Sirius announces first quarter 2008 results; loss narrows
Monday, May 12, 2008 at 4:07 PM
Tags: Earnings, SIRI, Sirius
Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. today announced its earnings and financial results for the first-quarter of 2008.
Sirius ended the quarter with 8,644,319 subscribers, up 31% from the first quarter of last year. Retail subscribers increased 10% year over year to 4,643,215, while OEM subscribers increased 72% year over year to 3,986,818. During the quarter, Sirius added 322,534 net subscribers - achieving a 52% share of satellite radio net subscriber additions.
Total revenue for 1Q08 increased to $270.4 million, up 33% from 1Q07 total revenue of $204 million.
Sirius reported a net loss of $104.1 million, or $0.07 per share, up 28% from the same period last year. The adjusted loss from operations was $39.5 million, an improvement of 53% compared to the adjusted loss from operations of $84 million last year.
Average monthly revenue per subscriber (ARPU) was $10.42 in first quarter 2008 as compared with $10.46 for first quarter 2007. First quarter 2008 average all-in customer churn was 2.7%. SAC per gross subscriber addition was $91 in first quarter 2008, an improvement over first quarter 2007's SAC per gross subscriber addition of $101.
Full financials after the jump...
SIRIUS SATELLITE RADIO INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES
SUBSCRIBER DATA, METRICS
AND OTHER NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES
(Dollars in thousands, unless otherwise stated)
Subscriber Data:
For the Three Months
Ended March 31,
2008 2007
Beginning subscribers 8,321,785 6,024,555
Net additions 322,534 556,490
Ending subscribers 8,644,319 6,581,045
Retail 4,643,215 4,234,804
OEM 3,986,818 2,323,683
Hertz 14,286 22,558
Ending subscribers 8,644,319 6,581,045
Retail 2,506 192,978
OEM 321,186 364,674
Hertz (1,158) (1,162)
Net additions 322,534 556,490
Metrics:
For the Three Months
Ended March 31,
2008 2007
Gross subscriber additions 1,003,422 988,458
Deactivated subscribers 680,888 431,968
Average monthly churn (1)(6) 2.7% 2.3%
SAC per gross subscriber
addition (3)(6) $91 $101
Customer service and billing
expenses per average
subscriber (3)(6) $1.05 $1.15
Total revenue $270,350 $204,037
Free cash flow (4)(6) $(186,535) $(146,715)
Monthly ARPU:
Average monthly subscriber
revenue per subscriber
before the effects of
Hertz subscribers and rebates $10.09 $10.30
Effects of Hertz subscribers 0.04 0.04
Effects of rebates (0.04) (0.24)
Average monthly subscriber
revenue per subscriber 10.09 10.10
Average monthly net
advertising revenue per
subscriber 0.33 0.36
ARPU $10.42 $10.46
SIRIUS SATELLITE RADIO INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES
SUBSCRIBER DATA, METRICS
AND OTHER NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES - CONTINUED
(Dollars in thousands, unless otherwise stated)
Adjusted Loss from Operations:
For the Three Months
Ended March 31,
2008 2007
Net loss $(104,118) $(144,745)
Depreciation 26,906 26,786
Stock-based compensation 22,262 24,260
Other non operating expense 14,950 9,145
Income tax expense 543 555
Adjusted loss from
operations (7) $(39,457) $(83,999)
Adjusted Net Loss:
For the Three Months
Ended March 31,
2008 2007
Net loss $(104,118) $(144,745)
Stock-based compensation 22,262 24,260
Adjusted net loss $(81,856) $(120,485)
Net loss per share (basic
and diluted) (8) $(0.07) $(0.10)
Weighted average common
shares outstanding
(basic and diluted) 1,475,496 1,457,011
SIRIUS SATELLITE RADIO INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES
SUBSCRIBER DATA, METRICS
AND OTHER NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES - CONTINUED
(Dollars in thousands, unless otherwise stated)
Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations:
For the Three Months
Ended March 31,
2008 2007
Total revenue $270,350 $204,037
Operating expenses
(excludes depreciation and
stock-based compensation
shown separately below):
Satellite and transmission 7,025 7,330
Programming and content 58,903 57,063
Revenue share and royalties 42,320 27,134
Customer service and billing 26,646 21,654
Cost of equipment 7,588 6,458
Sales and marketing 33,227 35,352
Subscriber acquisition costs 89,810 98,237
General and administrative 36,780 23,403
Engineering, design and development 7,508 11,405
Depreciation 26,906 26,786
Stock-based compensation 22,262 24,260
Total operating expenses 358,975 339,082
Loss from operations (88,625) (135,045)
Other expense (14,950) (9,145)
Loss before income taxes (103,575) (144,190)
Income tax expense (543) (555)
Net loss $(104,118) $(144,745)
SIRIUS SATELLITE RADIO INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS
