NPD Group's November sales data continue to show - once again - a consecutive decline in satellite radio retail demand relative to last year.
For the fourth month in a row, year-over-year retail sales are on the decline - August: -3%; September: -12%; October: -25%; and now for November: unit sales are down 45%.
The Quick Glance:
- Sirius November 2006 Retail Sales:
Down 45% YoY - XM November 2006 Retail Sales:
Down 45% YoY
Marketshare:
- Sirius Nov '06 Retail Marketshare: 59%
- XM Nov '06 Retail Marketshare: 41%
While it's interesting that both Sirius and XM are down 45% from the same period last year, Sirius' retail marketshare jumped up from 56% in October to an impressive 59% in November. A clear indication that Sirius is handling the retail sector much better than XM is (regardless of the fact that NPD doesn't register all retail activity).
Anyone want to make some bets for December?
Let's ask Homer. Homer knows just how inconsequential this is.
I'm sure it will all be better tomorrow and that XM will be ruling the world soon.
Merry F'ing Christmas Satrad fans.
Happy Hanukkah Westfall.
I would venture to guess a big comback for XM in % for december. Remember how percentages can be made to look favorably depending on how you input the data. Sirius has the Stern effect last year. We all are pretty sure thats not the case for this year. If true sirius will take a bigger hit in december. Now what I can not figure out is if XM got more Gross Subs last year and even matched Sirius in retail Then how are they both down 45% and sirius has a 59% market share. I know... its NPD. But atleast try to make sense Huh?
down 45% !
sirius will never pay off their debt at this rate ! i'm sure xm will give you guys a discount on a radio if you turn in one of those toaster ovens that sirius makes .
woah..... 60/40 Sirius?!!! What happened? XM had made gains and it was only 55% Sirius to 45% XM. lol! Now with NASCAR jumping ship and Howard doing a Late Night Show push, doesnt look too good for XM again. Wow, i cant believe after the GM and MLB contract they cant beat out Sirius in retail still. Pathetic!
What happened with "The Oprah Effect"? Before you start lying about how Sirius is losing a bunch of money because of their deals, explain how XM is going to pay for Oprah? 55 million dollars for half an hour a week? I wonder why no one is coming to XM.
I put little faith into the marketshare numbers NPD provides anymore. Keep in mind that Radio Shack, which provides data to NPD, sells Sirius exclusively. Also keep in mind that NPD doesn't collect data from XM's own mall kiosks, Wal*Mart, and lots of other smaller electronics and car audio shops, which have traditionally shown to sell more XM than Sirius, especially the mall kiosks.
While I don't doubt that sales are down for both - what's scary is that it's down about the same for both - the marketshare numbers are skewed in Sirius' favor by at least 3-4%, and have been for a while now.
The OEM effect: it's far easier for someone considering both XM and a new car to simply ask for the factory option, whereas someone who insists on Sirius has to get the after-market radio off the shelf. This is, in effect, a retail sale (in that the consumer took the initiative) but it occurs in a car dealership rather than Best Buy.
As the factory pre-installed option becomes more ubiquitous we'll find that OEM and retail sales become less independent of each other. Sirius' retail strength is becoming more of a comment on its weakness in the more convenient, and hence first-choice, avenue.
What I'd find more illuminating is a breakdown of how portables are selling. I'd think that relatively few people are using Innos and Stilettos only in their cars, so how the portables are selling is maybe a better horse-race indicator.
Bridge update for 12/13 has XM taking 52% of retail for the first time that I can remember in a long time.
This is interesting and i want to see if it's maintained. IF it is, could Oprah be the reason ?
Howard is destroying XM. Get ready for a nose dive XMSR!