With Sirius' recent lowered subscriber guidance (and don't forget, XM lowered guidance - twice), and continued evidence that the retail market is continuing to decline; you have to wonder what might be the cause of this "softness" in satellite radio retail sales. One possible cause for this could be Opie & Anthony's move to terrestrial radio.
Before I continue: There's absolutely no doubt that Howard Stern has had a massive influence in moving subscribers to Sirius. He has brought in more subs than most people expected, so this is in no way an attempt to downplay his success. Stern also continues to be bring brand awareness to the entire satellite radio sector, Sirius especially. So let's not go there.
Moving on.
A recent Bridge Ratings study estimates that a total of 1.6 million Stern fans have made the jump to Sirius with him. That's approximately 13% of his total fan base. During the first month following Stern's move to Sirius, David Lee Roth lost 75% of his audience - no doubt many of these listeners decided to subscribe to Sirius after hearing his on-air dribble.
But in April, Opie and Anthony signed with CBS Radio and began broadcasting in many of Stern's prior markets. They now are syndicated in 26 different stations nationwide. Below is a chart that shows the number of Stern influenced subscribers, with the time periods of when O&A began syndicating to terrestrial:
An interesting coincidence to say the least. Now this isn't necessarily translating to XM subscribers either. In the week following Thanksgiving, Bridge estimates that 15% of respondents were Stern motivated subscribers, compared to a mere 3% of Opie and Anthony motivated subscribers.
But the fact that new nationally syndicated "shock jock" talent is now available on terrestrial radio has most likely caused many listeners to reconsider a satellite radio subscription. This could also be why satellite radio has dropped off the map as being a "hot item" of the Holiday season.
The fact is, prior to Stern migrating to Sirius there was absolutely no non-political morning drive talent on the air. When Stern left, the vaccum of poor on-air personalities undoubted drove a portion of the audience to seek an alternative - even if they had to pay for it. But with a free alternative readily available, there's no impending reason to leave anymore.
Food for thought.
Comment whoring, Ryan? ;)
no
The whole scenario is certainly possible, but do these two shows ultimately have that much of an effect on the entire industry?
That's mind-blowing if it's the case...
Oh My...Maybe its was Whoopie! hehe...
Please...Ryan did you really need to stir up conversation?
My vote is on Satellite radio simply cooling down. O/A's FM ratings havent been that great to warrant comparison. Besides they have been on XM and didnt/havent made much of an impact. What about an Oprah Effect? Was there ever one? Did Oprah make an impact that would indicate that it rivaled Stern's?
Maybe im missing something but why hasnt there been really any promotion on Sirius part for Howard Stern this holiday season?? Or the Stiletto and its advantages having content over the IPOD?? Someone dropped the ball here
Omg. Spring came in April/May too, I think Spring killed the Stern effect. An interesting coincidence, isn't it?
Holy Mother of God, Ryan...what are you trying to do?
I'm simply putting it up for conversation. Think about it from an open minded standpoint. I'm not saying "O&A BEAT STERN" or any crap like that. Just trying to see if there is a correlation to a weakness in retail to the arrival of on-air terrestrial talent.
Terrestrial radio is it's own worst enemy. The lack of good content on regular radio is going to inevitably drive up interest in satellite. Whether it be music, or on-air personalities.
I considered naming this "Did O&A Kill Satellite Radio?" but that's apples and oranges since there's much more to the industry than just shock jocks. It's instead more realistic to compare morning-drive personalities and their affect on each other.
Devil's Advocate: There's no magic to it. There's just a finite number of subscribers who would be Stern-influenced and those would naturally revolve around the beginning of January.
Its all good Ryan.. you don't have to explain yourself. You have to keep conversation interesting.
One thing though, Is Satellite radio doomed since its only real spike has been attributed to 1 personality? Maybe a merger is required?
Either way...You always keep your site interesting, Ryan. Thats why we come here!
Thanks!!!!
Good observation Ryan....It may part of the reason, but like you said, Stern is still very popular.
Wow, talk about feeding the trolls. So let me bite.
Did Opie & Anthony Stop "The Stern Effect"? - NO. Sorry O&A fans but these guys are not even in the same league as Stern. I gave O&A a chance on Fridays for their first few months. I also woke up to them every morning as my alarm clock is old school. Frankly, they are not at Howard's level in production quality or entertainment value. Jim Norton is the only saving face on the show and his Colin Quinn rip off style of humor gets tiring. They are boring and sound like the bitter kids that were picked on in high school. So bite back O&A fans. Every time I come on Orbitcast and see you Pests commenting on Stern and Sirius and how much they suck I have to laugh. It is time to get over it and realize that your hatred stems from jealously that your "boys" will never reach Stern's level..