(In thousands, except per share amounts)
For the Three Months
Ended March 31,
2008 2007
Revenue:
Subscriber revenue, including
effects of rebates $255,640 $190,796
Advertising revenue, net of agency fees 8,408 6,721
Equipment revenue 6,063 4,671
Other revenue 239 1,849
Total revenue 270,350 204,037
Operating expenses (excludes
depreciation shown separately below) (1):
Cost of services:
Satellite and transmission 7,822 7,986
Programming and content 61,692 59,998
Revenue share and royalties 42,320 27,134
Customer service and billing 26,922 21,853
Cost of equipment 7,588 6,458
Sales and marketing 38,467 40,996
Subscriber acquisition costs 89,824 100,117
General and administrative 48,778 35,343
Engineering, design and development 8,656 12,411
Depreciation 26,906 26,786
Total operating expenses 358,975 339,082
Loss from operations (88,625) (135,045)
Other income (expense):
Interest and investment income 2,802 6,042
Interest expense, net of amounts
capitalized (17,675) (15,192)
Other (expense) income (77) 5
Total other expense (14,950) (9,145)
Loss before income taxes (103,575) (144,190)
Income tax expense (543) (555)
Net loss $(104,118) $(144,745)
Net loss per share (basic and diluted) $(0.07) $(0.10)
Weighted average common shares
outstanding (basic and diluted) 1,475,496 1,457,011
(1) Amounts related to stock-based
compensation included in other
operating expenses were as follows:
Satellite and transmission $797 $656
Programming and content 2,789 2,935
Customer service and billing 276 199
Sales and marketing 5,240 5,644
Subscriber acquisition costs 14 1,880
General and administrative 11,998 11,940
Engineering, design and development 1,148 1,006
Total stock-based compensation $22,262 $24,260
SIRIUS SATELLITE RADIO INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES
BALANCE SHEET DATA
(Dollars in thousands)
As of
March 31, 2008 December 31, 2007
(unaudited)
Cash, cash equivalents and
marketable securities $252,969 $439,289
Restricted investments 56,000 53,000
Working capital (741,218) (394,989)
Total assets 1,469,823 1,694,149
Total debt 1,282,743 1,314,418
Total liabilities 2,309,257 2,486,886
Accumulated deficit (4,503,090) (4,398,972)
Stockholders' deficit (839,434) (792,737)
SIRIUS SATELLITE RADIO INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF CASH FLOWS
(Dollars in thousands)
For the Three Months
Ended March 31,
2008 2007
Cash flows from operating activities:
Net loss $(104,118) (144,745)
Adjustments to reconcile net loss
to net cash used in operating
activities:
Depreciation 26,906 26,786
Non-cash interest expense 1,004 754
Provision for doubtful accounts 2,560 2,088
Gain on disposal of assets - (4)
Stock-based compensation 22,262 24,260
Deferred income taxes 543 555
Changes in operating assets and
liabilities:
Accounts receivable 18,765 6,639
Inventory 4,193 (473)
Receivables from distributors (9,988) (7,569)
Prepaid expenses and other current
assets 14,256 (9,173)
Other long-term assets 3,256 (23)
Accounts payable and accrued expenses (116,741) (47,811)
Accrued interest (11,885) (11,763)
Deferred revenue 14,712 21,731
Other long-term liabilities (5,017) 7,702
Net cash used in operating activities (139,292) (131,046)
Cash flows from investing activities:
Additions to property and equipment (39,225) (12,458)
Sales of property and equipment - 96
Purchases of restricted and other
investments (3,000) (310)
Sale of investments 5,000 -
Merger related costs (10,018) (2,901)
Sales of available-for-sale securities 8 10,850
Net cash used in investing
activities (47,235) (4,723)
Cash flows from financing activities:
Repayment of long-term borrowings (625) -
Proceeds from exercise of stock options 840 1,510
Net cash provided by financing
activities 215 1,510
Net decrease in cash and cash equivalents (186,312) (134,259)
Cash and cash equivalents at the
beginning of period 438,820 393,421
Cash and cash equivalents at the
end of period $252,508 $259,162
FOOTNOTES TO PRESS RELEASE AND TABLES FOR NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES
This press release, including the selected financial information above, includes the following non-GAAP financial measures: average monthly churn; SAC per gross subscriber addition; customer service and billing expenses per average subscriber; free cash flow; average monthly revenue per subscriber, or ARPU; adjusted loss from operations; and adjusted net loss. The definitions and usefulness of such non-GAAP financial measures are as follows (dollars in thousands, unless otherwise stated):
(1) SIRIUS defines average monthly churn as the number of deactivated
subscribers divided by average quarterly subscribers.
