Satellite Radio Retail Sales Doldrums Continued in December

I'm happy for Stern and Sirius. The retail strength appears to be a trend that's not going away, which is what I expected.

Unfortunately, both stocks are getting killed today, as they generally seem to move in tandem...

Ouch. :(

Does NPD data consider on-line sales or just big box stores?

Early-adopters have bought 2,3,4 radios each (I have 5) and that makes subs grow quickly. Late-adopters are buying 1, maybe 2. The subs will come in slower now, but still steady.

Just 1 million/quarter combined still gives them 30 million by 2010. That ain't bad ! And if $$ for marketing the "retail" sector does increase, and IPODs get boring, sales should pick up.

concerning .. extreemly concerning even knowing that NPD does not include many outlets.. its a concerning trend for XM and overall..... but.. could this be a combination of two things. The "Stern Churn" or fall off from the stern effet combined with a much larger OEM presence across the board? EVEN the CD's adoption rate topped out .. what was it 4-6 million or so CD players for a multitude of years. If there is a saturation in the adoption rates or if consumers will only sign up so fast.. then flooding the OEM side will kill Retail sales. I wish we could examin the sales of CD players from the beginning to today. and look at the adoption rate of Sat rad as a whole. I just have to beleive there is much more here than "Sirius's content". I have no problem with their content at the same time I know I like XM's content much much better. I am not alone. So whats the real deal here? NPD is only a small part of the puzzel

i think XM had cheaper receivers the last 3 weeks of the year--Crutchfield top sellers were XM for the first time last month in a while--Sirius was down for last year, but to have a net increase of 900k is impressive--I wonder when the idiots will realize the Stern effect was a one year holiday increase--Now going into 2007 holiday sub comparision will be a much more realistic comp

Sirius did a "bang-up job" last month. Are you nuts? A 40% decline in YOY sales is a far cry from bang-up.

Have you heard of the old retail cliche, "We'll make it up on volume"? That's exactly what Sirius did- slashed margins in order to capture share. That has always been a piss poor strategy.

The stock dips can be attributed to the fact that the FCC Chief said that a SatRad merger would not be allowed to happen.

I think they are still in need of the Killer piece of Hardware. Plug and Play is getting more complicated instead of less.
I still want to get my first reciever. I'm thinking the way I may go may be a Car Head Unit with a front USB. Then a plug and play mp3 unit that can be powerd and controled from the usb Head unit? Am I right in thinking I can do that? Cut out the need for a power adapter and FM modulator.

Ryan, Sirius had a larger number of discounted radios???
XM had plenty of discounted radios, more than Sirius in fact, plus they gave a free month of service with free activation.

Sirius had the S50 for $80 after rebate, the startmate4 for $99 after rebate, the starmate replay for $60, the sportster replay for $79 and the stratus for its normal everyday msrp of $59.99 with no rebate and no free service!

XM had the roadyxt, sportcaster, and Xpress all available for $60 after rebates, with free activation and a free month. the skyfi2 was $99.99 after rebate with free activation, and a free month of service. also, the nexus products were available for less than $80 after rebates, with free service as well!

please elaborate for us how Sirius had a larger amount of discounted radios during the holiday season.

XM also had way more commercials running on TV. (melting snowman, reindeer dancing)

its not the radios that sell the service, or the advertising, or the rebates. its content. this is why sirius is winning in retail. Sirius' exclusive programming is more appealing to the consumer.

thanks again for your continued unbias reporting on DSR.

So where did you figure that Sirius had MORE discounted units than XM? I remember it the other way. In fact didn't XM have like 6 units for under $100 while Sirius only had 3 under $100.

And didn't XM also offer a free month and free activation to anyone who bought a new unit, as well as the MIR that were on the units? Wasn't the Nexus 25 down to like $30 during the holidays as well?

Sirius didn't have anything that low in their lineup. They also didn't offer any free months of service or free activations.

This is the second holiday season in a row that XM has spent a lot of money and have nothing to show for it. They did this 4Q 05 to try and make their numbers and failed, then again 4Q 06 to try and make their numbers and failed. XM is pulling out of the retail race because they lost. They realized the mistake they made, and should have spent the money on Stern. Sirius made the right choice and has been climbing ever since. Good for them, bad for XM.

Focus on OEM? Sure, thats the place to get them. Make the have your service! Then when all their friends who have Sirius convince them to buy Sirius instead they can go out and buy one of the Universal Devices to work in their OEM car.

Why focus only on OEM? Can't they do both? Sirius is doing it...and well at that!

It seems like, around here at least, the XM selection hasn't really rebounded since the FM mod changes. Most stores have a pretty limited selection (and quantity) of XM stuff, but more (and more) of Sirius still.

