Peck: Sirius' growth strong; merger by year end

Wednesday, October 31, 2007 at 11:17 AM
Tags: Analysts, Merger, SIRI, Sirius

SIRIBear Stearns analyst Robert Peck issued a client note this morning stating that growth of Sirius remains strong, and they still expect the merger to be approved by year-end.

Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (SIRI) stock dropped roughly 9% yesterday amid concerns that the DOJ process would be extended. But its Bear Stearns' view that the merger remains on-track and will close by year-end. Peck reiterated his Outperform rating, adding "Sirius could be worth about $5.50/share at YE'08."

Peck was also impressed with Sirius' results announced yesterday, with the company having had beat out many of Bear Stearns' estimates (sans total revenue which was impacted by higher than expected OEM gross adds).

Sirius' stock is up 3.65% this morning,

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Comments

Quite different than Jacoby's analysis, wouldn't you say Ryan?

http://www.alleyinsider.com/2007/10/sirius-siri-stinks-sell-it.html

Ryan, why don't you post this? Please don't turn in to a Pro Merger Pro Sirius blog like SSG/Sirius Buzz.

http://www.fmqb.com/Article.asp?id=501279

http://www.fmqb.com/Article.asp?id=499886

Ya think these might just be important too Ryan? Who's payin ya to ignore some of this stuff?

What happened to the XM enabled All Tell moterolla phone?

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/071018/20071018005557.html?.v=2

Funny how this was on the news wires but AP never picked it up... and neither did any Blogs. Yahoo did not even pick this up. something stinks

Hoo Hoo, Jeff,

Knock it off! My raise may depend on Sirius' phony numbers. Tell 'em Mel.

I take ANY analyst outlook with a grain of salt. You have two opposing views on the situation, and neither has a great track record.

Fact is, this hasn't been a great year for either company. Until they stop the losses and start the profits, there shouldn't be any cheering from either camp.

I think Ryan didn't post it this time was because it was old news. I believe I read that year months ago.

@Jeff: I try my best to provide both sides of the story as much as possible (note the Jacoby article posted yesterday). But understand that I have a limited amount of human-bandwidth available - I on average post 5 or so articles a DAY - so admittedly a lot of stuff slips through the cracks. Sorry, there's just only so much that one man can handle. I wish I could show everyone how many stories I have in my "pending" box right now - literally hundreds.

1. I hadn't seen the Silicon Alley Insider post yet. I'll take a look, thanks.
2. I saw the FMQB articles (FMQB by the way, is by far one of my favorite trade pubs - Mike Parrish rules), but wasn't sure if posting about Media Ownership + Radio was something people were really interested in. Media ownership has been in the news all over the place, and been debated about for years (and, it's somewhat of a snore-fest after a while). I covered it a bit here but haven't really dedicated much resources to writing about it.
3. The Alltel/XM Radio Mobile thing isn't really that big of a deal. It's just another phone that supports XMRM. Hey cool. But AT&T releases one of those at least once a month. I covered the Alltel + XM partnership last year, but after seeing how many phones continue to be released with support for both XM and Sirius' mobile services - I figure people would get bored over them.

Look, no one is PAYING ME to write stuff other than the retailers who sponsor the site (ahem... and if you wouldn't mind visiting and doing business with them, I would very much appreciate it). But if you think there's some sort of conspiracy backing behind this site, you're dead wrong.

I still have a dayjob that has NOTHING to do with satellite radio. I have ZERO financial relationship with either XM or Sirius. And I've gone out of my way to ensure that. I own no stock. I accept no money. And I have to send back those fancy radios that I review. (and for the record, Sirius has NEVER sent me a unit to review... EVER) I've dedicated over 3 years of my life to this site, simply because I love the industry. Stupid? Yes, probably. Just ask my wife. Sure the money I get from sponsorship helps justify the ridiculous amount of time I spend working on Orbitcast, but it sure as hell isn't enough to pay the bills, let alone to fund some sort of secret agenda.

I support the merger. I've never made any secrets about that.

I also VERY MUCH believe in allowing those who oppose my opinion to voice that here on the site. Hell, I LOVE StackPointer's vehement opposition to the merger - BECAUSE OPPOSING VIEWS MAKE YOU THINK. So I welcome them. Look through the comments. There's no censorship. Look at the forums. There's no censorship. I hate the squelching of opinions simply because the prevents us from having an open and honest conversation. Orbitcast has been and always will be a place of FULL TRANSPARENCY.

I'm sorry for the long comment, but it infuriates me to no end when I hear these accusations. /rant

Thanks For the response Ryan, Yes its a rant, and Yes I am having a bad day. After some thought I realized that Without Orbitcast, I would be even more in the dark.