(2) SIRIUS defines SAC per gross subscriber addition as subscriber
acquisition costs, excluding stock-based compensation, and margins
from the direct sale of SIRIUS radios and accessories divided by the
number of gross subscriber additions for the period. SAC per gross
subscriber addition is calculated as follows:
For the Three Months
March 31,
2008 2007
Subscriber acquisition costs $89,824 $100,117
Less: stock-based compensation (14) (1,880)
Add: margin from direct sales of
SIRIUS radios and accessories 1,525 1,787
SAC $91,335 $100,024
Gross subscriber additions 1,003,422 988,458
SAC per gross subscriber addition $91 $101
(3) SIRIUS defines customer service and billing expenses per average
subscriber as total customer service and billing expenses, excluding
stock-based compensation, divided by the daily weighted average
number of subscribers for the period. Customer service and billing
expenses per average subscriber is calculated as follows:
For the Three Months
Ended March 31,
2008 2007
Customer service and billing expenses $26,922 $21,853
Less: stock-based compensation (276) (199)
Customer service and billing expenses,
as adjusted $26,646 $21,654
Daily weighted average number of
subscribers 8,446,343 6,295,282
Customer service and billing expenses,
as adjusted, per average subscriber $1.05 $1.15
(4) SIRIUS defines free cash flow as cash flow from operating activities,
capital expenditures, merger related costs and restricted and other
investment activity. Free cash flow is calculated as follows:
For the Three Months
Ended March 31,
2008 2007
Net cash used in operating activities $(139,292) $(131,046)
Additions to property and equipment (39,225) (12,458)
Merger related costs (10,018) (2,901)
Restricted and other investment
activity 2,000 (310)
Free cash flow $(186,535) $(146,715)
(5) SIRIUS defines ARPU as the total earned subscriber revenue and net
advertising revenue divided by the daily weighted average number
of subscribers for the period. ARPU is calculated as follows:
For the Three Months
Ended March 31,
2008 2007
Subscriber revenue $255,640 $190,796
Net advertising revenue 8,408 6,721
Total subscriber and net advertising
revenue $264,048 $197,517
Daily weighted average number
of subscribers 8,446,343 6,295,282
ARPU $10.42 $10.46
(6) SIRIUS believes average monthly churn; SAC per gross subscriber
addition; customer service and billing expenses per average
subscriber; free cash flow; and ARPU provide meaningful information
regarding operating performance and liquidity and are used for
internal management purposes; when publicly providing the business
outlook; as a means to evaluate period-to-period comparisons; and
to compare the company's performance to that of its competitors.
SIRIUS also believes that investors use current and projected metrics
to monitor performance of the business and make investment decisions.
SIRIUS believes the exclusion of stock-based compensation expense in
the calculations of SAC per gross subscriber addition and customer
service and billing expenses per average subscriber is useful given
the significant variation in expense that can result from changes in
the fair market value of SIRIUS common stock, the effect of which is
unrelated to the operational conditions that give rise to variations
in the components of subscriber acquisition costs and customer
service and billing expenses. Specifically, the exclusion of
stock-based compensation expense in the calculation of SAC per gross
subscriber addition is critical in being able to understand the
economic impact of the direct costs incurred to acquire a subscriber
and the effect over time as economies of scale are reached.
These non-GAAP financial measures are used in addition to and in
conjunction with results presented in accordance with GAAP. These
non-GAAP financial measures may be susceptible to varying
calculations; may not be comparable to other similarly titled
measures of other companies; and should not be considered in
isolation for, or superior to measures of financial performance
prepared in accordance with GAAP.
(7) SIRIUS refers to net loss before taxes; other income
(expense) -- including interest and investment income, interest
expense, equity in net loss of affiliate; depreciation; and
stock-based compensation expense as adjusted loss from operations.
Adjusted loss from operations is not a measure of financial
performance under GAAP. The company believes adjusted loss from
operations is a useful measure of its operating performance. The
company uses adjusted loss from operations for budgetary and planning
purposes; to assess the relative profitability and on-going
performance of consolidated operations; to compare performance from
period to period; and to compare performance to that of its
competitors. The company also believes adjusted loss from operations
is useful to investors to compare operating performance to the
performance of other communications, entertainment and media
companies. The company believes that investors use current and
projected adjusted loss from operations to estimate the current or
prospective enterprise value and make investment decisions.
Because the company funds and builds-out its satellite radio system
through the periodic raising and expenditure of large amounts of
capital, results of operations reflect significant charges for
interest and depreciation expense. The company believes adjusted loss
from operations provides useful information about the operating
performance of the business apart from the costs associated with the
capital structure and physical plant. The exclusion of interest
expense and depreciation is useful given fluctuations in interest
rates and significant variation in depreciation expense that can
result from the amount and timing of capital expenditures and
potential variations in estimated useful lives, all of which can vary
widely across different industries or among companies within the same
industry. The company believes the exclusion of taxes is appropriate
for comparability purposes as the tax positions of companies can vary
because of their differing abilities to take advantage of tax
benefits and because of the tax policies of the various jurisdictions
in which they operate. The company also believes the exclusion of
stock-based compensation expense is useful given the significant
variation in expense that can result from changes in the fair market
value of the company's common stock. Finally, the company believes
that the exclusion of equity in net loss of affiliate (SIRIUS Canada,
Inc.) is useful to assess the performance of its core consolidated
operations in the continental United States. To compensate for the
exclusion of taxes, other income (expense), depreciation, impairment
charges and stock-based compensation expense, the company separately
measures and budgets for these items.
