Jacoby remains "cautious" on (but doesn't dispute) latest Sirius-XM info

Friday, November 30, 2007 at 2:08 PM
Tags: 2, XM

S&MDespite a report from Bear Stearns analyst Robert Peck, who predicts that a DOJ decision could arrive as soon as today or Monday, Bank of America analyst Jonathan Jacoby advises clients to remain "cautious" - deal or no deal.

Jacoby has remained as the devil's advocate throughout the merger proceedings, which is a good thing because it helps keep some of the more irrationally exuberant investors grounded (to a degree). Historically he's been very skeptical of the merger prospects (putting chances of approval roughly around ~30%). The interesting thing in his most recent research note, though, is that Jacoby does not dispute what Peck is reporting.

Much of the Bank of America analyst's conclusions have been based on information from DC contacts, but we don't hear about them in this note. Instead, Jacoby brings to light the high hurdles that XM-Sirius need to overcome to get approval (and there's no denying that this isn't your rubber-stamp kind of merger). If the deal is not approved, he points to significant downside. And even if the deal is approved, he feels there's not much upside.

"However, we are not ‘naïve.’ We think investors will most likely run these stocks post-merger approval," Jacoby notes.

To me, it's a significant development when the naysayers stop saying "nay."

Peck and Jacoby have been on two sides of the coin for this merger. With no significant information coming from BofA's sources disputing the information of Bear Stearns, well, I'd say that's pretty telling.

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Comments

Oh come on Ryan! We need some more negativity from Jacoby! Its not the same for us optimists without the Jacoby negativity! Damn!

IF the merger is approved- not only was he wrong about the chance of approval (30%), but he also said he thought any decision would come next year towards the end of the first quarter, didn't he?

I almost feel sorry for Jacoby. He was just dead wrong about XM and now he may be just as wrong about the merger and the merger timing. Why would anyone pay to listen to this guy again?

Love the new graphic Ryan... S&M Satellite Radio!

Mr. Jacoby at one time was advising clients that XM was going to go from $24 to $43, and instead, the stock tanked. I googled Mr. Jacoby, and he covers mainly the mainstream media companies. I have never heard him participate in the Sirius Quartery Conference call in the Q&A sessions, yet he has been critical of Sirius from the beginning.

As for his "sources", it has come to light that Goldman Sachs has as of this week come out and has also said they believe the merger approval is at 30%. The last time Mr. Jacoby put out a research note, the note was picked apart on the internet by a columnist, whose article was in excess of 4,000 words. In a nutshell, Mr. Jacoby's arguments were shown to be false, filled with inconsistencies, and outright nonsensical.

Not sure what his agenda is, but Mr. Jacoby should have no further credibility with Wall Street; in fact, Mr. Jacoby in a note to his clients, Mr. Jacboy stated that all of Wall Street was wrong, and that HE was right. He has been wrong from the start on this one, and now, he isnt disputing what Mr. Peck has to say. Why am I not surprised.

Mr. Jacoby at one time was advising clients that XM was going to go from $24 to $43, and instead, the stock tanked. I googled Mr. Jacoby, and he covers mainly the mainstream media companies. I have never heard him participate in the Sirius Quartery Conference call in the Q&A sessions, yet he has been critical of Sirius from the beginning.

As for his "sources", it has come to light that Goldman Sachs has as of this week come out and has also said they believe the merger approval is at 30%. The last time Mr. Jacoby put out a research note, the note was picked apart on the internet by a columnist, whose article was in excess of 4,000 words. In a nutshell, Mr. Jacoby's arguments were shown to be false, filled with inconsistencies, and outright nonsensical.

Not sure what his agenda is, but Mr. Jacoby should have no further credibility with Wall Street; in fact, Mr. Jacoby in a note to his clients, Mr. Jacboy stated that all of Wall Street was wrong, and that HE was right. He has been wrong from the start on this one, and now, he isnt disputing what Mr. Peck has to say. Why am I not surprised.

>> I have never heard him participate in the Sirius Quartery Conference call in the Q&A sessions

That's easy to explain. Sirius hates Jacoby. Just ask Hooper Stevens. He used to work with him at both SunTrust and Bank of America.

Sirius controls who talks on those Q&A sessions, that's why you don't hear him.

SM stands for SIRIUS MISTAKE! I am hoping this train wreck is a no go as I my just have to subscribe to I tunes for my music fix.

I predict the SIRIUS MISTAKE will not be allowed to happen and SIRIUS will just have to go off and declare bankruptcy.

Neither of these companies will end up declaring bankruptcy, but both will end up becoming a subsidiaries of other larger conglomerates if the merger fails. You can take that to the bank. These types of 'service business' are cash machines once thoroughly established, issue is that it take a long time to establish these types of business models (and the resulting cash burn is enormous, just look @ your wireless telco's). So, if you want them to remain independent, it will more than likely require that they be together. If you want them to remain separate, but not independent, hope the merger doesn't go through. A merger IS the lesser of 2 evils.

