"You should assume that both companies would be having a board meeting prior to the March 1st drop dead date and after the boards have met that you will hear the result," said Sirius CEDO Mel Karmazin at yesterday's earnings call.
However, according to Financial Times, a source close to the situation said the process might take at least 1-2 months - and definitely less than 6 months - following a decision from the Justice Department. The source said the FCC "commissioners know the issues" and that he cannot see the deal being "tremendously delayed" thereafter.
He said he would advise XM and Sirius to extend the termination date another 3-6 months to be sure and give the FCC time to act.
A second source reports that he heard the DOJ was at an impasse because its staff had leaked information to the press that it did not believe the deal should go through. This is despite Assistant Attorney General Thomas Barnett's desire to push it through, the source added.
[Financial Times]
Thanks Gregg!
Someone is going to buy XM before that termination date.
MARK MY WORD AS AN ANONYMOUS COWARD!!!
The exodus of XM management has begun. Departure of a VP is conformed. Ranks are getting thinner and thinner. Look for more to come.
The exodus of XM management has begun. Departure of a VP is confirmed. Ranks are getting thinner and thinner. Look for more to come.
However, the person leaving is the wrong person to leave. Nate/Vernon, get your resignations in NOW!!!
I am so glad I left. I'm counting all my money again. It's a lot.
Who left now?
Try this XM goes BK and and that gives the FCC no choice but to approve the merger.
The DOJ then has no say in the matter . Sirius saves XM and gets them for a fair price not this merger of equals crap we have been handed.
I would not want to be holding any XM stock.
Is there such a thing as a filibuster in this type of thing?? I mean it seams like there are more road blocks being thrown up in the way of this being passed...
Essentially, no one at Justice has the balls to say "yes" or "no". If Justice are a bunch of cubicle cowards, someone needs to be fired. This is a travesty.
Who give's a rat's tail whether this goes through or not. Both companies' books are cooked to the point of being wee-done.
These cos are examples of stupid management doing stupid things and coming out with stupid looking results. Great Job Mel!1! Great Job Gary!!! Keep up the great work!!!
eik logan out
Erik Logan? Any confirmation? this may not be so bad. I heard it was a marketing guy.
I just wish it would hurry up already, irecently bought a Chevy HHR and it came with an XM reciever, but, I am already a Sirius customer. I don't want to swap due to my recent purchase of a 1 year subscription. If and when the merger is said and done I will be able to utilize my factory reciever in my HHR and therefor be able to give my Siruis reciever to my husband to use in his truck in turn will add more revenue to the company with another subscription. ENOUGH ALREADY! MAN UP AND GET THIS DONE!
You are SO RIGHT, Misty! I wish they would just get it done -- accept the fact that the premise for the merger was flimsy at best, and withdraw the paperwork. The longer this drags on, the more these companies are falling apart inside. And by the way, you won't be able to get Sirius programming on your XM receiver, merger or not. Just thought I'd point that out.
Here's the new merger scenario currently being discussed among analysts. They all IMHO could be very, verys wrong, but just read:
No news will come from either DoJ or FCC before March 1.
Saturday Midnight, March 1 the Merger Agreement between SIRI and XMSR will silently expire; no strings, no ties, no fines. Neither DoJ nor FCC needs to speak up before or after -- and they won't.
Situation open for renegotiation -- if they want to. But first Boards will meet and graciously extend the Merger Agreement another month until March 31, along the line of and following Kevin Martins 'end of 1st Quarter decision' statement. Meanwhile they discuss and sadly will not reach concensus onhow to move forward -- after March 31, 2008.
If renegotiation takes place SIRI, the buyer, will want a different share exchange ratio based on current valuations, which XMSR judges as insufficient and offensive. Parties disagree and propose, after March 31, to have their shareholders meet, propose and agree on say: 1-2-3 payment scenarios for a new Merger Agreement, yes -- going through the same DoJ and FCC hoops, but both with c. 100 fully trained-on-the job lawyers, who will rephrase their language to be very effective.
