What an idiot. Say they're at 20M now, the end of 2011 is 3.5 years away, that puts them adding 35M in 3.5 years, or only 10 Million Subs/year.

What a freaking idiot.

Now stack....don't fly off the handle. I think that is a fair estimate considering the rate at which the field of competition changes and the vast number of other variables affecting retial and OEM's.

8 bucks a share pleases me....

If Sirius is set to an $8 target wouldn't that mean that XM should be around $36.80? due to the 4.6 ratio if the two companies merge. I am a bit skeptical and I am a SIRI stock holder.

How many "subscribers" are in auto junk lots by then?

So they're going to add 39 million subs in 3 - 4 years. Are these $6.99 subs or full price? Either way, bullshit. It's taken 6 -7 years to get 16 million and the number of new subs is pretty non-existent. I think anyone with half a brain realizes that unfortunately no matter how great a product SDARS is, it will be a niche product. People just will not pay for radio.

"If Sirius is set to an $8 target wouldn't that mean that XM should be around $36.80?"

XM Target price is what they're to be worth as a standalone company if, for some reason, there is no merger.

"It's taken 6 -7 years to get 16 million and the number of new subs is pretty non-existent. I think anyone with half a brain realizes that unfortunately no matter how great a product SDARS is, it will be a niche product. People just will not pay for radio."

Uhhhhh...16 million by your admission ARE paying. ...and your argument that it has taken 7 years to get there is pretty weak considering what has transpired during those 7 years in the audio market there skippy....but hey...your uninformed opinion is welcome here.

Yea, those numbers sound alittle ambitious to me. Sat. radio may idealy add 2 million subs a year, but 10? I'm not to sure. If you add 2 million subs a year, that would optumistically put us at 25 million by 2011. But then again that can be totally off. Technology is imporoving so fast, now. I guess, time will only tell.

"It's taken 6 -7 years to get 16 million and the number of new subs is pretty non-existent. I think anyone with half a brain realizes that unfortunately no matter how great a product SDARS is, it will be a niche product. People just will not pay for radio."

Uhhhhh...16 million by your admission ARE paying. ...and your argument that it has taken 7 years to get there is pretty weak considering what has transpired during those 7 years in the audio market there skippy....but hey...your uninformed opinion is welcome here.

It's funny. People have become so used to BASHING this stock...that if someone says something GOOD about it....they scoff.

I try to take extreme views either positive or negative with a grain of salt. Everything in moderation. :-)

moderation IS the way to go...Indeed!

It's taken 6 -7 years to get 16 million and the number of new subs is pretty non-existent.
=====================================================

Sub adds in the time frame you mention (6 - 7 years) is primarily through retail channel and not OEM. OEM has been ramping up big and will continue to factory install more SatRad in coming years. Look at the past several quarterly reports on net new subs!!! How can you say new subs are "pretty non existent'?? On average they are adding about 10,000 new subscribers PER DAY as a combined entity. 55 Million by 2011 might be a bit of a stretch I agree HOWEVER I'm confident you see them double subscribers from current levels up to 40M by 2011. This would be inclusive of $6.99 sub packages! With new packages if ARPU goes down to $8 then you will see revenue of 325M per month!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

LOL

The stock must be on an upswing with insiders now since we're getting positive analyst reviews, compared to the last several weeks of nothing but negative news by analysts and the stock was getting hammered by the shorts. Sux for those who gave up and sold low. 10m subs a year is a good estimate. I think the future of Siri is that Mel plans to branch out into mobile TV in every vehicle. Siri is the Apple of Sat Radio!!! :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-)

AC, what argument did I make that was weak, Skippy? I didn't make any argument, just stated the facts. Since these two have been doing business they've signed up 16 million. Maybe you can point out why my comment is uninformed you seem pretty knowledgeable.

And Matt, while they are adding customers, the amount at retail is nothing short of abysmal, the OEM ramp up is not happening anywhere near as fast as they had hoped, new car sales are in the shitter and adding subs at $100 SAC when they pay $6.99 for music doesn't help anything. And if you add 10,000 a day but lose 9,999 to churn you're not doing well. If they were to double subs (not to 40M, 16m x 2 = 32m) at $6.99 it would be a complete disaster. How is 32 mill anywhere near 55? It's almost half the figure.