Again, Content makes the difference, and with the failure of Opie and Anthony, Oprah and MLB, XM had best hope for a merger. It seems the only way that XM will ever get any content worth listening too.

jkdillard1,
4Q of 05 xm gained about 900,000 subs ( their largest quarter ever ) and didn't pay anyone half a billion to do it . how is that a loss ? i agree sirius is the king of retail but like most stern fans the rest of your post is shady .

Need some XM stuff? Come to the DC area, they have plenty here.

The real numbers that count are subscribers.

Plenty here in NYC also. Sirius seems to be the only thing that's selling. Of course, the Northeast has always been Stern country...

Philmore, jkdillard1: Sirius had more sub-$60 receivers in stores than XM did. Both were promoting 3-months + a radio for $99. Sirius was also running a $100 rebate during the holidays. XM had a ton of Black Friday sales but Sirius had more on-going promotions.

XM on the otherhand was spending like crazy with prime-time commercials, while Sirius instead utilized their OEM relationships to get brand exposure and control costs as a result.

Regardless I don't think that was my the point. It's clear that Sirius is doing better in retail, and there's many contributing factors for this.

"The real numbers that count are subscribers."

Soooo.... What will you say sometime in the next year or two, when Sirius surpasses XM?

One of XM's problems might be that they're literally giving their product away for free by licensing O/A to testicle radio. Not that it's doing all that well, looking at the ratings, but how much cash could that be generating for XM? Not as much, I'll bet, as the money lost to fence sitters who might've subscribed had it not been free. Not to mention the hit in prestige and credibility ("No one's buying their product so they're giving it away").

XM's biggest problem seems to be management and brilliant decisions like that. I wonder if they're even aware of what's going on...

XM had nothing to do with O&A going to FM. O&A had the foresight to make sure it was in their contract to do so. They don't care if XM succeeds, nor should they. They need to grow the show, it's been off the air for 4 years. And looking at their ratings, it was a great move for them. Howie fans love to point out that they are failing but then only post ratings in markets where they admit to doing poorly. They shit on Chicago for not listening and readily admit they probably won't make it there as well as other markets. However, in most of their markets they do very well. Check out Howie's past ratings. I always believed his shit about being #1 and killing everyone. Fact is his ratings were marginal at best for the past 10 years and yes, he failed on many stations too.

i think the stern zombies are pointing out that o&a never impacted xm's appeal, pfreak. i wouldn't call them failures, they just don't do anything to appeal to the consumer and the proof is the lack of retail share and interest in xm. you said it right about how o&a are in it for o&a, not xm; because they aren't xm's poster product.

Dave, you said...

"Have you heard of the old retail cliche, "We'll make it up on volume"? That's exactly what Sirius did- slashed margins in order to capture share. That has always been a piss poor strategy."

Please do some research and show proof where Sirius "slashed margins" at retail. and before you post your findings, research all of the radios XM "Slashed margins" on during the 4th qtr.

here are my findings...

Sirius:
Stratus $59.99 (normal price)
Sportster Replay $79.99 ($49.99 black friday and xmas eve)
Starmate replay $59.99
Sirius S50 $179.99 (plus a $100 mail in rebate)
Starmate4 $119.99 (plus $20 rebate)
Sportster4 $149.99 (plus $30 rebate)
Stiletto 10 $249.99 (no rebate)
Stiletto 100 $349.99 (no rebate)

Sirius had no free activation and they did not give 1 month free.

XM
Sportcaster $59.99
Xpress $79.99 (plus $20 rebate)
RoadyXT $79.99 (plus $20 rebate)
Nexus25 $89.99 (plus $50 rebate)
Nexus50 $119.99 (plus $50 rebate)
Skyfi2 $99.99 (plus $30 rebate)
Helix $249.99 (plus $50 rebate)
Inno Black friday bundle with headphones, car kit, $30 service card $249.99 (plus $50 rebate)

plus xm gave away free activation and a free month.

i patiently await your response...

. Howie fans love to point out that they are failing but then only post ratings in markets where they admit to doing poorly

You mean like NYC

(12+) 1.6 - down from a 2.2 in the summer.

(persons 25-54) 2.4 - down from 3.1 in the summer.

(18-34) 3.1 - down from 4.1 in the summer.

(men 25-54) 3.9 - down from 5.0 in the summer.

RYAN -

"Sirius' market share improved to 66% in December, up from 59% in November. Although Sirius had more sub $60 radios available at stores, we believe that Sirius' share dominance also is an indication that the company continues to execute better than XM at retail."

I read that quote from Jonathan Jacoby too. Doesn't make it right! Especially since it came from Jacoby!

Sirius did not have a more lower cost units - with rebates Sirius had 2 (and the Sportster for a few days in November and a few in December).

XM had 4 sub $60 units. Plus they gave away a free month and free activation.

And yes, both companies had a buy a unit and get three months for a $100, but that was online sales onlys, AND XM still gave away a free month and activation on it. So how is that a comparison.

