Its safe to say that lack of inventory and new receivers have put a damper on things--Ramp up to start nov. 1

I just don't get it. Is it easier (and cheaper) to use a sat. radio than it would be to use an mp3 player. Another thought it where are people getting all this free time to keep updating their songs?

1 thing that retailers need to do is cross market the sat. radio next to the mp3 players. Best Buy has started doing this with the S50, Stilleto, Inno, Helix, etc. but CC has not. At least not in my area. BB and CC have their own section next to the mobile stereo shops. Both retailers mobile shops are hidden in the back where as the mp3 players are right out front.

You can't expect a business to continue to grow without marketing.

Until now, XM has never marketed its product at all -- no consistent, coordinated campaign, no marketing plan. It now appears we're seeing the beginning of a true marketing campaign from XM.

Sirius' only marketing has been to acquire Stern and before him, it was the NFL. And try to always look like the industry leader when they aren't. This isn't marketing.

So, it is no surprise to see satellite radio demand let up prematurely. The Ipod hasn't helped.

I blame O&A and George Bush.

All these excuses being dreamed up. Jacoby sites lack of units during recall, low OEM ramp, Stern impact. It's all bullshit.

Satrad is not wanted by the masses. if it were, it would be on a continual growth pattern.

it has maxed IN ALL SECTORS. If the companies don't merge, one of them ( My bet is on XM ) will be tits up in

The experts were correct five years ago, get over it, satrad is not big enough for two players.

Now stop with the excuses. Stern didn't kick in until Q4 2005 and we all know it.

Anotherthought: I worked at a CC until a few weeks ago and the SatRad/Mp3 players are actually featured more perdominately than anything else in the mp3 aisle. There is a huge display with an Inno, Helix, Nexus and S50 in it that you can listen to with info on XM and Sirius. It's been in the store I worked at since the Inno came out. Not sure which CC you are shopping at, but I have seen this nice display in most of the CC mp3 sections.

Is it easier (and cheaper) to use a sat. radio than it would be to use an mp3 player.

Easier? Definitely. Ipods are all about ease of use.

Cheaper? Well... iPods are a one-time cost (not counting purchased music, etc...). Satellite has monthly reoccurring charges and the high-end models cost as much as an Ipod. So even if it's not more expensive, it's perceived as being so because the cost never stops. Doesn't help, in my opinion, that both companies offer too many ill-defined models, which confuses consumers. They need to take a page from Apple and offer one Low, Middle and High End receiver.

And portable, live, on-the-go reception should be a standard feature in ALL receivers and not just confined to the high end, dammit!

it only makes sense that retail would slow.. think about it.. where do you use Sat Rad? in the car while driving. as people purchace new cars with sat rad factory installed there is less need for a sat rad receiver purchaced at retail. Pile this on top of fuel costs and many americans simply not having the cash cushion as before the monthly fee will scare some people off to. but for the most part I think Retail has peaked and will be replaced by Factory installed receivers.

where is my 40 gig hard drive for my s50?? upload over 8,000 songs mr. ipod? so can i....NOT

For the $13/month you pay XM or Sirius you can buy one CD a month for your Ipod.

XM *HAS* basically made portable, live on the go reception pretty standard at this point -- the new SkyFi3 is a great example -- it will be under $200; even the Sportscaster with a portable kit is $135.

Sirius will eventually get there in a few years.

>>Its safe to say that lack of inventory and new receivers have put a damper on things >>

Ehh, I'm not buying this idea so much - I really think it's more of a marketing issue. It's a problem whereby if I didn't already subscribe to XM, I wouldn't really be too sure about a) what sort of programming they carry (apart from baseball) or b) what sort of hardware's out there.

I only knew about the Inno and its features from sites such as this and the message boards like XM411.

People have to be convinced that satellite radio is a good buy. Anyone here *knows* this already, but the problem lies in the initial investment - the hardware, the subscription, kits, accessories, etc.

There's got to be a better and cheaper way to expose this stuff to the masses.

You can blame Stern for Sirius' downturn - but using that logic, XM should be way up - not down 15% - is the 8M # in trouble. It is amazing how fast this market has crashed - w/o OEM - this is purely an early adopter item.

i would hardly say the market has crashed. the facts:
end of 03 XM 1.4 mill
SIRI .26
end of 04 XM 3.1
SIRI 1.0
end of 05 XM 6.0
SIRI 3.3
projected 06 XM 7.7 to 8.2
SIRI 6.3

Hardly a crash. its still steady increase of subs. if xm gains 2 million this year, its a failure?

I say $12.99 a month or $10.99 if you sign-up for 3 months and $9.99 a month if you go six or more.
With gas prices (Thank Gooodness they are dropping) Heating costs ect... People are watching what they spend and at $9.99 a month (6 months) that would ease peoples minds a little.
So I Say a new pay structure could help!!

Fcc issues for past couple months and retail is down? Satrad is by no means done! Watch:
http://www.mercradio.com/free.htm

HD is dead in the water!

