Report: DoJ Antitrust Chief to approve merger

Reports have come in today claiming that Thomas Barnett, Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division will approve the Sirius-XM merger, according to a Cowen & Company note issued today.
While no official announcement has been made, the reports have sent Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (SIRI) and XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. (XMSR) stock soaring up nearly 6% today, despite a relatively weaker market. According to Cowen & Company analyst Tom Watts, the Antitrust Chief's approval would come "despite a staff recommendation against the deal."
In addition, it's reported that the announcement of a decision also might arrive as early as next week.
Watts notes that the pattern of the Antitrust Chief acting contrary to his staff's recommendations would be similar to the approval of the Whirlpool-Maytag merger of 2006. The Antitrust Chief ultimately approved the Whirlpool-Maytag merger, despite that DoJ staff was reported to be positioning to block the deal.
Cowen & Company continue to expect the Sirius-XM merger to be approved, and "take encouragement" from word that a decision come as soon as next week.


Comments
WOW!!! Ryan WOW!!!! What a post! Please post follow-ups this weekend. Thanks!
Posted by: MUSCLE13 | November 2, 2007 2:34 PM
The deak should be approved and should have been approved a long time ago, but the biggest reason for an approval now is because of the holiday shopping season about to start and retail numbers from both companies show consumers are waiting to purchase and subscribe to get both services. I think it is very important the DOJ makes an official announcement as soon as possible, and next week would be warranted. THe delay has only hurt consumers who already have the products and subscriptions who could be saving up to 50% on their subscriptions already, and the delay has hurt the companies some what as well. I will be glad when this is merged and we can get back to business fundamentals that are growing like crazy in SIRI.
Posted by: Kevin | November 2, 2007 2:35 PM
another article about Georgetown partners. Can't believe some firms are even considered viable with their obvious bias.
http://www.nlpc.org/gip/cef-e/e-b.htm
Jackson and Davenport of Georgetown Partners
Posted by: Little Bitty | November 2, 2007 2:47 PM
and another....
Davenport (Georgetown Partners) has Jackson as rep, Jackson is friend of Sutton....who owns radio stations
does the FCC know this?
Posted by: Little Bitty | November 2, 2007 2:51 PM
yes i think they know its a land grab only..
Posted by: tim wallick | November 2, 2007 2:59 PM
Barrons got it too Ryan!
http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2007/11/02/xm-sirius-higher-on-talk-doj-official-backs-deal/
Posted by: MUSCLE13 | November 2, 2007 3:05 PM
Yeah, Alrite!
Posted by: Anonymous Coward | November 2, 2007 3:19 PM
...wha...wha? It's almost over? Finally...
...but, I'll believe it when I see it.
Posted by: JckMyrhffr | November 2, 2007 4:03 PM
Now Twice has the story Ryan
http://www.twice.com/index.asp?layout=article&articleid=CA6497050&desc=topstory
Posted by: MUSCLE13 | November 2, 2007 4:11 PM
@MUSCLE13: Thanks, I hadn't seen the Barron's piece.
Posted by: Ryan Saghir | November 2, 2007 4:13 PM
If this is true (and I sure hope it is) then, to me, this is further proof that "analysts" are nothing but robber barons.
On Wednesday, Oct 31, the analyst for Goldman Sux (Dan Frommer) issued a "sell immediately" recommendation on SIRI stock.
By doing this, he helped force the share price down by convincing the weak retail holders to dump their shares before this news broke. Why else use the headline "Sell immediately?" Cuz he knew he didn't have much time.
Now others (probably friends and family at GS) could snap them up at the lower price.
All lies. Absolute crooks. Never trust them !!
Oh, and by the way, between 3/31/07 and 6/30/07, GS increased their SIRI holdings, going from 1 million shares to 2.2 million shares. I don't know how many they added since 6/30/07.
http://www.alleyinsider.com/2007/10/sirius-siri-stinks-sell-it.html
Posted by: BruceInAustin | November 2, 2007 4:15 PM
@Ryan "Thanks, I hadn't seen the Barron's piece."
From what I can see you broke the story about before Barrons did Ryan.
Posted by: MUSCLE13 | November 2, 2007 4:22 PM
@Ryan "Thanks, I hadn't seen the Barron's piece."
From what I can see you broke the story before Barrons did Ryan.
Posted by: MUSCLE13 | November 2, 2007 4:22 PM
Correction to "Sell Immediately" post:
The GS "analyst" is Mark Wienkes, not Dan Frommer.
Dan was just the reporter for Silicon Valley Insider. Sorry Dan.
Posted by: BruceInAustin | November 2, 2007 4:25 PM
An approval despite staff recommendations against it. Not sure what it says, but it definitely says something. Raises at least a couple of questions--
- Why have the staff provide a recommendation if you're going to ignore it?
