to keep attacking me and not realizing that the TRUTH - that Satellite Radio is DEAD and they need to merge - go right ahead.

THE ONLY WAY!!

(unless you want to fork over the big bucks your making...)

"nothing to be proud of, nothing any value, nothing which adds anything to orbitcast, nothing which adds anything to logical, factual, grown-up discussion."

..and again your crap is dead wrong!

proud of ... merger is good for competition.
value... merger is great for consumers.
orbitcast... one sided. THINK INTERNET.
logical... I think I picked out most of the pro-merger folks on the board, who you said were not here??

factual... THE DOJ has spoken (but, maybe you are smarter than them, right?)

The merger is the only way to keep these companies afloat.

PERSONAL THOUGHT - YOU ARE AN ASS.

ON TOPIC THOUGHT - THE MERGER IS the ONLY way they can survive.

...and "we" as stated above believe in the merger. now YOU grow up! and stay on topic.

THE MERGER IS GOOD FOR COMPETITION! (unless you want them to both go away)

Plowboy said:
>>>Speaking of XM ... 2003 lost 604 million, 2004 lost 651 million, 2005 lost 675 million, 2006 lost 731 million, 2007 lost 682 million, and will 550 -600 million +/- annualized in 2008.

Just to be fair, Sirius... 2003 lost 314 million, 2004 lost 712 million, 2005 lost 862 million, 2006 lost 1,104 million, 2007 lost 565 million, and will easily lose 500-600 million +/- annualized in 2008, as well.

XM has lost $3.34 billion over the last 5 years; while Sirius has lost $3.55 billion in the same time frame.

They are two peas in a pod...

-

simpsonic,

Your posts are unreadable, and your desperate attempt to save face is just making you look worse.

And YES your 100% WRONG, not that it's a surprise.

There will be no direct competition which is so important in the satradio industry IF there is a "merge" So not sure what your idea of competition is.
Do you think AM/FM/HD radio is pushing xm or sirius to be better? nope.
A mp3 player? nope.
Internet radio? (not quite there when it comes to moving vehicles) nope.
Does internet radio have the content and/or talent which is available on xm or Sirius? nope.

So truly what is satradio's competition? Do you think for a second the quality, content and talent we have to chose from on xm and sirius would be there if they were not directly competing with each other? no way.

Also the MAJORITY (which is who the FCC works for) is not satradiofans who post on Orbitcast. 260 million people who listen to AM/FM/HD radio = MAJORITY vrs what? 17 million people who are satradio customers = MINORITY. We might not like it that way but that's the way it is. The MAJORITY OF consumers don't know or care about satradio, but they do care about anticompetitive corporations. Re-posting what others post here as proof of anything really proves nothing AND you learn speak for no-one but yourself.

I could keep pointing out your faults, I could keep pointing out where you are confused and backup my opinions with solid facts and you can responding with by posting insults and personal BS, but orbitcast is not he place for that. If you want try to post your opinion with anything which can explain and back it up, stay on topic.

Anonymous Coward,

AC >>> "Your posts are unreadable, and your desperate attempt to save face is just making you look worse."

Looks like your doing just fine with reading them - and responding.

AC >>> "And YES your 100% WRONG, not that it's a surprise."

100% - eh?

Without the merger... no Satellite Radio. Done. cooked. all gone, along with this site :)

Now, onto more of your "on topic" BS.

AC >>>> "There will be no direct competition which is so important in the satradio industry IF there is a "merge" So not sure what your idea of competition is."

All I want in my car is an audio input! It's all that everyone needs, bluetooth, whatever.

Stop forcing me to put SIrius/XM vs FM/HD. Put it all in one device!

My iPhone gets traffic, music, stocks, news - - you know, content. (and soon XM)

AC >>> "Do you think AM/FM/HD radio is pushing xm or sirius to be better? nope."

Yes, it has. FM sucks.

