If there's one thing that we can all admit, it's that satellite radio investors are a "passionate" group. So what better way to drive interest (and traffic) from this group than by spewing a list of negative theories that, uhm, "could" happen?
Enter a blog post by Douglas McIntyre on 24/7 Wall St., and subsequently parroted by the great Henry Blodget of Clusterstock.
Now if there's anything that Blodget knows about, it's hot air.
In McIntyre's post, he pontificates of four possible scenarios that could make SIRI "trade under $1 by the end of the year," a statement that Blodget decided to use as his headline. Here's the synopsis:
1. The synergies could be less than expected. Oh, and the merging of the two companies could take longer.The comments to Blodget's post (24/7 Wall Street doesn't allow for comments, I wonder why?) are particularly hilarious, especially since Blodget had to answer, again, to his dotcom specter. This comment is my personal favorite because it addresses each of the "possible" scenarios.
2. Sirius could find that the refinancing of $2.5 billion in long term debt is "nearly impossible in a poor credit market."
3. Satellite Radio growth rates could suffer because of the slowing automotive market. Oh, and then there's the iPod!
4. "Sirius could loss [sic] key management." Because, y'know, Mel will be 65 soon, and now that the merger is over he'll want to retire.
But why stop at just four? C'mon Blodget could have come up with some better speculative scenarios all in the name of "research and analysis." You're good at that.
Let me help out. Here's five more things that could happen to a now newly merged Sirius XM Radio Inc. that would drive SIRI down the toilet:
5. NAB president David K. Rehr could sneak into Mel's office, sit in Mel's chair, take all his phone calls pretending to be Mel, and issue poor decisions (like he did the past 18 months) that would spell the demise of the company.Give me a break.
6. Military rockets could shoot down one of Sirius' satellites at the perfect moment, and ricochet hurling pieces of space junk to take out all of XM's satellites at the same time. No seriously, it could happen!
7. Rats could eat all the fiber in The Eck, causing a malfunction that would domino nationwide, ultimately making all of XM's repeaters towers to start over-transmitting and making the FCC really really angry.
8. Howard Stern could quit Sirius and go podcast willy instead. (Hmm, actually, that's not very funny.)
9. The iPod is coming! The iPod is coming! Oh wait, the iPod has been here since 2001 and is maturing. Bah, who cares! the iPod is coming! The iPod is coming!
Just a note to Blodget, McIntyre and other fear-mongers:
If you're going to try to be dramatic about predicting the demise of satellite radio, try basing your "research and analysis" on concrete reasons - there's actually plenty available to work with.
[24/7 Wall St, Clusterstock]
I saw that trash yesterday, I KNOW SAT radio is highly speculative, but, oh my his assumptions are ludicrous and just basic fear mongering...
I'm sure Bloggit was paid a nice sum of money by Rehr-end to write that bashing article. Bloggit should be behind bars serving 20 years for the losses he caused shareholders from the dotcom era. He is basically a piece of shit.
I defy anyone to find ONE POSITIVE ARTICLE ever Written by Douglas Mcintrye
on Satellite Radio. Mcintrye is/or was a DIRECTOR for thestreet.com
Cramer's old company. He like Cramer is a GRAD of Harvard (buddies?????)
You forgot
10) Ryan at Orbitcast might spin a story to satradio's favor. Ryan unless your being paid by Sirius/XM why not let Sirius/XM earn their mention instead of spinning things?
What everyone who lacks understanding is missing is, there is very little, if anything positive going on in the satradio industry. The "merge" happened yet in 500 days of waiting Sirius/XM have little planned in terms of a path forward, little planned in ways to draw positive attention to the product and start subsribers and retail back up. The approval of the "merge" should have been like the green flag dropping and all the planning from those 500 days was shot into motion. Instead we've seen ZERO synergies, we've seen the stock drop even lower, and we've gotten mothing but lip service from Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin. All from a "merge" of two companies who have neither made a dime in 8 years and are now a MONOPOLY.
Yeah? So What!!! Any one of us could get hit by a car while crossing the street. I, for one, will look both ways before crossing.
