Merrill Lynch says that Sirius should have more 2005 news catalysts than rival XM Satellite Radio. They attribute this to the deals with Ford and DaimlerChrysler as well as upcoming 3G products, Howard Stern, and "a focus on building advertiser relationships."
The firm said "the market is not giving Sirius the benefit for ultimately achieving 50% market share with similar or better operating leverage (less than 25% revenue share) than XM Satellite." Merrill said XM Satellite shares are fairly valued at current levels "while there is nearly 30% upside potential for Sirius shares."
Now, mind you this is all based on speculation that Sirius will in fact reach 50% market share (in 2005?). But XM has their Connect-and-Play technology which opens up massive opportunities in consumer electronics (ahem, SkyPod anyone?), so I wouldn't count them out as Merrill seems to be implying.
I think more than anything, if XM is going to hold back Sirius' explosive gain - it's going to depend on their marketing dept. Sure, car shows allow for great exposure - but they really need to work on their television spots IMHO.
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