If you look at the chart the decline was already there. The Stern Effect ended naturally.
Ryan,
I tend to agree with your last paragraph. If you handed me the purple chart and asked me to guess what the next seven months would be like, I'd have come up with something very similar to the orange chart. Stern's biggest fans switched over when he did, and increasingly casual listeners switched over in increasingly smaller numbers as time went on. It's inevitable that interest would level off with Stern living in his little Fortress of Solitude at Sirius.
So as much as I enjoy the boys, I wouldn't give them any "credit" for Stern's waning ability to drive new subscribers.
You're basically equating the entire satellite radio industry to a couple of shock jocks. That's a faulty premise at best. Then you attempt to back up your claim with the equally flimsy statement, "Think about it from an open minded standpoint."
The argument has nothing to do with being open minded or not - it's simply a false premise.
As much as I'd like to give O&A for the work they do, you can tell by the charts they probably had little to do with the demise of the "Stern Effect."
The charts clearly show an immediate pop once Stern went live on SIRIUS (as well as one month prior and after), then a quick falloff long before O&A went to Free FM.
Essentially, this means almost everyone that Stern was going to bring with him, he brought right away. A great shot in the arm for SIRIUS, but no long lasting effect.
The softness at retail this year simply means satellite radio has failed to move beyond the early adopters as a 'must-have' item as a large portion of the mainstream market is choosing the iPod over both terrestrial and satellite radio.
So what would have happened if David Lee Roth continued?
>> So bite back O&A fans. Every time I come on Orbitcast and see you Pests commenting on Stern and Sirius and how much they suck I have to laugh. It is time to get over it and realize that your hatred stems from jealously that your "boys" will never reach Stern's level. >>
All of this is simply *your* opinion - thanks for playing!
no.xm maybe.sat radio is up against x-box 360 ,PS3 , lower prices on HDTVS , HD-DVD and blu-ray players
as top gifts this christmas.maybe sirius will get a boost next week when stern goes out to promote.
two things.
1- based on their current ratings i would think that that was proof enough that they are not the impact you show in that graph.
2- O&A last i heard was covering about 33% of stern's audience. Would this make that kind of impact.
did O&A impact stern, sure. a 1/2 way decient program to listen too.
Did O&A stomp the stern impact, nope it silly to try to compair the inital year rush to stern vs this year, its going to look ugly no matter how you look at it. might as well blame it on the fact he takes fridays off now everyweek, where before spring/summer he did not.
I would like to see a graph for XM showing how O&A on terrestial has had an effect on people signing up
PNess: That's probably the most convincing argument yet. Well said!
"So what would have happened if David Lee Roth continued?
Why, Radio magic, of course. Huge ratings. Frogs falling from the sky. Sacrifice of the first born. That sort of thing...
CBS will rue the day they dumped Diamond Dave!!!!!!!!!
Just a gigolo...
Wow..I am surprised at how tame and reasonable the conversations have been. It must be part of the slowing "Stern" effect.
Haha. Good stuff though!
I think Stern quashed the Stern effect. The fall off in subscribers is due to the fact that most of his listeners didn't think he was worth the jump to sat radio, and that sat radio did not offer them enough to justify the cost (of course, we all know that the benefit of sat radio, XM or Sirius, outweighs the minor cost). Those who wanted to jump did so either before the move to Sirius, or in the 6 months after. The majority of those on the fence who had not jumped at first stayed with terrestrial radio either because they felt that Stern/sat radio was not worth the expense or they found some other program to listen to that filled that morning need. Was it O&A? For some, sure, but maybe not enough to quash the Stern effect.
Had XM gotten Stern, Sirius would be history because it was not getting the subs before he signed, which is why they had to ensure that XM did not outbit them.
In the end, I think both companies will survive (barring any merger -- rumors continue to pop up). I think Sirius paid too much for Howard, and when his 5-year contract is up, he will be out of radio because it will cost another 1/2 billion by Sirius to keep him (I think he will try to negotiate for a ridiculous amount because he knows he won't get it, then he'll retire). Sirius will move on without him.
why then do all the station they are on ratings suck? (rhetorical).
Sorry, Satellite radio in general and Sirius specifically were in a downward trend in the Spring. Other than a small percentage of the Stern listeners that read blogs and visit fan sites, the average terretrial Stern show listener would not have known or cared too much about O&A coming back in April. That fact is backed up by the relatively piss poor ratings they were getting initially on "Free" FM (even if you factored out David Lee Roth's low ratings) and the minor media buzz they received http://www.google.com/trends?q=opie+anthony%2C+Howard+Stern&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all
Their ratings still aren't that great and they don't have nearly the same type of media exposure (movie, TV, news reports, references to their show on other media outlets, etc) as Stern had pre-Sirius and while at Sirius.
