In a interview with the New York Post, Sirius XM Radio Inc. CEO Mel Karmazin said that, "We're going to be the most successful company in radio. We're going to be bigger than Clear Channel because we're growing and they're going the other way."And terrestrial execs aren't doubting Mel's capabilities.
"Mel is a voracious competitor," said Joel Hollander, the former head of CBS Radio, who worked under Karmazin for 22 years. "When he has a prize in his sights he goes all out for it. He either wants to be the king of the hill or he wants to take his chips and go home."
"Mel is singularly the smartest media operator out there, regardless of what kind of media we are talking about," said Citadel Broadcasting CEO Farid Suleman, a Karmazin protégé who must now face off against his mentor. "I wish he would go run a big media company instead of Sirius."
The NAB doesn't join in on the sentiment, still licking its wounds from the 18 month long ordeal.
"We are completely confident that free local radio will continue to thrive," said NAB spokesman Dennis Wharton. "Given the stock-market crash of Sirius XM, the real question now is whether satellite radio can sustain a viable business."
True True....
"Given the stock-market crash of Sirius XM, the real question now is whether satellite radio can sustain a viable business."
Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin knows radio, but does he know satradio?
The NAB continues its rehtoric... Even after they lost the fight.. ROTFLMAO
Although I do agree ... it remains to be seen if Sat Rad can earn a dime, IMO they are not in any danger of going away, Seperate or together as one. The question is if they could get from CFBE to sustainable profits for share holders.. thats the 10,000 dollar question.
Oh yea....
GO TO HELL MEL
I'm enthusiastic about Mel's projection. Personally, I'd love to see Clear Channel go down. Some would say that Sirius XM would be the same thing. But not really, Sirius-XM produces stations of every genre, whereas Clear Channel just puts out Top 40 stations left and right. I'm in Philadelphia and there are about 5 rap/Top 40 stations, owned by the big guys. Only one commercial jazz station, and it plays that Sade 'smooth jazz' stuff. I like it, but it's not as good as REAL jazz, which Sirius has a commercial free station full of.
"Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin knows radio, but does he know satradio?"
AC,
I picture you as a 450lb fat fucking stinking slob with hundreds of McDonald's wrappers engulfing you while you sit in a worn out 70's style recliner. Get off off your fat fucking ass and go for a long walk off a short pier.
God, what a colossal TOOL.
The radio industry completely screwed themselves by playing "I want to be the BIGGEST" game. 1998 play book. It failed then. It's failing now.
Now Mel's gonna do for SatRad what he did for Terrestrial?
Fuck.
How bout just trying to be BETTER than Clear Channel Mel?
How lame.
frankrizzo ROTFLMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Take CC down and give radio some sirius competition!
I wouldn't be so sure about that--the masses want tight playlists and familiarity--the question is will they PAY for it? Also, terr rad will adapt and offer more choices (bet on it)--plus, as it is, FM's sound quality is better than sat rad, and HD Radio blows it out of the water--that is another weakness that can be attacked--
Price is the magic bullet here--there is no way Mel will achieve his goal at 13/month--I know Ryan had an article a while back suggesting sat rad be free--now if they could lower the price point or make it free, and add 1-2 minutes of commercials an hour, or hourly sponsorships--or targeted product placement, well then Mel could be on his way--They also need to beef up their online offerings to position themselves for WiMax.
I'm sticking with Mel! I truly believe he is a man of his word.... unlike some of the other CEOs I know about!
What have I got to lose? I just need the stock to stay down just a few more weeks.....
Who knows, maybe Google with buy SiriusXM. I sure HOPE SO!
I'm not pumping---I am just wishiing, and hoping, and praying, and affirming!
I need to get the money back that I lost on that worthless EXODUS STOCK!
RE: " I sticking with Mel."
Yes I said IT!
I accidentally signed in as an anonymous coward. I have nothing to hide or be afraid of.....
I love the commet at the end by NAB..."Given the stock-market crash of Sirius XM, the real question now is whether satellite radio can sustain a viable business."
mmmm.......... then why did you spend millions and millions opseing a meger? Your scared.....
