That's the basic thought that is being floated around on Seeking Alpha today. The long-winded article essentially comes to the conclusion that the delay in reaching a decision on the merger between Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. and XM Satellite Radio is a result of "the FCC's determination to establish its authority."It's an interesting theory, though I'm not so sure that the rest of the article gives it much validity (it's filled with obvious statements). Here's the basic gist of it:
"...this publication continues to perceive this merger as arguably the defining moment for the current and future FCC. Any approval that fails to enforce the FCC's authority via significant conditions beyond those proposed by the companies will effectively result in the FCC being labeled a 'rubber stamp' regulator for years to come -- at least with respect to major license transfers."In other words - from a 50,000 foot view - the FCC is hemming and hawing over this merger in a way to as to impose a sense of its authority.
Ultimately, M&A Research (the author of the article, who has historically been uber-conservative in their predictions over this deal), feels the FCC "will impose conditions which will force the companies to either submit to unwillingly or to reconsidering the combination altogether."
I don't know exactly how correct it is - but it's a curious thought to entertain. What's your opinion? Why do you think the FCC is taking so long?
[Seeking Alpha]
I really feel it is the NAB and members of congress that are paid off by the NAB. If you think about it, the Justice Dept really is not influenced so much by congress or lobbyists near as much as the FCC is. Its funny that when the merger was first announced that the FCC hinted that there may be a joint announcement, of course that has not happened.
Kevin Martin is "under the gun" perhaps, he is trying to appear not to be a "rubber stamp" to show that the FCC DOES have a spine. Maybe those people investigating him see this as a opportunity to exploit him...
I nominated the guy pictured for Bill O' Reilly's Pinhead segment.
This makes no logical sense. The FCC would be better off putting out an opinion ASAP. Simply adding time just makes them look more INcompetent. If they were after power, they'd simply put all sorts of regs on it and look like the tough guys. If they wanted to be pro-business, pro-consumer, they'd put the appropriate measures in place.
If they want to be a rubber stamp, they'd have said "OK" when Justice did.
This just makes them look like fools, and is giving fodder to the tin-foil hat club.
Well I thought that the FCC is deliberately trying to bleed Sirius and XM dry. They did not expect an approval from the DOJ, so they are trying to solve the "merger problem" by delaying it ad infinitum, until either the parties (xm/sirius) pull out or one or both of the companies goes bust.
That being said, I'm not sure about the FCC simply trying to flex its muscles, because if that were the case, they would be losing, seeing as how they are being bullied by every group out there, eg Georgetown Partners, Primosphere etc.
no one on the FCC has integrity...plain and simple
they promised a vote months ago and yet they continue to allow 'arguments' to filter in.
It is simply wrong....
Ultimately the author of this responce believes that M&A research does not mention that the DOJ did not act against the deal at any way as historically the M&A has supported.
Now tthe M&A supports the idea that the FCC will force the companies to go against their best interest.
Mel Karmazin has clearly said that the companies will walk away if the deal is not good for investors or subscribers.
And that says it all.
Interesting theory but I'm thinking they are being swarmed by so many interest groups they don't know what to do. They're gun-shy.
It is odd however, because Martin himself said he thought they'd have a decison by the end of Q1. Remember those days?
You really wonder if this is almost like the blu-ray/HD-DVD thing - someone took a suitcase full of cash and got the right connected people to get the FCC to just sit on this thing.
Exactly! They promised a lot of things.
I thought they were "preparing" documents for conditions / approval.
Isn't that what they announced in late March?
Whatever the reason the FCC is not doing what it should be doing. One way or the other it should not take this long. The inaction is hurting everybody.
The FCC knows the price is not going up and that Sirius and XM have not made money.
Consumers and stockholders are being hurt by the FCC
The FCC should say yes or no and get it over with.
As far as giving others bandwith i see it as wrong because stockholders have paid to get Sat radio were it is today. Sirius and XM started something that had never been done before and now others want in without doing the work and with far lower risk.
They must realize how bad they are hurting the retail end of these companies. I know for myself that I'm not going to reup until after they decide. The biggest gain from this delay is the NAB.