Meanwhile, business as usual: standalone; SIRI the stronger, developing business.
Neither DoJ nor FCC will venture to decide, pending the delicate extension, shareholder meetings and their outcome.
After March 31 the extension expires and -- alas, parties go their own way having consulted their shareholders.
The Merger Agreement is void; neither DoJ nor FCC needs to take a stand. Finito.
SIRI, thriving, as well as XMSR is again a standalone company, target for takeover by rich Media or Tech companies, running their respectiev businesses. No Monopoly nor Anti-Competitive situation present.
wow Isaac, Rotterdam, Holland - great comment overview and one I actually enjoyed reading.. very concise... and pausable.. I still sigh with all of this....
Sirius, who is the bleeding cashcow, is the good standalone and somehow XM gets bought out. Doubt that
What I see if that this merger just fails and then both are bought; XM going to the TimeWarner group of companies and Sirius with either Comcast, Newscorp, or Verizon.
A telecom or a media company wiill pick these two up. I doubt a tech such as Microsoft, Apple, Google, or Sony will as they have their own battles over the internet and the telecoms/media will have a better reason for their battles.
I like the idea of two satellite companies. I’m not crazy about this merger because it is going to have vast pitfalls. I’d prefer if a company bought XM currently not involved in satellite radio. Sirius programming does some right and some wrong and XM the same thing but combine the two it’s what Sirius decides to do with programming and that is not good. There are no alternatives.
>>> SIRI the stronger, developing business.
This concept continues to be bandied about, but it simply does not have a factual basis. If you adjust SIRI's subscriber #s, as you MUST, to compare them with XM's, you cannot make the case that Sirius is either stronger or "developing".
If it is Eric Logan--GOOD riddance. He is solely responsible for Jon Zellner and Steve Kingston. Two FM hacks who have literally ruined everything they've touched on XM.
SIRI has more funding behind and therefore will survive with or without the merger. XMSR needs the merger much more or they will be bought out.
Father Mott said,
>>>SIRI has more funding behind and therefore will survive with or without the merger. XMSR needs the merger much more or they will be bought out.
Unfortunately you are misinformed... XM has higher liquidity than Sirius, plus better cashflow and less need for future satellite replacement CAPEX. It is XM that will likely have higher future cash flow... Plus, since Sirius has not announced the replacement of the final 2 satellites yet -- analysts have not included them into their calculations. But Sirius themselves has indicated that they will replace all satellites within the next 3-4 years.
XM has $631 million in total liquidity as of 9/30/07... this is a fact, however XM has an approximate $45 million payment owed (and likely paid during Q4) to SoundExchange, plus $60 million owed on satellite replacement CAPEX.
Sirius has $539 million in total liquidity as of 12/31/07... yes, less than XM, this is a fact. However Sirius has an approximate $30 million payment owed and to paid here in Q1 to SoundExchange, plus another approximate $400 million owed on satellite CAPEX (to be paid by the end of 2009). Plus another $550 million in yet-to-be announced satellite CAPEX, that is to be paid between 2009 and 2011.
The proliferation of the belief that Sirius has "more funding" and better prospective "future cash flow" is quite amazing. However the facts don't support these claims. Paying nearly $1 billion over the next 4 years, while XM is paying $60 million -- does not equate to Sirius have better cashflow than XM. This is a common misconception that those that believe it are in for a big surprise.
All of the above info is easy to verify too.
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SOS-DD
How foolish the XM BOD's will be if they extend the merger agreement. Get out now while there's still time, and move forward. Why merge with that sinking ship called Siri?
First of all the guy that stated he bought a Chevy HHR is completely misguided!! 1st for buying an ugly Chrysler PT Cruiser wannabe and second for buying a Chevy! Why are you buying a domestic vehicle? Ford, GM & Chrysler don't know how to build a vehicle that most people want to buy. Wake up, you are living in the past! The domestics will continue to build poor quality vehicles and in doing so will continue to lose huge chunks of market share to Nissan, Honda & Toyota! Oh yeah, and this merger better go through, the programming on Sirius is far better than XM.
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