Oh boy Ryan, opening up a can of worms! Just kidding.
I like both PNess and ibands explanations.
Complacency is probably what killed the Stern effect. Those that wanted to sign up have signed up for him. Now there are plenty of other things to listen too (not just terrestrial) that may keep people away from satellite radio.
You're basically equating the entire satellite radio industry to a couple of shock jocks. That's a faulty premise at best. Then you attempt to back up your claim with the equally flimsy statement, "Think about it from an open minded standpoint."
PNess and iband have pretty much summed it up already, but you're missing it here Dale. For the last year Sirius has been synonymous Stern. He was their marketing push and most likely the driving force behind a high percentage of their subscribers. That focus has recently changed and Sirius is now marketing him less. Ryan is just throwing out a graph that shows a decline in Sirius subscriptions that correlates nicely with when O&A started on terrestrial.
If you follow Ryan's advice you'll realize that there are some basic commonalities between shows Howard and O&A put on. Hell, Howard says they've stolen his act, maybe there are more similarities between the two than I thought (joking). Given that they both put on similar shows, can you see how there might be a possibility that someone who is not a die hard fan could enjoy O&A during their morning commute (and save $13/mo while they are at it)? Forget the people who listen for 4 hours a day, think about someone who doesn't want Whoopie or music and is driving 45 minutes to work.
Or maybe the retail market is soft and this is the natural decline.
Never wqould have thought about that...I'm a big O&A fan and this could be a possibilty.
stern RULEd back in 1993 now O&A are the hottest show on radio stern is washed up plus a hypocritic sellout thats why O&A have more listeners(including me).
I considered naming this "Did O&A Kill Satellite Radio?"
So if that is the case, shouldn't we be mad with them on A "PRO" satrad web site. There is no dought that Stern has been "good" for starad. So we should all "like" Howard, "RIGHT"
ps-Ryan, dosn't gas cost to much to be throwing around like that, for A non-story.
or maybe, just maybe, the fall off happened in the 2nd qtr this year when everyone estimated it would.
if o&a had an effect, XM would be selling more radios in retail than Sirius. Sirius continues to beat them out month after month.
please put some time into explaining that trend on your next blog!
I think having a clouded fan boy crush on o&a disrupts ryan's importance that sat. radio be successful. to even bring up that a terrestrial radio show causes declines in sat. radio is disgraceful to what ryan is supposedly doing here. root for the industry not o&a. show the increases in xm's ad revenue due to the rising number of o&a/xm awareness. show thier steady sub increase since(if any). not the negatives it brings sirius/stern.
It is a total coincidence. O&A went to radio after the Stern "moving to Sirius buzz" had cooled down. That spike in the graph has to do with 1-9-06 and it came down a few months later as everyone expected it would. This post doesnt even make for good conversation.
i think the stern fans are being a little too sensitive over a chart. what really happened is sirius spent a ton of money on talent because they had to , hoping that Howards core audience was larger than it is and they were wrong .
"I think having a clouded fan boy crush on o&a disrupts ryan's importance that sat. radio be successful. to even bring up that a terrestrial radio show causes declines in sat. radio is disgraceful to what ryan is supposedly doing here. root for the industry not o&a. show the increases in xm's ad revenue due to the rising number of o&a/xm awareness. show thier steady sub increase since(if any). not the negatives it brings sirius/stern."
Hey, I have an idea...and I'm just going to throw this out there. How about Ryan write blogs about the possitive & negative effets on Sat Radio instead of being some cheerleader that just roots for the industry like you seem to want?
Look, I'm sorry the statistical data clearly shows that O&A Beat Stern. I'm sorry Ryan distrubed the delusional reality you're living in by blogging & smacking you in the face with the cold hard hand of reality leaving you with no choice but to accept the fact that we O&A fans won, and you Sterncunts lost.
Since you're so sensitive to anything negative, why don't you go over to SFN, where everything said about Stern is possitive?
Speaking of possitive, did your mom get her HIV test back yet? Be sure to tell her to call me with the results.
Regards,
Westfall
Well said FaFaFluFly.
The problem comes when FreeFM approaches O&A and says "Leave XM and we will pay you big $$$ with large sydication." I am suprised that FreeFM even brokered the deal with them as it becomes an appealing commercial for XM every day O&A are on. Something that Stern was smacked around a bit for from the same bosses.
In the end, we all do need to root for SatRad in general.
