Sometimes it's amazing how little these people get it when it comes to the future of radio. Jeff Smulyan, chairman and CEO of Emmis Communications, was quoted in Hollywood Reporter: "No one has ever made a penny, anywhere in the world, on subscription-based radio."
Spare me your poisonous barbs! Please, it's not that XM and SIRIUS aren't making money, they just haven't reached CFBE yet. No biggy, wait a year there Jeff.
He goes on to say, "This doesn't mean that Sirius and XM won't make it. ... But even if you take the most wildly enthusiastic estimations of their penetration, they will reach 30 million Americans in the next five years, 40 million. Radio ... will probably still reach 275 million people a week."
I love the spin, as those numbers are not nearly as wildly enthusiastic as he makes them out to be (55 million according to Jupiter Research). But whatever, play your game. If terrestrial radio is truly reaching the 275 million people a week - which, ahem, is based upon Arbitron's wildly enthusiastic "extrapolation" numbers - then realize they're not as captive an audience as satellite radio. Soon, advertisers won't care about your big numbers.
See, advertisers want a captive audience - not necessarily a huge audience - because throwing money at the wall just doesn't cut it anymore. The numbers game is dying, and it will be all about verticals very soon. The world of media is changing: DVRs and VoD are threatening the 30-second spot, blogs and consumer media are threatening mainstream media, and yes satellite radio is threatening the radio landscape.
Come talk to us in five years, see how much you're laughing then.
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