AC >>> "A mp3 player? nope. Internet radio? (not quite there when it comes to moving vehicles) nope."

wrong again. new iPhone - 3G.

AC >>> Does internet radio have the content and/or talent which is available on xm or Sirius? nope.

You obviously do not listen to internet radio. Try it sometime, it's the competition. (download itunes) - Try one of the 2284 streams(currently, some are dups, but I think you'll get the idea)

I am sure you'll find something you like. Next door neighbors listen to KCRW (all day).

AC >>> "So truly what is satradio's competition?"

We never listen to the FM in the car. The kids are all over their iPod, or playing Ps2 (watching DVD's). Come to think of it. I don't think I have ever heard my kids say,"can we listen to XM?"

AC >>>" Do you think for a second the quality, content and talent we have to chose from on xm and sirius would be there if they were not directly competing with each other? no way."

As far as quality, I have XM on my receiver and get drops out now and then. My view on competing with each other (Sirius vs. XM, that is...) Not everyone can purchase both devices and an iphone, and keep them all in the car. Can you imagen if cable did that? Plug in one box for Baseball and then plug in my other box for football?? Just Stupid.

AC >>> "Also the MAJORITY (which is who the FCC works for) is not satradiofans who post on Orbitcast. 260 million people who listen to AM/FM/HD radio = MAJORITY vrs what? 17 million people who are satradio customers = MINORITY. We might not like it that way but that's the way it is. The MAJORITY OF consumers don't know or care about satradio, but they do care about anticompetitive corporations. Re-posting what others post here as proof of anything really proves nothing AND you learn speak for no-one but yourself."

This is my point. nobody cares about satRadio. If they don't merge, they will go away.

>>> "I could keep pointing out your faults, I could keep pointing out where you are confused and backup my opinions with solid facts and you can responding with by posting insults and personal BS, but orbitcast is not he place for that. If you want try to post your opinion with anything which can explain and back it up, stay on topic."

Damn! We were doing so well... and then you had to insult me again.

WHAT AN ASS YOU ARE.

Damn it Homer... I was hoping you wouldn't post Sirius's losses.... lol.

Yes, you did state and were correct that the FCC would be the snag.... and I'll tell you what, my mind says 85% and my heart says 20% chances.

I never would have thought it up front, but Kevin Martin is fully exploiting this issue for his own personal benefit. I feel, and have felt, that he has been intentionally dragging this to lengthen his stay. You pointed out that this wasn't correct and now the WSJ and Orbitcast strongly suggest that his motives may involve support or aspirations.

This makes mt crazy as I live in a poor area of Michigan. I see people daily who can't afford Dish and are not offered cable. We get four stations in the FM band. Many drive miles for work and are in their car for 1-2 hours daily. These people are the epitome of why satrad is necessary yet the FCC seems to have forgotten about them, instead, being fixated on what a few and powerful want them to do.

This makes one realize that when the FCC has been taken over by the special interest, what in the hell of our Congress and Representatives. No wonder America is going down the shitter.

One difference of opinion I have with the satrad masses. I believe Adelstein has vision, sees the need of satrad for "the little guy" and is prepared to vote as long as 15% spectrum is allocated for minority programming. I think John will stun people when he votes...and would make a GREAT Chairman. I also think that he is above the political fray as is McDowell and Tate. I am unsure about Copps.

Martin represents all that is wrong with Washington, and the failed Bush administration that he so adeptly represents. A pox upon his house and career.

Did anyone ever stop and question why Mel was paid $32 million dollars , more then the combined pay of upper management of SIRI and XM? If he believe the future value of the company he would have accepted stock, not cash. Yes he has stock, but no where near the value of his pay. This pay package should sent a clear message about the future of the company.

I am not saying he should not make any more, but it looks like they paid him out in head of a Bankrptucy filing, which I believe will happen with a Merger or Not.

I listed to XM and SIRI, not a investor. That decision is based on the Financials pure and simple.

