Sirius XM Radio Inc. at today's shareholder meeting highlighted its strong subscriber growth despite slowing auto sales. Indeed, the company went so far as to provide longterm guidance for total subscribers into 2013.
Above you can see a slide from the presentation shown to investors at today annual shareholder meeting. There's two things you can quickly derive from this slide: 1) The company isn't nearly as dependent on OEM subscribers as commonly thought (though the growth rate is pretty incredible); 2) Aftermarket growth has remained relatively flat since 2006.
This slide looks to combat any negativity surrounding the autosales freefall by showing how the increased penetration rate in the OEM channel is offsetting any sales declines. 
And here we continue to underscore how OEM penetration gains will drive net subscribers substantially - despite weak OEM sales overall.
So with all these factors combined, Sirius XM Radio Inc. felt comfortable enough to give us long range guidance through 2013.
By the end of 2013, the company estimates that it will gain nearly 10 million net subscribers, at a rate of about 2 million every year, bringing the total to 28.4 million net satellite radio subscribers.
By the end of 2013, the company estimates that it will gain nearly 10 million net subscribers, at a rate of about 2 million every year, bringing the total to 28.4 million net satellite radio subscribers.
Factor in the depression we are entering and you can turn the chart upside down to get a true reading, sounds like CEO spin to me.
This graph is incorrect:
If you delete "million" and change it to "single subscribers" and delete "billion" and change it to "cents" this chart might be closer to reality instead of Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin's lies ment to sucker more into the quickly sinking ship SiriusXM.
LOL... ROTFLMAO
800,000 for 2009
1,500,000 for 2010
1,900,000 for 2011
2,200,000 for 2012
2,200,000 for 2013
Honestly.. this is funny...
if 2009 is as poor as they predict. 2010 should prove to have less overall churn giving a bump up in the numbers and by then they are so far out that its no longer anything that can the thought of as anything close to reality.
EVEN BEFORE the auto martket took a dump both XM and sirius had slowing growth and rising churn (overall) .. I do not know what ol Mel is smokin but I want some.
When it comes to growth - think IPOD. In this day and age: if it ain't exponential, it ain't consequential.
Wall street isnt buying this load of horseshit either. The stock went up .01 today!
Like Bill O'Reilly might rail against...the spin is in!!
it's amazing that 30 million people will be listening to howard two years after he retires.oh my bad,sixty million, because every sub equals two listeners.gotta love howie math
The retail stockholders really got screwed thanks sirius for nothing you really suck
Hmmmm....looks like they went with Sirius's accounting for ghost subs. 45% penetration in OEM sales for 2008 on one chart and it looks like they were all counted as subs.
What is stupid here is they are trying to hype a dying company.
The put the company so far into debt that even in good times there is no hope of recovery, and now the looming depression with many large companys failing and hundreds of thousands unemployed, stick a fork in it, it's done!
Having 20 Million subscribers and growing is very positive to build upon. Satellite Radio is one industry that is growing!!!
Are they taking into account the number of people who are going to cancel if Bubba doesn't get resigned. And how about the number of people who will cancel if Howard doesn't stay after 2010. I am sure that will have a big impact on those projections.
What pisses me off..is where is the article about the reverse stock split 50 to 1. What the F#()@! Talk about the company drowning all the stock investors money. I know people who invested over 20K, there 20K investment is soon to be $560 dollars. Way to go Sirius XM for screwing people out of the money for 4 more years.
>> What pisses me off..is where is the article about the reverse stock split 50 to 1. What the F#()@! Talk about the company drowning all the stock investors money.
The reverse split isn't drowning anyone; it has nothing to do with anything (splits are without consequence, period).
What drowned the investors is massive dilution on SIRI's part which occurred over a period of years and wild, wasteful spending on bad business deals like Howard Stern.
Finally, there was an ill-conceived merger in which everyone lost because it was obviously a stupid deal from the outset.
Forget the split. It doesn't change a thing.
It does change something, it gives you the ability to short it, something I will do soon after the split takes place.
Look, all the cards are stacked against sat rad. To wit:
1) Retail is dead for sat rad
2) The OEMs are not selling new cars.
3) Times are hard so people are churn is going up
4) They are diluting
5) They have hugely expensive contracts that are not paying for themselves and cannot get out of them.
A bankruptcy reorganization would be a blessed event for them, they can get rid of the existing shareholder base, they can renegotiate or cancel their existing contracts, and they can come out with new financing and start over. Its a good medium, they just need new management and to get back to basics, music, news, some sports, and some entertainment, all for a low monthly price.
So take advantage and go make some money.
Sounds like you don't invest in Sirius XM. That's why you are so relaxed about it, it does mean something. Why ask for it, if it doesn't matter? Because they want to have an option to dilute stock for sh!ts and giggles? Siriusly, you're insane and the fact that you try to understand sirius XM's position is quite entertaining. Do me a favor and just buy some stock since you are so understanding and don't mind giving your money away.
I had 50% in XM and 50% in SIRI. Thought I was playing it smart in case one went belly up. Now I'm out thousands. I never in a 100 years would of believed I would own penny stock. Shame on you MEL. I voted against the split and the dilution. Looks like I was in the 25% minority.
I should cancel my sub but can't cause it's life time. Lost there too. Mel just keeps on coming up with ways to take things away from me.
This company is the 2nd largest subscription based service in the united states. Hold on to your stocks, hold on to your subscriptions and give this company time. These people know what they are doing. They are sitting on technology that is going to revolutionize the wireless broadband industry, and dont forget about the endless possibilities with the satrad, gps, and did I mention the european need for sat. services. Chill out and give them time. Mel did not get where he is by laying down, he clearly wants to be #1. And I think his track record has proven that.
Mike B, Mel's successful track record is in terrestrial radio. He's a powerhouse when it comes to ad sales, but in satellite radio he has not exactly been a miracle worker. Granted, the current bad economy is not helping, but they were in a world of hurt before that. Now, post-channel merger, they have one product to sell rather than two, which is dumb. When companies merge, they rarely homogenize all products into the same thing, as it reduces overall appeal by eliminating the ability to aim different products at different potential customers.
As far as growth predictions, all companies do that kind of stuff; basically it amounts to an optimistic extrapolation of present trends. But within that rosy overall forecast it's ominous (and telling) that aftermarket growth is unimpressive, as this indicates that people who actually choose to purchase the service (rather than get it "free" with a car) are not buying radios and subscribing. This may show that the pool of interested customers is starting to get tapped out. While they will still get the OEM listeners, and car sales will eventually improve, a lack of overall appeal would cause fewer of these people to convert to paid subs when their free service ends.
As I see it, the channel merger showed a neglect of the only thing that really matters -- product -- and ultimately that will hurt their growth prospects.