It's obvious that this is taking so long because they (the two sat co.'s and third parties) haven't reached acceptable terms that satisfies an approval by the FCC. I think they would have approved this merger long ago if not for the multiple AG, NAB, Senators, Primosphere and GP parties that have bombarded them with proposals, meetings, hearings, paperwork, phone calls, lobbyists, et.al. Look, the FCC doesn't want to be sued by anybody for approving this without giving fair and equal opportunity to all concerned parties. But more than that, they obviously are considering some of the proposals concerning spectrum allocation, leasing and licensing requests, such as from Primosphere.
Sure, they've had over a year to review the basics of the one company/two license question, but then after DOJ, it appears there was a landfall of the above-mentioned special interests and that translates into a long process of meetings, negotiations back and forth between the attorneys and reps, etc., etc. And that's with several all at once, not just one. Back in March when Kevin Martin announced that he was having his staff draw up paperwork outlining scenarios for an approval, that was no doubt when the next phase of this long process began. And he probably meant it when he said they would rule shortly after DOJ...at the time. But then comes the new round of all this - NAB, AGs, GP, etc.
Mel K's recent comment about backing out of the deal if the concessions are not acceptable or too restrictive should tell us alot about how this process is going. He knows already what's on the table - and his counter proposals and the third party proposals are being batted back and forth; it won't end until somebody either gives in enough to satisfy all interested parties or until Sirius and /or XM walk away from the deal.
If it was a matter of just deciding that the companies can't break the previous agreement, i believe that the FCC would have ruled on this some time ago. I think we should give the FCC more credit. They aren't going to be fooled by the special interest of GP for example, looking for a self-serving 20% of spectrum in the name of minority interest, especially when the Public Interest letter has clarified its position with regards to GP's proposals.
It's not the FCC that's holding this thing up, it's the special interests that have jumped into the Satrad bandwagon and compromised the whole trip. Everybody wants to go to town.
sock + pool ball = no more Ben Franklin glasses
Anybody who thinks this is retribution toward Howard or the FCC "posturing" is a nonsensical IDIOT.
There is no reason for it. None whatsoever, except for ineptness and mismanagement. All arguments were to be made by last JULY!
http://hraunfoss.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/DA-07-2417A1.pdf
Which leads to the answer of collusion, payoffs and such. People are making money stalling it or it would have been done. It's always about money.
".......sock + pool ball = no more Ben Franklin glasses....."
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resorting to violence won't solve anything. then we'd have to wait for Kev to get out of the hospital. thumbs down.
Personally, I am done waiting for FCC approval and wondering what Sirius Select channels will be available on my OEM XM. I'm getting the Sirius Connect installed this weekend. Then I can say goodbye to Michael Jackson, George Strait, and the Indy 500, and hello to Howard, Springsteen, the Dead, and Lou Reed. I'll even stick a Sirius magnetic antenna next to my factory installed XM antenna so I can save $100. (My wife thinks I'm crazy, but what else is new?)
How bad is XM? Put it this way: When I called to cancel, they offered me three free months. And I'm still gonna cancel it.
Here's what Mel should do.
Take one spectrum. Turn off 8 million radios, and tell the customers to refer their complaints to the FCC. Like anyone with a fucking brain wants satrad company number 2.
Basically do the deal, and shut XM off.
Here's what Mel should do.
Take one spectrum. Turn off 8 million radios, and tell the customers to refer their complaints to the FCC. Like anyone with a fucking brain wants satrad company number 2.
Basically do the deal, and shut XM off.
Under what circumstance are these arguments worth secrecy?
These are public agencies, saying they have the public's interest in mind.
Well then, make these arguments PUBLIC. If they're not wasting time, TELL EVERYONE. Otherwise, this serves no one.
so for the first time, a company that would have leased out some spectrum, gone ala carte, had a price freeze as well as given more channels that they already do to "special interests" groups will be forced to not accept the terms dictated by the NAB, Georgetown and others--Basically it sounds like the FCC can wimp out to the pressure, and say"we approved it" but the companies couldnt live with it-(conditions)
But say goodbye to alacarte and hello price increase then-
TO THE FCC:
What is taking so long with this decision? Your pace is making you people look like IDIOTS. The FCC has made harder decisions faster. People are now saying that you are in the pockets of the NAB and other special interests groups. Maybe its true, and the DOJ needs to investigate you.