Oh,and by the way, Starbucks could go out of business because every coffee plant in the world could shrivel up and die, and Starbucks would then be unable to buy coffee.
Satellite Radio = NO COMMERCIALS. Lest we forget, we are growing up in the "DVR Age" - where people bypass commercials on a regular basis. With that ruling in NY yesterday, DVR will seep out further into the market, making us even less interested in listening to commercials.
Our subscriber base is going to grow exponentially as teens & recent college grads enter the marketplace/workforce. It's the hidden truth behind all this, and Anonymous Coward & all the SatRad dissenters are scared to death over it.
@Anon I love that people like yourself actually think I'm being paid by Sirius XM. HAH! One could only wish.
For the record, I do not and never have accepted any financial incentive from either company. I do not hold any shares in SIRI, nor do I hold any shares in any related company.
I'm free to trash Sirius XM as I wish, and trust me, I've published things they would rather I didn't.
But then... you must be wondering why I consistently defend the companies, defend medium, and am generally supportive of Sirius/XM? Maybe, just maybe, that's because this site is about satellite radio and maybe, just maybe, I'm a big fan of it. I know, it's a crazy thought. But the whole "All Things Satellite Radio" might just give that away.
Frank,
WRONG, or you must not have a satradio? Hate to break it to you but Satellite Radio = COMMERCIALS, currently not as many as AM/FM but satradio does have commercials. Not "scared" at all, just am educated.
"Our subscriber base"??? "Our"??? Frank are you so disillusioned you think your part of Sirius/XM? Perhaps you like to think of yourself as one of Melvin Alan "Mel" Karmazin's bitches? Teens and recent college grads are not going to give sirius/xm the time of day, they already all know the strength of internet radio and iPod's to be stupid enough to downgrade and get involved the tail end of the satradio industry.
Ryan-
This world if full of people who think that people are scheming against them, or otherwise have alterior motives. You really don't have to defend yourself against anyone like that - especially in an anonymous forum like the internet.
Thanks for all you do. I, and I am certain most other people, appreciate your efforts. They have not gone unnoticed.
Ryan, with respect it's one thing to be a fan and a subscriber to satradio. It's another thing to spin stories and go against your own words.
"Orbitcast is dedicated to providing the latest news, information and an increased awareness of XM, Sirius and their competing industries."
24/7 Wall St., and Clusterstock could very well be right in telling things as they are.
Do they realize the merger have been already completed
1. The synergies could be less than expected. Oh, and the merging of the two companies could take longer.
Do they realize the refinancing have already been done
2. Sirius could find that the refinancing of $2.5 billion in long term debt is "nearly impossible in a poor credit market."
Used cars, Next
3. Satellite Radio growth rates could suffer because of the slowing automotive market. Oh, and then there's the iPod!
I doubt' Mel will retire with the companies next!
4. "Sirius could loss [sic] key management." Because, y'know, Mel will be 65 soon, and now that the merger is over he'll want to retire.
INVESTORS BETTER GET SOME REASONS TO HOLD THIS STOCK AFTER LOSING SOO MUCH.....WE DONT GIVE A FUCK ABOUT ANYLYSTS LIKE CRAMER WHO DID WORSE......IN 17 MONTHS MEL KARMAZIN HASNT CREATED ONE COLLABORATION.....NET FLICKS......A CELL PHONE COMPANY.......ANYTHING????? AND WHAT ABOUT INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS THAT OWN SOO MUCH OF THIS STOCK ARE DOING NOTHING BUT ALLOWING PREDITORY NAKED SHORTS TO SLOWLY EAT THIS STOCK TO DEATH.....THESE INSTITUTIONS SET THE STANDARD FOR DEPREVITY......I SPOKE WITH THE NICEST GUY YESTERDAY AND HIS MARRIAGE IS OVER BECAUSE OF THIS INSANITY......!
Forgot another reason it could be under a $1:
10. Mel and Howard say "Fuck You" to Opie & Anthony, who are subsequently let go from their XM contract, and not renewed on FM. The pests smash all their XM units in a display of hostility towards the shitty treatment of XM, and cut off units in droves. The call centers get massively overloaded and one of the satellites even goes down.