There are material limitations associated with the use of adjusted
loss from operations in evaluating the company compared with net
loss, which reflects overall financial performance, including the
effects of taxes, other income (expense), depreciation, impairment
charges and stock-based compensation expense. The company uses
adjusted loss from operations to supplement GAAP results to provide
a more complete understanding of the factors and trends affecting the
business than GAAP results alone. Investors that wish to compare and
evaluate the operating results after giving effect for these costs,
should refer to net loss as disclosed in the unaudited consolidated
statements of operations. Since adjusted loss from operations is a
non-GAAP financial measure, the calculation of adjusted loss from
operations may be susceptible to varying calculations; may not be
comparable to other similarly titled measures of other companies;
and should not be considered in isolation, as a substitute for, or
superior to measures of financial performance in accordance with
GAAP.
(8) SIRIUS refers to adjusted net loss as net loss per share excluding
stock-based compensation expense. Adjusted net loss is not a measure
of financial performance under GAAP. The company believes adjusted
net loss is useful to investors to compare its operating performance
to the performance of other communications, entertainment and media
companies. The company also believes the exclusion of stock-based
compensation expense is useful given the significant variation in
expense that can result from changes in the fair market value of the
company's common stock.
There are material limitations associated with the use of adjusted
net loss in evaluating the company compared with net loss, which
reflects overall financial performance, including the effects of
stock-based compensation expense. The company uses adjusted net loss
to supplement GAAP results to provide a more complete understanding
of the factors and trends affecting the business than GAAP results
alone. Investors that wish to compare and evaluate the operating
results after giving effect for these costs, should refer to net loss
as disclosed in the unaudited consolidated financial statements of
operations. Since adjusted net loss is a non-GAAP financial measure,
the calculation of adjusted net loss may be susceptible to varying
calculations; may not be comparable to other similarly titled
measures of other companies; and should not be considered in
isolation, as a substitute for, or superior to measures of financial
performance prepared in accordance with GAAP.
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Comments
>>> Sirius added 322,534 net subscribers - achieving a 52% share of satellite radio net subscriber additions.
Uh, oh.
Posted by: Stack Pointer | May 12, 2008 4:28 PM
This all goes to show that if these two companies can merge and get the benefits of economics of scale that the merged company will do extremely well.
Posted by: Paul in FL | May 12, 2008 4:32 PM
This is terrible! BOTH companies should be ashamed of themselves. I had some hope that SIRI would do a little better but this is very, very disappointing.
Posted by: Pinball Wizard | May 12, 2008 4:35 PM
>>>>>Uh, oh.
Yeah, that 2% market share only cost them close to a billion dollars in programming costs (NFL included)
Posted by: MNXMFan | May 12, 2008 4:46 PM
Actually considering the state of limbo this company has been in because of this CRIMINAL 15 month merger delay by the FCC...I think Sirius is showing real signs of life.
The growth is there. With the BILLIONS in saved synergies the combined company should take off after the merger.
Posted by: regan | May 12, 2008 4:48 PM
XM's YOY growth is UP while Sirius is Down Big time....
this is the effect of the parkinglot subs churring out... I predicted this stuff a year and a half ago...
XM got more OEM Gross .... More total gross
Once again Sirius does not tell us the Retail Gross or the OEM Gross
Posted by: jeff | May 12, 2008 4:53 PM
Hey dumbfucks
Sirius
"Total revenue for 1Q08 increased to $270.4 million, up 33% from 1Q07 total revenue of $204 million.
Sirius reported a net loss of $104.1 million, "
__________________________________________
XM
"Revenue for 1Q08 rose to $308 million, a nearly 17% increase over 1Q07 revenue of $264 million.
Adjusted operating loss was $30.7 million"
______________________
Now which company looks worse based on those numbers?
Oh yeah praise the subscriber numbers. Alll those non paying subs love Howard 100.
Posted by: scott | May 12, 2008 4:57 PM
Wow Jeff...that is amazing...have you predicted anything else as spectular as that...I am speechless to be in your presence....
Posted by: Anonymous Coward | May 12, 2008 4:59 PM
"Yeah, that 2% market share only cost them close to a billion dollars in programming costs (NFL included)"
CONTENT IS KING. Oh wait.
Posted by: scott | May 12, 2008 4:59 PM
Some odd laughter after the conference call. Very odd. Was somebody laughing at us investors?
Posted by: Moe Greene | May 12, 2008 5:20 PM
AC said: "Wow Jeff...that is amazing...have you predicted anything else as spectular as that...I am speechless to be in your presence...."
Hey AC, I won't be speechless. Jeff got it right. 2.7% isn't good & not only that it is getting worse.....2.4% last year.
.....also that SAC seems to be terrible. It brings to mind 4th. quarter 2006 when all of the TV ads were running. Does anyone remember what the SIRI SAC was then? I'm to lazy to look it up.
Posted by: Pinball Wizard | May 12, 2008 5:31 PM
I Keep hearing that Siri bases their growth of subs on cars sitting in parking lots. Wheres the source for this I want to read mroe into that.
Also what if the FCC stalls this thing until election time? I know its a long way down teh line but they could easily do it. I mean Sirius counter sewing would just hurt the company more. it would drain more money and probably just be dragged on for years. Even more so, sewing the govt isn;t a very easy thing to do. How would you prove anything? From their perspective they are just doing their job. The 160 day stop clock (or whatever it was) isnt really a binding thing. Bottom line is it states in the original agreement they would never merge. So they would prob lose that battle as well.