This has gone on so long that even Seeking Alpha is starting to loose its mind!
I an not sure about the rest of you guys but I think all third parties "should exit stage left," let Sirius / Xm and the FCC ( who is suppose to represent the Amercan public but not doing so) close the deal.
Ployboy1 said: "Here's what Mel should do.
Take one spectrum. Turn off 8 million radios, and tell the customers to refer their complaints to the FCC. Like anyone with a fucking brain wants satrad company number 2.
Basically do the deal, and shut XM off."
I agree. He might turn off the Sirius system instead because XM's constellation is newer and has spares but turning off one or the other is the right way to go. Yes one of the 'promises' will be broken but it should be easy enough to place the blame on the FCC.
Martin is impossible to figure--look at his statements of a few months ago--supposedly his staff has drawn up options a month ago. If so why are these meeting going on with new proposals by the day?
As for affect retail that is Xm and Sirius nonsense to try to explain the weakness in the retail performance. It is shear nonsense why would some one on a month to month or even an a year plan not extend. They fact is that their marketing sucks that is why retail at XM is dead. What did their head of marketing market before--ring tones? LOL
Martin is impossible to figure--look at his statements of a few months ago--supposedly his staff has drawn up options a month ago. If so why are these meeting going on with new proposals by the day?
As for affect retail that is Xm and Sirius nonsense to try to explain the weakness in the retail performance. It is shear nonsense why would some one on a month to month or even an a year plan not extend. They fact is that their marketing sucks that is why retail at XM is dead. What did their head of marketing market before--ring tones? LOL
Wizzard...
I assume these can be reprogrammed. Killing the XM side would allow GM and other contracts to be renegotiated. Also, the revenue per sub on Siri is higher. Lastly, XM is damaged goods.
At least 3 million XM subs would convert to the new Sirius overnight. Fuck you FCC, I've got the plan and it involves sticking this deal up your ass!
I copied these comments from someone off the Sirius message board. I do not want to take credit for them, however I thought I would throw them into the mix, the author makes some good points:
As citizens, whether you are opposed to or for the merger, it's time to look at what the FCC is doing here.
Are they the regulatory commission they are supposed to be or aspiring to be a socialistic administrative bureaucracy?
Right to the heart of the matter, where is their authority to insist upon pricing to their specifications? This product is an absolute elective for the consumer. It is a want------not a need!
Further evidence of this dictatorial position is amplified by the fact they seem to be oblivious to the DOJ's favorable decision. Additionally, former FCC chairman Reed Hundt has given a deposition in favor of the merger and explaining in detail why. This is the man who supervised the construction of the sat. radio landscape and the FCC seems to give no more credibility to his opinion than anybody else's.
In cases in the future, will the FCC take this same socialistic controlling position. If they do and succeed, how many more government regulatory agencies will start behaving the same way.
Again, set aside the particulars of siri/xm. This is a citizen issue-----how much can government be allowed to intervene in the matters of citizens and the free course of private enterprise?
It is clear to me that the FCC is assuming authority they should not have.
Oh Dear God. Kevin Martin is such a stud in those glasses.
I've said it before, I'll say it again. The only way this merger is allowed to proceed is after the two cos accept onerous and strict conditions. When the FCC imposes these conditions, you'll see a period of "quiet time" and no grousing by the execs who need to accept the horrible terms in order for the two companies to avoid - for the short term - filing bankruptcy and reorganizing. Also, without a merger, folks like Nate Davis and his VPs won't be able to cash out and be able to talk about how they built XM (even though most of these people had nothing to do with the company, except to get it to where it is today - in the toilet. financially speaking.