- Why did the staff recommend against allowing the merger in the first place?
Posted by: StackPointer | November 2, 2007 4:45 PM
Now Tyler has the story
http://siriusbuzz.com/cowen-issues-positive-merger-note.php
Posted by: MUSCLE13 | November 2, 2007 4:49 PM
I wonder what good old JJ at BOA will have to say?
Posted by: Mrwirez | November 2, 2007 4:50 PM
@Mrwirez - I wonder what good old JJ at BOA will have to say?
I bet he downgrades again! How can he ever be positive?
Posted by: Anonymous Coward | November 2, 2007 4:53 PM
The analyst who wrote the note that's the basis for all the rumors has been pumping the merger from the start. Hmm, let's see, XM and Sirius stock go down way more than the overall market on Thursday, and today there happens to be a rumor that the merger is a done deal. Sounds kind of convenient. Oh, and you might to double check the Barrons site. It has the following update which definitely makes the report seem a little fishy"
UPDATE: So, apparently Cowen’s Tom Watts and his colleague Shaun Parvez are not answering any press questions on their note. A source tells me that the “reports” in question did not involve a news source or other printed matter, but rather their own sources. If anyone else has any details - any Cowen clients out there, for instance - please pass ‘em along.
If he had any hard evidence, why not answer the phone? I'm thinking it might be a good idea to short siri and xmsr for Monday.
Posted by: anon | November 2, 2007 7:04 PM
>> If he had any hard evidence, why not answer the phone? I'm thinking it might be a good idea to short siri and xmsr for Monday.
Tom Watts would not be making this remark without something to give him a great deal of confidence in his information. It could be he turns out to be wrong, but I don't think there is a chance in hell he is saying this without some pretty good information on the subject.
Posted by: StackPointer | November 2, 2007 7:41 PM
Rehr should be working on his resume real soon :)-
Posted by: rich | November 2, 2007 8:25 PM
FINALLY!!! I can drop my subscription to XM radio... hello i-tunes...i-pod.. i-radio.. i-flush the satellite radio down the toilet...
Posted by: harry hardon | November 2, 2007 8:30 PM
If this is true, you can kiss "choice" goodbye! Here comes the dumbing-down of XM radio to the Sirius level - endless repetition, shallow playlists, and the loss of some truly great channels. Internet radio, anyone?
Posted by: Anonymous Coward | November 3, 2007 10:48 AM
have you anti merger guys been rgiht about anything yet? i mean really. stop your whining. Obviously they know what teh most listened to channels are and what people want. they will make it the best of bost worlds.
Posted by: dave | November 3, 2007 1:31 PM
If the merger happens, I'll continue being a XM subscriber, but If I hear Sirius programming and bad playlists, I will be touching a iPod touch soon.
Posted by: Alex | November 3, 2007 3:11 PM
Ryan - If Cowen is correct, is there any word on whether the DOJ and the FCC will make a joint announcement or does the FCC let the DOJ announce first?
Posted by: MUSCLE13 | November 3, 2007 7:32 PM
The buzz is that after the merger Sirius will be moving more to all video and XM will have the audio channels.
Posted by: Anonymous | November 4, 2007 4:05 AM
.> The buzz is that after the merger Sirius will be moving more to all video and XM will have the audio channels.
The "buzz"? LMAO.
Video is a horrible money loser and Sirius knows it and have all but said it.
It is there because that's what it took to get DCX onboard with ramping up factory installs. And for no other reason.
SIRI knows they'll never make a nickel on it.
Posted by: StackPointer | November 4, 2007 9:43 AM
Radio and Records has the story too
http://www.radioandrecords.com/RRWebSite/NewsStoryPage.aspx?ContentID=AA%2feEfsKF7M%3d&Version=1
Posted by: MUSCLE13 | November 4, 2007 6:22 PM
OTR driver's just love sat radio service. There's one heck of a lot of driver's over the road. When I was on the road I had both services and switched back and forth depending on sporting events available. Don't know if it's a large enough base to keep sat rad afloat, but a few million trucks out there.
Posted by: Anonymous Coward | November 4, 2007 9:16 PM
Merger Denied
Posted by: mflynn | November 5, 2007 11:50 AM
"If this is true, you can kiss "choice" goodbye! Here comes the dumbing-down of XM radio to the Sirius level - endless repetition, shallow playlists, and the loss of some truly great channels. Internet radio, anyone?"
Say goodbye to commercial free as well. Ol' piano keys teeth will load up your favorite stations with ads for penis enhancement, Beeceuticals, and Hemorrelief...
Posted by: Frank the Frowner | November 5, 2007 1:53 PM