At the recent House and Senate hearings on the XM-Sirius merger, it's amazing to see how little is understood about the next generation of multimedia delivery options. A lot of the focus seems to be on WiMAX - maybe because it's a fun buzzword - but the reality is that WiMAX is still a ways off in the distance... and yet mobile phone services (particularly 3G) are here already.
In the first House hearing, the NAB constantly noted that satellite radio is the only "nationwide, multichannel mobile audio programming service" available on the market. My instant thought was that mobile phone services were (intentionally) completely ignored, and I felt Mel Karmazin didn't seem to push that opposing view hard enough.
In the second and third hearings, Karmazin did a better job of highlighting the multimedia abilities of mobile phone networks, but he also lumped in WiMAX into the picture. But WiMAX is completely nascent, and (funny enough) the Congressmen seemed to confuse it with Wi-Fi.
The real threat comes from mobile phone services, and specifically on 3G where the speeds really begin to make a difference. The importance here is that the technology currently exists, and is a high priority by wireless carriers. There's also a massive existing subscriber base (I believe in the realm of 75% of the U.S. population) and so they have an incredible platform to build upon.
Then there's those content agreements. Sprint has a deal with the NFL and the MLB, not to mention other services like MobiRadio which offer ESPN Radio and Radio Disney through several wireless carriers. And that doesn't even include various over-the-air music offerings.
Regardless of all these offerings, the general public (and likely government officials listening to these arguments) don't think of their cellphone as a music device. A cellphone's primary function is to make phone calls. But once a company is actually able to figure out how to meld the function of making phone calls, with that of a quality listening experience, then the general public's opinion will evolve.
...did I forget to mention the iPhone?
No, a $600 touch-screen phone isn't going to instantly change the world overnight. But it's a stepping stone, and one that Apple no-doubt understands. Just like the iPod, they're not the first to come to market with this concept (music + phone), but they'll be the one to properly execute on it. And as the critical mass evolves to accept the iPhone, Apple will evolve along with it - bring wireless over-the-air services to the iPhone - at breakneck 3G speeds.
And Apple will use it's already established relationships with auto manufacturers as a stepping stone as well. Before long, there will be a cradle that you can snap your iPhone into, and have your own person tunes mixed with over-the-air wireless music and live events. The ubiquitous cellphone, and the ubiquitous iPod, will combine to become the next generation of ubiquitous radio. A nationwide multichannel audio service on a device that is globally accepted.
It's not the immediate future. But it's also not the too-distance future either.
So the next time the NAB points the finger at Satellite Radio as being a unique service - ignore the fact that they syndicate programming across hundreds of stations nationwide (and really, is that any different than using repeater towers?) - but just hand them a list of the wireless carriers and give 'em a big smile.
Probably the most compelling argument to date for competition. Are these cell phone offerings by MLB , NFL and tons of radio stations mentioned in the FCC filing Sirius and XM did Ryan? I assume they are. This makes the argument of no competition almost ludicrous.
Apple has only two problems with the iPhone.
1. It's not 3G. At least not in its first version. Obviously they could use this as a new feature in the future. And even if it were 3G, Cingular's 3G network is considerably smaller in coverage than both Verizon and Sprint.
2. Apple has HIGH demands from the carriers. Keep in mind that Apple approached Verizon before they approached Cingular, and Verizon turned them down because they didn't like the terms of the deal.
So it'll be interesting to see if Apple can take off with the iPhone or not. Personally, I'll be waiting for a 3G version before I check it out.
Although it is too soon to tell but from the information that I have heard about the iphone it will not be a business phone so Treos, Blackberrys, etc have little to worry about. I can not see Joe CEO buying this device.
Hell I can't see buying a phone for music. Not to mention using a service that is geared towards the population that can't even drive.
Cellphones are fashion accessories for a lot of people, and the iPhone excels in a the "cool factor" - you can bet there'll be a lot of people looking over iPhone users' shoulders when they come out.
But remember, I'm not saying it's the be-all and end-all of music devices. I'm just saying it has the potential of being that way. A phone, first and foremost, needs to be a good phone. If Apple is able to pull this off, but 2010 the public is going to have a different perception about how their cellphones should function.
Also remember that Apple's entrance into the market is going to make other manufacturers start to really concentrate on the music capabilities of their own offering. So all cellphones are going to be pushing their music features. That's why it's so important that both XM and Sirius get a foothold in this area. And that's why the argument that XM and Sirius are the "only" national multichannel audio service providers is absolutely ridiculous.
Depends on what you mean by "all cellphones." Right now, I see only one or two networks carrying music-playable phones, however the other popular networks that are being used by the majority have no plans for a musicphone. Whether or not that might change in 2010, the only networks I see that have musicphones is Cingular (upcoming), Sprint (Sirius), Alltel (XM) and Verizon (own service), and I have yet to see future plans for other networks such as T-Mobile to incorporate music playing phones.
Actually it is not a "cellphone" as cellphones are not made anymore, at least as far as I can tell in this country. They are called mobile phones. Cell was used because they were on cellular networks but now they are all digital networks.