He must of not checked the stock today the fact that it was up 10+ cents
The NAB is a Joke:
FOX, NBC, CBS and ABC left the NAB in recent years as it became clear that networks and independent station owners often had conflicting priorities. Not having the networks and their owned-and-operated stations as members made it impossible for the NAB to present the face of a unified industry before members of Congress. In other words the NAB is becoming a toothless dog.... all bark and No Bite. The Sirius-XM merger proves, they are useless, and the BEER salesman they hired to replace Eddie Fritts is also a joke. This is why we see more responses from Wharton than Rehr lately. It is over boys, I hope you saved a little cash, now the RIAA is coming after you for royalty payments to the artists.....ROFLMFAO.... hehehe
"They were thiiiiiiiis big!!!"
Didn't Hitler say "We're funna be bigger than Stalin!!!" or some mess like that?
God. Don't u just HATE the smug arrogance of the NAB. They all but came out and gloated about how their plan all along was to delay the merger until the companies bleed to death.
I think it'll be a rough 3rd quarter, since Mel and Sirius are JUST beginning to look at XMs books....and interoperable radios won't be out till next year. But alot of changes will be made in the 3rd quarter that will finally set in motion the synergies.
The 4th quarter will begin to show real guidance, and the 1st quarter of 09 will really kick it into high gear. I feel from that point forward the pps will begin to rise significantly.
But for now, with over 300,000,000 shares short and the hedge funds running rampant wit the naked shorting, we are in for a battle. I know longs are already battle fatigued....but this is our D-Day. This is our chance to storm the short beach and attack.
Difference between terrestrial and satellite radio? Satellite radio has programming directors (PDs) who have considerable pull. General managers (GMs) aren't rampant, plaguing them for revenue who couldn't care less about content like on terrestrial. I know you all are concerned about the tightening of playlists. Rest assured, you're not going to have 68 channels of FM-esque music. On FM, the bottom line is revenue based on a top40/CHR format - these are the ones that pull your "average" listener. These are the ones the advertisers seek.
On FM radio, a typical PD - GM discussion follows as such:
PD - "On the agenda today, playlist content... What should we do to appease our listeners?"
GM - "Play music. That's not my concern though. My concern is how are we going to optimize our revenue?"
PD - "....."
GM - "I think we need to play songs that will get advertisers wanting to pick us - we need to keep to the hits. We need to play Katy Perry, Lupe Fiasco, T-Pain, and Kid Rock. Sound good? Please include those in heavy rotations; that would be great, ok? Thanks!"
PD - "Ok"
On satellite radio, you remove the advertiser element.
PD - "How can I make this playlist good?"
GM - "........... (May not exist)"
PD - "I can do what I can do and hope for the best. I come from terrestrial, so I am used to tightening playlists for advertising revenue, but this isn't optimal, and I will try my best to tailor to everyone, knowing that there are 67 other music channels to choose."
Give it time. Terrestrial radio is an established business model which has been around for a long time. Satellite radio will catch on to what they can do best, in due time. I have no doubt in my mind that satellite radio can surpass Clear Channel.
Mel already has a way to make money from 100% of the
satellite radios, even those that are not current subscribers.
http://www.rapidpat.com/backpage.cfm?PAGENO=0&TYPE=SIRI8
Please pay attention to who patented this process.
And now look at who has been supplying Sirius' chip sets for their
radios.
http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/06-01-2006/0004372104&EDATE=
If Clear Channel has a market cap of approximately 18 billion dollars
because they have a few radio stations in most of the markets across
the U.S., what would Sirius XM be worth when the company begins selling
advertising on 25 or even 50 radio stations/channels in EVERY market
in the U.S.? Using this patented method, Sirius XM will be making
money from every satellite radio, even if that radio is not a paying
subscriber.
The following is a recorded phone call to the National Association of Broadcasters:
http://sirius-satellite-radio-investors.googlegroups.com/web/NAB+is+the+Matrix.mp3?gda=S85GtkcAAACDCPnvNstPeOVNAvfBnLJjs7Is607ueXAKpCcUDRbdfkZHP51i9SswtjZkiCuS2mDxTJP8emms7jT3KW8EP5iveV4duv6pDMGhhhZdjQlNAw
Aging mafioso Hymen Roth whispered to Michael Corleone in Godfather Two: "Were' bigger than US Steel".
In my 25+ years as a small investor, I have never been more excited about a stock like I am about SiriusXM.........Now Mel, let's make some money!!
SiriusXM presents an amazing technical platform to deliver all kinds of content and technology...