I think they need to start marketing on a grassroots level. Very cheap, and effective...hit up the college campuses. I see redbull, zippos, and even bible salesmen on our campus. I mean just have cheap radios for sale to get them hooked.
They need a i-tunes type service for generating more money, as well as a online marketplace accessible through the portables (they could run on wifi). Just like cell phone users buy ringtones, they could sell some sort of content. Anything and everything will help the sitation right now. At this rate it looks as if the merger is either not gonna happen or to far down the line to wait on.
Posted by: dave | May 12, 2008 5:32 PM
>> I Keep hearing that Siri bases their growth of subs on cars sitting in parking lots. Wheres the source for this I want to read mroe into that.
The only real source is the 10Q where SIRI says a subscriber is counted as cars roll off the assembly line [even though the car may not be sold for months after that].
Was there something else you wanted to know?
Posted by: Stack Pointer | May 12, 2008 5:44 PM
What exactly is a non-paying sub? The idiots that keep bashing this don't realize this is cash on hand, regardless of whether there is a person driving the car or if its on the lot. The automaker is PAYING Sirius for that sub, thats better than waiting to capitalize on the income.
Oh again, why are we pitting XM against SIRI? Thats a rookie mistake. Its like comparing Exxon and Mobile before they combined (of course they were both wildly profitable).
If you really want to analyze head to head:
---
SIRI: Total revenue for 1Q08 increased to $270.4 million
(up 33% from 1Q07 total revenue of $204 million)
XMSR: Revenue for 1Q08 rose to $308 million
(nearly 17% increase over 1Q07 revenue of $264 million)
Winner: SIRI, however, this is not a clear win as it is in line with expectations; you can call it a win because XMSR missed the street concensus.
---
SIRI: Net loss of $104.1 million
($0.07 per share, up 28% from the same period last year with adjusted loss from operations was $39.5 million, an improvement of 53% compared to the adjusted loss from operations of $84 million last year)
XMSR: Net loss for 1Q08 was $129 million
($0.42 cents a share, compared to a year-ago net loss of $122 million, or 40 cents a share. Analysts were expecting a loss of 39 cents a share on revenue of $313 million, according to Thomson Reuters)
Winner: Neither, but Sirius is doing better in raw numbers despite being 1 year late to the market
---
There is the short of it. The beauty is in the merger. If XM does go bankrupt, Clear Channel will soak them up for zilch ala Jamie Dimon w/ Bear.
Posted by: Pack Stointer | May 12, 2008 5:44 PM
Dave said: "I think they need to start marketing on a grassroots level. Very cheap, and effective...hit up the college campuses. I see redbull, zippos, and even bible salesmen on our campus. I mean just have cheap radios for sale to get them hooked."
Good thinking! IMO Dave has more wisdom than all of XMSR & SIRI management added together.
Posted by: Pinball Wizard | May 12, 2008 5:46 PM
A couple of interesting points in the details:
"(1) SIRIUS defines average monthly churn as the number of deactivated
subscribers divided by average quarterly subscribers."
The key word is DEACTIVATED. For OEM installs, the buyer gets a free subscription for 3 or 6 months. After the free subscription, the unit is NOT deactivated. I can atest to this, as my wife gets Sirius well over a year after buying her Nissan. Never ever paid a dime for it, and never will. They count non-money generating units. Scam.
Virtually all growth came on the OEM side. Cars aren't selling, by the way.
"Retail 2,506 192,978
OEM 321,186 364,674
Hertz (1,158) (1,162)
Net additions 322,534 556,490
These numbers are in thousands, by the way. Retail is nonexistent. Any units are being put in cars.
Revenue per subscriber actually decreased 4-5% year over year.
The fact that Sirius counts units, rather than warm bodies is too well documented to be argued with. Ryan has shown this many times.
It's smoke and mirrors, folks
Posted by: waitwhat | May 12, 2008 5:58 PM
Why is Dave obsessed over the idea of sewing? This is not an arts and crafts blog, I do not see the connection.
Posted by: Z | May 12, 2008 6:01 PM
Hey retards who are bashing:
"Compared with a year ago, first quarter 2008 subscribers grew 31%, revenue grew 33%, while cash operating costs only grew 8%, leading to a 55% decline in our adjusted loss from operations."
"SAC per gross subscriber addition decreased 10% to $91 for the first quarter of 2008 from $101 for the first quarter of 2007. "
Operating leverage is what matters. When car sales turn back up and the merger has a decisions then they start growing faster again.
Churn increasing is a function of bigger base with less adds so unless you and everyone else in America stops buying cars then the business model is in fine shape when it upticks.
Posted by: SiriusIntentions | May 12, 2008 6:02 PM
Hey waitwhat,
The accountants are using a bigger subsriber base to calculate revenue so actually revenue per sub is higher than before
(Revenue from paying subs)/(Number of subs including parkign lot subs)
simple math ftw.
Posted by: SiriusIntentions | May 12, 2008 6:07 PM
Hey waitwhat,
The accountants are using a bigger subsriber base to calculate revenue so actually revenue per sub is higher than before
(Revenue from paying subs)/(Number of subs including parkign lot subs)
simple math ftw.
