say it aint so. please say it aint so.

I will beleive it when Isee it.

It's about time assuming that it happens today.

YEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAHHHH!!! HERE WE GO!!!!

(BEEP BEEP BEEP)you can hear the moving trucks backing in to 0.0 studios to toss the morning zoo hacks out of XM

"step into my office...why?...cause your fuckin fired!"

i believe it when i see it but the stocks are way up on the open this morning--look at xm

i still think no one has a clue so they are guessing--someone will be right

Thanks Ryan. I hope Bear Stearns is correct. Its about time! How long has this gone on already?

XMSR up 1.11 as of 10:24am EST
SIRI up 0.11

>>> XMSR up 1.11 as of 10:24am EST
>>> SIRI up 0.11

Is that all we get?

Do you think SIRI won't even make it to 5 on the merger announcement?

We will have given up satellite radio, this thing we have expected so much of for the last 7 years, and we can't get a little more than THAT?

Before satellite radio (both as a service and as an investment) is totally destroyed, it would be nice to get one final opportunity to bail out with a little gain.

My understanding is that the FCC decision should be expected about a week after the DoJ announcement...

I am sure as hell not looking at the stock price on a possible merger approval date. I am looking at the stock price a year from merger approval date with 20 million + subs and deals with every car company. This is the AOL of the mid 90s all over again but this time with Content. I can't wait!

>>> I am looking at the stock price a year from merger approval date with 20 million + subs and deals with every car company. This is the AOL of the mid 90s all over again but this time with Content. I can't wait!

Ha! I know you are excited.

But it would take a damned fool to stay in this stock past the initial pop. The chance of profits in the next several years is nil. And the chance of the kind of REAL profits once anticipated for XM? Dead. Absolutely dead.

That are a TON of other investments out there that offer 10x the potential of a merged XM/SIRI.

Stack - I am hoping after the possible merger announcement Jacoby keeps bashing the price down so there are more buying opportunities. I honestly believe that you could be looking at 50 million + subs here in several years with multiple billions in free cash flow.

>>> I honestly believe that you could be looking at 50 million + subs here in several years with multiple billions in free cash flow.

Take a xanax, man.

Assume 2.5% monthly churn. Assume that, starting tomorrow, the OEM penetration rate is 75%. Assume you're starting with 16,000,000 subscribers. Assume no further competition from all these sources (cell phones, Wimax, etc.) you claim will be there.

Now, quick, how many subscribers do you have after 10 years (hint: requires nothing more than addition and subtraction)?

Answer:

That's right. The most favorable conditions imaginable and MergeCo cannot muster 40M subscribers in 10 years.

That's right. 10 years, and you STILL can't top 50M and that is assuming 3/4 of all cars purchased in the country have OEM installed sat radio, and that that can be done without increasing churn from current levels. Yet, you're assuming "50 Million in a few years".

You're a real media genius.

I will miss XM radio. I really liked the musical diversity and baseball coverage.

Under crushing debt, Sirius will destroy it all.

Stack - Please read what I said. I said several years. Plus I believe Satellite goes standard in cars by 2010 or 2011 with probable 90% OEM penetration rates. Plus I believe we see a reinvigorated retail environment with Dual receivers, A La Carte receivers, and new distribution outlets in cell phones and GPS car devices. I say 50 million + subs easy by your target date. Easy. I also see well over a billion in free cash flow in a couple of years - 2010. Maybe a couple of billion by then.

>>>> Please read what I said. I said several years. Plus I believe Satellite goes standard in cars by 2010 or 2011 with probable 90% OEM penetration rates. Plus I believe we see a reinvigorated retail environment with Dual receivers, A La Carte receivers, and new distribution outlets in cell phones and GPS car devices. I say 50 million + subs easy by your target date.

I see large boxes full of $100 bills dropping from the sky.

I'm with Mark.

So long, old friend.

I'm with Mark.