If, on the other hand, there is no merger, there will be horrific layoffs at both companies and people who I'm sure waited to bail will be left with nothing but a bankers box to carry out their potted plants. Sirius employees and XM employees - invest in a good sized thumb drive and get your files of the company issued computers. You'll know the layoffs are afoot when you can no longer sign onto your computer or when you see a crew walking up carrying boxes to your desks and offices.
It wil be just like Enron for those old enough to remember, and for those that are too youg, just like what will happen to Bear Stearns or Citigroup.
Good luck folks - I really wish you the best.
Plowboy you understand.
At least 3 million XM subs would convert to the new Sirius overnight
This Sirius can do and maybe that is what the FCC wants to see happen.
Sirius and XM do what the FCC tokd them to do when they got the licence.
That way XM is gone no merger needed.
M&A Researcher has been opposed the merger from the beginning, rating possibliity of success at 20% before DOJ approval, which they never believed would happen. After it did, they called the DOJ ruling wrong and started a rant about how the FCC had to stand up and show their independence, knowing full well the FCC has never ruled against the DOJ. MAR has no credibility and should be ignored.
Why is it taking so long? I suspect Martin wants to make sure he has given everyone a "fair" hearing before he approves it, without major concessions.
As an aside, what Georgetown Partners is asking for is a non starter -- they will never get 20% of the spectrum leased or othewise. If the FCC were to try to impose, Mel has made it pretty clear that he will walk away. Practically, Sirus/XM would not be able to implement ala cart, and other programming plans, in the public interest, if the FCC did grant it. If Martin wanted to kill the merger he could have done it a long, long time ago.
There's an enormous amount of value tied up by the FCC. Sure, when you have that type of power, it's got to be a bit of an ego boost.
The truth of the matter is, the FCC will ultimately act in the best interest of the consumer. As an investor, I feel as though I'm a little boy at Christmas time. The problem is, I can't open presents until mom and dad get out of bed. For crying out loud DAD, wake the F* up!
The fact is, folks, it's coming. The FCC understands the value of the merger will be much greater than all of the value lost during the long wait. Those who have been patient will get to unwrap their present.
In the meantime, to give them the benefit, they may be working out the technical details surrounding the license transfer, interoperability and assigning those donated channels, per Mel's VERY generous offer. Keep in mind, if conditions are too restrictive, ALL the spectrum will remain in the hands of Sirius and XM respectively.
The FCC is most likely working as fast as they can. Not only will channels be donated "reallocated", per Mel's offer, but the FCC will get their Al La Carte.
Given that the FCC is simply using due diligence in completing this license transfer, it truly may be taking much time. Something is going on within this organization, despite the perceived silence. Simply bending to self-interested politicians is far too simplistic.
Extract something from this post, if you will, it's just my ideas after giving this issue some long, hard thought. Simply opinion.
P.S. I know who is getting the payoff with this slow process -- All those underwriters selling mad amounts of call options that continue to expire worthless!
Here is why this takes so long (In order of validity).
1. The FCC did little while waiting for the DOJ.
2. FCC Commissioners are kissing ass for the Democratic takeover. They want to hold their jobs and remain on the Governmental teat. Since many oppose, let's make it look tough.
3. To delay is to appear judicious and thoughtful.
They could give a fuck less about common business ethics, delays, hearings, stockholders, Satrad or the public. Very much like 95% of Washington, what they do is all about them and their livelihood.
Cramer does not believe the merger will go through...
I believe... Bush is behind it, and he has prolonged Kevin to expose the Democrats for what they are, dum basses. It's all about the next congress... AG's, etc...
I mean, really? How could the FCC have more power than the DOJ? wow!
This country is down the toilet and justice means nothing.
Hey DOJ, Kevin thinks very little of you and believes he holds the cards. I think I hear him laughing right now...
"Ha! Justice. I am above the law and I have the backing of big daddy Bush!" Nah Nah Nah.
I guarantee that Bush and his evil cohorts are involved in this ridiculous mess. He has screwed up everything else in this country, so why not lend his ineptness and total lack of concern for the American public to this matter. This delay proves that money is indeed the root of all evil. This country is going down the toilet and you can thank George W Bush and his band of merry bandits that he conspires with for pulling the flush handle!
