A few days ago I was asked on the Orbitcast Forums my prediction of when the DOJ would make a decision on the merger between Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. and XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc.
The short answer? My guess is by the end of the day, today.
Keep in mind that this is not based off of any "D.C. contacts" or any level of viable insider information, although there is a fair amount of chatter on the timing (much of it is really just wishful thinking/prayers). Personally, I don't think anyone really knows when the DOJ will make their move for sure. But with all the talk that a decision will arrive by the end of the year, and the fact that no one (especially the government) is working next week... it just makes for a perfect storm.
Tom Taylor of Radio-Info puts it perfectly in this morning's newsletter:
"Journalists grimly joke about big news being released on days going into holidays, or on Fridays. Today would be both. The purpose would be for the agency (in this case, the Department of Justice) to get something off its plate, and do it with minimal attention."
If there was to be any chest-thumping opposition to the decision (that is, if all the reports that the transaction will be approved are true) coming from Congress, it would be diffused somewhat over the next week before everyone settles back in. So it just makes sense.
[via Orbitcast Forums]
Thanks MUSCLE13!
Ryan, lets hope the AP picks up your story and causes the stock to jump so I can sell a bit of it.
i would agree that makes total sense ryan-----but nothing has gone with logic on this either lol
I'll wait for Ryan's next post to admit he was wrong :-P
My prediction for the fight???
PAIN....
Clubber Lang
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In a perfect world my friend. In a perfect world.
Unfortunately the government is FAR from perfect. And will in all likely hood do the EXACT opposite of what makes sense...or what you are hoping/wishing for.
It's a nice thought tho. Wouldn't that be a great gift going into the holiday.
oh well.
In a perfect world my friend. In a perfect world.
Unfortunately the government is FAR from perfect. And will in all likely hood do the EXACT opposite of what makes sense...or what you are hoping/wishing for.
It's a nice thought tho. Wouldn't that be a great gift going into the holiday.
oh well.
your guess is just as good as any ANAList out there. Good luck.
Show me the money!
A decision would be helpful for those long calls, expiring today.... Which is exactly why the decision will not come today. IMHO
Good luck on your prediction Ryan, but I am not holding my breath. We are too close to the holidays now.
My prediction? Another full month of speculation and a decision by January 15th (crosses fingers).
I think your reasoning is dead on . We have been told to expect the DOJ decision by the end of the year. This is the "perfect" time.
As for any elation or PPS increase due to the DOJ announcement...I just do not see much movement....not since the FCC says their decision will come later in the 1st quarter.
Hey you can't do any worse with your guess than RBC or Bear Stearns! LOL
Who cares?? Today, next month, or even in February. Fact is, approval is imminent or it would have been dismissed out of hand... long ago.
Just goes to show you that at this point we ALL qualify as experts on this subject. Considering that the DOJ/FCC (Government) has not found any WMD's regarding this request they will be very slow to act. All OPINIONS point to a favorable decision on the merger. The INDICATORS say maybe not... For the record - I'm pro merger.
Today is the Day if not i will be wrong but i doubt ii am wrong.
Everything points to it being today.
Excuse me for taking a contrarian view of things....but when I hear everyone saying TODAY's the day....thats when I think perhaps not.
At this point it'll happen when it'll happen. I think it's pretty much a done deal...but as far as WHEN they'll make the "official" announcement...I wouldn't even venture a guess.
Let it happen. :-)
...more likely than not, I'm probably wrong. :)
But it's based off of an educated guess, and that's all I got.
Ryan ,if any news were imminent these 2 stocks would not be trading so pathetic.
THAT'S GREAT, IF YOU ARE WRONG, YOU WILL BE COSTING YOUR READERS MONEY. NEXT STOP IS $3.00 IF YOU ARE WRONG.
5 pm EST. Probably not going to happen at this point, unless its a very late afternoon announcement.
Haven't you heard the tale of the boy who cried wolf? This speculation without any factual backing really needs to stop...
Haven't you heard the tale of the boy who cried wolf? This speculation without any factual backing really needs to stop...
YUP!!
Ryan. This is the best satellite blog on the net, hands down. I congratulate you. And as must as I wish your predictiion was right, it wwasn't. But orbitcast is still awesome. And this merger is still goig to pass. Thanks for the dedication.
Orbitcast all the way.!
Haven't you heard the tale of the boy who cried wolf? This speculation without any factual backing really needs to stop...
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Yea,Everyone has,whats your point??
All that matters is that this merger will happen.So what!
I am sick and tired of all the YAHOOS that need attention saying "reuters News,Doj announcement,It's approved!!!.
STOP THE CRAP!!!! IT'S GOING TO HAPPEN.
Im sick of the nay-sayers saying it's a monopoly.It's not.
Wait for the bureaucrats to get off their assess and say ok.It's going to happen,tomorrow or next year,STFU!
My wife wants us to build (have built for us, actually) a retirement home in the next year or two. I haven't told her that the prospect frightens me- I sure could use a resource that would de- mystify the process and put me in a better position to know when smoke was being blown up my ass in order to lighten my wallet.