March Satellite Radio Retail Sales NPD Data (Verdit: lukewarm)
NPD Group's March sales data for satellite radio retail sales demand has risen slightly again consecutively since December. But don't get too excited because retail sales are still down in the annual comparison. Year-over-year retail sales fell 28% in March (up from the 33% drop in February, 44% drop in January and a whoppin' 46% drop in December). We're slowing crawling out of the "Stern Effect" comparison bubble, so this is going to continue to get easier from this point forward.
The Quick Glance:
- Sirius March 2007 Retail Sales:
Down 31% YoY - XM March 2007 Retail Sales:
Down 23% YoY
For the full quarter:
- Sirius 1Q07 Retail Sales: -40% YoY
- XM 1Q07 Retail Sales: -29% YoY
Marketshare:
- Sirius Mar '07 Retail Marketshare: 53%
- XM Mar '07 Retail Marketshare: 47%
XM is finally making a bit of a comeback in retail, gaining 3 percentage points against Sirius, and climbing up from a 35% YoY decline last month (though Sirius still beats XM in retail marketshare). Sirius also continues to show a bit of a comeback from a 33% drop last month, and the dismal earlier months.
Still, a decline is a decline, so don't go popping the champaign just yet guys.
I think it's time to get more creative with retail. Father's Day is looming and we need to see some new products, as well as some more aggressive marketing efforts. Mergers are distracting, (that's a fact) but if you want Wall Street to stop pummeling you... well, you need to show growth. Simple right? (Well, no not really, but we've got some ideas.)


Comments
La La LA
Posted by: Eatsleepdrivesc ? | April 25, 2007 6:48 PM
think it's time to get more creative with retail. Father's Day is looming and we need to see some new products, as well as some more aggressive marketing efforts. Mergers are distracting
Could not have said it better myself
Posted by: prozac ? | April 25, 2007 7:07 PM
Ryan can you tell me by what percentage March NPD sales numbers were up over February? I read last month February sales were up 8% over January. Thanks.
Posted by: MUSCLE13 ? | April 25, 2007 7:12 PM
XM closing the gap fast at retail. If they achieve a 50/50 split at retail and with their OEM dominance they will be the market leader once again.
Posted by: Matt | April 25, 2007 10:49 PM
BTW, SSG numbers on NPD data differ slightly from yours.
They have XM with a 48% market share for March and Sirius with 52%.
They also have XM down 22% for March YOY and Sirius down 33% YOY for March.
These changed skew the data slightly more in XM's favor.
Curious as to which are correct.
Either way this blows the analysts comments on sub count out of the water for XM. Look for XM to acheive close to 350K net subcriber ads, not the 230K to 290K doom and gloom the analysts were predicting.
Posted by: Matt | April 25, 2007 10:53 PM
It seems to me that satellitestandard is overwhelmingly dominated by Sirius people and that orbitcast is dominated by XM, as if it really matters that much. I subscribe to Sirius (though I'd rather have the combined programming) and I was shocked that XM didn't have a bigger share in March with baseball starting up. WITHOUT the Stern bubble and WITHOUT mlb and basically WITHOUT toyota, Sirius still had a bigger market share than XM? If XM couldn't take the lead this month, then I don't know if they ever will. The cards were stacked in their favor, and they still fell short, even if their numbers, in comparison, were better than last year.
I'd rather see the companies end this Betamax vs. VHS war and focus on competing with free radio, but if they don't, it looks like Sirius has the long-term advantage in branding and subscriber retention over XM. I know XM has the slight advantage in OEM partners, but judging by the numbers from the last 2 years, Sirius had the clear edge in conversion rate and retail subscriptions. Honestly, I think the overall diffences in content are minimal, but Sirius has the slight advantage, and in the long-run, content is what really matters.
Posted by: JB ? | April 26, 2007 2:42 AM
"it looks like Sirius has the long-term advantage in branding and subscriber retention over XM"
Those "free" 1 year and 3 year subscriptions from new cars that Sirius offers will churn one day soon, and might not be that pretty. Far different than the way XM signs subscribers.
But we are talking retail. It seems MLB may have actually made an impact. Im as shocked as the next guy. XM marketing still sucks after all this time. Or i just dont watch TV, because im busy listening TO THE RADIO.
Posted by: XMScott ? | April 26, 2007 5:50 AM
"it looks like Sirius has the long-term advantage in branding and subscriber retention over XM"
Unless you have to deal with Sirius's abomination of customer service and radios that break after a year, it might be ok. As a formal dual subscriber, I was tired of Sirius radios broke over and over again. I am now exclusively with XM because their unit still works after a year with no problem. Branding means nothing to me. At the end of the day, service and retaining my subscription makes a difference. Sirius has a long way to go in this department.
Posted by: mrmagoo ? | April 26, 2007 6:57 AM
Looks like SSG has changed his numbers. Now says that XM has 44% and Sirius has 53% market share. I dont believe anything that comes out of that site anymore.
All the analysts are reporting the same numbers that Orbitcast is reporting.
Posted by: xoxo | April 26, 2007 8:05 AM
JB wrote: "It seems to me that satellitestandard is overwhelmingly dominated by Sirius people and that orbitcast is dominated by XM, as if it really matters that much. I subscribe to Sirius (though I'd rather have the combined programming) and I was shocked that XM didn't have a bigger share in March with baseball starting up. WITHOUT the Stern bubble and WITHOUT mlb and basically WITHOUT toyota, Sirius still had a bigger market share than XM? If XM couldn't take the lead this month, then I don't know if they ever will. The cards were stacked in their favor, and they still fell short, even if their numbers, in comparison, were better than last year."
-----
The same thing could be said the other way around. Sirius barely beat XM when having NASCAR, NBA and Stern competing with just the MLB on the XM side (both have NHL this year, so a wash).
Frankly, this "my dad can beat up your dad content-wise" bullcrap is just that, bullcrap. They still beat the crap out of terrestrial anyday.
Posted by: SatelliteRadioFan ? | April 26, 2007 9:50 AM
Sorry Matt. The analysts were dead on. XM added 285,000 net subscribers. Still haven't reached 8 million yet. I would gloat but Sirius' numbers could be worse so I'm going to be sympathetic with you XM lovers. It's the merger news that's slowing people up from buying sat radios. Fucking merger. Pass it or deny it already! They're fucking screwing everything up.
Posted by: Jorge ? | April 26, 2007 1:39 PM