So long, old friend.

I'm with Mark.

So long, old friend.

Im with Mark also. Fuck Mel, Stern, and Sirius.

As of 11:57am EST

XMSR - +1.92
SIRI - + 0/26

screw Sat. Radio, Listen to Lenay D's Saturday Morning Muscial tribute to the 50's. It is free and fun.

screw Sat. Radio, Listen to Lenay D's Saturday Morning Muscial tribute to the 50's. It is free and fun.

screw Sat. Radio, Listen to Lenay D's Saturday Morning Muscial tribute to the 50's. It is free and fun.

It looks like all of you fools are still not getting the point. It doesn't matter what the DOJ announces, the FCC is going to block the merger based on the fact that both XM and SIRI signed an agreement never to merge. There is nothing that you can do about it. The deal is off. Go back to you burgers and practice flipping them, because you aint gettin rich off this dud.

Oh,
And Ahhh! Gooday!

As long as sat radio is 1-way, it will die off. There talking rollouts of 100Mbps 4G cellular in 2009 already. You have the 700MHz spectrum auction in January which will be used for open wireless networks (BTW, 700MHz spectrum penetrates through walls and is far reaching) after analog TV ends in Feb 09.

3G bandwidth is already enough for streaming customized radio content. Why listen to canned programming when you can listen to customized radio stations based on your own listening preferences? Satellite will never have enough bandwidth for this, and has no 2 way communication. Satellite radio will suffer the same fate as satellite ISPs in the next decade.

I too, am with Mark.

I will miss XM. Whatever they call the merged company will become the same wasteland Karmazen turned terrestrial radio into.

Regardless of what the hacks say, the merger will NOT benefit the consumer. Mergers never have, and never do.

Goodbye XM, it was a great ride while it lasted. Nothing good ever survives the fecal touch of Mel Karmazen.

Ol' Mell will make a nice pot of money, and punch out. The listeners will be stuck with the shitty aftermath.

Thanks a LOT Mel. If I didn't know better, I would think it's personal. Everyone get ready for puddle deep playlists and wall to wall bobaboie bobaboie Howard Stern's penis....

So long XM....it sure was grand.....ahhh well good things never last....thanks for the soundtrack Lee. It kinda feels like what the death of AOR in the seventies must have been like. Seems now that FM will be the new AM.....Sirius will be the new FM and Internet Radio as well as portable digital media will be edge of whats breaking out there. The Darwin Theory of audio entertainment in full effect.....

I have a bad/good feeling that the deal is going to die. At first after the announcement of the merger, it almost seemed like that XM and Sirius weren't trying to compete against each other anymore. XM made a press release touting the fact they're the exclusive home to college football (go Mizzou!).

If the merger doesn't to through, it's the graveyard for Mel and Sirius. Maybe one of their OEM partners can help them out. Wait, nevermind. Both Ford and Chrysler aren't doing so well. Retail partner Radio Shack? Scratch that. Maybe a "good luck bro" is in order for the little doggy company.

Any chance SIRI could go international in the near future...wouldn't that open up the possibility of growth exceeding by far what is predicted assuming that SIRI stays in the U.S.??

Any chance SIRI could go international in the near future...wouldn't that open up the possibility of growth exceeding by far what is predicted assuming that SIRI stays in the U.S.??

Any chance SIRI could go international in the near future...wouldn't that open up the possibility of growth exceeding by far what is predicted assuming that SIRI stays in the U.S.??

Folks have to realize that the merged company will be a tremendous buyout candidate. Some media conglomerate will come in with big bucks and buy the combined company. It will NOT remain a subscription company because radio is an advertiser based media. The majority of the people are too darn cheap to pay even $6 a month. It's the way it is. Once it's a free service every car in the US, Canada and Mexico will have a satrad receiver installed. Many, if not most, homes will have it too. Mel's MO is to get involved with a company, build it up and then sell it. It will be the same deal here. Anyway, that's my take on it. There will be a lot of money to be made along the way.