Now I am going to add my two cents. I am an XM subscriber and I do not want to see this merger finalized. As a consumer, I do not see the benefit of a merged company for me. I am happy with the programming I have now and do not want to see the channels I listen to merged or dropped due to redundancy. Much like DirecTV and Dish Network, I feel the two companies do compete directly and, again like DirecTV and Dish Network, should not be allowed to merge. The way I see things is as subdivisions of an entire industry, and satellite radio is one of the subdivisions. I am no NAB, RIAA, C3SR, EIEIO, or any other set of initials employee nor have I received any payment from anyone. If a company is going to fail, then it fails. Happens every day. Who remembers MCI? Pretty big company that was flushed down the toilet due to bad business practices. Enron, same thing and that one hit close to home as I live in Houston. This is not to say either sat company is doing anything illegal. My bottom line is this, I see nothing that will benefit me. I chose XM based on their content and they seemed to have a better future IMO. I do not want my content changed or have to pay possibly more to see the same content as now.

Ranger good point and I agree with you. A merge will not benefit consumers in any way, like a merge will not benefit the satradio industry in any way. One doesn't have to look around too much to see Karmazin has a history of doing this merger stuff and the last two mergers he's done have certainly not been a benefit to consumers nor the radio industry. History more than shows that merge is not the answer to extending the future of a company having problems. In satradio's case the idea of merge has done damage but if allowed to go further will cause much worse damage, which is why it's tough to figure out why those here who claim they are interested in satradio, fans of satradio are hell bent on the industry hurting itself and making anti-consumer moves which Karmazin is famous for. Perhaps is merge currently the only interesting thing to talk about when discussion goes towards satradio industry? I don't think thats the only interesting thing going on with satradio, I also don't think xm should let Karmazin use them, abuse them, kill them and line his pockets with whats left of them. I second the call for Mr Nate Davis to put a end to xm's participation in merge, and even xm's participation in anything that has to do with Karmazin. There is nothing good which comes of working with Karmazin, especially when your companies name is xm.

Ranger,

You assume that there will be satrad without a merger. All agree If satrad exists sans merger only one company will likely survive. Are you willing to take the chance that it is XM? ...You may after all end up with nothing.

First off, we don't know that they'll fail.

Secondly, if one goes "bankrupt", it's not like XM or Sirius would suddenly stop broadcasting. What would happen is the company would go into Chapter 11 and be allowed to reorganize while resolving their debts, all likely without much interruption in service. It would only be a chapter 7 bankruptcy that could hurt the consumers.

So a claim to "force" a merger because you might kill your favorite company if they don't merge because "they won't survive" seems a bit short-sighted. I think the fear of bankruptcy is because it would render that company's common stock worthless. I suspect a lot of the vocal merge proponents are looking for a stock boost from the merged company, and bankruptcy would hurt those stockholders.

Any way that you look at all this we are still 453 days into this merger request and have yet to get the approval of the FCC. Major projects in our country and abroad have been completed in less time than than. Some influential person(s) or group must be really afraid of satrad to have pulled all the stops in order to try to submarine this merger. I feel that we are on the verge of the biggest bang or bust this country has see in some time.

JRT,

Some of what you say is very valid... except....

You think that a re-org makes these companies viable but that is not so. Their debt repayment is maybe 10-15% of their revenue. Even wiping the debt off the books doesn't create the cash flow necessary to make either entities viable.

Yes, in fact, if they go down, they go down.... UNLESS someone buys them.

Now, why would someone buy them if they are not profitable now? Companies buy other companies when they can add volume (business) or cut costs. (Trust me I've done this ) and in this case neither is possible is it? ... Can someone "grow" the business.. no. Can someone cut costs... no again.

Satrad hangs by a literal thread despite the optimism of many.

I'm afraid we may differ, but my opinion is that there is only two ways you will have satrad two years from now. Merger, or one goes bust.