Face it, these companies are never going to be the powerhouses that we all thought. It's a fantastic service no matter who you go with but unless you are seriously into radio it's a waste and the average person is never going to pay for it.

This explains to me why Citi's stock has lost 60% and the company lost Billions while Goldman (GS) makes Billions and values siri @ 2.25.

Citibank = Idiots on the level of the Bush Administration.

Sirius WILL NEVER be at 8 dollars a share. Never ever.

Ron and Fez 12 - 3

While OEM installs might keep them alive

"Face it, these companies are never going to be the powerhouses that we all thought. It's a fantastic service no matter who you go with but unless you are seriously into radio it's a waste and the average person is never going to pay for it."

Without retail its a waste of time. And i dont see them ever changing. People dont care about radio.

Dats a good vuhn!!1

People don't care about radio? Hmmm. I guess you don't own a car then. Everyone I know who has tried sat radio and drives will NEVER go back to regular radio.

Plus XM and Sirius have BIG plans. They are already providing their service on cell phones.

Face it....people WANT radio...they just don't want regular radio with its endless commercials. That is why Terrestrial radio is dying...advertisers are jumping ship.

Look...I LOVE my ipod/iphone. They are great. I have 60gigs of music on mine. BUT...I still love radio. For one thing, it's LIVE...you've got sports and talk etc...and you can listen to NEW music without having to CONSTANTLY update. Cause face it...people have more important things to do than always organizing their playlists.

No matter what is said about these companies about the future..EVERYTHING will be on hold until the FCC approves without divying up the spectrum. All these clowns (NAB, Rainbow push, georgetown, primosphere, congress (with radio ties),etc... are saying that this merger will affect competition and is bad and the FCC should stand up and say No. The DOJ managed that aspect of merger, the FCC only manages spectrum and communication on such spectrum. They should Stop expecting the FCC to overstep its boundaries and rectifiy the DOJs decision. The FCC should just go us a decision already....even the democratic nominee will be decided before this thing ends.

The merger is a done deal. Whats taking so long is the special interest groups vying for spectrum and the concessions. Mel K is a master negotiator. He will fight as strongly as the opposition to get what he wants, and what will benifit the company AND the shareholders.

We're all impatient. But we've waited this long...now in the 11th hour is not the time to panic. We are so close. Relaaaaaax. We are on the verge of the merge. Enjoy and savor these last moments.

There was a time when Apple was slapped around and not taken seriously. Back in the day when Dell was a top dog next to Microsoft. Of course, MSFT stock has been sh** for years, but that's not the point. APPLE's key to success has been innovation and marketing. There was a time when people didn't know they wanted an Apple product until Apple showed them the way. When Sirius is able to move forward, after the FCC approval, and get their marketing plan in motion and are able to plan for forward innovation, the sky's the limit (no pun intended).

Stackpointer wrote: "What an idiot. Say they're at 20M now, the end of 2011 is 3.5 years away, that puts them adding 35M in 3.5 years, or only 10 Million Subs/year.

What a freaking idiot."

Actually it's only 2.5 years away, since they said "by 2008".

This guy is clueless. Even with OEM vastly ramping up (which it thankfully is), they wouldn't come close to that. Unless they merge and bring out ala carte right away (which they said they won't for about another year or more), there is NO WAY they will make 55 million.

The market will max out around 40-45 million, and that may be optimistic at this point.

I agree, this merger is a done deal. It will be great when we can stick it up the a$$ of the whole planet of people who have been bad mouthing the merger since day 1.

The bashers new game plan is to promote the drop of retail subs. The answer I beleive lies with the FCC and the merger. They have had both companies on hold for a year and a half. How do you advertise and market a product, when from day to day that product will change? They cannot develop new radios. Salespeople are telling people to wait until the merger happens...I think a rampup occurs post merger in retail subs...

re-reading the notes...I'll bet it was supposed to read 5.5 million rather than 55....

positive analyst reviews

That is what i am expecting after merger. JJ is gone and the big boys that made the mistake of thinking Sirius was nothing and invested in XM will own shares of Sirius.
Are they going to bash what they own i think not they will start pumping what they own.

The big boys bashed Sirius because they held XM.

