One wonders if Satradio is standard in all vehicles, how many car buyers will have them removed in favor of the factory ipod connections. And that's a big IF since the industry has bigger fish to fry with the FCC/NAB/RIAA, while Apple has already had their issues with the RIAA and came through just fine. And they don't have the FCC/NAB to contend with. XM/Sirius needs leadership with some cajones who can take these people on like Apple/Steve Jobs did the RIAA. That's the only way they'll succeed.

Sirius has consistently this year done better than the same quarter last year in every single quarter. I expect Q406 to be better than Q405.

With XM I can't say the same. They have consistently done the opposite and disappointed in the year over year quarter category. Expect well under last years Q405 900,000 for XM. Expect anywhere from 35 to 50% less.

Both companies need a big 4Q push, and I think you will see a great deal of advertising beginning in November, a few weeks before the holiday shopping season begins.

I have always felt that OEM is key, and still believe it -- most folks listen to radio in the car. While the diehards like us use our portables, it's hard to compete with the iPod.

I applaud XM and Sirius for the new portable devices, but these devices have a long way to go before they start to chip away at the MP3/iPod market.

I love my Helix -- I listen to it in my office and on the go. I also still use my iPod when I want access to my huge CD collection. If the Helix had 30GB of storage, I would have only one device. Someday, but not this holiday season.

For those who want to bash XM and Sirius for their numbers, remember -- both need to survive for this industry to survive.

Here's hoping for a huge 4Q for both (okay, I'd like XM's to be more gooder).

"They need to simplify plug-and-play receivers (or just get rid of them). They need to kill the FM modulators. They need to remove the wires. They need to stop asking us to wear antennas on our heads."

Couldn't agree with you more. The first company - XM or Sirius - that makes a receiver as easy to use as an iPod will dominate the industry. Alas, I see no indication of that in the near future...

Ryan,
I too do not think Retail has peaked. Bottom line here is GROSS numbers. Looking at Q2 we see 840,000 and 940,000 new subscribers total for Sat Rad. These numbers are nothing to sneeze at. Much of the "churn" comes from other places such as OEM cars sold after 2 years or non payment. Don't get me wrong. The numbers released yesterday are disapointing to say the least. However we really need to see the breakdown of Gross, OEM, Retail and Net to get a true picture.

for insance. If GM and Honda have not ramped up factory installs at all this year then OEM for XM will be relitively fla and the 285,000 net would be mostly retail. While over on the sirius side where Chrysler did not cut back production and their dealer inventoy is well over the 3 month average we need to ask how many cars are unsold (shifting subs up) and how many are in promotional periods. Again the Sirius way of counting is not wrong. its just drasticly different than XM and to see Forbes, The Wall Street rag and all the others reporting how Sirius beat XM is simply wrong. As of Now we do not know who did better.

going foward I want to know whats going to be done to maintain subscribers. something like a loyalty dicount. After the subscriber is a subscriber the SAC is paid (mostly negative margin on receivers and advertizing) So why not dicount renewals after 2 years or so?

The answer is in the palm of my hand right now, the XM passport. The more devices made available with this little guy in mind, the better it will be for the industry.

"The answer is in the palm of my hand right now, the XM passport."

Yeah.. whatever.

You really don't get it? Do you?

MikeHunt (great screen name, BTW) - I think he is suggesting that having a small block that you can pop in your pocket and place in your car, home stereo, etc. gets rid of the mess of PNP units and makes it a more desirable way to add sat radio to your life.

Has it peaked? No.

Do the companies need to find new ways of getting subscribers? Absolutely.

OEM Support will continue to be needed but certainly not from the Big Three though. Since of course it is only called the Big Two now. Chrysler is and has been for a very long while a German company.

How can you remove the FM modulator and wires at the same time to make for an easier Plug n Play install for the lay person? If they "kill" the FM modulators for the car, what is the easy alternative to send the signal to your car radio?

Has it peaked? No.

Do the companies need to find new ways of getting subscribers? Absolutely.

OEM Support will continue to be needed but certainly not from the Big Three though. Since of course it is only called the Big Two now. Chrysler is and has been for a very long while a German company.

XMers don't understand that no one cares about their radios because it plays XM. Let'em be.

Siriusers dont understand that the industry is bigger than Howard Stern alone.

It will take a lot more to keep the industry afloat until large profits are seen by either company.

steve: FM modulators are not easy for the average person. Running wires under your car's headliner are not easy for the average person. These things need to disappear.

Plug-and-play receivers are a band-aid in my opinion.

The XM Mini-Tuner is a good starting point. It's a great starting point. But it's only half-way there. It need to be EMBEDDED into our devices.

Treat the retail channel like the OEM channel. Buy your consumer electronics whatever they may be (PSP, Zune, iPod, Nintendo DS, Mylo, oh and those pesky little cellphones) - with satellite radio pre-installed - and a trial subscription to boot.

That's penetration.

That asshole Stern says he's going to put a big push on for subscribers in the late fall. There are probably lots of jerky guys out there that havent bought a subscripion yet but love that jerk Stern. I see a big Q to end the year for Sirius. It hurts me to say it but Stern rules Satellite radio it seems.

I hate him. I hope that 666 loser burns in hell!

Hi Sal

Sirius has stuff people want to hear. Stern is the icing.

F YOU STAN

hi Fred

One of the better written ( if not best ) pieces I've read in the last 10 months.

Thanks Ryan !

"Sirius has stuff people want to hear. Stern is the icing."

Belive it or not, XM also has 'stuff' on it. Great music, unique shows, MLB, etc.

While many people will see Stern as a reason to choose Sirius over XM, you act as though it is the ONLY reason anybody would ever want satellite radio. By the reasoning of 50% of the people here, the satellite radio industry should collapse after stern retires because there will be no need for it anymore.

When looking at total subs, maybe 10% of the total got it for stern.

The bottom line is that aside from morning talk radio, both services have much more good programming to offer. So your whole "XM sucks because they have O&A" reasoning is getting old and clearly is just an attempt to look cool in front of other stern fans. This isnt a stern messageboard. Get over it.

I haven't said anything about O&A or Stern. Kill yourself.

Yea Mark, Kill yourself.

MarkS I seem to remember that most of the negativity is coming from the o&a crowd on this site. I believe most of the anti o&a comments are more of a reaction to the negative stern comments. Most of the negative o&a comments sound like the stern ones just to show how hypocrical the o&a fans are.

Just remember the only people bitching about the friday show are o&a fans. Stern fans on here an other boards have the opportunity to check the rest of the service out and we do not complain.

"...XM sucks because they have O&A..."

I never thought of it that way...but you're right!

:)

"When looking at total subs, maybe 10% of the total got it for stern"

so you are saying 500k subs for stern.

come on now even you cannot be that stupid, even the last "independent" estimates was at 2m+

The XM passport is now called the mini-tuner.

fuck all yall
hi benji

I don't like Stern. I chose Sirius over XM for two reasons:

-Hair Nation
-Buzzsaw

Both are far superior to the Boneyard on XM.