This article makes me laugh ......... HAHAHHAHAHHA!!!
Not even O&A trolls believe this.
HAHAHAHAHAHAH!!
I'm surprised at the link you made between Stern and O&A. Your observations are usually more careful than this. The relationship between the two shows is arbitary as some have pointed out. Too many factors can coincide with these numbers. For instance, maybe there is an increased love for MP3 players or NPR for that matter.
As I have read at Arbitron, the terrestrial stations that O&A have gone to have dropped significantly in their cum ratings since Howard left them, and with no statistical improvement in major markets after O&A arrived. This indicates that if something is reducing the monthly new supscriptions, it is not any terrestrial program with a small audience.
But for the complainers, remember that the article asks a question about the Stern Effect; namely, the ability for Sirius to gain subscribers because of the Stern move. The numbers appear to verify that the Stern Effect has dramatically slowed after its extraordinary, unprecedented benefit. The Stern Effect may increase again as Stern gets out the sales pitch before the holidays, but it has slowed. No doubt. Even if it was a great move for Sirius that they will continue to benefit from for years to come.
"possitive"?
Perhaps there's a dictionary in your mom's basement you could use...
Maybe it's next to all the sticky photos of your imaginary "girlfriends" and receipts from the "Big Stock Score" you just made.
Heh. What a load of bullshit.
Very weak. They haven't even broken a 5 share in their market!!! When they break 5 then you can give O&A maybe some credit. But still it doesn't explain why XM radio sales are getting their ass kicked 2 to 1 as well.
I wonder if there would be more subs if their was only 1 sat radio service?
In my own opinion the O&A arrival and Sirius' slow down of growth is purely coincidental. Ryan, I have always been a fan of your work, but I must say I wonder why you didn't include XM being effected. They've also had a slow down.
Anyways, I think people were expecting a year like last (or better) and the truth is that probably won't happen again.
Its as simple as this - Stern isnt as important as he once was (or likes to think he still is). When he left for Sirius, most of the listeners were listening to him by default since it was what you did in the morning on your way to work, like reading the paper or drinking coffee. Once he was gone from the airwaves, those hardcore fans left with him, however they were not as numerous as Sirius had hoped. Most of these people listened to Stern for years and remember him as the guy he was in the 80s and early 90s. Those who picked him up in the past 10 years saw no reason to follow him to satellite because lets face it, they never heard the great radio that his hardcore fans talk about.
Now that he is gone, the majority of his audience found something else to listen to whether it is O&A, music, whoopie or the sounds of traffic. By not putting on a good show up until the time he left, Howard chose his own fate on Satellite, and it is showing.
While he did a good job convincing a million or so people to switch, he could have done better. And now it is too late no matter how much advertising he does.
You could put any labels you want on those charts...
Pre & Post Tax Day... Pre & Post Scott McClellan Resigns from White House Post... Pre & Post murder of Proof from D12...
...and I can make a better arguement than for O&A having anything to do with it. Show the 7 months before Oct 05, and you'll clearly see the "Stern Spike". No more. No less.
Overlay the chart of Howard's decline with total satrad subscribers and tell me what you see.
Pockpie sees all/Knows all.
stern fans definitely are bitter and tempermental nowadays. its over fellas, stern is no longer relevant
Mendoza,
Happy Hanukkah.
Stern fans have been hearing for years that he is no longer relevant, but the announcements have always been followed by evidence of the opposite. Yes the Sirius new subscriptions fell, but after they surpassed Sirius' initial predictions. In fact, the current Sirius end-of-year projections for total subscriptions is in line with their initial end-of-year projections.
When you see the drastic loss in CBS radio value after Stern left (Viacom is trying to sell the radio division now), and the dramatic loss of ratings shares in former Stern stations, Stern has shown that an entertainer can actually drain one medium and boost another simply by his association. That's relevance no matter how you view it.
I am not even sure that was the real Westfall its seems a tad dumb for even him..
"Look, I'm sorry the statistical data clearly shows that O&A Beat Stern"
AND where is this data? no one even does statistical studies on the "O&A effect". You can't even think that they even come close to the sat audience that stern has can you? this cannot be the real westfall cause even i give him some credit for not being THIS DUMB?
Remember the top 5 shows XM printed in the Wall street mid year? remembe who was not on there? remember #5 was at 800k.... so that puts O&A even lower. HAHAHAH
Funny someone even more sad then Westfall
"stern RULEd back in 1993 now O&A are the hottest show on radio stern is washed up plus a hypocritic sellout thats why O&A have more listeners(including me)."
where do i start?