Hey no biggy, I've just been taking it from all angles myself. Honestly, if there's something you think is important, just g'head and shoot me an email - ryans@orbitcast.com - I try to respond to most of them (though lately I haven't been very good at it... sorry all). It's still really the best way to grab my attention.

...group hug? :)

Details, shmeetails! Hoo Hoo is right. We can't let the shareholders know that the revenue we get from the OEM subscriptions is substantially less than revenue that we get from retail subscriptions because the OEMs pay us much less for their subscriptions (i.e., the subscriptions are heavily discounted). We'll just keep reporting both types of subscriptions collectively to make the shareholders think that the revenue from both of them is the same.

Judging by the preponderance of hackish "Hoo Hoo" remarks in this thread, it looks like (once again) the three 0.0 "pests" on this blog continue to spin desperately due to the success of Sirius (thanks, Howard!) and the downward spiral of their middle-aged "b-b-boys" on both terrestrial and satrad.

Crash and burn, clones. Crash and burn.

What if the investors think that Sirius radio is doing fine without the merger and think that adding XM would be like adding dead weight to the company and vote to deny the merger??

That's exactly what XM shareholders are thinking dummy.

And SatMan, come on, let everyone know who you are...

SatRadMadMan,
I have XM, I listen to O&A, but have friends who listen to Howard, and have sirius just for that. It would be absolutely stupid to say Howard had no impact on Sirius subs, and I know sometimes extreme fans (well, stupid fans) will try to spin. The facts though, are the facts. O&A were on with Eric Logan the other day and it was pretty much brought to light that although O&A were completely under represented in those Arbitron ratings, so were Howard. They acknowledged that they, as well as Howard, have more listeners then the ratings stated. I am not going to get into the details of it, but the information is there. They also admitted that Howard probably does have more Sat. Rad. listeners then they do, and part of it is due to the multiple platforms that you can listen to the show (XM, FM, Audible, Pal Talk, etc...) My problem with you is that you try to turn actual blog articles that Ryan posts, and turn them into a "Stern vs O&A" arguement. I do not listen to Howard, simply cause I never got into him, and I happened to get into O&A. Who really cares though?? I sure don't. At some point, it would be great if you could make some intelligent posts in response to Ryan's blog and contribute, instead of hanging on to this old arguement that is way beyond tired. Come on, join the big boy discussion and grow up.

Why is it that the stock dropped down amid the great results for SIRI? was it just the DOJ extension talk? Seems like the stock should go up with another positive quarter.

Why is it that the stock dropped down amid the great results for SIRI? was it just the DOJ extension talk? Seems like the stock should go up with another positive quarter.

because sirius appearing to be "strong" can hurt its merger chances in the eyes of the guberment. two companies that are "merging to survive" stand a lot better of a chance than a company that is doing well and simply buying its brethern for fun.

xmsr and siri have been crawling upwards lately in anticipation of a merger...any news that the merger could be delayed or denied will remove that "anticipation premium" from the price. there are many, many investors out there who firmly believe that the only way these companies will survive in the long term will be to merge; if there's no merger, there's no future for the companies, and therefore no value in the stock.

Actually I don't think email is the best way to grab your attention Ryan. I think the best way, is accusing you of being a shil for Sirius. That seemed to get a huge response! You blogging commie.

Mike, points taken - but my comments were in response to the obvious "pest" posts preceding mine. So please, don't preach to me about turning this into a "Stern vs. O&A" argument. Fact is, there IS no "Stern vs. O&A". There is only "O&A vs. Reality".

If the "pests" would just STFU with their delusional one-way "war", Stern fans would pay them no mind.

@pfreak

OK dude, you caught me! I'm the GREASEMAN! WADDLE DIDDLE DADDLE!

(or am I Mancow?)

*rolleyes*

Hoo Hoo, SatRadMadMan, I still want my raise.

Sorry, Hoo Hoo, $500,000,000 for 1.2 million subscriptions isn't grounds for a raise. It grounds for a good kick in the ass maybe, but not a raise.

O & A are a bargain compared to you. No offence

"O & A are a bargain compared to you"

Apparently, those hacks weren't even worth keeping on the air in Philadelphia and WPB.

Failure is NEVER a "bargain".

Easy there SatRadMadMan, we're talking about the number of satellite radio subscriptions that O & A bring in, not the number of their terrestrial radio listeners. The shock jock medium is dead in terrestrial radio. The Imus fiasco killed it.

I may be a shyster and a phony, but I know my satellite and terrestrial radio markets.

Hoo Hoo wouldn't do much better if he went back to terrestrial radio in this PC environment.

Hoo Hoo, Mel. Maybe terrestrial radio will pay me $500,000,000 to make a come-back. It wouldn't be any more stupid than you and Sirius paying me $500,000,000 to switch from terrestrial to satellite radio. Hoo Hoo

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