Apple's been so successful with their iPod yet they still can't sell a fucking computer. So much for their brilliance.

@ Regan, the average person doesn't give a shit about SDARS and they don't even sign up once their promo period ends. The average listener is more than happy with am/fm/cassette/cd/mp3 player.

Everyone I've know that's bought in or received as a gift loved it, then within a year stopped paying the sub. Unless you're a diehard radio person, which very few are, or you love O&A or Howard there's no reason to get either service.

I know on this board everyone likes to repeat terrestrial is dying but that's bullshit. Terrestrial is huge and unfortunately dwarfs SDARS audience. Older people won't pay for radio because they never had to. Younger people won't pay for radio because they don't think they should have to. Most artists can't even get their fans to pay for their CD.

Scott wrote: "While OEM installs might keep them alive

"Face it, these companies are never going to be the powerhouses that we all thought. It's a fantastic service no matter who you go with but unless you are seriously into radio it's a waste and the average person is never going to pay for it."

Without retail its a waste of time. And i dont see them ever changing. People dont care about radio."

It never was and never will be about retail. This IMHO was one the biggest mistakes people made while investing. OEM and integration into cell phones (via cache) is the way. The biggest hurdle in retail was reception and installation. Too much hassle and too much time wasted to get it to work. It can also be too expensive, because by the time you buy all the parts to get it to work you're at $200+ dollars and have wires all over the place that makes it look crappy.

If the price is right, the purchase and use are *easy*, and the content great, people WILL pay for radio. The question of course is, how much will they pay, and how big will the market get?

IMHO, I say 40-45 million. Since OEM's are ramping up, they already have king content, and the prices are still decent.

I can't speak for the rest of the planet, so I'll speak for myself. I have a Stiletto.

I download whatever music I want to hear from the internet to my computer to my Stilletto. I can transfer cassette tapes or CD's to my thinkpad and download them as well.

The Stilleto goes with me from my house stereo or out to my car and connects via the FM transmitter into my car stereo or even out for a walk with the headphones. I don't buy CD's. I don't listen to terrestrial radio, AM/FM/HD or cassettes or whatever other media you want to talk about.

The Stilleto has it all. I listen to live and/or tape NASCAR races, Howard Stern, Country Music and the NFL. Soon I will get MLB. I have had the Stilleto for over a year and it works great. There is no reason to have anything else, PERIOD.

Name one thing I cannot do with the Stilleto from an audio entertainment perspective.

Again, we're all blinded here by our love of the service. I love it and don't want a hardwired solution in my dash. A PnP doesn't cost $200 or anywhere near. You can get one for $20. It takes maybe 3 minutes to set it up in the car. Maybe another 10 minutes to hide the wires. It already is "easy". The price is already right and the content is already there. No one is buying.

For the average person to get SDARS in-dash, they'd need to commit a monthly charge for something they only use in their car. If they want to listen at home too they'd need another radio and another sub. That's not a good value for the casual listener.

What about the millions of people that don't have a car, don't buy new cars, don't drive much. I live in a large city, own a car and drive it maybe 5 miles a month. SDARS in-dash is a waste of $ for me and millions of others. Retail should absolutely be doing better. I suppose Apple would be better off doing away with retail and focus on putting iPods in-dash too by that logic.

OEM will be a big boost but to discount retail and pray that OEM installs make everything fine is just silly. Face facts, there is just not going to be a huge market for this product.

Pfreak,

I hear what you are saying. It doesn't work for everybody, but it does work for me. I could not be more pleased with the Stilleto overall.

I used to listen to Howard Stern out of NYC from an FM ANALOG tuner, because we have a stupid useless soft rock local radio station that broadcasts at 92.1 mHZ and WXRK was at 92.3 mHz. I had to get an FM directional antenna and aim it at NYC coupled with having a hill to block the local signal geographically, coupled with having the analog tuner to slightly bend the frequency to around 92.35 AWAY from 92.1 and yet, I always got interference from the local station. SATRAD eliminated all of that.

Then I used to tape his show on a VCR at home to get 6 hours of audio onto one tape, using the first Model SATRAD receiver that came out. I would end up listening to the show sometimes days later. When the Stilleto came out, I was able to dump all of the VCRs and the tapes. I can record him from my car or home. I can listen to him anywhere. Not just where I can hook up a VCR.

