Bridge Ratings has been maintaining their ongoing study on satellite radio this year, and their most recent research has shown that the retail sales is showing "a sluggish environment."
Since Labor Day Weekend, retail activity has dropped by 29%, and is down 16% since last week.
An interesting aspect is that Bridge is saying that they're finding it harder to find participants to interview. Generally Bridge likes to grab about 4,000 people - about 100 people in 40 different locations. In recent weeks though, "retail traffic has been lighter" and so Bridge has had to expand the number of locations. Bridge feels that should this trend continue, "it may very well be appropriate to assume retail interest in satellite radio has waned."
Is it interest in satellite radio? or interest in completing an interview that has waned?
With subscriber numbers expected out sometime this week, I'd love to see exactly how much of this doom-and-gloom actually proves to be true or not.
While I don't doubt sales are slow, Bridge Ratings has been so radically wrong from the outset that they have no credibility whatsoever.
They've shown no hesitancy to merely change their research to reflect what the real quarter-end numbers end up being. If they're wrong again this quarter, they'll change it again.
Why bother?
Sales are down because everyone is just holding out for the Stiletto.
Perhaps consumers might be waiting for the Stiletto?
Or it could be that people are waiting to buy new product because they know that in a month all the equipment that they would buy now is going to be second rate in a month.
I'm an early adopter of satellite radio, looove my XM, but I do think Sirius and XM are going to have to rethink their strategy. I know they keep using the people paid for cable tv they will pay for radio analogy, but that was what? 25 years ago? Subscription based satellite is not going to be the next cable, especially with wifi technology rapidly expanding, that will change the landscape (and give credit where credit is due for Sirius starting to address that) They are gonna have to morph into some kind of content providers that provide more than just satellite radio in the long run to survive. Lower retail sales shouldn't really come as a suprise to anyone, why spend your money on subscriptions to one medium when Apple (and soon microsoft) will let you buy not only music, but movies and tv as well...
I want to go on record as saying that I believe 3rd Quarter net adds for both companies will be horrific. I expect around 400k for each company.
Retail is slowing...and OEM isn't materalizing. The way things are going now, I have sincere doubts that the market is large enough to support two players. Of course, there will be no merger either...those that blab about a merger simply don't understand the business. One will simply die (And that one will be Sirius)
Westfall
I remember doom and gloomers predicting the same thing about AOL. After all, the mighty compuserve was just too big for upstart aol to survive. We all know what happened there, aol ended up taking over compuserve. Look for the same to happen with sirius and xm. Only xm will be the loser and sirius will take them over.
Uhhh what?!?! Look at the trends for the past year. Sirius outselling XM, sirius sales up from the past year, XM sales down. NASCAR moving to Sirius. And most important, Sirius is expected to show a profit in 2007. If one is going to die its the one with the most wounds and right now that is XM.
SIRIUS will NOT show a profit in 2007.
400k net adds for each company is not BAD. That would be a decent QTR for both.
I just do not understand the whole mp3 player comment RobOnt.
Why pay for subscriptions when Apple and Microsoft are delivering, music, tv and movies? You have to pay for them also.
Plus mp3 players are a pain to keep up to date. I do not have time in my day to adding content to my Ipod and therefore do not keep it up to date. Plus when I am at work I am working except for a little time hear and there to read the news, web sites, etc. I can't be the only one that has other things to do than update the ipod.
I have to agree with some of the other comments. People are really holding out for the new SIRIUS Stilletto 100. Also, the fact that most of the SIRIUS and some XM units have been off of the market for some time due to issues with the FCC.
"Uhhh what?!?! Look at the trends for the past year. Sirius outselling XM, sirius sales up from the past year, XM sales down. NASCAR moving to Sirius. And most important, Sirius is expected to show a profit in 2007. If one is going to die its the one with the most wounds and right now that is XM."
Jerry, you may already know this, but you're a fucking retard. XM Sat has had more gross adds than Sirius every single quarter. EVERY. SINGLE. QUARTER.
XM Sales are not down. Revenue is up YOY, gross adds are up YOY. The only thing that is down is net adds. Sirius *hasn't even gotten to the point* where XM's NET ADDS started to tapper off.
Sirius is expected to show a profit in 2007!?!?! Expected by whom!? Their mentally-challanged investors? They certainly are not expected to show a profit by anyone who has any iota of financial knowlege or investing accumen.
You're a know-nothing ass, and you always will be.
Westfall
Gross adds. WOW. If you were a sat radio company and added gross adds of 100 and net adds of 0 where are you? If you were the other sat radio provider and added gross adds of 100 and net adds of 50 where are you? Ahead of sat radio provider number 1.
Westfall, Too bad you cant form an arguement and have to resort to name calling. Even if I did know nothing, I hightly doubt you could have gathered that from my one and only post.
Anyway, check your facts. Sirius has added more subscribers for the past 3 quarters according to this article. YOU ARE WRONG, xm did not add more subs than sirius.
http://www.fool.com/news/mft/2006/mft06080112.htm
According to this, Sirius has outsold XM every month for the past 12 months. And it also says the YoY sales are down!!! YOU ARE WRONG, xm sales are not up.
http://www.orbitcast.com/archives/analysis-august-satellite-radio-retail-sales-data-from-npd.html
And finally, this article states that they could be cash flow positive by Q4 2007 and perhaps for the whole year.
Westfall, check out todays post about net subscribers. You appear to be the one who is the no-nothing ass.
I left off the last link which shows that Sirius may be cash flow positive in Q4 2007. I reposted it right away but it did not show up, so here it is. Its the second paragraph prior to the section on the Stiletto.
http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2006/commentary06092505.htm
Fucking dumbass cunts. I don't have time to respond to all the retardedness...
Jerry, Do you even know the difference between gross adds and net adds, you dumb asshole?
Sales of XM's retail units are down, but XM's sales (from the balance sheet--another word for this is revenue UP), you fidiot.
CASH FLOW POSSITIVE IS NOT THE SAME THING AS SHOWING A PROFIT. Your mother should have used a coat hanger on you when you were an embryo.
Have you ever wondered what it would be like to possess just a small ammount of knowledge?
Westfall