I fear if Mel has too much power we will end up with no more than nation wide FM radio complete with commercials on the music channels that by the way will have short hits based FM style play lists to appeal to the masses to make more money, problem is if they do this, it is far away from what satellite radio was meant to be. For those of us that have been subscribers from the beginning this is an absolute disaster, and I pray it dies a horrible death.

Why is Jacoby still playing his same game while BOA has been accumulating Siri?
Bank of America increased their position in Sirius DURING Q-3 BY 243%!
Seems Johnny wants to make right on his XM calls.

While the big wigs are playing carve up the companies, they are trashing what was a great thing for profit not caring about the listeners, or if they do they have a pretty twisted perception of what it we the subs want.

LAPTOP GAMER or should I say XM Dude. Your post here and XM 411 are always the same. Bitch, bitch, bitch.....I'm going to tell you a secret. Please do not tell anybody...If you don't like what XM has turned into, YOU CAN CANCEL YOUR SUBSCRIPTION. That's the beauty of this. Nobody is making you subscribe. Go buy your IPOD or slacker (you keep saying you will) already and STFU

Remember boys this isn't a done deal yet. And hope it never is!

i swear to god. all you XM people do is sit here and bitch about how much SM satellite raio's gonna suck. STFU already. just like zERO POINT ZERO said, then fucking cancel the sub.

they're not going to make a bunch of changes straight away. they can't for fear of upsetting everyone.

Maybe it's must me, but it looks like the majority of XM subscribers are against the merger, but SIRI subscribers (like me) are for it.

yeah because if it wasn't for XM wanting to merge Sirius would go bankrupt manno whatever the fuck your name is.

>>> Maybe it's must me, but it looks like the majority of XM subscribers are against the merger, but SIRI subscribers (like me) are for it.

No, it isn't just you.

Perhaps you should ask yourself why that is.

The obvious answer is that XM subscribers tend to be pleased with the service while Sirius subscribers tend to be less so.

[The obvious answer is that XM subscribers tend to be pleased with the service while Sirius subscribers tend to be less so]

Could be..Or maybe Sirius subs are realistic about the chances of both of the companies going out of business without a merger.

Laptop Writes: "I fear if Mel has too much power we will end up with no more than nation wide FM radio complete with commercials on the music channels that by the way will have short hits based FM style play lists to appeal to the masses to make more money, problem is if they do this, it is far away from what satellite radio was meant to be. For those of us that have been subscribers from the beginning this is an absolute disaster, and I pray it dies a horrible death."

Yes, and after they do that, you are going to cuss every time they charge your credit card because the law says you cannot cancel the service because they are a monopoly right?

Everyone says this and it is a fucking joke. You think that XM and Sirius are going to merge to become something noone will listen to? Yeah, that makes a ton of sence. They will go out of business even quicker than without a merger that way. XM and Sirius are not REQUIREMENTS to LIFE. You CAN cancel, and people have done it before!! **waits for gasps to stop** Thats right! If they raise prices, you can cancel. If they screw up the content, you can cancel. If they start throwing commercials on every channel.... YOU CAN FUCKING CANCEL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Now quit your crying and listen to your radio. If you dont like it, CANCEL IT. There is a ton of competition out there for SatRad... pick one.

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Had a bad day at work (can ya tell?)

Hey guys new here... Just wanted to say that I LOVE THE SAT RADIOS AND WOULD LOVE TO SEEM THEM MERGE!!! I currently with XM and cant wait for the merger to get going... and hope it does!!! FM RADIO SUCKS!!! Thats my thoughts and im sticking to it!!! I think the merger will only help the two companies to really take this medium to its full potiential. SO KEEP POSITIVE.

Hey guys new here... Just wanted to say that I LOVE THE SAT RADIOS AND WOULD LOVE TO SEEM THEM MERGE!!! I currently with XM and cant wait for the merger to get going... and hope it does!!! FM RADIO SUCKS!!! Thats my thoughts and im sticking to it!!! I think the merger will only help the two companies to really take this medium to its full potential. SO KEEP POSITIVE. I hear everyone sooo damm negitive about this... Its really disapointing that we cant all get along!!!!

Hey guys new here... Just wanted to say that I LOVE THE SAT RADIOS AND WOULD LOVE TO SEEM THEM MERGE!!! I currently with XM and cant wait for the merger to get going... and hope it does!!! FM RADIO SUCKS!!! Thats my thoughts and im sticking to it!!! I think the merger will only help the two companies to really take this medium to its full potential. SO KEEP POSITIVE. I hear everyone sooo damm negitive about this... Its really disapointing that we cant all get along!!!!

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