The merger between Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. and XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. will likely get the DOJ's seal of approval by the end of this year, with the FCC predicted to follow suit in early February, according to RBC Capital analyst David Bank.
In a recent research note, RBC wrote that their sources in D.C. indicated that the DOJ is likely to approve the merger before the end of the year. While reports of an imminent decision were obviously incorrect, RBC still finds that Assistant Attorney General Thomas Barnett - who ultimately rules on the merger - will be leaning towards an approval.
At this point, the FCC's 180-day timeclock has become "immaterial" (obviously) and Bank estimates that the FCC won't make a final decision on the Sirius-XM merger until "early February at best." RBC sources indicate that the FCC is predicted to be 1-2 months away from fleshing out all the conditions to the merger (such as pricing, interoperability, unused bandwidth, indecency, etc.).
The FCC also recently began publishing a list of "Items on Circulation" - a weekly list used to provide better transparency into what the Commission is currently reviewing - and the Sirius-XM merger is not on the list. So a decision by the year-end is unlikely.
Remember that the DOJ looks at competition as far out as two years from now when analyzing the marketplace.
A year ago, Apple and Google were not players in mobile devices, and Microsoft was not behind a disruptive force for in-vehicle entertainment. Bank, citing the iPhone specifically, feels that mobile audio entertainment on cellphones "will likely be ubiquitous" using this perspective.
Thanks Sam!
>1-2 months away from fleshing out all the conditions
>to the merger (such as pricing, interoperability, unused
> bandwidth, indecency, etc.).
Yeah, because that's why I pay $12.99 per month for satellite radio - so it can be regulated by the government so oh-so-delicate ears don't hear the word 'titties'. Don't like off-color language? Don't get satellite radio - or better yet - learn to use the parental controls.
Everybody loves rumors. Really wish one of them would come true. I hope more analysts chime in.
"indecency" ??????? wtf
Well looks like we got a longer reprieve on O&A to Podcast Willy time. Too bad. I can't wait to see them thrown on their asses. And with indecency rules, their XM show will be as neutered as their terrestrial broadcast, which everybody else says is revolting, to the three people who listen. Nobody will ever listen if they get regulated.
Bye bye bitches! Howard Stern always wins.
You guys are reading way too much into this this indecency mention. It likely means opt out credit for adult programs and blocking features.
The law protects consumers who pay for adult material or programming - ie Playboy. Are you commentors going to start an argument now over censorship when its a non- issue? Wake up!
*sigh* I fucking hate trolls. That is all.
Thank you!
O&A are the most talented comedy minds of our time!
I am their biggest fan and have personally memorized and recorded every minute of their show for the last 5yrs. ;)
Why should we believe this guy any more than the last 2-3 times he predicted approval of the merger? Did he suddenly get smarter? Seems like these guys just keep predicting that it'll be over every month or so, figuring that sooner or later they'll be right and they can tell their clients what geniuses they are. Jeez.
"And with indecency rules, their XM show will be as neutered as their terrestrial broadcast"
Yeah, and in a merged company, Howard will some how magically be exempt from the same rules.
Next thing you know, we'll all be hearing about how Bush is out to get Howard Stern all over again. It'll be the same old tired show he did on FM...
Anyone know what this relates to?
Whatever.
thj
It appears that that the government is "squeezing" both Sirius and XM to get all the concessions out them that they want. A limit on decency could be one more thing on the table. As it's all happening behind closed doors (LOL), anything goes.
Muscle, maybe you're not reading enough into it. "It likely means...", you have no idea what it means. When you put FCC and indecency together it is never a good thing.
Coward, #1 podcast on iTunes, shitdick.
OMG!!
When will these Stern Fags realize that O&A always win in the end.....
Get used to em....very soon, that Sirius receiver will soon have XM 202
Its getting to the point where I am almost embarrased for Stern and OA fans..It says a lot when a meaningful story gets posted on Orbitcast and it gets a couple comments, but if something OA or Stern gets posted it gets 100 in 30min.. Its funny to watch people so much more into who tells funnier fart jokes then their savings and investments.. Anyway with only about 10 trading days till 08 its nice to know a 30-50% pop could be lurking on one of them, but lets not talk about that..lets get back to whose cooler, the pests or the stern fans..I mean bc in the end thats really whats important...
Forget the O&A and Stern debates and forget the indecency debates ...... if you can. Does anyone know the date of the actual Banks piece ... or better yet actually have the Banks release for RBC?
Forget the O&A and Stern debates and forget the indecency debates ...... if you can. Does anyone know the date of the actual Banks piece ... or better yet actually have the Banks release for RBC?
sdars is on the list, whats not clear is exactly what its for. or how broad it may reach..
11/20/2007 IB 95-91 Establishment of Rules and Policies for the Digital Audio Radio Satellite Service in the 2310-2360 MHz Frequency Band
"Forget the O&A and Stern debates and forget the indecency debates ...... if you can. Does anyone know the date of the actual Banks piece ... or better yet actually have the Banks release for RBC?"
12/14
So is this "analyst" the same one who said the merger was going to be approved like 3-4 weeks ago? Its all a guessing game!
No, this is David Bank from RBC. The analyst who predicted the merger was imminent was Bob Peck from Bear Stearns. I'm sure Bob had a solid source or else he wouldn't have put his neck on the line, but as with anything in government - things can get delayed. Both analysts are solid and know what they're talking about.
I think Bank is trying to mitigate expectations of approval from the FCC. Remember, "early February" is actually not that far away.
@Smokey: The client note was issued on Friday
@Tim: Yes, I saw that was on the FCC's list (and you brought it up in the Orbitcast Forums a few weeks ago) but I have no clue what it relates to. If it was merger related, I'm sure we would have heard about it.
bapamex, keep in mind that the stern and oa fans are the ones who have bought alot of the systems and more importantly the subs! they might be alitttle over the top sometimes but you got to give them credit for the growth in the companies expecially sirius.
I only have one Sirius sub, but a shitload of stock and a few options in 08
Yeah I realize that people buy for Stern, OA, etc. But that doesnt mean they are not completely rediculous and brain dead. My point was how sad they have all become. I would have said years ago, that many stern fans and OA fans are sad people but many are not, but the "are nots" are becoming less and less. They are a very embarrassing group of people. And not because of indecency, I dont really care what the hell is said over paid airways, just for how they are so obcessed about something so stupid, when something very important is going on with these two companies. You can see my point by looking at the OA thing on podcasts posted having almost 40 comments within hours, yet something about the merger gets 1/2 and most of the comments still are about stern. There is a ton of money to get made or lost in the coming weeks, yet the most talked about thing is who tells better boobie jokes howard or Opie..to each there own I guess, just sad to watch..
what the hell is O&A? do you guys mean Q&A?
what the hell is O&A? do you guys mean Q&A?
In June of 2006 I suggested on 411 and SBD (Sirius Back Door the Gay site) that this merger would be proposed and completed.
I'm sticking to it and adding more.
PPS will be 6.50 when approved. Deal is worth 20-22 billion.
Homer (that XM plant) still sucks me too.
Who would have believed that Parsons and Panero got their asses kicked, diced and eaten by a late bloomer that happened to hire ONE man.
This as P&P couldn't make a decision on Howard.
Untalented Chumps @ XMSR. Mel should let them swing now and pay the 175.