Hypocritical sellouts - that's why O&A are back on radio doing a 1/2 assed edited/FCC positive show?
Sellouts who said "FreeFM sucks" then signs a contract with the same "FreeFM" folks?
Sigh at least some of the stern fans here try to back up with a little data kido.
Sorry to burst your bubble VAgina but XM announced on the air that O&A was their most listened to station overall. #1. And in many of the terrestrial markets they are in, they are already #1. In less than 6 months. You don't have XM and don't like their show but the fact is, as an XM listener, I prefer the duel format. CBS gives access to better guests (something Howard has not been able to get) and they get around the rules by being creative not bitching non-stop about the rules.
And look at ANY media publication. I'll pick Media Week but you could look up the numbers in Ad Week, Ad Age, AAAA, Brand Week, Forbes, etc..and you'll see that O&A have MILLIONS more listeners than Howard, period.
PFreak,
First, I have no opinion on O&A having not heard them. Could be I'd love them. I just don't know. But . . .
With 7 million subscribers and 170 stations, O&A could have 50,000 listeners and be XM's number one show.
As for O&A being number 1 in any terrestrial market, where are you getting this info? Arbitron is showing such low ratings for O&A stations in major markets that there is no statistical significance between pre and post O&A programming on those stations. Look at Boston, Chicago, NY, LA, Houston, SF at this site: http://www.arbitron.com/home/ratings.htm
It costs big bucks to see the details for each hour by demographic at Arbitron, but you can see at this free report that O&A have no statistically positive effect on the stations they join, and that the stations drop after Winter 06 when Stern left. Any hangers on listened and left the stations within weeks. Did they go to NPR? Mp3 players? I don't know.
More power to you listening to what you enjoy. That's great. Satellite is a great technology that I hope succeeds for any vendor and for any talent. But don't be certain without evidence.
And don't rely on an entertainer to tell you how successfult they are, especially when they are in the promotions business as radio entertainers are.
The only reason why I'm even interested in this discussion is because people tend to forget that this is materially a business discussion. Performance in the marketplace should be understood and discussed with some knowledge of the data and clear analysis. Whether someone prefers Stern or O&A is immaterial to the on-the-ground business data and the relevance to the industry.
Given the usually even-handed reportage on this blog, I'd hoped that visitors would make that distinction.
Pfreak at least my vagina does not make shit up.
"see that O&A have MILLIONS more listeners than Howard,"
http://www.orbitcast.com/archives/xms-listener-audience/circulation.html
But XM has shown us a glimpse, here's the breakdown:
Total number of XM Radio Listeners* - 13.6 million
XM's The '70s - 2.1 million listeners
XM's The '80s - 1.9 million listeners
XM's 20-on-20 - 1.8 million listeners
Wait i got more fuck face
http://www.orbitcast.com/archives/new-xm-shareholder-presentation.html
Lowest one on list is 1.1m
SO don't you have to get to a MILLION FIRST in order to have "MILLIONS MORE".
FUCKING IDIOT.. you sir even beat westfall!!
i think they would crow a little more if they were doing so well for XM huh?
there is a whole website that talks about this whole Stern /Opie and anthony issue, its www.sternvirus.com
VAgina,
you really are a fucking idiot. First, O&A have millions more listeners. I'm not just talking XM vs Sirius, I'm counting their terrestrial markets. In NYC alone there are as many people as Sirius has total subscribers nationwide. You seem to think everyone that has Sirius listens to Howard. Not true. His audience at any given time is now in the hundred thousands, not even one million people are ever listening to his show at a given time.
I work at a major media company and I get my numbers from the media buying department and their numbers are spot on. These are the numbers that we use to see what we should be paying for advertising. Simple to look at. O&A have millions more listeners. They are already #1 in their demo in many of their markets. Some markets they are doing poorly and will not succeed but if you wanted to look at Howards ratings you'd see that he was far from #1 in many of his markets for the last 10 years. When he left FM his ratings in many markets were terrible. I love Howard's show and listen everyday so I hear the same numbers he tells waterheads like you and you eat it up.
XM, unlike Sirius, has a different business strategy. They don't base there whole company on one talent. You can see what's happening to Sirius now and see what a poor strategy that was. This is why they don't push O&A, just like they don't push Oprah or Ellen or any single celeb. But if you wanted to buy advertising you could see what is listened to the most and it is XM 202.
Do I think there is an O&A effect? Not really, but the fact is Howard isn't that important to anyone but his most rabid fans so most people that listened for 30 minutes in the car have found something else to listen to be it music, another talk show or yes, O&A. These people will never pay for Howard or O&A, they need to know the real benefits of satradio, they won't subscribe for a talkshow.