The technolgy works great for me. But I do understand your comment, it doesn't work for everyone.

Older people won't pay for radio because they never had to.

Why do so many people think that everybody gets radio.

A good part of the Country cannot get any radio that comes in clear and add to that how many can get what they want to listen to.

Old people whatever old is do not want to listen to what is on radio and Sat radio has something for everybody. That said sat radio is just as much for old people as any age.

Sat Radio Sirius and XM have not gone after kids and have not done ads showing that it is so much more than free radio and worth paying for. For as long as sat radio has been around most people still know little about it and have never had the chance to use a radio.

Pfreak
What are you talking about? Apple has been gaining market share year over year in PC sales. Check your facts before you mouth off.

Paul
you can't use your Stiletto for phone sex, that's "audio entertainment." :)

pfreak: " The average listener is more than happy with am/fm/cassette/cd/mp3 player. "

You can't be serious? You go to any commuter who listens to the Radio on their commute to work and they'll say they hate commercials most.

Of course they dislike the commercials. They also dislike the commercials on TV but they still watch. Watch any of your friends drive with FM on. A commercial block comes up, they simply change the station and listen to something else. If all these millions of listeners were so unhappy with their listening options they'd have jumped on board years ago.

@ Rocket, while Apple has been gaining market share, their market share is still pennies on a dollar. They've moved from about 2% of PC sales to about 3 - 4%. Great. With the biggest consumer electronics product in years, they've managed to barely budge the needle by leveraging it. Compared to PC's, Mac's aren't even a dent in the market. Hell, they're not even in the market and I'm typing this to you on one of my 3 Macs, I'm no PC fan.

@ AC, if you're right then the NAB is also right and you must believe that the merger is an unlawful monopoly. SDARS, according to you, is the ONLY option for "a good part of the country".

STILL , "MORE THAN HAPPY?", I don't know how many people will end up subscribing to Satellite Radio, but I do know ~ 17 million people are willing to spend $12.95 a month to get away from commercials

@ Freak and Pfreak

"while Apple has been gaining market share, their market share is still pennies on a dollar. They've moved from about 2% of PC sales to about 3 - 4%. "

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

i see you guys are both from the same information time warp. Read on and be educated:

Apple snags 14 percent of US-based PC retail sales in February

By Katie Marsal
Published: 05:00 PM EST

Growth in Apple's personal computer business continued to outpace the industry average last month, with Macs accounting for a 14 percent unit share and 25 percent dollar share of all US-based PC retail sales, according to market research firm NPD

http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/08/03/17/apple_snags_14_percent_of_us_based_pc_retail_sales_in_february.html

Yes!!!...and the stock price SHOWS IT!!!
Rock on, Apple!

My wife and I are both in our 50s so I think we may be considered "old people" by most standards and we have had satellite since its inception, a lot of our old people friends also have it based on our recommendations. What does age have to do with who has it. It is more a question of who can comfortably afford it and guess what - old people can. As it becomes more standard in everyday life as computers, DVDs,CDs, and MP3s did the number will grow while Terrestrial will bottom out unles they make drastic changes.

pfreak: "Again, we're all blinded here by our love of the service. I love it and don't want a hardwired solution in my dash. A PnP doesn't cost $200 or anywhere near. You can get one for $20. It takes maybe 3 minutes to set it up in the car. Maybe another 10 minutes to hide the wires. It already is "easy"."

It isn't that easy. Most people want it hardwired and can't stand the FM transmitters that come with them. This requires more parts and installation for most folks, which makes that $20 PNP go up to well over $100. Add in the boombox or homekit and it goes up even further.

----------------------

pfreak: "What about the millions of people that don't have a car, don't buy new cars, don't drive much. I live in a large city, own a car and drive it maybe 5 miles a month. SDARS in-dash is a waste of $ for me and millions of others. Retail should absolutely be doing better."

With all due respect pfreak, you're in the vast minority. The market for SDARS was specifically for those that listen to radio. Over 70% of all radio listening is done in the car. This is the market, not retail.

--------------

pfreak: "I suppose Apple would be better off doing away with retail and focus on putting iPods in-dash too by that logic."

Not quite the same product. iPods are basically walkmans. They offer no live content like radio does.

