Live Blogging SIRI 4Q06 and Full-Year 2006 Earnings Call
As always, Orbitcast is live blogging the Sirius Satellite Radio earnings call. Just keep refreshing and this post will be updated in real-time.
- Mel Karamzin kicks it off
- 2006 was a "banner year" for Sirius
- in 4Q Sirius was 67% of all satellite radio net additions
- 4Q06 Sirius also captured the majority of GROSS subscriber additions for the first time in satellite radio's history
- Sirius achieved $30M of positive cash flow
- 2007 - expect total revenue to reach $1 Billion
- If that happens that will be the fastest growth to $1 billion "in the history of radio"
- Sirius Canada - Q4 of NPD share was upward of 70%
- For the full-year of 2006, Sirius achieved 55% of net OEM growth
- Self-paid churn remained flat @ 1.65% for the year
- For 2007 Sirius expects subscribers to equal 8 Million
- 2007: 1.2-1.4% churn
- 2007 SAC = $95
- Jim Meyer is up now...
- Sirius' goal of reaching parity was attained
- This is a dramatic reversal over the past 2 years
- In 2006, 2.7M total subs - 1.1M from OEM - 1.6M from Retail
- Self-paid churn 1.6%, total churn @ 1.9%
- 1.6M in retail additions represented 55% of net satellite radio share
- Sirius captured 54% of gross subscriber additions
- Sirius received the "Best Supplier of the Year Award" from Wal-Mart
- Key for 2007: to reduce aftermarket SAC
- Chip upgrade for the year... reduction in size and heat = better form factor and battery
- STM is currently producing the new chipset
- New services to be launched alter this year using HM
- 55% of net OEM addition share
- Q4 = 65% of net OEM addition share
- 44% improvement over 4Q05
- More than doubled OEM share in 2006
- 132 individual factory-installed vehicle models
- 40% for DCX, up from 30% of last
- Sirius real-time traffic is now hitting the showroom - included with DCX's MyGig radios
- Sirius/DCX co-marketing commercials helped not only with brand but also at the dealer
- Ford/Lincoln/Mercury penetration rates are exceeding expected levels
- VW/Audi targeting an 80% install rate and this program is fully operational
- 2/3rds of Mecedes-Benz offer Sirius factory-installed
- Expect to see declines in NPD retail share - January will show the biggest decline YoY
- From February forward, NPD data will show an improvement
- To combat consumer confusion - we wil GUARANTEE that their radios will not be obscelete
- Now to Scott Greenstein....
- The old phrase "content is king" is still true in this technologically changing world
- NASCAR "is every bit as huge as we thought it would be"
- A retail store close to Daytona sold out
- Every one of the 37 races will each be a selling opportunity for Sirius
- Tremendous response from the sports media - much like Sirius' NFL coverage
- Focus in premiere programming results in remarkable press coverage which creates cheap and organic marketing
- 13,000 print stories featured Sirius in 2006
- Nearly 3M subs added in 2006 have driven revenue to nearly $800M
- Self-paid churn remains very consistent and they don't see this changing for 2007
- Total churn will change in 2007 as OEM subs come up for renewal
- NASCAR, Jamie Foxx, Siriusly Sinatra and "other exciting" additions in content will be added while maintaining discipline in spending
- Q4 - free cash flow of $30M
- 2006 was a milestone year for Sirius, adding record numbers of subs in a cost-effective manner
- Year-end subs for 8M
- Adjusted EBITDA will improve, but they're not providing guidance due to the merger
- Back to Mel...
- Exciting stuff coming - new radios and services like real-time traffic and radios with better battery life for this year
- New programming and content - very excited with NASCAR and the impact of it
- The Catholic Channel, The Metropolitan Channel and Siriusly Sinatra are all very exciting
- Successfully gaining subscibers
- Tomorrow Mel will be in Washington to testify on the benefits of the merger
- believe the merger is a benefit to consumers, employees, investors
- Confident that once regulators and officials come to understand the business, we're confident they will agree with the merger
- Now for Q&A
- Q: Ben Swinburn from Morgan Stanley
Retail question - Does guidance have consumer confusion "baked in" due to the merger?
OEM question - Any lessons learned from XM to drive the conversion ratio on the OEM?
A: It's fair to say we're "tempered" the first half of the year. We will see modest improvement for the 2nd half of the year after getting past the Howard bubble and assuring the consumer. We're learning more and more that it's important to be part of the factory (how the "mother company" integrates the receiver) but the dealer has a great deal of importance in improving retention rates.
The merger has put satrad in the limelight again in terms of the consumer and it's important to minimize the confusion and adding 2M net subs for the year is pretty good growth rate. - Q: Bob Peck @ Bear Stearns
What's the long-term revenue and subscriber guidance for 2010?
Retail marketshare? XM said they could narrow the marketshare
A:
For guidance - Nothing has changed except for the merger.