Hey, it could happen? HAHAH 0.0 FAGGOTS
HI! PATRICK RODGERS AGAIN! I TALK IN CAPS LIKE THIS TO MAKE ME MADD! YOU KNOW WHAT MADD IS RIGHT???..I HAVE NO IDEA WHAT IM EVEN TALKING ABOUT, ALL I DO IS SMOKE POLE, DRINK COSMOPOLITANS, AND BLOW MONEY ON STOCKS! DONT BE A DUMBASS LIKE ME AND PUT STOCK ON HD RADIO, I THOUGHT THEY WERE FLYING ON SHELVES! I HAVE NO MONEY DONT LISTEN TO ME IM A DUMBASS I WILL MAKE YOU LOSE MONEY! IM A TOOL ALL I DO IS YELL AND MAKE NO SENSE! WILL PEOPLE REALIZE I HAVE NO IDEA WHAT IM TALKING ABOUT! INVESTORS SHOULDNT LISTEN TO ME...IN 17 MONTHS I WILL BE LIVING ON THE STREET SUCKIN THE CUM OFF POLES FOR CASH! I SPOKE WITH THE NICEST GUY TODAY...AND YOU KNOW WHAT I DID....I PLAYED WITH HIS BALLS TILL HE RETURNED THE FAVOR!!!!!!
OK... Refinancing will be no problem.. they will be above CFBE and thats all the big brokerage houses will need to refinance and and skim off all the profits from SiriusXM.
IMO... unless the "Synergies" are substantial. (And I think they are not) the debt payments and satellite launches will continue to hang like an albatross necklace on this company for 10 plus years when the cycle of replacing satellites will begin again.
Come on, folks
When do we get to see the benefit of the merger? That's all I want to know.
are Sirius and XM trying to merge?
Ya know I saw the title to the link and never even bothered to click on it. I'm also avoiding those click whores at Motley and the street.com. The guy from cluster must be a complete jerkoff!
I think clusterstock is a word play on clusterf*ck.
What do you think?
Call in now!
whoever believes Blodget is a fool - this is a man who was accused by the SEC - and I quote - of the following (and I believe - not sure -agreed to leave the industry of advising):
"During the relevant period, Blodget issued research reports on one Internet company, GoTo.com, that violated antifraud provisions of the federal securities laws, and issued research reports on six other Internet companies that expressed views inconsistent with privately expressed negative views as discussed below. These reports violated NASD and NYSE rules that require, among other things, that published research reports have a reasonable basis, present a fair picture of the investment risks and benefits, and not make exaggerated or unwarranted claims. "
Is Henry Blodget the same asshole who said that GOOG would reach $2000 a share?
http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/
And the number #1 reason that SIRIXM could trade below $1 before the end of the year.
Dunt-ta-na-na-na... Drum Roll Please.........
SIRIUSXM RECEIVES DELISTING NOTICE FROM NASDAQ AND GOES ONTO THE PINK SHEETS!!
And so it goes,
PCSTEL
Is that champagne corks popping in the background? Can it be true? Oh dear . . . the stock price actually close up by less than 5 cents. Is this the declaration by Cramer that the bottom is here? Has Sirius XM made a penny of profit? Oh dear, Oh dear, I must have been wrong about this great company. My gosh, golly gee, it makes me want to sing, "We're in the money, we're in the money . . . "
Oh golly gee.
Well, so far since 2006 McIntyre has been more accurate than the Mel and Gary show.
Can you believe that a guy who flew XMSR into the ground is promoted by the nex SIXM?
I can't. Gary is a self serving dope.
www.baltimoresun.com/business/bal-bz.ml.spending03aug03,0,5439638.story
baltimoresun.com
Doing without satellite radio
By Gregory Karp
August 3, 2008
Common targets for family spending cuts include work lunches out, premium cable TV channels and the perennial whipping boy of financial advice, a daily latte.
But what if you subscribe to satellite radio? Does paying for radio present a good value proposition for you?
Satellite radio, most often found in automobiles using special receivers and antennas, is similar to subscription satellite TV. Though new packages and pricing are supposed to be available in the fall, customers have commonly paid about $13 a month to receive service. Service on additional receivers, such as in another car, costs extra. It's typical to spend about $240 a year for service on two devices, not counting hardware costs and activation fees.