I'm thinking far beyond radio...
"Let me check you for boob cancer Howie!!"
There's no question about Mel's track record on terrestrial. He is a goliath. However, he is one of the biggest reasons that terrestrial radio turned itself into what it is today. Never forget that.
The question is whether he will "FM-ize" Satellite Radio to make his money.
Some of you insist he won't, but what is to stop him from doing so? Mel insists he won't put commercials on the music channels, fair enough, but what is to stop him from saving money by tightening playlists? He needs to attract the masses, who unfortunately, seem to like the same old songs that are on terrestrial (man, I hate comparing SDARS to terrestrial).
There are some tough times ahead, and not just for you people still brave enough to be investing.
>> In my 25+ years as a small investor, I have never been more excited about a stock like I am about SiriusXM.........Now Mel, let's make some money!!
This is hilarious.
That anyone is still thinking like this after Sirius has all but destroyed satellite radio!
Oh well. At least Mel has goals. He wants to be the next Clear Channel.
I have no doubt that this is true, but the question becomes is this before or after a reorganization is necessary?
SIXM is very close to the edge of no return. I can tell you that the results are either going to be stunning or disastrous and will be determined by a potential world economic collapse or another dip in the equity market that could bring the down into the 9000's yet this year. Sirius's health has little to do with Sirius at this point. Few appreciate this and thereby the divergence of opinion about it's future.... GS has been VERY accurate.
It is 50-60% assured that GS will be correct on the 1.00 price before year's end. Does it go to zero or 8.00 after that....I wish I knew.
"It is over boys, I hope you saved a little cash, now the RIAA is coming after you for royalty payments to the artists.....ROFLMFAO.... hehehe"
"Everybody wants more royalty money"
"The Radio Music License Committee (RMLC) has just begun a new round of negotiations and we are told that ASCAP is now wanting broadcasters to have a second music license to cover HD2 (HD3, etc.) signals. ASCAP’s negotiators say they should receive fee payments for those new stations because the only reason most aren’t producing revenues is that broadcasters have chosen to run them commercial-free in an effort to build audiences for the future. When RMLC representatives responded that the stations are mostly running commercial free because there are hardly any HD receivers in public hands, ASCAP hauled out a Parks Associates study mentioned in an RBR/TVBR Intelligence Brief predicting that there would be 30 million HD receivers in the marketplace by 2012."
http://www.rbr.com/radio/8361.html
"Radio: Clear Channel's Buyer's Morose"
http://gormanmediablog.blogspot.com/2008/02/radio-clear-channels-buyers-morose.html
Yup, they are going after terrestrial radio's wonder-boy! LMFAO! I wonder, who has the largest cock - Mel, Howard, or Mark Mays? What tools...
we should all short clear channel
I hope that Sirius gets bigger than Clear Channel, but Sirius currently has 1.49 billion shares outstanding @ $1.42 while Clear Channel only has 497.88 million shares @ $35.88. For a balanced comparison Sirius has to reach $12.03 to equal Clear Channel. As a Sirius investor I would love to see that. Sirius clearly has its work cut out in order to EXCEED that valuation.
Paul in FL,
1.49 billion shares was BEFORE sirius issued 4.6 shares for every XM share. XM had aproximatly 320 million shares. So call it 2.962 billion shares.
So thats a market cap of 4.144 billion
With CC at 17.86 billion
This makes SiriusXM need to atain a PPS of 6.03 to match CC's market cap.
Who cares??? all i want to know is if Opie and Anthony have been resigned. all this other garbage is meaningless.
all i want to know is if Opie and Anthony have been resigned
Right the important things for intelligent listeners.
"1.49 billion shares was BEFORE sirius issued 4.6 shares for every XM share. XM had aproximatly 320 million shares. So call it 2.962 billion shares. This makes SiriusXM need to attain a PPS of 6.03 to match CC's market cap."
Jeff,
I got the 1.49 billion sares from the AOL stock quote page for Sirius. Apparently, they have not updated the outstanding share figure to reflect the merger. Thanks for bringing that to my attention. A PPS of 6.03 seems more reasonable to reach in the not too distant future than over 12. I would have been a filty rich man at 12. Got to make a call to the Bentley dealer to cancel my order for the convertible.
the hell with john edwards,when will someone find evidence these two are sleeping together.
