USA Today's Matt Krantz doesn't like SIRI or XMSR as stock picks. He never has. His reasons? Too speculative. Without any profits he feels they're too difficult to value.
He concludes with this statement:
"The fact that investors willingly put their heads in the guillotine with these kinds of stocks amazes me. When will they finally learn that over-hyped shares of small companies that are losing money are a sucker's bet?"
What do you investors think? You're the ones who have lost the most (XMSR down 53% and SIRI down 39% this year).
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USA Today]
/agree damn those people who got into google at 80 bucks a share, or dell at 10 bucks or microsoft at 11 when they all first started and went public....
i mean you would only be billionares now.
I agree with him. XM was a sucker's bet, now I think it has a reasonable margin of saftey.
According to M*, XM's fair value is around $12/share and Sirius is worth $1.5/share. Consideirng the disparcity, I have decided to Short Sirius & go Long XM--so if both go bankrupt, I break even...if XM & Siri's marketcap correct with respect to each other, as I expect they should, I will make $$Bank$$
Westfall
I would say short XM and long SIRI, you have a better shot at being positive. Dont listen to idiots like Jon Jacoby who would have you believe its a short term shift from XM to SIRI. Its quite clear that Americans are more likely to buy SIRI content than XM's, and its not likely to shift with NASCAR coming in 2007. Remember this is America in general despite our feelings on buying a radio to listen to cars go in an extended left turn...
I agree to a point. I recently purchased 2000 shares of XM at an average cost of $11.45 and sold them today for $13.10. I may purchase a few more when XM goes back down to about $11.25. I see the range for this stock at around $12.50 for the year, and it won't go up above $15 until they get their act sorted out.
I agree with some of his statements as well.
If XM and Sirius spent less time fighting each other and more time trying to earn a profit, then they wouldn't be sitting here 5 years after they started and STILL not be in the green.
If they had spent their money and energy on OEM installs instead of content wars (which they could have done AFTER they were established in the OEM market, and AFTER they were in positive cash flow), then it would be a whole different story today.
I put the blame solely on Sirius's ex-CEO Clayton. He insisted on paying exhorbitant fees for content that he clearly could've gotten cheaper. Imagine if Stern costed $250 mil instead of $500 (which still would have been better than his terrestrial deal). Imagine if MLB costed $350 mil instead of $650.
Imagine if all the car manufacturers literally chased down XM and SIRI and begged them to put their units in their cars 3 years ago. People were FED UP with terrestrial back then (they still are), and would've been buying SDARS in droves had they been STANDARD EQUIPMENT in ALL cars by 2004.
Now it's too late. They blew it. Now there's too much competition, with MP3 players, internet radio, video, etc. Now it's too late to make SDARS standard equipment. They blew their chance.
It's all about the long term now. Or if you're lucky to sneak in at the right moment for a short.
just because you don't like something doesn't mean you need to bash it. Shit, most bashers can't afford a sub, but have no problem going negative on everything they do. Matt Krantz? who the hell is he anyway, are we supposed to listen to this idiot? Do your due dil. and reap the rewards, ain't got nothing nice to say? then keep your trap shut already... Matt Krantz? gimmee a break!!
well I made 8grand on Siri a few years back..... would I invest now? Maybe buy/hold for the long term.... but it would be unlikely.... and XM? I wouldn't touch it.
"Imagine if Stern costed $250 mil instead of $500 (which still would have been better than his terrestrial deal). Imagine if MLB costed $350 mil instead of $650."
Imagine if gas "costed" a nickel, Imagine That milk "costed" a dollar. You can "imagine" anything you want but if that is what they cost, you cant wish to pay half that. Unless your point is that SATRAD could have paid half and still got Stern and MLB, then I think you are DREAMING. But you can "imagine" anything with out facts.
I've been fighting with investors on a forum called superiorinvestor.net. The people on this site have never tried out satrad and yet they are convinced there is no content and the content they do have is a bunch of 'niche' markets. check it out, it will take 10 seconds to piss you off.
The only people that have made money are in Wall Street, Howard and the company executives. It has been a hoax.
Main street got taken for a ride. Now the gravy train is over unless someone shows results..and soon.
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