Spokesman Chance Patterson noted the XM service alone added 1 million subscribers in the second quarter and a record number of new-car customers for the fifth consecutive quarter. He pointed to the service's relatively low price and abundant content as "unmatched entertainment value available nationwide for a modest cost."
It's hard to deny satellite radio is a desirable service, but is it worth the money? (NO!)
Here are less expensive listening options:
•Use an MP3 player for music.
If you have an iPod or other portable music player, you can play recorded audio files through your home and car audio systems. You might need accessories, such as a direct wire connection, a cassette adapter or an FM transmitter, which plays the audio through a station on the FM radio.
•Use an MP3 player for talk shows.
Besides music, you can play podcasts on an MP3 player. Podcasts are digital recordings of radio broadcasts or similar audio programs. Most music-library software, such as Apple Inc.'s iTunes for iPods, allows you to subscribe to podcasts for free and easily load them onto your device.
•Use an MP3 player for news.
It won't be up-to-the-minute news, but you can download free podcasts of news from a variety of sources.
•Go online.
For music, check out music from Radio.AOL.com, Pandora.com, Live365.com and your favorite radio station Web sites.
•Go HD.
High-definition radio allows AM and FM stations to transmit digital signals. You'll have to buy a digital-enabled radio for about $100.
yourmoney@tribune.com
Gregory Karp writes for The Morning Call in Allentown, Pa.
Copyright © 2008, The Baltimore Sun
http://www.emercedesbenz.com/Aug08/05_001320_Mercedes_Benz_To_Offer_Factory_Installed_HD_Radio_On_Select_2009_Model_Year_Vehicles.html
Another automaker churns to HD Radio
Mercedes-Benz To Offer Factory Installed HD Radio On Select 2009 Model Year Vehicles
Posted August 5, 2008 At 8:55 AM CST by T. Philips
For those of you wishing to expand your in-car channel surfing horizons well beyond the relatively limited scope of channels available to you via analog radio, Mercedes-Benz USA has announced that they will be offering HD Radio technology on several model year 2009 vehicles. The free digital AM/FM radio service is part of Mercedes' completely new generation of entertainment systems developed for the M-, R-, GL- and G-Class SUV's as well as the E-Class model lineup.
According to Rasheq Zarif, Assistant Product Manager - Technology Planning at Mercedes-Benz USA: "HD Radio technology serves to enhance our digital information and entertainment system today and has the potential to significantly expand the options available to consumers in the future. Mercedes-Benz is committed to providing our customers with the latest, next-generation in-vehicle entertainment technology."
Currently broadcasting to more than 83 percent of Americans, the subscription-free HD Radio service already features over 1,700 HD Radio stations, with an additional 800 new multicast channels available exclusively to HD Radio listeners. In addition to highlighting unique and/or new music genres through their own dedicated channels, such as jazz, "tween," local bands and Bluegrass, the most notable benefit of HD Radio over analog is, of course, the fact that content is delivered digitally - the result of which is an improvement in audio quality comparable to that of a CD.
If you're interested, as already noted, HD Radio will be offered on all 2009 Mercedes SUV's as well as the E-Class. To learn more about HD Radio as well as its implementation on the 2009 Mercedes model lineups, keep reading for the official press release.
Enjoy.
OFFICIAL PRESS RELEASE
Mercedes-Benz To Offer Factory Installed HD Radio™ Technology On Select Model Year 2009 Vehicles
Montvale, NJ – Mercedes-Benz announced today that it will offer HD Radio technology on several of its MY 2009 vehicles. The free digital AM/FM radio service is part of Mercedes-Benz’s completely new generation of entertainment systems developed for its M-, R-, GL-, G-Class SUVs and E-Class vehicles.
“HD Radio technology serves to enhance our digital information and entertainment system today and has the potential to significantly expand the options available to consumers in the future,” said Rasheq Zarif, Assistant Product Manager - Technology Planning at Mercedes-Benz USA. “Mercedes-Benz is committed to providing our customers with the latest, next-generation in-vehicle entertainment technology.”