@ Freak
"Great. With the biggest consumer electronics product in years, they've managed to barely budge the needle by leveraging it. Compared to PC's, Mac's aren't even a dent in the market"
--------------------------------------------------------
Are you kidding me? Apple has an excellent balance sheet and massive capital. They are in the top 5 most admired companies for growth, marketing, innovation, overall business model, customer support and service, etc. Not to mention the stock price reflecting the sound fundamentals of the company. YOY mrkt share gains and holding well against Dell and HP. iPhone sales beat analyst est. and are outpacing the mobile phone competition, the largest of which is Motorola which had a 40% drop in sales last qtr.

pfreak: "I suppose Apple would be better off doing away with retail and focus on putting iPods in-dash too by that logic."
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Are you retarded? Cars are coming standard with iPod jacks more and more, so essentially they ARE able to go in-dash as an option. As for retail, it's one of the smartest, among many, business moves that Apple made. As for Sirius, i see OEM as the largest penetration point and then i foresee some dealmaking to bring live tv and radio to handhelds/iPods. I'd like to see Mel K. and Steve Jobs cozy up. SatRad is going to be so much more than what it is right now. Wait and see. And don't kid yourself, Apple is going to be a part of that live streaming market capability. Hold on to your hats, at some point, the iPhone will also be able to make you a double shot mocha. (figuratively). sorry for calling you a retard but you're killing me.

55 Million subs by 2011?? that's three years away... does he think there's a chance in hell this merger will be decided by then?? dream big!! and dream on...

AC - very funny and good point! Let's go FCC, figure out the spectrum already!

do any of you read a post before flaming back? i said apple would be stupid to do that but it was in reference to a previous post.

i also never said apple was doing badly. 14% of the us market is a drop in the bucket of overall pc sales. i think they make a better product unfortunately their sales don't represent it and never have. apple aren't blind to it either, why do you think they made itunes available to windows pc's? without that compatibility, their ipod dominance would have been severely compromised.

Technology is moving faster than we can understand,you never know what is next for sirius. There is more satellite competition coming, the spectrum is being purchased fast and at great cost. I see SIRIUS Entertainment Copanysoon , not just satellite. Get off your Arse FCC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This, for a change, is an excellent thread.. and let me say... I LOVE Orbitcast for permitting a collection of jack-offs (myself included ) to blog about shit 50% of us know nothing about.

-----------------------------------------------------------

Now.... back to my hypothesis.

I am going to go 180 degrees by suggesting that the take rate will go up (not down) as satrad is loaded in cheaper and smaller cars. This defies conventional wisdom.

Why pray tell?

People fell they compromise by by buying smaller-cheaper autos and thereby deserve more options and features.

I am a certified fucking genius with an IQ of 146.
Remember you heard it from Plowboy first.

... and vocabulary and spelling skills of IQ 60... just ribbin' ya Plow :)

Excuse me, ..... I meant to say IQ of 14.6.

Thanks for the correction Muncher!

:)

Citi is in deep themselves, forcasting the opposite of satrad's rapid decline is nothing to joke about, but one thing is for sure this "merge" MONOPOLY is going to be the final nail in satrad's coffin.

Citi is in deep themselves, forcasting the opposite of satrad's rapid decline is nothing to joke about, but one thing is for sure this "merge" MONOPOLY is going to be the final nail in satrad's coffin.

Citi is in deep themselves, forcasting the opposite of satrad's rapid decline is nothing to joke about, but one thing is for sure this "merge" MONOPOLY is going to be the final nail in satrad's coffin.

After reviewing the Citi data, I think that Sixm will have 327.3 million subs with a stock price of 134.98 by 2012.

I see how they came to this conclusion now.... run the numbers without your glasses on!

You guys are thinking too small and not realizing one CRITICAL fact in the grand scheme of things. Everyone here is thinking "U.S based" for sirius to be expanding in, and because of this they laugh at a 55 million subscriber estimate.

DId it occur to anyone that all the new radios being installed in new cars, are also being sold over seas in europe? This opens up an entirely new market for sirius. Think about that.

When you take that into account, a 55 million estimate looks rather modest. All the 2008 vehicles with sirius being sold over seas and you could imagine the possibilities.