Never one to avoid taking sides, John Dvorak has written a piece in MarketWatch asking for the Sirius and XM merger to be approved "immediately."
Dvorak, of course, has been a long time Apple-hater and loves to stir up the Apple fanboy bees nest by saying outrageous things (see this video for why). Does that lessen his credibility when it comes to this opinion piece? I'm not sure, but it's a nice and clear breakdown for the everyday Joe Sixpack as to why these two companies should merge.
Here's a key snippet:
At this point there are only four scenarios:1. The two companies can continue to bleed money as separate entities and eventually go broke.
2. The two companies can continue to bleed money until one goes broke before the other -- leaving one left to create the monopoly everyone fears. The last firm standing may be so damaged by this that it, eventually, goes broke too.
3. The two companies can merge and still go broke.
4. The two companies can merge and eventually find the right financial and programming formulas to turn a profit.
Most of the outlooks are grim, and it's silly to imagine that these two companies fighting to the death are competing in such a way that benefits consumers. The public does not benefit from a situation where competition will kill one or both of the players.
It's an interesting thought, especially from the satrad-fanboy standpoint, to think that either of these companies will die without the merger, but that's exactly what Dvorak is saying. Adding, that "the monopoly argument is actually a joke."
Of course, it could just be Ol' Johnny being outrageous again hoping to bait others, but then again, he could just have a point. No matter how outrageous it may seem.
He conveniently omitted the option that BOTH COMPANIES say is most likely if the merger is not approved: That they will continue to thrive and compete and eventually become profitable.
Now, I don't know whether they are lying about that or not. But as long as both companies claim they can be successful individually, it is incumbent on EVERYONE to assume that is the case before handing them a monopoly that cannot be undone.
DVORAK probably needs to stick with the business he knows (although, his track record there isn't pristine, either....)
^Another deluded XM/0.0 fanboi who thinks that XM can ever compete again with the noncontent they currently provide. Keep crying. You know that XM is losing subscribers and losing the war to Howard and Sirius. Either way 0.0 are gone. They get bought out by Sirius and Howard and Mel make sure to innoculate us from the virus, or CBS buys XM at auction and doesn't renew their satrad contract just like they are about to do with their testicle contract.
XM and Sirius' PR machine strikes again. Unfortunately, the companies refuse to tell the DOJ and FCC the truth, if its the truth, that they need to merge to survive. If they did, then the equation for deciding whether the merger is okay under antitrust law completely changes. But so long as they continue to tell Wall Street and guys like this one thing, and the government another, the problem will continue.
Why do arguments about Sirius and XM always revolve around Howard, and the Opie and Anthony show? Were talking about a total of three channels combined on both services aren't we? So, your telling that people don't subscribe to Sirius for the NBA, NFL or NASCAR, and people don't pay $12.95 a month to XM for MLB, the NHL and all of the college sports, not to mention all of the talk radio choices?
Of course they do. Currently I have XM, but in the past I have paid $25/month for both and I can count the minutes on one hand that I have ever listened to any of these shows. They just don't appeal to me. But I do listen to the "The Show" on XM175 almost ever day, along with ever single other show that XM has on Home Plate.
I get tired of the Howard and Mel/Sirius, XM/Opie and Anthony arguments. Isn't this topic bigger than that?
who says they didnt tell the feds that they need this to survive???
Lindsay Lohan's opinion would be about as relevant
I wonder how much Sirius stock Dvorak owns. Saving the value of Sirius stock is the only reason I see for the merger.
or 5 they could merge and still be managed with the same "drunken sailor on leave" management skills that have gotten them to this point... and more than likely go bankrupt anyway... what the merger will also do is get Howard more subscribers to his show so he can say see what he was able to do?? double the subscribers and he gets yet another bonu$.
This leaves out possibilities 5 and 6:
5. As Stack Pointer says, both companies become profitable.
6. One or both companies go broke, and another company buys their assets at the bankruptcy auction. Without any prior debt, the new company would have a much better chance to become profitable. The only people who lose in that scenario are the fat cat investment companies that own stock, who are the most vocal proponents of the merger.
I am an XM subscriber, and I promise you after a merger prices WILL go up and all the music channels will SURPIRSE have 20 minutes of commercials each hour. They can "promise" all they want, as soon as they merge the government has no say in the operation of this private company.
Or one comnpany can go broke leaving the other to pick up all their customers. Thus achieving the same number of subs as the merger would, only without the merger. Now you also have the failed company's spectrum that could be picked up by another sat radio start-up. This guy is a speculating boob.
I'm with Jim. I have been an XM subscriber for about 3 years now and haven't once tuned into O&A. But Jim says he listens to "The Show," and that makes him an obvious tool. "The Beat" is where it's at Jim. Charlie Steiner would decapitate both Kevin Kennedy and Rob Dibble in a steel cage matchup.
There, we've brought the typical argument to another channel on the satrad dial. (I don't think you're a tool Jim, I listen to "The Show" as well.)
Problem with the proposed merger is that it has created the public perception that it's necessary, thus stock in both companies will take a dive if it fails. Plus we have two companies spending beaucoups bucks on the merger instead of on content subscribers are paying for. And that doesn't even count spending big bucks for celebrities like Martha Stewart, Oprah, Howard, etc.
I'd rather have 20 decent entertainers at moderate prices than one or two high-priced ones. Increases overall quality that way. Although I would enjoy CBC and NPR if the merger succeeds. Since they get some government funding, neither should have exclusive deals.
I'm not quite sure how anyone can possibly sit here right now and make the argument that either company can and will thrive without a merge or doing something else drastic. The fact is that both companies are losing money at an obscene rate and so far, it has nothing to do with gains and losses in subscribers so don't start quoting quarterly subscription numbers here and whether they're up or down.
Sat-Rad is battling not only each other but countless other entertainment options in cars and homes now and car companies are starting to realize that people are wanting more ways to integrate their ipods and other MP3 players into their audio systems leaving little time to worry about a Sat-Rad subscription or justify the monthly costs involved with either company.
I think Dvorak is right on the money here with his assessment of the situation and is probably even more correct with his opinion that this will not even guarantee survival for a new combined company but as an XM subscriber and a subscriber that wants to be able to get Notre Dame football games and the NFL on my XM unit, I am anxiously awaiting this mergers approval and also hoping that it's exactly the kickstart that Sat-Rad will need to thrive.
If satradio can't survive without a merger, it's not going to be able to compete and survive with one. Just because the company's bigger doesn't make it any better able to advertise its product, get the message out there and provide a service people want. Maybe not enough people want it and never will. No merger is going to fix that.
Dvorak? Is that old goof still around? He was busy writing opinionated computer columns when I bought my first PC (a GENUINE IBM-PC) in 1985!! I see he still is full of ..... well, you know.