This country is going down the toilet
That is true but it is Congress that is the problem. Dingle wants to add a .50 cent tax to Gas.
They are all for sending jobs overseas and do not care that many people will not have the money for heat or eat this winter.
The more I watch the more I think the FCC is useless.
Tom Hicks- A clear channel exec as well as a former business partner with Bush. In fact it is common knowledge that Bush made his first millions with Hicks.
Should be looked into.
Do you really think the FCC will allow this merger to go away because of some nig nog named Chester looking for a handout?
They've been dying to get a la carte for so long and this is finally the chance they have for someone to actually do it. They know that Sirius and XM will just say, "Fuck it." and walk away if they take too much spectrum. As a result, they'll lose a la carte for good...not to mention XM and Sirius will raise prices soon as standalone companies pissing off the consumer even more.
I think the FCC is negotiating with Sirius and XM to get this done while still looking like they at least made them concede a little. I don't see them letting them walk away from the merger over Chester.
Actually if they were interested in flexing authority they could approve the deal. Because right now they look like they have too much outside influence. And anybody with the tiniest gripe can get their attention.
DOJ right now looks like the more competent decisive group because in the end common sense reign over anything else.
The reason it is taking so long?? it is obvious to me, THEY ARE RETARDS!! Actually what I think was supposed to happen is that the F.C.C. were thinking was that the D.O.J. were going to say no to the merger.. remember way back in March they said they were drafting documents and that the Tuesday following when the D.O.J. made their ruling for the merger that the F.C.C. wasn't ready for that.. and so now they have to cover their asses and make sure it is an air tight ruling otherwise there will be law suits and tie this up in courts the rest of this century.. at the rate this merger approval is going, this alone may be an eighty two year deal in itself...
Hmm.. seems to me that the primary beneficiaries of this delay are the NAB, RAB and the large corporate entities that make-up those two trade orgs. Also appears to me that chairman Martin is out on his as* with the next administration no matter what. Has anyone wondered if chairman Martin doesn't possibly have a nice, cushy, fat-paying gig lined up with one of the aforementioned groups after his term, provided that he just drag his feet and never approve the XM/Sirius merger? It will be interesting to see where he, and his cronies, are working in a couple of years.
This merger is Dead, DEad, DEAd, DEAD!!! Lot's of Sirius folks to lose jobs. Lot's of XM folks to lose jobs. Retail dead - why they're still supporting retail is beyond me. At least XM cut Wal*Mart and its mall program. Those had to be killing it. If Circuit City and Best Buy aren't producing, why continue to support that.
XM at Indy 500 - BFD.
Sirius at NFL Draft - BFD
XM barley a blip at NHL. Nothing at the MLB Indians game. Cut the marketing teams at each company - those people are FAILURES. We know who they are - no need to mention names.
Cut loses - Cut staff - Cut unnecessary programs. Don't do it with a scalpel - do it with a butcher knife.
You people are all crazy.
FIRE THAT FUCKING ASSHOLE TODAY!!!
KEVIN MARTIN SHOULD NOT BE EMPLOYED!!! HE NEEDS TO GO TO JAIL!!!
Just look at the smug, punk ass, skirt wearing, balls shrinking face; a picture tells a thousand words! We have a government where agencies and those that allegedly head them can just decide to do NOTHING. Kevin Martin, who's pansy puss I was refering to, evidently can stall this merger decision indefinitely while having to answer to nobody! This shows that the FCC is a severely flawed commission ( con mission is more like it ) and satellite radio, despite complete compliance with every merger protocol now gets to rot to death. If nothing else, this merger attempt has exposed how incredibly corrupt our government is. Many thousands of people are being hurt because of this fiasco but you could never tell looking at Martins pompous, arrogent, soulless mug. Just another shameful chapter in Bush's pathetic legacy.
actually I think the f.c.c. is just masturbating.. it's what they do best.. just look at him... you think he's married?? do you think if he is married he gets any??... do you think if he gets any she... wait, that blows my theory...