New Study out on the Sirius/XM merger

Thursday, June 14, 2007 at 1:37 PM
Tags: 2, XM

Satellite RadioThere's a new study out about the Sirius-XM merger by Thomas Hazlett. Hazlett is the former Chief Economist of the FCC, Professor of Law & Economics at George Mason University, and a principal in Arlington Economics.

The paper, "The Economics of the Satellite Radio Merger," which was prepared for Sirius-XM and sent into the FCC today, looks at the financial and strategic aspects of the Sirius-XM merger. It concludied that the merger has the potential to yield substantial efficiencies, and as a result, benefits consumers and enhance competition.

PDF Click to read the full paper (PDF)

Hazlett isn't new to writing about the satellite radio world. This article, from 2004 when XM launched its traffic/weather channels, shows his especially deep knowledge of the subject (it's about the ridiculous "localism" argument that the NAB is touting - well worth the read if you have the time).

On the Sirius-XM merger, Professor Hazlett said, "After a thorough analysis, it is my opinion that the merger of XM and SIRIUS will predictably enhance consumer welfare. The National Association of Broadcasters' (NAB) staunch opposition to the merger illustrates their similar expectation. The improved economic vitality of a combined satellite radio company would drive industry innovation, promote competition and enhance programming and pricing options for customers."

So understand that whether you're for or against the merger, this study comes from someone who really knows what he's talking about. My searches haven't found anything where he's contradicting his views here. Hazlett focuses primarily on the economics of the deal (he is, afterall, the FCC's former Chief Economist) and he might just answer the question of "how can a merger open up diversity?" that many are asking.

Follow the jump to read key findings of the study...

(I've bolded a few lines below that, to me at least, are really key realizations/statements.) 

The proposed XM-Sirius merger will increase competition among providers of audio entertainment.

  • AM/FM radio competes with satellite radio, as evidenced by long-standing opposition by terrestrial stations to satellite rivalry and to the proposed merger.
  • If the terrestrial broadcasters genuinely believed that the merger would substantially increase price, they would support - not oppose - the merger, given that higher prices for satellite radio would translate into larger audiences and ad revenues for them.
  • Since satellite radio first appeared on the scene, broadcasters have consistently attempted to restrain this new service to protect their interests at the expense of market competition.


Numerous independent investment analysts have concluded that the proposed merger will yield substantial efficiencies.

  • The merger is expected to lift the financial prospects of satellite radio, lower capital financing costs, and foster economies of scale. Consensus estimates identify cost synergies of between $3 billion and $7 billion in net present value.
  • These efficiencies will permit more aggressive investment in satellite systems and products and prompt competitive responses from terrestrial broadcasters and other rivals.


By any measure, satellite radio is dwarfed by terrestrial radio.

  • The most common measure of economic size is revenue. Terrestrial broadcasters accounted for over $21 billion in sales in 2006, as compared to just $1.6 billion for satellite - less than 7% of overall radio broadcasting revenues.
  • In market value, terrestrial stations have an estimated enterprise value, in aggregate, of about $82 billion as compared to about $9 billion for XM and Sirius combined.
  • XM and Sirius compete in a complex and dynamic market. When iPods and other digital audio media are considered in addition to terrestrial broadcasting, satellite's revenue share falls to 4%.


Consumers will benefit from the proposed merger.

  • By combining two small players in the audio entertainment market, the transaction will bring economic vitality to satellite radio. This, in turn, will sustain a wide range of valuable consumer options and spawn new services and products.
  • Consumers benefit from lower-cost products and services, as well as wider program choice.  By combining operations, satellite operators seek to create greater scale economies in radio receivers, and to supply a wider array of popular programming to subscribers.



There is intense inter-modal competition among providers of audio entertainment.

  • Consumers have a wide range of audio entertainment choices, including advertising-supported terrestrial broadcasting, subscription satellite radio, MP3 devices, and other emerging digital media. The fact that there are widely disparate pricing models among these platforms demonstrates that the competitive frontier is largely defined in terms of quality and convenience of service, rather than price.
  • Taking the fluid nature of the market into account, it is clear that satellite radio broadcasters are not dominant players but compete with a host of other products and services.



Investment analysts see the merger as an attempt by satellite radio providers to drive costs down and to offer a more competitive product.

  • Independent projections show an increase in subscriber growth and more programming choices -- a strongly pro-consumer outcome.
  • A merger that reduces effective prices to subscribers and delivers billions of dollars worth of cost saving efficiencies is in the public interest under either a "consumer welfare" or a "total welfare" standard.

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Comments

I guess this explains why he isn't working for the FCC anymore. Economists are about as reliable as weathermen. Like most academians of this type, this over-educated idiot naively believes that most company managers always do what is best for the long-term interests of their companies. The Xirius company managers will do what is best for the short-term interests of their wallets.

They're going to squeeze as much out of the merged company as they can, and they're going to do it in as short a time as possible.

Millions of people will pay for satellite and/or cell phone radio as long as the programming is much more diverse and interesting than the programming on terrestrial radio - commercials or no commercials. Not everyone wants to listen to a self-programmed list of songs on an iPod as their only form of music entertainment. Many, many people prefer the spontaneous, unpredictable mix of songs that jump out at them over their radios - commercials or no commercials.

Mel knows this, and he will use it to his full advantage. He was the king of advertising revenue when he worked for the terrestrial radio industry. This made him millions, and he's looking to make more millions. He will make them by putting commercials on the music channels.

Most of the people who post on this web site won't continue to subscribe to sattelite radio when he does this, but millions of other people will, particularly when internet radio fades away due to the recent royalty ruling and the cell phone companies follow Mel's lead when it comes to putting commercials on their music programming.

Don't say you weren't warned.

cough cough... Bullshit Cough cough...

No Merger!

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