HD Radio technology is the most significant advance in radio broadcasting since the advent of FM. Available to more than 83 percent of Americans, more than 1,700 HD Radio stations are already on the air with over 800 additional new multicast channels (HD2/HD3) that are exclusive to HD Radio listeners. These subscription-free channels feature digitally delivered new music and fresh formats, showcasing jazz, “Tween,” local bands, world music, Motorsports, Bluegrass niche content and much more.
All MY 2009 Mercedes-Benz SUV's and E-Class models featuring a new head unit incorporating a large 6.5-inch color display screen with a standard in-dash, six-disc CD/DVD changer and a Bluetooth interface that allows a phone (even in a pocket or purse) to be operated through the car’s audio system. The new head unit can be equipped with an optional iPod/MP3 media interface, Sirius satellite radio, HD Radio technology, and an advanced voice control system for audio, navigation and phone systems. The sound system can play tracks stored on a data CD, DVD or memory card. The new system can also display maps and directions for the optional GPS navigation system, which can display Sirius real-time traffic information and Zagat restaurant ratings.
For a complete, current list of HD Radio stations across the U.S., please visit http://www.hdradio.com. “HD Radio™” is a proprietary trademark of iBiquity Digital Corporation.
Copyright © 2008, Mercedes-Benz USA
RADIO GA-GA: Are you one of the 9.7 million XM customers or 8.3 million Sirius radio advocates now wondering what the merged operation called Sirius-XM will mean for you? Here's what a careful read of the Federal Communications Commission's approval agreement reveals.
Q: Will I be able to get Howard Stern's shenanigans on my XM radio, or Oprah Winfrey's channel on Sirius?
A: "Looks promising," the Magic 8 ball says, though it'll cost you extra. The FCC's agreement states that the combined company must offer current subscribers a "best of" package that provides both Sirius and XM programming, "as selected by the merged company," for $16.99 a month.
Q: If I stick with what I have, are they going to jack up my $12.99 monthly bill?
A: The combined company has agreed to continue existing packages and put a "cap" on prices for 36 months. However, there's a loophole.
After a year, the merged company will be able to petition for "certain cost-pass throughs" that could be caused by anything from a satellite failure (those babies are expensive) to ESPN raising the per-subscriber fee, as it's done often _ and painfully _ to the cable and satellite TV industries.
Q: But I don't even want ESPN! How's that going to play out?
A: FCC Chairman Kevin Martin has been beating the drum loudly for user-choice, "a la carte" programming from pay TV and radio. He's gotten no help from the former (and played nasty with Comcast for its noncompliance).
But the sat-radio guys have agreed to offer a number of new programming packages _ including the ability to choose just the channels you want. Pre-packaged channel groupings that limit your choice to "mostly music" or "news, sports and talk programming" will be available for $9.99 each.
Q: If I really want to cherry-pick _ say, all the hip-hop, Latin or jazz channels from the Sirius and XM lineups _ how's that going to work?
A: You'll need a new-generation, "a la carte-capable radio" that can tune in signals from both sets of satellites.
In a last-minute concession to win FCC approval, the combined company agreed to make such "interoperable" models available just nine months after the merger.
At introduction, this complicated product will likely be expensive. But the FCC is demanding that Sirius-XM share its radio designs with nonaligned equipment makers, so competitive products at lower prices may soon follow.
Q: The National Association of Broadcasters, representing over-the-air FM and AM stations, has done everything it could to prevent this merger. Have they been thrown a bone?
A: A couple, actually. Terrestrial broadcasters had been demanding that all new satellite radios from a merged company should also tune in their free, over-the-air HD Radio digital channels. The FCC is still considering that request.
The agreement says only that Sirius-XM can't prevent manufacturers from building a radio that also tunes HD Radio and accommodates music devices such as iPods.
Also watching the NAB's back, the merger agreement stipulates that Sirius-XM cannot make a deal with a national sports league that would block out local radio broadcasts of the same games.
And the satellite channels will still be forbidden to use city-specific technology (like their ground-based signal repeater system) to deliver customized content in different markets, beyond the local traffic/weather update services currently available.