Posted by: SiriusIntentions | May 12, 2008 6:08 PM
Pinball Wizard: that's a very good SAC for Sirius... their record low in that metric was $90 for Q407.
Tracking on a trailing 12-month basis (thus eliminating most/all seasonal effects), the decline in carrying costs per subscriber-quarter continues ($41.11, down from $42.53 for the 12 months ending December 07 and $57.02 for the 12 months ending March 07). OTOH, non-equipment/non-other revenue per subscriber quarter also declined over those periods ($31.38 for 12months ending March 08, $31.41 for 12months ending December 07, and $32.64 for 12months ending March 07). Encouragingly, the difference between those figures is narrowing rather quickly ($9.73 vs. $11.12 vs. $24.38). Note that carrying costs per subscriber expenses churn (effectively we're talking about depreciating the value of the subscriber base), so the promo churn-out hurts those numbers. When you consider that the trend for Sirius's churn for the past few years (likely due to OEM schedules) has been for it to crest in the Q4-Q1 period, and baking in more modest churn rates in the 2.5% range, carrying costs per subscriber-quarter I figure will be in the territory of (on a trailing 12-month basis) $35-$38.
XM's performance was also encouraging, though slightly less so. Cost controls are starting to manifest themselves down there (but then again, XM is located in the District, where the idea of cost control is foreign), but nowhere to the degree that Mel has them in force at Sirius.
TTM carrying costs were (March 08, December 07, March 07, respectively) $46.17, $46.71, and $44.70. Comparative revenues were $32.13, $32.23, and $32.19. Negative margins per subscriber-quarter were: $14.04, $14.48, $12.51. The question is whether this new cost-control regime will last or will XM's spendthrift ways return.
Posted by: leviramsey | May 12, 2008 6:09 PM
Hey bashers, if sirius/xm sucks so bad, why are you here?
Are you SIRIUS/XM Daytraders?
Posted by: Anonymous Coward | May 12, 2008 6:10 PM
Hey retards who are bashing:
If SIRIUS and or XMSR suck so bad, what are you doing posting here and reading? Why do you care?
Oh, you're all daytraders.
Posted by: Anonymous Coward | May 12, 2008 6:12 PM
Do you have to be a retard to bash...or can you just have an opposing view....
The definition of bashing is a viewpoint that does not agree with yours...LMAO
I love it when the "know it alls" get on here ...Obviously few here care about making an ass out of themselves by posting wild ideas and their summations of what the quarterly report really means... :)
Uhhh...thanks for telling me what it said....duh...?
Posted by: Anonymous Coward | May 12, 2008 6:55 PM
//Hey dumbfucks
Sirius
"Total revenue for 1Q08 increased to $270.4 million, up 33% from 1Q07 total revenue of $204 million.
Sirius reported a net loss of $104.1 million, "
__________________________________________
XM
"Revenue for 1Q08 rose to $308 million, a nearly 17% increase over 1Q07 revenue of $264 million.
Adjusted operating loss was $30.7 million"
//
UUUMMMMMMMMM . . . if you are going to compare numbers, maybe you should compare teh same number for both.
Sirius " . . .adjusted loss from operations was $39.5 million"
That means that Sirius only lost $8.8 million more on an operating basis (i.e. actual costs to run the business) than XM did. Regardless of which company you hope, wish, or think did better, compare the numbers fairly.
Posted by: Roger | May 12, 2008 7:04 PM
Sirius is a company in trouble. The growth has cratered. That they only added 322K when counting unsold cars as subscribers and having invested 3/4 Billion in Stern (which is solely a retail draw) is a cause for great concern.
Unfortunately, due to this insane merger, SIRI's problems now infect both companies.
Posted by: Stack Pointer | May 12, 2008 7:05 PM
I just want to be able to have satrad, one way or the other.
Posted by: TacoKid | May 12, 2008 7:08 PM
I love how Xm bashers, forget how Sirius is also sinking like the titanic.
obey fez!
Posted by: 0.0 | May 12, 2008 7:12 PM
The fact that Sirius counts units, rather than warm bodies is too well documented to be argued with.
That only worked once the first time after that it does not count because that count remains about the same.
If cars stopped selling and they kept making them with nobody buying it would be a problem.
I think we can expect good car sales for smaller ones as long as Gas stays high.
Posted by: Anonymous Coward | May 12, 2008 7:49 PM
hu...sirius management doesn't suck as bad as XM... they suck worse... who'd uh thunk it..
Posted by: Anonymous Coward | May 12, 2008 8:09 PM
For all of you, when in High school were taught to disrespect and make fun of communism, remember that China and Russia are kicking America's ass while the FCC sits with their thumb in theirs, neglecting their duty.
The war.... Katrina.... Gitmo..... Wiretaps ..... The FCC
Maybe it ain't such a bad idea since America is broken?
Posted by: Plowboy | May 12, 2008 8:10 PM
America is broken?
I knew that.