Its not going to happen guys.

It's great that in a few years OEM satradio's will be standard but the fact is 99% of cars on the road are not new and will not have OEM radio's in them. OEM is not the be all end all. The vast majority of cars will not have a factory install and that's not going to change for decades until all the old cars are finally off the road.

@PFreak "It's great that in a few years OEM satradio's will be standard but the fact is 99% of cars on the road are not new and will not have OEM radio's in them. OEM is not the be all end all. The vast majority of cars will not have a factory install and that's not going to change for decades until all the old cars are finally off the road."

16-17 million new cars sold in this country every year. If it goes standard, the numbers of new subs each year will be mindboggling. And also the fact that there are 230 million cars on the road in this country means the retail aftermarket will be a key ingredient as well. I just wish this merger would close already.

Message to Stack: if you don't like the service in the aftermath of the merger, you can cancel it.

Problem solved.

Does anyone else find it curious that Mr. Peck of Bear Sterns, who has consistently supported the merger from the beginning, issued this note the day after XM and Sirius stock tanked while the rest of the market blows up? Very convenient, and it seems to have worked.

I sort of get a kick about all the future sub numbers being thrown around. It's like watching am Amway presentation where they're drawing circles and showing how your organization grows to the point that it exceeds the known population of the world. The bottom line is that subs need to paid monthly and most people are too frugal (cheap) to pay for radio service. To be a gangbuster success satrad has to be free which means at least some significant advertising to foot the bill. Then it will be installed and listened to in every car in North America.

Paul - 50 million subs would be about 2 out of every 10 cars on the road, which is 20%. You think that is an unreasonable target longterm for subs? I think its conservative if sat radio goes standard OEM.

.......or Tuesday or the next Friday or around March.... but soon... no doubt...

Muscle, that's exactly my point. All those millions of older cars on the road an no one buying at retail. Doesn't seem like there's a huge interest in the product and very few families buy new cars every year. It will be a while before OEM can really penetrate and give people a chance to experience sdars.

Pfreak -

How many sat radio subs are there today - about 16 million.

How many new cars are sold in the US each year - about 16 million EVERY YEAR.

If this merger goes through and sat radio goes standard OEM, OH MAN! You guys probably don't remember the buzz about Aol in the mid 90s as it was approaching the 20 million sub level. I couldn't go to the gym without somebody telling me about AOL. It was that big. Sat radio is approaching 20 mil subs in 2008. At that critical mass the buzz is going to be unbelievable. I already hear it in the gym.

You g

Hoo Hoo, everyone. We're going 50 million subs as soon as a my contract gets extended for another 5 years at $1,000,000,000. I'm worth it. Just as Mel. Hoo Hoo

'Hoo Hoo, everyone. We're going 50 million subs as soon as a my contract gets extended for another 5 years at $1,000,000,000. I'm worth it. Just as Mel. Hoo Hoo"

Are there still people here arguing Howard and O&A? Why? I mean how far removed are guys from reality. Thats not even yesterday's news. Thats more like last decade's news. Get into the present era. Have you guys been asleep for a decade?

what if they come together and they not only offer radio in cars but weather and traffic. XM has weather for aircraft, they can put it in cars. you can have live weather and traffic on your GPS in your car. The GPS could also tell you ways around the wether. I think in 5 years they will do great. RADIO IS NOT THE ONLY THING THEY HAVE!!!!

http://www.xmradio.com/specialty-services/index.xmc

I really hope this doesn't happen. I know the DoJ doesn't care what's best for the subscribers, but I hope they shut this down anyway. I find it interesting that the younger DoJ staffers know what's going on and they oppose it. The older ones are buying the line that satellite radio is just like webcasting and ipods and so this doesn't create a monopoly. BS, this is absolutely a monopoly in the making. The rich get richer and screw the consumers.