Paul - I doubt any group is seriously trying to sink the proposal. If the FCC were following the letter of its own law, the merger ought to have been rejected and thrown out two days after it was submitted. They are most probably trying to figure out a way to pass it through without starting a landslide of problems from traditional radio over ownership caps. This decision isn't being made in a vacuum: it may have far-reaching implications for years to come. It may also be second-guessed by congress or the courts. I'm still not giving this deal much of a chance at this point.

GDiamond: "I doubt any group is seriously trying to sink the proposal."

Plowboy: Earth to GDiamond, Earth to GDiamond, come in please.

OMG man, are you saying this straight faced?

gdiamond to Plowboy: KNOW YOUR ENEMY!!! NAB, for example, has always been hostile to new technology! No big deal: they are trying to protect their local advertising revenue stream from any intrusion by satellite radio. Some of these other groups are just outfits that smell blood in the water and want to hitch a free ride.

NO we "all" don't agree.

Both companies can easily make changes to business plans, management, priorities, and still be the best radio on radio. The merge is not needed nor wanted as some have been led to believe. It's not out of the realm of possibilities that xm and/or sirius evolves into internet or wimax and lowering their transmission costs, it's not out of the realm of possibilities partnerships with other media sat companies could lower costs. Like a fellow posters pointed out above, Karmazin is not the most honorable, truthful guy. It's very obvious to some the merge is not being done for consumers nor even for the satradio industry.

"All agree If satrad exists sans merger only one company will likely survive."
Posted by: Mark Miller | June 15, 2008 5:34 PM

gdiamond,

Good point about the NAB. They are a known, they are doing what they are suppose to do, protect their membership;

1)free, over-the-air radio station licensed in the United States and its territories.

2)free, over-the-air, full-power VHF/UHF station licensed by the FCC, located in the U. S. and its territories, or if your company is a broadcast television network that owns stations.

3)broadcast equipment manufacturers, law firms, non-profits, financial institutions, content providers, cable channels, telecommunications companies, educational institutions, low-powered TV & radio stations

4)all non-U.S. broadcast TV or radio stations.

Consider the NAB a part of the media industry, it's all part of checks and balances.

"The devil you know is better than the devil you dont"

Kevin Martin has proved himself incompetent and not deserving of his position as head of the FCC. His ass needs to be FIRED YESTERDAY!!! His bumbling is doing NOTHING to the supposed political aspirations he has. We've already had one dunderhead as a leader, no one wants to see another....

Anonymous turd: To think the blind, ignorant, are so upset with the quality and freedom we currently know and love XM and Sirius for. But then again these three have never posted the truth or facts ever thats not a possibility when your Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin bitches."

YOU JUST LOST YOUR REASON FOR YOUR EXISTENCE! BUH BYE!!

Anonymous Coward...

Eat you for lunch... today!

yum! :)

You "threatening" to leave us again poor little Max? Just more self proof that your a cronic Liar.... Grow up child, Your so ignorant you think new of the "merge" gives you a reason to throw your hands in the air like you won something? Keep dreaming, the satradio industry IF the "merge" scheme is approved will not be better off, nor will consumers be better off.

"This is the last time I am responding to you a little turd like you. When Ryan wants to restore the quality of his site, I'll be back. It's his to lose. If you had any brains or decency, you would just STFU and crawl back under the rock you came from.
Have a nice day, putz."
Posted by: Max | June 14, 2008 9:19 PM

Debra Borchardt from thestreet.com is a complete idiot...she just did an article on T Boone Pickens saying his top 5 holding were a bomb...she said SU was down 50% ytd...WRONG..all of her points factual information were way off SU is down like 9% YTD and her other examples of FLR and SLB were crazy wrong...search for "Pickens" on the street to see the video...2 idiots in a park talking nonsense...they said he was down 6% YTD overall, yet they listed his top 5 holdings as down 50% plus...DUH! and did you see the Tim Brown article on MO...he thought Altria had fallen from 80 to 20...not even knowing about the Kraft spinoff...many of the people on thestreet.com are complete morons! can you imagine paying a for premium services?