Q: Will anything new be coming to satellite radio?
A: The combined service is required to open up several channels for non-commercial educational use.
All of you may want to check your shorts - I think that the NAB took a massive dump:
Historical Performance: SIRI
Return as of August 05 2008
1 Month -26.04%
6 Month -54.92%
YTD -53.29%
1 Year -51.03%
3 Year -78.99%
5 Year -27.18
http://finance.aol.com/quotes/sirius-satellite-radio-inc/siri/nas/historical-prices
$1 plus change - sounds like many of the major terrestrial radio stocks - right, AC? LOL!
I find it realy funny how many bitter NAB people there are here...
Guys, you lost this battle; get over it and move on...
DudeManCentral,
NAB? Where? Is this like the boogie man? Lost? what battle? Consumers lost when the "merge" was approved, consumers had choice of 2 satradio companies which were directly competing for subscribers. Now there is no choice and no direct competition. The consumer "lost", satradio subscribers "lost", the satradio industry "lost" (and continues to lose) No need to continue to prove ignorance or post FUD trying to fool others, the truth and reality is already known by the educated.
You are only proving my point more..
Thanks, I owe yoou one.
Nice comeback DudeManCentral,
NOT
Keep on believing and proving your blind ignorance.
I do actually have Sirius, but thanks for name calling. And no, I don't listen to commercials because I have this little button called "Memo" that alerts me whenever my favorite artist is on...which is, pretty much every minute of the day. I have never even heard a commercial on Sirius because of this fact.
I'm willing to bet that if you signed up for Sirius/XM, that you would love it. You should stop being such a party pooper and join the club, it's worth every penny!
Frank,
"You should stop" lying and admit you were wrong when you make the claim there are no commercials on Sirius/XM. Now you make another BOGUS claim of your "favorite artist is on...which is, pretty much every minute of the day." Your radio has how many memo slots? 30? like the rest of us? WRONG AGAIN.
Why post your delusions of grandeur which any educated person can tell are nothing but blind, ignorant lies?
I'm not lying - and I'm not name-calling with you anymore. How about an open and honest discussion on the topic instead. Fair?
I paid for a lifetime subscription to Sirius - it cost me $399. The Sportster was free in the deal. At the time, it was the price of an iPod. My feeling on the matter was that I have a 45-minute commute to work every day. I don't have either the time or the patience to continually pay for new music, download to iTunes, push it over to my iPod. And I really dislike listening to commercials - they really annoy me.
So I bought Sirius - mainly because I heard that a) XM has more commercials, and b) I like listening to Howard Stern. As a subscriber, what I've found is that Sirius is actually much better than advertised. I have 30 artists preset into my receiver, and whenever one appears on a channel, an alert pops up. This happens, on average, 8 times on my way to and from work. It's a virtually unending playlist of my favorite artists. And when it does end, I can browse the other channels easily and find something else to listen to. I don't know much about the Blues, but I listen to Pat St. John every day because he does, and he creates playlists that seems to blend in well with one another. So if I find myself on that rare occasion with nothing to listen to, I tune in to him, and enjoy myself further.
Now let's think about that for a second, in the context of the iPod argument. 30 artists. Say, they have 4 albums apiece. In order to assemble a playlist of all of their music, I'd have to purchase about 1,200 songs (at 10 songs/album). For $399, I have access to their entire collections, as well as thousands more - of which music experts from each genre hand-select individual songs to add to a playlist.
And no. I haven't heard a single commercial in 3 years. If you use the technology correctly, you never will. So if you don't like listening to the latest commercial pumping "Ernie Boch Jr on the Automile" do yourself a favor and plop down $500 on a new lifetime sub + receiver, and never think about it again.
Otherwise, if you're interested in listening to good local content (the only thing SatRad is missing, IMHO), turn the dial, have a good time - I have no issues with people who want to listen to local content on the radio. It's just not for me.
Sirius XM Radio isn't for everyone, but it's certainly a great product - much better than you're describing it. Hell it's even better than I'M describing it. It's phenomenal, in fact. There's always something for everyone, and it rarely loses reception, even on long cross-country drives.
Just one man's opinion. No lies. Just facts.