"Let me check you for boob cancer Howie!!"
Posted by: Mel Karmazin | August 12, 2008 8:23 AM
Best....Caption.....Ever!
ROFLMAO!
... and where is my Sirius/XM iPhone Web App? I want both XM and Sirius on one app. Is it really THAT HARD? Come on!
Sirius/XM ever at $6/share? Are you fucking kidding. I hope your kids didn't want to go to college.
What a remarkable BS artist this guy is. He is delusional if he thinks this outfit is going to have the mass of a Clear Channel anytime in the next 25 years! He needs to take an anti-depressant and have a look at the hard facts. This company is on life-support, swimming in debt. I suppose it's all right to blow smoke like this to give investors a warm and fuzzy feeling, but the harsh reality is much different, especially with a recession looming just ahead.
I saw this from Goldman Sachs a few days ago:
"While the consensus of his Wall Street peers is that Sirius XM will add 2.9 million subscribers in 2009, Wienkes thinks the number will be “2.1 million at most.”
“We think the retail satellite radio market remains and will remain weak and the increasing gross OEM penetration and gross subscriber additions have up until now masked the rising underlying churn. We believe subscriber growth has passed its inflection point as churn is now on track to jump to approximately 2.7% per month, or +31% of the base on an annualized basis, with expectations for long run churn in the 2.7-3.0% range,” Wienkes wrote. "
This same analyst pegged SIXM at about .45 cents a share as the real value.
Looks like Mel has to worry more about churn and digging out of the hole before worrying about becoming bigger than Clear Channel.
"While the consensus of his Wall Street peers is that Sirius XM will add 2.9 million subscribers in 2009, Wienkes thinks the number will be “2.1 million at most.”
“We think the retail satellite radio market remains and will remain weak and the increasing gross OEM penetration and gross subscriber additions have up until now masked the rising underlying churn. We believe subscriber growth has passed its inflection point as churn is now on track to jump to approximately 2.7% per month, or +31% of the base on an annualized basis, with expectations for long run churn in the 2.7-3.0% range,” Wienkes wrote. "This same analyst pegged SIXM at about .45 cents a share as the real value.
Looks like Mel has to worry more about churn and digging out of the hole before worrying about becoming bigger than Clear Channel.
---
If his assumptions of 2.7% churn monthly were ever to become true, SIXM would be losing a net 2.1 million subs annually, as of today. I think it's safe to say that Winky is full of shit and trying to pull her down. Regarding .45 in real value, based on 3.2 billion shares and a net 2.2 billion in debt (minus cash) does he suggest that a company with 2.4B in sales with 15% growth and a fucking monopoly is worth ONLY 2.7 billion dollar max? ... Come on Winky.. you've had some damn lucky calls driven by the market, but now you're simply getting silly and losing your credibility.
WTF Winky, why not call Sirius at -.10 and get it over with?
You're done son.
If his assumptions of 2.7% churn monthly were ever to become true, SIXM would be losing a net 2.1 million subs annually, as of today. I think it's safe to say that Winky is full of shit and trying to pull her down. Regarding .45 in real value, based on 3.2 billion shares and a net 2.2 billion in debt (minus cash) does he suggest that a company with 2.4B in sales with 15% growth and a fucking monopoly is worth ONLY 2.7 billion dollar max? ... Come on Winky.. you've had some damn lucky calls driven by the market, but now you're simply getting silly and losing your credibility.
WTF Winky, why not call Sirius at -.10 and get it over with?
You're done son.
Posted by: PLOWBOY SAYETH | August 12, 2008 7:37 PM
----
Wait a minute. Aren't you the Plowboy who keeps touting about GS being right? Didn't you also tout that SIXM is going to be worth some $18+ Billion in a few short years?
I think your assessments are just as ludicrous.
Why not just call SIXM worth $50 a share and get it over with.
You're done son.
Sirius is going to 1.00 per share.. not .45 and it will be sold in 2009 or will be forced to file. NOT because of what Sirius has or has not done, but because of a pending worldwide market crash.
Had Sirius made it ( and still might if the worldwide markets don't crash which I think they will) my original outlook of 5.50 per share and a 15-18B cap in 2015 is fully valid.
Good luck to longs, but I'm shorting oils, materials, markets and finance...