Posted by: Anonymous Coward | May 12, 2008 9:21 PM
Stackpointer states- "Sirius is a company in trouble. The growth has cratered. That they only added 322K when counting unsold cars as subscribers and having invested 3/4 Billion in Stern (which is solely a retail draw) is a cause for great concern."
Now we may be able to debate the issue of whether growth has cratered, but what in the world makes you state that Stern is SOLELY a retail draw? What possibly could you base that on? Is it the study that says that Stern listeners don't purchase cars?
What possibly would make you say such a stupid thing? I guess, if what you were saying, is Stern is only a draw for new subscribers at retail where there is a choice, is one thing- but that is true for ALL CONTENT- just like MLB (which cost more than Stern) the NFL, the NHL, the NBA, Oprah, Opie and Anthony, etc. etc. etc.....But all of this content plays a role at OEM too when purchasers of new cars decide whether to renew. But again, I forget, you have the study which shows that Stern fans don't purchase new cars....
Posted by: rjr | May 12, 2008 9:40 PM
How the fuck are China and Russia kicking our ass?? Dumbest Post in the history of blogging...While I agree with you that the FCC blows and the other disasters you mentioned were not exactly the US Government's shining moment - communism is hardly the answer.
Ask Boris or Xiang Li how their respective stock portfolio's are faring? Or better yet how they enjoy uncensored internet blogging sites or social networks, much less satellite radio. Oh, wait, their government dictates to them what they can consume and when.
Go move to North Korea you retard.
Posted by: Anonymous Coward | May 12, 2008 9:41 PM
OK I went back and looked up what was going on with SAC in 1996. As I remember it all of Wall St. was unhappy with the SAC back then for both companies.
XMSR was $64
SIRI was $114
So SIRI has improved some and XMSR has gotten a little worse......but if people are going to be upset by numbers like $64 then what we are seeing now for these companies is just too high to please Wall St.
These guys are looking for magic in the merger to save them but I don't see it anytime soon unless they are prepared to take drastic actions. I remember only too well the Pennsylvania/New York Central railroad merger.
Posted by: Pinball Wizard | May 12, 2008 9:46 PM
>>> Now we may be able to debate the issue of whether growth has cratered, but what in the world makes you state that Stern is SOLELY a retail draw? What possibly could you base that on? Is it the study that says that Stern listeners don't purchase cars?
>>> What possibly would make you say such a stupid thing?
I'll admit it was a stupid thing to say if you can find me someone who bought a Chrysler instead of a Honda solely to be able to get Stern on the satellite radio.
People don't choose cars based on the content offered by the satellite radio installed in the car.
Posted by: Stack Pointer | May 12, 2008 9:56 PM
>>> just like MLB (which cost more than Stern)
Wrong again, dumbass. MLB is
Posted by: Stack Pointer | May 12, 2008 9:58 PM
Stackpointer- "I'll admit it was a stupid thing to say if you can find me someone who bought a Chrysler instead of a Honda solely to be able to get Stern on the satellite radio."
Ok, but you show me someone who bought a Honda instead of a Ford because of MLB first. Its a stupid point. Just admit it! However, I'm certain you will agree there are millions of subscribers to Sirius who kept their radios active after the trial period because of content such as Stern or MLB.
By the way- I see your last message got cut off- here are the facts stack- MLB cost XM $650 million. Stern's contract was about $80 million a year over five years....less than $650 million.
Posted by: rjr | May 12, 2008 10:10 PM
>>> Ok, but you show me someone who bought a Honda instead of a Ford because of MLB first. Its a stupid point.
>>>Just admit it! However, I'm certain you will agree there are millions of subscribers to Sirius who kept their radios active after the trial period because of content such as Stern or MLB.
The point is that Stern was a marketing gimmick targeted at getting retail subscribers. If one put a "value" on Stern as a content item, it would be a small fraction of the $750M over 5 years. MLB, OTOH, is almost totally about content -- thousands of hours/year of content at cost of maybe $4,000/hour. Still, probably too much -- but essential as a content item to give XM sports superiority. Stern was largely a marketing gimmick, and as we now see, one that failed. (No doubt, as it has turned out, XM overpaid for MLB, as well; just not to the extent the Stern deal was a bad deal).
>>> By the way- I see your last message got cut off- here are the facts stack- MLB cost XM $650 million. Stern's contract was about $80 million a year over five years....less than $650 million.
MLB cost 650M for 11 years, or $59M/year. Stern's 5 year deal was for over $700M, close to $750M, in stock and cash -- or about $150M/year. I believe that's what I said on both counts.
Posted by: Stack Pointer | May 12, 2008 11:33 PM
"Stern was largely a marketing gimmick, and as we now see, one that failed."
Well, Sirius has much deeper tracks/cuts on the music stations. That can't be disproven can it. :-)
Posted by: tom c. | May 12, 2008 11:55 PM
"Why is Dave obsessed over the idea of sewing? This is not an arts and crafts blog, I do not see the connection"
Well i dont know if it was a joke or if he was serious but those were his own words when he was asked what if the fcc does not approve the merger...but nonetheless ur right not to dwell on it...Just raising the point of his shity positions if this doesnt go through...dont be such a cum rag either when you reply to a comment.
