An article from Forbes points out that Merrill Lynch said some interesting things about the future of the satellite radio industry based on some jointly released data by Arbitron and Edison Media Research.
"We continue to forecast that satellite radio will take a decade to accumulate 40 million subscribers (15% of the terrestrial radio audience) while terrestrial radio revenue should grow in-line with GDP," Merrill said. I personally feel this forecast is low considering the number of automobile manufacturers helping penetration. Deals like the Hyundai offering XM as standard equipment are going to rapidly increase the number of subscribers at a ridiculous pace.
But then Merrill talks about how Satellite Radio awareness is on the rise with Sirius Satellite Radio "taking the lead." Awareness of Sirius rose to 54% in January 2005 from 28% in January 2004, while awareness of rival XM Satellite Radio Holdings rose to 50% from 41%. "We note that Sirius surpassed XM for the first time in this category, partially helped by its high-profile announcements of Howard Stern's and Mel Karmazin's decision to join Sirius," Merrill said, noting that 2 million to 3 million incremental subscribers attributable to Stern "is achievable."
Not sure how much Mel coming on board has to do with consumer brand awareness as most radio listeners have no clue who he is. He definitely had a huge effect on awareness for those on Wall Street, but as for someone recognizing Sirius over XM? That all goes to Howard.
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