Yes - 2M net adds is a failure when churn is upwards of 2% and you are spending cash at an unsustainable rate. The point that is missed on all Net Add discussions is the huge number of Gross Adds that are needed to get that Net Add #. At the current rate, XM will need 2M GSAs in 2006 just to maintain their total number of Subs. So maybe the market is not crashing - it is imploding, from the inside as churn continues to eat at margins and drive up expenses.

so your using the monster amount of money spent and spinning that as a failure in the industry? What if xm holds steady and sees 15 million subs by 2010? Using the 2% churn you stated, would that not mean that of the 2million new subs, 40,000 cut off service? isn't that impressive for the industry for it to be that low? if i'm mistaken on my math forgive me. even if churn applies to the whole 7.1 million, 2% is 142,000. thats still 1.86 million.

i know they are spending a lot, but i still don't see how it is imploding.

The person who wrote about the imploding churn is the winner.

XM signed up about 800K new subs. 500K exisitng subs left. 300 Net.

Yeah, that's a growth industry.

Merge before it's worthless Mel.

I really have to agree with FlaFlaFluGuy when he says, "For the $13/month you pay XM or Sirius you can buy one CD a month for your Ipod."

You have to agree that up until last week XM's marketing sucked ass. I mean seriously, the people on this message board working for free could have come with a better marketing campaign for XM. In saying that, satradio as an industry I believe is going to make sense to become some where invovled. Either they know some body that already has it, Apple comes out with a satradio Ipod, what ever. One thing that i have questioned myself about in regard to either XM or Sirius marketing in on billboards. Its one thing to see Xm advertise at baseball stadiums, its another to see this huge ass billboard stating the question. I think that if you can make people realize that satradio is affordable, that you can store the songs and re-play and that live sat radio is easy to use for any body, like an Ipod.

"What are you looking at? XM as 170 unique channels, from the 70's on 7 to XM65 the Rhyme, and 22 channel of traffic in whatever city your sitting in. Find Yourself, XM."

People listen to the radio in their cars, theres a shocker! People read billboards from their cars? Any connection?

"

Is it easier (and cheaper) to use a sat. radio than it would be to use an mp3 player.

Easier? Definitely. Ipods are all about ease of use.

Cheaper? Well... iPods are a one-time cost (not counting purchased music, etc...). Satellite has monthly reoccurring charges and the high-end models cost as much as an Ipod. So even if it's not more expensive, it's perceived as being so because the cost never stops. Doesn't help, in my opinion, that both companies offer too many ill-defined models, which confuses consumers. They need to take a page from Apple and offer one Low, Middle and High End receiver.

And portable, live, on-the-go reception should be a standard feature in ALL receivers and not just confined to the high end, dammit!"

--------------

Good post MikeHunt.

A reason why iPods are so hot with the younger crowd is they are getting their music for free. They swap playlists and download songs from Limewire. Once the door closes on the free music and customers are forced to pay $1-$2 a song, you can bet the SDARS industry will explode. $13 a month for tons of music, or $13 for 13 songs? hmm...I'll take option #1 please!

pockpie wrote:

"The person who wrote about the imploding churn is the winner.

XM signed up about 800K new subs. 500K exisitng subs left. 300 Net.

Yeah, that's a growth industry.

Merge before it's worthless Mel."

----------

Plowboy, is that you?

When the net adds are lower than the # of subs churning, then we can start to worry.

The industry is growing, but not exploding anymore thanks to more competition and the auto manufacturers taking their sweet ass time making SDARS standard equipment. They should have done this 2 years ago.

Now they're accomodating iPods instead.

When the net adds are lower than the # of subs churning, then we can start to worry.

The industry is growing, but not exploding anymore thanks to more competition and the auto manufacturers taking their sweet ass time making SDARS standard equipment. They should have done this 2 years ago.

Now they're accomodating iPods instead.

-----

OEM's are only slow to add Satrad because no one outside of us WANTS it. It took OEM's about 2 years to go 75% loaded with MP3 jacks. Do you think GM would pass the chance to make .15 per car. Hardly as they are $$$ whores.

When the net adds are lower than the sub churns is not the time to start worrying. That will be the time to cash your pink-sheet stock in for .03 per share.

Just to clarify the 2% churn is PER MONTH - meaning almost 25% of your total base - say 2M of your 8M Subs are going to drop you during the year. There is also a hidden churn that people forget about - conversion rate - which 2 years ago was 60+% is now headed to 50 for a myriad of reasons, but XM has to pay for each of those subs as and the conversion goes down, the SAC for each of those converting subs goes up.

Overall, looking at a SAC of $60 - if you need to bring on 2M Subs just to stay flat on total subs - that is $120M just to stay flat - that business plan does not work.

The fact of the matter is this - until churn is under control and the mass market decides it needs SatRad like it needs an iPod, the industry is in big trouble.

8M- i see your point now, and its a good one. i didn't know churn attributed on a monthly basis. i thought at the worst it was quarterly.