Also its a shame that these two companies took such a long time getting these car deals set up and now when the time is finally here to bank on 2008 car sales they cant cause of the overall car industry doing shitty. Believe it was GE who recently reported an all time low in sales. Im sure others are suffering the same. With rising gas prices its just gonna get worse.
Posted by: dave | May 13, 2008 1:30 AM
Once again Sirius shows it is paying WAY TOO MUCH and getting WAY TOO LITTLE in return. Just look at the corporate management salaries!
Posted by: Anonymous Coward | May 13, 2008 8:10 AM
RJR said:
>>>MLB cost XM $650 million. Stern's contract was about $80 million a year over five years....less than $650 million.
RJR, please don't see this post for anything more than just a factual correction...
Your amount for Stern is quite a bit too low... the amount is based on what is being expensed and charged to shareholders -- not the cash amount -- but the cash and shares... the total so far is $697,713,000 to date.
You start with the cash, which is the $390 million base - then add in the 2005 stock bonus, which was "valued at" and expensed at $224.8 million (from their 10-Q); and then add in the 2006 bonus, which was "valued at" $82.9 million (from the S-3 filing). That brings the total to just under $700 million. But this total doesn't include any revenue share, which Stern was reportedly supposed to be entitled to at some point. I don't know if Stern has reached that point, so I will leave the cost at $700 million over 5 years -- which comes to an average of approximately $140 million per year that would be charged to shareholders..
As Stack pointed out... the MLB deal is a $650 million 11-year deal, which comes to $59 million per year being charged to shareholders. This amount is significantly less than what Sirius pays Stern.
---
Posted by: homer985 | May 13, 2008 9:02 AM
Stern took Sirius from a second rate satrad company to a top tier satrad company that is beating XM across the spectrum and is now taking over XM. Haha.
In the meantime you pests and Xm fans keep trying to discredit his salary. MLB hasn't done shit for XM. Nobody cares about fucking baseball anymore and certainly nobody signs up for satrad to get it. Meantime Sirius is the ONLY place you can get Howard. I hink that alone makes Sirius the best deal, and I am holding a few thousand shares, becasue Mel has never lost money for me before.
Posted by: Anonymous Coward | May 13, 2008 9:18 AM
"When car sales turn back up and the merger has a decisions then they start growing faster again."
"Churn increasing is a function of bigger base with less adds so unless you and everyone else in America stops buying cars then the business model is in fine shape when it upticks."
Car sales turn back up? Economy upticks again? Give me a break. The days of cheap energy are behind us. Next year, today's economy and energy prices will look like the good old days.
As people struggle to pay for food and fuel optional spending on things like satellite radio will be dropped. The future does not look good for either of these companies - merged or not. Enjoy satellite radio while it lasts. Like with the US economy, borrow and spend cannot go on forever.
ST
Posted by: ShastaTodd | May 13, 2008 9:31 AM
SIRI's numbers are nothing to sneeze at. Both these companies ARE improving, but it's like arguing which side of a ship sinks first. Nobody cares because it's the same ship.
They almost need to merge at this point.
...........................................
"Meantime Sirius is the ONLY place you can get Howard."
Try again noob. Ever hear of the internet?
Posted by: Anonymous Coward | May 13, 2008 11:07 AM
Anonymous Coward said:
>>>Nobody cares about fucking baseball anymore
FWIW, MLB continues to set attendance records each year. 2007 had the highest game attendance ever -- 4th year in a row that a record was set... and 2008 is off to a similar start.
Posted by: homer985 | May 13, 2008 11:08 AM
"Anonymous Coward said:
>>>Nobody cares about fucking baseball anymore"
How about : Nobody ever cared about NFL on the radio.
Posted by: scott | May 13, 2008 11:49 AM
I believe MLB has several hundred million more fans than Howard. Check the gate receipts and TV ratings. Fanboy idiot.
Posted by: pfreak | May 13, 2008 12:33 PM
Ok, ok....I stand corrected on the cost of Stern vs. MLB. Stern was initially sold as costing $80 million a year. When you put in the stock he was awarded (as bonus mostly, I believe) it does get quite a bit more expensive.
However, I still believe Stern, like all of the other content (including MLB) plays a LARGE role in customers signing up for sat. radio after their trial period ends at OEM. To suggest otherwise just doesn't make sense to me. As Stern remains the single most listened to channel on either XM or Sirius, the fact that he is attractive to OEM customers when they decide whether to sign up or not would seem clear.
Posted by: rjr | May 13, 2008 3:23 PM
"("Anonymous Coward said:
>>>Nobody cares about fucking baseball anymore"
How about : Nobody ever cared about NFL on the radio.")"
As a die-hard NFL fan, even I agree. I have yet to listen to *one* NFL game on Sirius.
Now the NFL talk channel OTOH, is fantastic. They should have paid for just that.
And don't get started on NASCAR. NASCAR has a lower draw than the NFL, which is why XM let it go. Race attendance has been down three years straight, and ever since the "car of tomorrow" showed up, die-hard fans have been upset that it spoiled the americana of the sport.
Posted by: Anonymous Coward | May 13, 2008 4:20 PM