From the time that we've exceeded parity, we keep hearing that XM will regain marketshare, but we keep maintaining our lead.
Expect Adjusted EBIDTA to improve substancially - leverage in the business model is very clear. (....and the audio just crapped out on me)
When we were thinking of 2007 - if we didn't announce the merger we would still give you the same subscriber guidnace - Q: Loranne Mancini - Merryl
Overall retail health in 2007?
GM/DCX merger rumors? How would this change the install rates?
A:
DCX is a very important partner and we will just wait and see with them. But we have a long-term contract with them, but there's revenue benefits for them to stay on board with us because they get a rev share for the life of the vehicle.
For retail in 2007 - it's going exactly as planned. We fully expect to get by the "Howard Bubble" - but unfortantely we will have to wait for November to see how the full is affected. Personally, it will end up with growth. There's a tremendous number of people out there without satrad which gives a huge opportunity. - Q: Eileen Furkawa - Citigroup
Meetings with regulators - any feedback?
Whats the marketing spend for the next year due to the merger?
Whats the merger costs in 2007?
A:
We can;t speculate what the merger costs would be until it goes underway.
We will work to get the merger to go through. If you look at what would happen if the merger happens versus what if it didn't happen - you would see that it would be to the public's interest which is the standard to work towards. Mel will dedicate a signficant amount of his own personal time to this.
Marketing Spend has not been adjusted for the merger.95% of consumers out there don't have satellite radio - 250M cars, 109M homes but only 10M satrad subscibers - there's a huge opportunity. - Q: Brian @ Credit Suisse
Family Plan - what's the percentage
Self-pay SAC
A: Family is 13-14% range
Self-pay churn tends to be seasonal but over the course of the year is consistent in the 1.6% range - Q: What portion of the total population has actually heard satrad?
Any data on why do people churn?
Long-term impact on OEM use thanks to "nomadic systems" like iPods?
A: No, no data on percentage of people who listen to satrad. We got some great reaction but free trial offers, but not hard data. We look at all audio options as competitive to satrad - someone listening to ipod is competiting with satrad as well as with terretrial, HD radio, etc. This supports our view on the merger. We believe our content is superior to any audio option.
Why people churn - non-payment is the major reason. Then it drops dramatically to a disatisfaction in the service for some reason. And then it goes to receiver related churn reasons (revceiver breaks, they sell car, etc) - Q: Precise update on the OEM conversion from the promo period? You said that it should be similar to XM - but that it may be "greener" than XM - do you expect to go up or down from where XM is?
Re contracts - do Howard, NFL, Martha, NASCAR contracts allow you to simulcast to XM for the merger? ANd if not, what will be the impact?
A: On the second point (contracts) we will not comment on the contracts. We've talked about the syneries of the merger and you should use those for your reference.
On the OEM conversion rates. We will stick with what we've been saying over the past couple years. OEM conversion rate is embedded within our churn rate. We get there with our go-to-market model is different from XM's. We have a distro partner who bundles 12-mo, 6-mo subs, and we have another one coming on for 3-mo. (audio crapped out again) - ...audio back on, and Mel's talking about the mergers in terrestrial radio. You're talking about two companies that are losing hundreds of millions of dollars - not companies that are big business. They're going to do their best to sell it and are confident that it will be received positively.
- Q&A is over.
Thanks for joining us today "and have a good quarter"
And we're done.


Comments
Sirius is exclusively referring to themselves as the "audio entertainment leader" and otherwise maximizing use of "audio entertainment" over "radio" especially "satellite radio".
Posted by: leviramsey ? | February 27, 2007 8:23 AM
Just off-hand, why weren't you listening to the Sirius satellite feed of the CC? I never had the audio crap out (am near a repeater)
Posted by: leviramsey ? | February 27, 2007 9:05 AM
Although I have no problem with the methods Sirius uses in OEM for counting the sub and revenue. FACT remanins that its drasticly different from XM ans Sirius must stop giving % market share on OEM. Its misleading. I am not saying Sirius is not doing well, Only that you can not compare OEM churn or OEM net to XM due to the overall time lag. Infact a 55% OEM market share is pretty pathetic when Sirius's OEM's churn out only after a minimum of 15 months Vrs XM's churning out in 3 months. Also, As I predicted Sirius passed XM in Gross primarily on OEM not Retail Gross adds. after backing out the longer term OEM's its an even horse race. Proving that there is equal demand for both XM and Sirius. This also indicates that both will continue to grow. Revenue growth for both XM and sirius for 2006 was 375 and 395 million respectively. Again a pretty close horse race.
Posted by: jeff | February 27, 2007 9:08 AM
One other thing I didn't see mentioned in your synopsis:
THEY LOST 1.1 BILLION DOLLARS IN '06, WHICH BRINGS THE TWO YEAR TOTAL TO JUST SHORT OF 2 BILLION DOLLARS.
They must not have pointed that out in the CC...
Posted by: StackPointer ? | February 27, 2007 10:29 AM