Oh lookie here, the Motley Fool is at least equally against both satellite radio stocks when it comes to investing in 2007, also giving XM Satellite Radio the label of The Worst Stock for 2007 (and yes kids, I did miss this article an hour ago).
Of particular focus on Fool's article is XM's ever decreasing equity value. Their thought is that the drop in shareholder value can only make sense if XM were to dominate the market - like eBay or Amazon. They just don't see that happening with big players like terrestrial radio or Apple in place.
The Fool also calls into question XM's prediction of reaching 20 million subscribers by 2010 - they don't see that happening either. It's on this point I vehemently disagree. We have yet to reach the full potential of the OEM channel, and while the conversion rate is going to go down, the exposure if going to increase. Still, a lot could change in 3 years (just look at satrad retail marketshare).
True that XMSR has suffered over the year but it has been very steadily rising as of late.
The worst stock? I don't think so. I think that the Fools are angry because they promoted that stock and backed it so loudly and now they are bitter. Just my opinion.
The same OEM channel that offers line-in options on base model inexpensive cars as a standard feature making every iPod/DAP/Portable CD Player owner need SatRad just that much less?
Auto OEM is a nice after thought on a car purchase and might be a good idea if the SatRads didn't sign exclusive deals with auto manufacturers. As it stands now OEM is a dead market.
As it stands now OEM is a dead market.
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Ummm, WHAT?!?!?!? Sat rad is becomming Standard in Autos's. This will be in addition to CD players /AM/FM/ Aux inputs Wifi/Bluetooth/and on board hard drives.
As for the fools article, I said it before I will say it again. They not the expenses without noting what they were. Deleveraging charges will dissapear going foward. This could recuce XM's outlay by 25-100 million per Quater. After this Q4 2006 the Capex will be over with one exception XM5. XM is poised to be CFBE on a sustainable basis going foward. This means no furthur Dilution, No furthur debt, and ... dare I say it..... with another 2 million subscribers on top of today ..... profits?
Remember back in the day when people actually cared what The Motley Fool had to say? No? Me neither. Maybe I'll Ask Jeeves what it was like back then. Maybe the Pets.com dog remembers. Or Vincent Flanders.
how is oem a dead market? is it because the customer doesn't have the choice between the two sat. companies when purchasing a car? if it wasn't for the oem market, i don't think xm or sirius would make it.
Bottomline picking a stock for a year and being right has more to do with the current pricing of the stock then if the long term business structure of a company makes sense. If these stocks come down in price, it is becasue they ran to high and not becasue these buisness' dont make sense. Satellite radio is here to stay.
If these stocks come down in price, it is becasue they ran to high and not becasue these buisness' dont make sense. Satellite radio is here to stay.
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I would venture to say thats what happened to XM and it share price.
I recently purchased a new car. I narrowed my decision down to two cars, the Audi A4 and the Acura TL. I purchased the Acura because the Audi only came with Sirius sattilite radio. There was no way I would pay $12.95 per month towards Howard Sterns' 1/2 billion dollar retirement fund.
FaFaFluFLy said: "if it wasn't for the oem market, i don't think xm or sirius would make it."
Mike K said: "Satellite radio is here to stay."
You guys are both right. While the danger to SDARS stocks right now is immediate, it bodes a little better down the line. Keep in mind that these companies are here to stay...whether the stock bombs or not, for somebody will swoop in and buy them out. There's too much going on for somebody not to come in and take them over if it gets uglier. The companies offer a lot of potential.
Now is not the time to be holding on to the stock however. Too much money is burning.
99% will not base a car decision on what satrad it comes with, and if they do they're idiots.
The OEM is a dead market because they aren't real subscribers, they are people who got it "free" with the car. Once they resubscribe or continue the subscription then they should be counted.
What is the retention rate on OEM costumers anyway?
It's all smoke and mirrors. Like how it's now for every subscription it's 2.5 people listening, or something stupid like that, so they can further inflate their listenership.
did you know there is over 5.5 million factory installed xm radios on the street? oem is a dead market alright.
A pox upon both their houses, the lying cheating bastards.
Since management of both sides have been so horribly worng about almost every aspect of their businesses, can any of us think they are anything but either folls or frauds.
You can't be so wrong, so often, and consider yoursleves capable.
The Dow breaks new records and hits 12,500 while Sirius and XM lose again another day while breaking new lows as is the case for Sirius.
Lying fucks all.