Sirius is going to 1.00 per share.. not .45 and it will be sold in 2009 or will be forced to file. NOT because of what Sirius has or has not done, but because of a pending worldwide market crash.
Had Sirius made it ( and still might if the worldwide markets don't crash which I think they will) my original outlook of 5.50 per share and a 15-18B cap in 2015 is fully valid.
Good luck to longs, but I'm shorting oils, materials, markets and finance...
Hopefully, in this case, bigger means better.
And if that isn't the most captionable picture in the world.
Listen to Mel talk to investors and his new company (audio & video)
better speech than Bush ever gave
http://www.sirius.com/siriusxmradio/
Crude oil is in free-fall and the credit crunch has run its course. We have missed the recession. Auto sales will increase from here and we're off to the races.
There are 250 million vehicles on the road. If the SIXM monopoly gets only 25% of them, that's 60 million subs.
Sirius will only go up from here.
"We're going to be bigger than Clear Channel"
How about "We're going to give the consumer the very best in radio"? Bigger is NOT better, more channels are NOT better, having the highest paid radio talent is NOT better. Is there anyone here who is envious of anything having to do with Clear Channel? Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin better learn quickly his desire "to be bigger than Clear Channel" is not transferable when it comes to satradio, and he will have even more subscribers dropping satradio which is turning into a pay version of FM radio. The only way Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin could make SiriusXM "bigger than Clear Channel" is to change the whole business model and become advertiser supported. Screw Clear Channel, Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin they should not be model for satradio. Subscription, pay radio will not ever be bigger than free advertiser supported radio. 16 million in 8 years vers 260 million, it's not even close nor will it ever be if the current business plan is followed. If the business plan changes then he can kiss current subscribers goodbye faster than those leaving do to his "merge" MONOPOLY scheme which is proving itself more a failure each day. The debt alone should have stopped any merge, synergy's are not even close to being fast enough to help.
More Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin Pump and Dump.
Maybe 35% into the credit crunch. Homes are still depreciating and foreclosures still rising.. worse yet, Europe now experiencing what the US did. Commodities and oil dropping because of demand decrease. Look for a WW recession of not near depression.
4th. inning best case.
"merge" MONOPOLY scheme = much more churn
BTW.... if the world economy and the finance market can keep from crashing over the next 8 months, Sirius could do very well.... the problem is... the values that are created by the falling market... this is really what's happening now.
Who wants to take a chance on SIXM when you can buy C for 18.00.... or UA for 25.... or short financials at 50% off ... or Yhoo @ 19.00? ..Hell, PFE has a 6.55 div and is 19.00 bucks wilt BILLIONS in the bank..... Sirius will follow the econcomy and market now unless it makes a profit.... nothing else will save it sans a buy out, which I think is possible in Q1, 2009.
Mel will lead this enterprise to the next level, the stock can only go up so why not invest in Sirius. I'm excited about the addition of new channels to my receiver. Change is good.
I'm just curious when Orbitcast will publish the interview with MK. Are you waiting just for time to compile it Ryan, or did you agree to wait for some pending business announcement from Sirius XM?
Stayed in bed all morning
Just to pass the time
There's something wrong here
There can be no denying
Satellite Radio is changing
Or maybe they've just stopped trying
And it's too late, Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin
Now it's too late
Though you really did try make it a "merge" MONOPOLY
Something inside keeps making you lie
And you can't hide and you just can't fake it
Oh no no no no no
It used to be so easy
having the choice in satellite radio
We had two companies working for consumers
And you knew just what to do
Now consumers are so unhappy
And you look like a fool
And it's too late, Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin
Now it's too late
Though you really did try make it a "merge" MONOPOLY
Something inside keeps making you lie
And you can't hide and you just can't fake it
Ooh no no
There'll be good times
Again for consumers
But we just can't stay together with a MONOPOLY scheme
Don't you know it too
HD Radio is the FCC standard for digital radio
And will continue to gain market share
But it's too late, Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin
Now it's too late
Though you really did try make it a "merge" MONOPOLY
Something inside keeps making you lie
And you can't hide and you just can't fake it
Ooh no no
It's too late, Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin
It's too late, now Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin's bitches
It's too late
HD blows. You just wasted 5 minutes typing that poem/song/whattheheck was that.
hah,
Your wrong, Soon you will learn that the truth and reality is NEVER a waste.