XM blew Sirius out of the water on cutting cost and giving things away, they just failed. They had plenty of inventory (this will start and argument but in the DC area they had more than enough to sell), they just couldn't make it happen.

Don't forget that the $100 rebate was on a terrible seller - the S50. Nothing else, the other two had a $30 rebate and a $20 rebate. XM had three units at $50 off, one at $30, and two at $20. So Sirius had three units with a rebate while XM had 6, plus the free month and free activation.

bloodycape -

"4Q of 05 xm gained about 900,000 subs ( their largest quarter ever ) and didn't pay anyone half a billion to do it . how is that a loss ? i agree sirius is the king of retail but like most stern fans the rest of your post is shady ."

First of all, I don't like Stern. Can't stand the show. Don't enjoy any of these shows. I bought Sirius for many other reasons than Stern. I tried XM for many other reasons than O&A. I just preferd Sirius. I am just asking and posting this stuff to counter what Ryan has posted. If we don't argue a point than he and everyone else are able to post opinions rather than fact - Like Jonathan Jacoby does everyday.
Second, Howard is paid for. He brought in more subs than anyone could have imagined (that is why he has been paid a stock bonus twice). He put Sirius on the map; made it a household name. Hooray for Howard. Don't forget that 4Q05 SAC went back up for them, they spent more money on a holiday than ever before, and they still missed their numbers. It was a loss for them, they lost the 4Q05 and have been second ever since.

I appreciate that Ryan is doing a fair job here at being unbiased. He says he is, and I trust him on that fact. I also appreciate that he gave credit where it was due on the post. However, when quoting someone like Jacoby in a post, quote him, especially him, so we can bash his quote when it is wrong, and not you.

We can't forget Philadelphia either. I believe they are in 18th. 1 of those stations is all news (and inaccurate traffic reports) so we can safely say they they are in 17th. The only other morning show that could possibly be competing with them is 3rd I believe and their whole show is recycled Bubba bits and Pat O'Brien (and Kasey Kasem) tapes. Hell they probably do O&A and Stern stuff to but the truth of the matter I use them as an alarm to wake-up it makes me want to get out of bed and turn them off. :)

You're a funny guy, you get out of bed to turn them off. Wow, that's comedy. Look at their demo ass, they are #1 in Philly in their demo. Spanish radio will always beat everything as there are few stations and many listeners. News kills all other talk shows, as does some music. Rush Fucking Limbaugh has more listeners than Howie or O&A combined. #1 in Boston in their demo. #1 in Buffalo in their demo. They really must have terrrible ratings to be on 25 FM stations and counting. And almost a full year in some markets. What happened to "they'll be gone in a month"? BTW, I don't know if you understand the ratings system but the NYC numbers are not at all bad.

PFreak I don't turn off O&A, I turn off the other station.

WLTW-FM Clear Channel AC 7.4 6.6 7.0 6.0 7.1
WSKQ-FM SBS Tropical 4.5 5.6 5.2 5.7 5.2
WPAT-FM SBS Spanish Contemporary 3.7 4.5 3.9 4.4 4.8
WHTZ-FM Clear Channel CHR/Pop 4.4 4.7 4.5 4.9 4.5
WBLS-FM Inner City Urban AC 3.5 3.7 4.2 4.0 4.0
WRKS-FM Emmis Urban AC 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.0
WINS-AM CBS Radio News 4.2 4.1 3.7 3.5 3.6
WQHT-FM Emmis CHR/Rhythmic 4.3 3.7 3.9 4.1 3.6
WWPR-FM Clear Channel Urban 4.1 3.9 4.1 3.6 3.5
WABC-AM ABC Radio Talk 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.3
WQCD-FM Emmis Smooth Jazz 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.2
WAXQ-FM Clear Channel Classic Rock 2.7 3.0 3.2 2.9 3.0
WKTU-FM Clear Channel CHR/Rhythmic 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
WFAN-AM CBS Radio Sports 2.7 2.2 2.7 2.7 2.6
WCBS-AM CBS Radio News 3.1 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.5
WQXR-FM New York Times Co. Classical 2.3 2.7 2.2 2.4 2.4
WCBS-FM CBS Radio Adult Hits 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.1
WPLJ-FM ABC Radio Hot AC 2.2 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.1
WOR-AM Buckley Broadcasting Talk 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.8
WCAA-FM/WZAA-FM Univision Latin Urban 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.1 1.7
WADO-AM Univision Spanish N/T 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.5
WNEW-FM CBS Radio Rhythmic AC 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.5
WFNY-FM CBS Radio Talk 3.2 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.2
WALK-FM Clear Channel AC 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1

OK, YOUR RIGHT, I GUESS I DONT UNDERSTAND, EXPLAIN HOW THIS IS NOT THAT BAD.